Has Elon suddenly grown a conscience?

Stick with me. I haven’t lost my mind.

What precipitated that headline is news that Elon Musk has – finally – moved to block Russia’s use of Starlink technology in its war against Ukraine. His decision apparently came after Russian drones equipped with Starlink antennas struck a civilian passenger train in northern Ukraine near Kharkiv in late January. One train car was hit by a Russian drone, and three others hit close to the train, apparently in an attempt to derail it. Five people were killed with an unknown number of wounded. There were 155 civilians traveling on the train at the time of the strike.

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s defense minister, contacted Starlink after the train strike and asked the company to find a way to disable the technology so that Russia cannot use Starlink to guide its drones in attacks on Ukraine. In the past, Russia has used the excuse that many of its drones that have struck civilian structures such as apartment buildings and businesses in Ukraine missed their military targets by mistake. Ukraine’s defense minister pointed out to executives from Space-X that Russia’s Starlink-guided drones hit a moving train filled with civilians, so that had to be Russia’s target.

On February 1, Musk posted on X, “Looks like the steps we took to stop the unauthorized use of Starlink by Russia have worked. Let us know if more needs to be done.” Musk had apparently ordered that Starlink terminals operated by Russians be disabled by restricting use of the technology using geo-fencing and registration tools that block terminals not registered with Starlink. Russia has captured some Starlink terminals and antennas from Ukrainian forces and acquired contraband Starlink sets on the black market.

Starlink has been an essential battlefield tool for Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Space-X donated about 3,500 terminals to Ukraine early in the war. After that, Starlink terminals and antennas were paid for by USAID, and then the Pentagon picked up the funding for both the terminals and the monthly fees to operate them. Poland and other NATO countries have pitched in with funding for Ukraine’s Starlink access. Poland remains one of the largest funders for Ukraine’s Starlink services, paying the subscription fees for more than 20,000 terminals it provided.

Ukraine uses the technology for communications between rear areas and the front lines and has employed Starlink for its own surveillance and attack drones, as well as some remote-controlled resupply vehicles on the ground. Starlink-connected drones with video have been used by Ukraine to adjust artillery. When Russia began using pirated Starlink technology, Ukraine pleaded with Space-X to find a way to block Russia’s use of its terminals and antennas.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that armed Russian drones cost about $500 to $800 to build, and the Starlink connections and equipment cost another $300 to $500, according to Ukrainian estimates. Starlink-connected drones are much more difficult to jam by Ukraine because they are satellite linked. Russia has been using Starlink-connected drones across the entire 600-mile front line of the war. Russia has also been bombarding Kyiv and other Ukrainian population centers using Starlink-connected drones. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in late January that Russian BM-35 strike drones equipped with Starlink had a 500-kilometer range, making them capable of hitting targets all the way from the Russian border to areas in eastern Ukraine near the Polish border.

The BM-35 Russian strike drone looks like this illustration from ISW:

It is easy to see how dangerous Russian access to Starlink became in the war.

That fact became evident not long after Musk ordered the denial of Russian access to Starlink. The effect on frontline Russian forces has been “catastrophic,” according to sources quoted by Forbes. Ukrainian sources told Forbes that “All command and control of the [Russian] troops has collapsed. Assault operations have been halted in many areas.” This has enabled Ukraine to move to bolster its defenses around Pokrovsk, because Russian drones using Starlink can no longer target Ukrainian vehicles resupplying troops along the front lines. Reports from Ukraine say that its forces have made gains in the south near Kherson because of the blockage of Russia’s access to Starlink.

The New York Times reports that Russian forces have been “scrambling” to replace Starlink. Russia does not have its own equivalent technology, leaving its military to fall back on “ground internet, fiber-optic cables, Wi-Fi bridges and extenders that forces used before relying on Starlink,” according to the Times.

Ukraine has had its own problems since the move by Starlink. Each terminal and antenna is registered separately with Starlink, sort of like our cable connections are registered and billed separately. You must have an account for the equipment to work. Ukraine quickly came up with a list of its authorized terminals and Starlink accounts, which Space-X added to what is now called the “white list” of accounts, but some Ukrainian devices have not been registered yet. Russian accounts and terminals have been dubbed “black” and are barred from use by Space-X.

The modern battlefield has become hugely reliant on technology. Advances in night-vision and satellite surveillance have changed everything for forces on the ground, which used to be “blind” at night and reliant on line-of-sight reconnaissance for movement of units. Satellite communications technology like Starlink kicked the entire military calculus of warfare up about ten notches. The U.S. military has had soldiers in Ukraine studying Ukraine’s drone manufacturing and tactics. It’s amazing to contemplate, but the U.S. is currently behind Ukraine in supply and use of battlefield drones, although the Pentagon is scrambling – there’s that word again – to catch up.

Meanwhile, both Russia and China are planning their own Space-X-style systems of low-orbit satellites, so they can catch up to what will surely be a mandatory system to fight the next war. They are behind for now, but within the next five to ten years, both countries are expected to field versions of their own satellite communications networks for military and civilian use.

I guess it will remain a mystery why Elon Musk did not bar Russian use of Starlink technology right from the start, since the entire system belongs to him, and he is the one who makes all the decisions about how Starlink is used and by whom.

But he’s done it now. Ukraine is breathing a huge sigh of relief. The Russian drones that attack front line troops and population centers will be less accurate from now on thanks to Elon Musk, who appears to have somehow come by – however imperfectly and probably temporarily – an actual conscience.