If you thought my take on the likely effects of the Trump verdict was a little too rosy...
Chief NYT skeptic Nate Cohn took the numbers a step further: “Searching for Clues in the Polls About a Trump Conviction” is the rather dull headline on a story that’s not dull at all. With typical understatement, Cohn writes, “In a close election in a closely divided country, any losses could be pivotal. While Mr. Trump has survived many controversies, he has also suffered a political penalty for his conduct. He did lose re-election, after all.”
After quoting poll results to hypotheticals such as “if Trump is found guilty, how will you vote?” Cohn notes, “the results do show that a meaningful number of Mr. Trump’s supporters are understandably uncomfortable with the idea of supporting a felon. This is a line that Mr. Trump hasn’t crossed before..”
And then, WHAMO:
“In New York Times/Siena College battleground polls in October, about 7 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters said they would vote for Mr. Biden if Mr. Trump were found guilty in an unspecified criminal trial. This may not seem like a huge number, but anything like it would be decisive in our era of close elections. Much more recently, a Marquette Law School poll taken during the hush-money trial found that a modest lead for Mr. Trump among registered voters nationwide became a four-point Biden lead if Mr. Trump were found guilty.”
Cohn is the guy who defended the April Times/Sienna poll until Wednesday when he found what he called some “holes” in the poll numbers. Apparently, after Trump’s guilty verdict, he did some more digging and found new chasms had opened.
It's about six months until election day, and as they say, a lot can happen between now and then. If Trump is given a jail sentence in July, an entirely new electoral explosion will go off. But the fact that a former president has been found guilty by a jury of his peers of not one, but 34 felonies, is something no one is going to forget. Trump will appeal the verdict, of course, pushing any potential execution of the sentence far into the future.
In the meantime, however, he will be a felon on probation. Conditions of his probation will be set by Judge Merchan, the man Trump has excoriated almost daily as “corrupt” and “conflicted,” running a “rigged trial.” Judge Merchan will be able to take into consideration Trump’s violations of his gag order both in setting conditions for probation and in the sentence he will hand down in July.
Trump will be required to meet with the New York State Office of Probation and Correctional Alternatives. He will be interviewed, tested for drugs, and assigned a probation officer. It is possible he will be required to ask permission to travel out of New York State, but it is more likely that he will have to report his travel plans, in advance, to his probation officer. Conditions for Trump’s probation will be set by the judge. One of the likely conditions is that Trump will not be permitted to be in the presence of other convicted felons, so it will be bye-bye to rally appearances with characters like “Sheff G” Williams and “Sleepy Hallow” Chambers.
If Trump was still a resident of New York State, he would be able to vote in November. However, in the state of Florida, convicted felons cannot vote until they have served their sentence and paid all court costs and fines related to their conviction.
We will soon see what effect the verdict will have on polling in the presidential race, and there will doubtlessly be new effects on polls after Trump is sentenced.
But Donald Trump’s guilty verdict does not come with laurels for Democrats to rest on. The court fight is over, but the fight to elect Joe Biden to another term in the presidency is just beginning.
I am more worried about the Electoral College. Had the election depended on the popular vote, Trump would never have been president.
His “speech” a few minutes ago was the equivalent of Dusty Rhodes screaming out the window of his New York apartment. The crowd outside Trmp Tower just heard a disconnected rambling stream of no consciousness by a failing old man. Certainly Judge Merchan will factor his combative lack of remorse into the presentencing report.