Just what power does Trump still have?

Photo illustration: The New Yorker

Way back in March of 2023, Donald Trump went on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox News and said he would “solve” the war in Ukraine in “24 hours” if he was elected president in 2024. “There’s a very easy negotiation to take place. But I don’t want to tell you what it is because then I can’t use that negotiation; it’ll never work. But it’s a very easy negotiation to take place. I will have it solved within one day, a peace between them,” Trump confided to the ever-eager, ever-gullible Hannity.

In May of 2023, Trump told a CNN town hall, “I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours.”

In August of 2024, Trump told a National Guard conference, “Before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after I win the presidency, I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled. I’ll get it settled very fast.”

On February 28 of this year, just after the three-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump and Vance infamously sandbagged Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. Accusing Zelenskyy of starting the war, Trump declared that he had not taken sides in the conflict and was “in the middle.” He berated the shocked Ukrainian leader before having him escorted out of the White House, “You see the hatred he’s got for Putin. That’s very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate.”

A few days later, Trump paused military and intelligence aid to Ukraine.

In April, after Putin fired yet another barrage of drones and missiles at civilian targets in Ukraine, Trump posted on Truth Social, “Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP!”

On Sunday, Trump fired off this blast at the Russian president: “I’ve always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely CRAZY! I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!”

Yesterday, Trump whined again on Truth Social that “if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!”

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chief of Russia’s security council and Russia’s puppet-president when Putin took a time-out as Prime Minister between 2008 and 2012, fired back: “Regarding Trump’s words about Putin ‘playing with fire’ and ‘really bad things’ happening to Russia. I only know of one REALLY BAD thing — WWIII. I hope Trump understands this.”

Russian President Putin did not attend the abortive “peace talks” in Turkey earlier this month, although Zelenskyy did show up. Now the two sides are trading “proposals” that amount to demands if there is to be a ceasefire and eventual peace.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Putin’s army is pressing to take more Ukrainian land across a wide swath of territory that includes the area around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and has been running what it calls “illegal” new power lines near the Sea of Azov in Russian occupied territory, “suggesting that Russia intends to bring the ZNPP's reactors out of their current cold shutdown state…acting upon its long-held plans to connect the ZNPP to the Russian power grid.”

Meanwhile, over the last three days, Russia has bombarded Ukraine with more than 900 Shahed and decoy drones against civilian targets in Ukraine, along with dozens of ballistic missiles and Kh-101 cruise missiles.

ISW reports that Putin is in it for the long haul, importing hundreds of mobile missiles and 155 mm artillery pieces and ammunition from North Korea and thousands of computer chips from China to ramp up its drone production.

Trump’s frustration at not being able to end the war in Ukraine is boiling over. He has changed his timeline for ending the war multiple times, and now he is changing his rhetoric about his “friend” Putin.

The words “World War III” are now being flung back and forth between the superpowers. European nations are sufficiently alarmed that they have just completed a security conference and pledged to increase their defense budgets in many cases to 5 percent of their GDP. The upcoming NATO summit in The Hague is being met with headlines about the “dark cloud” cast by the “war of words” between Trump and Putin.

The biggest question at the summit should be, where is Trump’s power?

Here at home, Trump’s power is taking hit after hit. Tonight, the U.S. Court of International Trade handed down a ruling that Trump exceeded his power to impose tariffs under federal law. “The challenged Tariff Orders will be vacated and their operation permanently enjoined,” the panel ruled. The three judges on the Court of Trade were appointed by Obama, Reagan, and…you guessed right…Donald Trump.

Trump had invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or IEEPA in setting the taxes on imported goods. The court found that Trump exceeded his authority under the IEEPA and ended tariffs he had imposed on Canada, Mexico, China, and all the other 10 percent tariffs Trump had imposed on every other country on earth, as well as several uninhabited islands.

The Constitution gives the Congress the power to impose tariffs, although the legislature has enacted several laws, including the IEEPA, ceding certain powers over the economy to the president. No president before has invoked the IEEPA to impose “emergency” tariffs. The trade court found that Trump had not adequately supported the reasons for his emergency declaration, ruling that the law did not allow “the President to impose whatever tariff rates he deems desirable.”

Trump has been losing in other courts, which have ruled that his attempt to shut down the Department of Education was illegal, that his takeover of the United States Institute of Peace was illegal, and that many of the federal workers fired by Elon Musk’s DOGE assault on the government must be rehired.

With Musk resigning his “special government employee” status in the face of the reversals of so many of his and Trump’s efforts to remake the government in either Musk’s or Trump’s image – it was never clear which – and Musk’s announcement that he opposes Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” where is Trump’s power now?