When leaders with no combat experience plan battles, the result is often poor. Hitler won medals for personal valor in WWI and thus fancied himself a tactical expert, but when Germans were faced with determined opposition their superior weapons and planning quickly collapsed. The scenes in Downfall where he commanded non-existent divisions to defend Berlin are only the last link in a long chain that began with Goering changing tactics in 1940 to focus on bombing London instead of airfields. Same is happening now. Putin's advisors told him this would be a blitz, but they seem to forget that Ukraine is a nation with a strong warrior tradition. They also forgot how important social media is in 2022, and how this is being played out on the world stage.
Russia can take Ukraine and then they have to run the place. Allow Ukraine to end up like Syria, a smashed civilization and the world will turn on Russia. Putin think's it's 1956 or 1968 and he can roll in and win the next day. This war is in fact the world vs Putin. He is so hated, men will come from everywhere. This might well be a long brutal war that sobers everyone and ruins Russia's place in the world for a generation or more.
I believe Putin expected Zelensky to get out of the country as fast as Afghanistan's leaders did. Never underestimate the power of a comedian, they are smart and brave enough to stand in front of a bunch of strangers and make them laugh. Zelensky is winning the opinion war and that will definitely hurt Putin in his weak spot his ego.
An additional consideration is about Ukrainian resistance. You may vaguely recall that Ukraine was a veritable hotbed of resistance to Nazis, Poles, and Soviets, as for example the 1929 Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Big, violent, ugly, infamous, extremely nationalist, and fierce. The memory and remnants of these and many more resistance groups exist now, and there are monuments and celebrations in their honor even today. Consider Stepan Bandera, I imagine they will regather under new leadership as anti-Russian. No doubt some of their techniques will not go down well with the West, but be prepared for the resurrection of some of these profound resistance groups. Resistance was and will become quite complicated and possibly extremely violent.
Similar to Afghanistan in 1979, no tip toe through the tulips here. The arrogance of empire builders never ceases to amaze me. If the US was able to develop the mujaheddin from afar and with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, imagine what can be developed with respect to Ukraine resistance from nearby. Furthermore, if the US were to actually learn from what it has done wrong with our imperial projects (Vietman, for example), then we just might have an optimistic outcome.
The fog of war means it is going to be awhile before we have any idea how much damage the Ukrainians have and can inflict on the Russians. Barry McCafffrey paints a picture where the bulk of the Ukrainian Army is dug in on an eastern front and in danger of being encircled and massacred by mobile Russian armor of which they have a lot. But, IMHO the biggest unknown at this time is how many Ukrainians will become part of a well armed and organized guerrilla resistance after Russia does finally crush the standing Ukrainian Army. The real battle for Kiev may go on for weeks/months/years bleeding Russian military drip , drip, drip. Forget installing a puppet government of right wing Ukrainians; they would simply become targets for the partisans along with the Red Army which would be forced to garrison the country for years.
In WWII the scariest phrase a Wehrmacht officer heard was "You have been assigned to the Eastern Front." The modern day equivalent would be "You are going to command a unit fightingt the Nazis in the Ukraine for the glory of Mother Russia and Fearless Leader Putin."
There's so much info incoming right now. The reports include that Russians are not onboard for this, less than half the country approves. Putin is not as popular now as when he took Crimea. It's a tough thing when you say we won't put boots on the ground and you have to do from the sidelines. There are reports that Germany, who wouldn't let arms into Ukraine, has reversed course on that. They need all the help they can get. I read a report a couple of days ago that Putin had cremation tankers moved to the edges of Ukraine. They gave details. So Russians who lose loved ones in this attack on another country who's done nothing to them will never have a body to bury. Wonder if Putin will do more than just send them an urn to let them know they've lost their loved one. It's amazing to me how much a pariah Putin now is. No banks, no air space for commercial flights, etc. Of course for people like Putin and Trump, they've already discounted all who think they are what they are.
Every step forward is a force multiplier against Putin succeeding. As Lucian suggests, Russian supply columns are vulnerable to hit and run attacks. A winter terrain makes it more difficult to spot and disarm improvised explosive devices. It's more difficult to maneuver. The natural tendency is to stick to established road. That proved disastrous to American forces in Korea in 1950 and 1951, where PRC troops were able to slip by and set up ambush sites behind the forward elements. The odds tend to favor the defense if it has anti-aircraft capability that can neutralize close air support. Today's ground-to-air missiles are deadly to CAS helicopters.
When leaders with no combat experience plan battles, the result is often poor. Hitler won medals for personal valor in WWI and thus fancied himself a tactical expert, but when Germans were faced with determined opposition their superior weapons and planning quickly collapsed. The scenes in Downfall where he commanded non-existent divisions to defend Berlin are only the last link in a long chain that began with Goering changing tactics in 1940 to focus on bombing London instead of airfields. Same is happening now. Putin's advisors told him this would be a blitz, but they seem to forget that Ukraine is a nation with a strong warrior tradition. They also forgot how important social media is in 2022, and how this is being played out on the world stage.
My first source for war news, as always, LKTIV. Save some words and energy in reserve for yourself, my friend, because it indeed may be a long slog.
Russia can take Ukraine and then they have to run the place. Allow Ukraine to end up like Syria, a smashed civilization and the world will turn on Russia. Putin think's it's 1956 or 1968 and he can roll in and win the next day. This war is in fact the world vs Putin. He is so hated, men will come from everywhere. This might well be a long brutal war that sobers everyone and ruins Russia's place in the world for a generation or more.
Russia is having its own internal civil crisis right now, just like the U.S.
Russia is being forced to face the challenge of overcoming the yoke of dictatorship and oppression.
“This war is in fact the world vs Putin.”
Let's hope the young conscript Russian soldiers rebel when they see the faces of their Slavic brothers looking back at them!
I believe Putin expected Zelensky to get out of the country as fast as Afghanistan's leaders did. Never underestimate the power of a comedian, they are smart and brave enough to stand in front of a bunch of strangers and make them laugh. Zelensky is winning the opinion war and that will definitely hurt Putin in his weak spot his ego.
A short, well-informed history of Ukraine from Greg Olear, writer and journalist with Ukrainian heritage
https://gregolear.substack.com/p/the-ukraine-fallacies-with-victor?utm_source=url
Putin is a moron, as TC would say. He thought the people of Ukraine were going to welcome him with open arms as a liberator. He’s out of touch.
An additional consideration is about Ukrainian resistance. You may vaguely recall that Ukraine was a veritable hotbed of resistance to Nazis, Poles, and Soviets, as for example the 1929 Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Big, violent, ugly, infamous, extremely nationalist, and fierce. The memory and remnants of these and many more resistance groups exist now, and there are monuments and celebrations in their honor even today. Consider Stepan Bandera, I imagine they will regather under new leadership as anti-Russian. No doubt some of their techniques will not go down well with the West, but be prepared for the resurrection of some of these profound resistance groups. Resistance was and will become quite complicated and possibly extremely violent.
Similar to Afghanistan in 1979, no tip toe through the tulips here. The arrogance of empire builders never ceases to amaze me. If the US was able to develop the mujaheddin from afar and with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, imagine what can be developed with respect to Ukraine resistance from nearby. Furthermore, if the US were to actually learn from what it has done wrong with our imperial projects (Vietman, for example), then we just might have an optimistic outcome.
The fog of war means it is going to be awhile before we have any idea how much damage the Ukrainians have and can inflict on the Russians. Barry McCafffrey paints a picture where the bulk of the Ukrainian Army is dug in on an eastern front and in danger of being encircled and massacred by mobile Russian armor of which they have a lot. But, IMHO the biggest unknown at this time is how many Ukrainians will become part of a well armed and organized guerrilla resistance after Russia does finally crush the standing Ukrainian Army. The real battle for Kiev may go on for weeks/months/years bleeding Russian military drip , drip, drip. Forget installing a puppet government of right wing Ukrainians; they would simply become targets for the partisans along with the Red Army which would be forced to garrison the country for years.
In WWII the scariest phrase a Wehrmacht officer heard was "You have been assigned to the Eastern Front." The modern day equivalent would be "You are going to command a unit fightingt the Nazis in the Ukraine for the glory of Mother Russia and Fearless Leader Putin."
There are many, many images of Russian armor, long columns charred. Dead Russians all around. These people are tough, very tough!!! I love ’em!!!!
There are pix of hundreds of Molotov cocktails and vids of them being used on APCs and tanks in Kyiv with devastating effect.
Intel says Putin is in his Lair in the Urals with oligarchs (no escape possible) snd is raging.
There's so much info incoming right now. The reports include that Russians are not onboard for this, less than half the country approves. Putin is not as popular now as when he took Crimea. It's a tough thing when you say we won't put boots on the ground and you have to do from the sidelines. There are reports that Germany, who wouldn't let arms into Ukraine, has reversed course on that. They need all the help they can get. I read a report a couple of days ago that Putin had cremation tankers moved to the edges of Ukraine. They gave details. So Russians who lose loved ones in this attack on another country who's done nothing to them will never have a body to bury. Wonder if Putin will do more than just send them an urn to let them know they've lost their loved one. It's amazing to me how much a pariah Putin now is. No banks, no air space for commercial flights, etc. Of course for people like Putin and Trump, they've already discounted all who think they are what they are.
Like Mike Tyson said, "everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
Every step forward is a force multiplier against Putin succeeding. As Lucian suggests, Russian supply columns are vulnerable to hit and run attacks. A winter terrain makes it more difficult to spot and disarm improvised explosive devices. It's more difficult to maneuver. The natural tendency is to stick to established road. That proved disastrous to American forces in Korea in 1950 and 1951, where PRC troops were able to slip by and set up ambush sites behind the forward elements. The odds tend to favor the defense if it has anti-aircraft capability that can neutralize close air support. Today's ground-to-air missiles are deadly to CAS helicopters.
I agree, but we will see👍