The big story now is escalation
How fast? How far? How bad will it get?
Russian troops so far are attacking Ukrainian military installations. The Ukrainian military will retreat from its positions. They will retreat into civilian areas. How long before Russia starts shelling civilian areas, attacking towns and cities with tanks and artillery? How long before we start seeing dead civilian bodies?
The other big story is the definition of war. Moving troops into a foreign country is obviously an act of war. What happens when what the Russians do in Ukraine begins to affect Poland, a NATO member? What happens when Ukrainian troops follow civilians and retreat into Poland? What happens when they fire at Russians in Ukraine? What happens when Russia fires back and starts killing Poles?
This is going to get very much worse, very very fast.
My opinion. It will take a confrontation like the Cuban missile crisis, probably Poland. It could even mean a ground and air war for awhile until enough people die and peace talks occur. I doubt nuclear weapons will be used because I think everyone knows that’s planet extinction. Putin is intent on reconstituting the old Soviet Union. It will take a major confrontation to stop him. We can stick our head in the sand but we have treaties that we have to protect or truly become a third class country. I am afraid Obama’s handling of Crimea and Trump’s praise and admiration of Putin contributed. Now Putin believes we do not have the resolve or gumption to fight back, given the past 20 years and before that. Vietnam anybody? Plus have we won a war since 1945? And we’ve been in 4 that I remember. What a fuckin mess this world is. And unfortunately this country. Sad. We have to decide where to draw the line and what effect placing the line there means. Can you believe it? I’m glad I’m 75. Maybe I’ll die before we blow ourselves up. Shit.
As the West wrings its hands, rends its garments while sounding like Sen. Susan Collins, Ukraine is on its own to fight the invasion by Russia.
Once again, Putin has taken what he wants with nary a lifted hand from the Free World. Oh sure, there are sanctions. As we have learned, sanctions mean little as Putin continues his stated aim of re-uniting Mother Russia in all her mostly fantasy glory.
After securing Ukraine, what will prevent Putin from claiming Vilnius and Moldova? Turkey, long a West troublemaker, might strengthen its alliance with Russia.
Sanctions have proven mostly worthless. Putin care little if the everyday Russian suffers while he moves to reclaim Mother Russia for his alleged legacy.
If sanctions against Russian oligarchs has real teeth, perhaps those people will be able to exert some leverage on Putin to get him to back off his land grab. I find that doubtful.
What we see here is the inability of the U.S. and the rest of the world to stand up to a bully. We can bluster and parade about like some puffed up rooster but won't draw the line in the sand and dare Putin to cross.
War is an abomination. It is inhuman and inhumane.
When I was in the 6th grade there was a school bully that picked on me mercilessly. One day I broke, punching him in the mouth. I was scared to death he'd beat the crap out of me. Instead he walked away.
It's time to punch Putin in the mouth.