There is a new sheriff in town in the Middle East, and his name is Bibi Netanyahu

Syrian rebel stomps on head of Assad statue

When Syrian rebel forces stormed into Damascus and toppled Bashar al Assad yesterday, sending him fleeing to Moscow, it wasn’t clear how things would shake out, beyond the celebrating of Syrians who had finally unyoked themselves from Assad’s dictatorial rule.

Today, 24 hours later, a picture is emerging, and it’s not one that anyone expected even a few months ago. Recall that Israel initiated its war on Hezbollah back in September with the so-called “pager attack,” when pagers carried by Hezbollah fighters were remotely detonated across Lebanon, killing 37 and injuring hundreds. The pager explosions were followed quickly by exploding two-way radios used by Hezbollah. Two days later, Israel hit Hezbollah targets across Lebanon in hundreds of airstrikes. The attacks soon moved north to include a suburb of Beirut where Hezbollah headquarters was located, and less than a week later, Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah as he was meeting with top Hezbollah leaders. Then Israel sent ground forces into Lebanon for the first time in years, telling the world it was going to create a buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah from sending rockets into Northern Israel.

Seemingly within a few weeks, a shooting war had broken out between Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel – much more heavily armed, with a larger army and its air force – was winning.

What was going on with Israel’s sudden flurry of attacks on Hezbollah? Israel still had its hands full in Gaza, where Hamas held more than 100 hostages and fighting in the streets still raged, with Israel continuing its brutal bombardment, claiming it was targeting Hamas targets. This was the two-front war Israel was said to want to avoid when they first attacked Gaza after the murderous assault by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Did Israel have enough soldiers and ammunition to fight on two fronts?

It emerged in September and October of this year, that yes Israel did. What is now clear is that Benjamin Netanyahu and his military commanders had made a calculation that the war in Ukraine had so sapped the Russian army and used up so much of its arsenal of weapons, that Hezbollah and its Syrian allies, backed by Moscow, would not be able to be resupplied with Russian rockets and artillery. Iran was busy supplying the Houthi rebels in Yemen and backing Shiite militants in Iraq. September was the moment Israel chose to strike.

It is at least possible that Israel knew in September of the strength of the Syrian rebels in the north, and maybe even that they planned to attack Aleppo in late November. Israel’s Mossad intelligence service was able find and target the top leadership of Hezbollah within a matter of days after Israel had launched its first attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon in September, so it’s reasonable to think that Mossad had a handle on the Syrian rebels, too.

For their part, Syrian rebels had watched Hezbollah get decimated by Israel in September and October. By November, they knew Assad would not be able to call on Hezbollah to help put down another rebellion in Aleppo and Idlib. November was the worst month for Russia, Syria’s other key ally. In its nearly three-year war against Ukraine, Russia suffered more than 45,000 casualties in that month alone, and as many as 125,000 total since September of this year. Estimates of Russian losses since the beginning of the war exceeded one million for the first time in November.

Russia wouldn’t be coming to the rescue of Assad, either.

On November 30, with Hezbollah in tatters and Russia back on its heels in Ukraine, Syrian rebels struck Aleppo and started their ten-day push to Damascus. Reports from Syria say that after initial opposition from Assad’s army in the north, there hasn’t been much fighting as Syrian rebels took Idlib and then Hama and then Homs and yesterday, Damascus.

Do you want to know who was sitting back with a big shit-eating grin on his face as Assad’s private jet left for Moscow? Bibi Netanyahu. Having crippled Hezbollah and occupied a strip of Southern Lebanon, Netanyahu was in position to take advantage of the chaos in Syria. Today, he made his move. Netanyahu ordered Israeli forces to occupy the buffer zone between Syria and the Golan heights, the strip of Syrian territory Israel captured and occupied in the Six Day War in 1967. The New York Times reported this evening that Israeli tanks moved into the U.N. overseen buffer zone, and Israeli ground forces took control of the summit of Mt. Hermon, on the border between Syria and Lebanon. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have moved past the Golan Heights buffer zone into several small towns in Syria, telling residents that they “do not intend to harm” villagers in the area.

Rebel leaders in Syria ordered the Syrian government ministries to stay in place so they can function while a new government is formed. Nobody knows at this point how that will happen and whether the various factions that control parts of Syria can settle their differences and compromise on a coalition government.

Meanwhile, in Israel, villages in the north near the border with Lebanon have been repopulated after having been evacuated when Hezbollah was launching constant rocket attacks into Israel last summer. Some leaders in Israel are already talking about the fall of Assad marking the moment in the Middle East when a new realignment of powers may be possible. Some sort of deal with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states may be back on the table, with Iran and Russia seen to be severely weakened by Assad’s fall.

If, as per usual, the Middle East reverts to type, a return to chaos is not far in the distance. But for the moment, Assad is gone and there’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Bibi Netanyahu. Look for Bibi at the Big Table in the main dining room at Mar a Lago sometime between now and January 20. Donald Trump likes to have his picture taken with a winner, and right now, Netanyahu is looking like one.