33 Comments

Decapitate the three trucks at the head of the convoy and the rest are sitting ducks.

Expand full comment

The Pathans knew how to hit columns of soldiers like this way back in the 19th century! Also hit the middle first, so both ends are isolated from one another.

Expand full comment

Concern over the size of the approaching convoy. That’s a lot of trucks. Yikes.

Expand full comment

I am thinking only lots of boots, not vehicles, will clear that city.

Expand full comment

Urban fighting on the scale of Kiev/Kyiv in Europe hasn't happened since 1945. The Soviets took several hundred thousand casualties in the fight for Berlin. There's no way they can spend this on fighting for the Ukrainian capital or any other major city. Either Putin is going to be worn out and break the Russian army, or he's going to initiate a blockage/siege of the city that could last for months, or he's going to withdraw and make peace, OR he's going to do something much worse than we've seen so far.

PS: But I should have noted that Kyiv isn't garrisoned by as many troops as the Germans had in Berlin. Still, those there are motivated and determined. We saw in Fallujah how difficult it can be to take a large city block by block, and Fallujah isn't as big as Kyiv and the Russians don't have as much firepower as the American forces had then.

Expand full comment

Lucien I wonder if any one has thought to compare just how crowded together these vehicles are compared to how dispersed and alone Putin is in those shots of him meeting with his cabinet and brain trusts?

When he met with Macron they each set alone at the ends of a sixty foot dinner table. Seems to me he is either paranoid or afraid someone in his inner circle just might not be as loyal a comrade as is necessary.

Expand full comment

I think he’s paranoid about getting COVID.

Expand full comment

most of the people I've been reading say it's fear of Covid, which has kept him almost completely (if not completely completely) isolated for nearly two years. I've also seen in the same places that Russian Covid death are at least four or five times what the official reports have claimed. assuming this is the case--and why wouldn't we?--it seems to me that it makes him even more dangerous than usual. all of us in one way or another have felt, if not CRAZIER, certainly DIFFERENT during the same period and most of us have been a lot less isolated than he he's been. and most of us are, hopefully, a lot less paranoid (I figure that if you're a lifelong trained spy, paranoia is pretty liable to be the main element in which you swim). that his plans seem to be going somewhat awry doesn't strike me as making things less dangerous. it also strikes me, on a positive note (assuming there IS one), that there's something damn near Shakespearean about how Zelensky is rising to the horrible occasion. I hope he stays okay. I know we all do.

Expand full comment

Because he took the Russian vaccine? I would be too...

Expand full comment

Good grief. A US strike may not need 20 minutes to make mincemeat out of a formation like that.

Expand full comment

A couple squadrons of A10s howling in just above the treetops would be truly terrifying.

Expand full comment

russians do seem to have logistics problems. combine that with apparent poor planning with their advance entry fighters, they look like they are sitting ducks.

i hope Ukrainians can take advantage of this. i hope they have a good supply of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones with accompanying munitions to attack such bottlenecked russians.

another bit of info i hope is true is reportedly Ukrainians started with a supply of anti-armor weapons that exceeded the number of russian tanks. and i read they are getting more from supportive nations. i hope they can figure out how to evade interception by russians to deliver the materiel to Ukranian forces.

Expand full comment

It's odd to me in an academic way how the Russians haven't improved on their logistical capabilities since WWII, evidently. That was a big weakness to them then, and things don't seem to have improved a lot despite all the decades to plan and reform and hone skills in various little wars. I'm not saying they need the huge logistical tail the US military is accustomed to -- that is a weakness of the American military, IMHO -- but they don't seem to have hit upon a satisfactory middle ground. The new Russian army appears as hollow and brittle in many ways as the old Soviet army (which was never the ten-foot giant the Pentagon made it out to be).

Expand full comment

Shouldn't the US get some drones into the hands of the Ukrainians, stat? That would surely make mincemeat of that convoy.

Expand full comment

Could be they’re waiting until they are in range of a Bayraktar drone strike or other ambush

Expand full comment

Absolutely NO convoy discipline. There are vids of convoys like this smoldering on the roads.

Expand full comment

y'know, after i had written earlier that the traffic-jammed convoy was ripe for picking, i had further thoughts.

many of those trucks are driven by or loaded with young conscripts who really don't want to be there, and some, i've heard, didn't even know they were being put into the Ukraine war until they were there.

they don't want to kill people who look like them and speak like them.

they shouldn't die because of some military blunders in traffic control left them sitting there, and all for the vain glory of an autocrat.

i think Ukraine's offer of 5 million rubles (now less than $45,000) is a good ploy to encourage those boys to surrender. hell, going to live in Ukraine might be a whole lot better than going home to Bumfukville, russia.

i hope musk's Starfi internet can get the offer to those boys. and more on that, since real news of putin's war has been kept from the russian people, if internet and social media do their thing, when mothers at home see vids of young russian boys getting killed off, that might bring out the scythes and pitchforks against putin (much more effective than waving sickles and hammers). visuals of the pain suffered by russian soldiers will be effective narratives to pull in hearts and minds.

Expand full comment

Consider conscipts engaging Russian speakers. It ain't exactly Afghanistan circa 1982.

Expand full comment

What exactly is going on here? And reports of Russian casualties seemly grossly high.

Expand full comment

I'm not paying attention to casualty reports on either side. They're either inflated or deflated.

Expand full comment

Yeah, it's very, very weird to me how blase the Russians are about vulnerability to aerial or ground attacks. You'd think no one in charge had studied the military arts. Even in WWII commanders knew better than this, and warfare was significantly more primitive than today. This is all very revealing about Russian tactical mindset. Maybe they've had it too easy for too long against foes who lacked the ability to punch back -- which you could say is also a weakness of the American military, in recent wars, altho' I doubt American officers just take things for granted the way we're seeing displayed by Russia. Just going by the book would reflect more awareness of what NOT to do than I'm seeing in photos like these.

Expand full comment

Yea, I don't get it! Hit that thang!

Expand full comment

I think the Ukrainians are using drones, RPGs and the like. But they seem to be letting this convoy get close. Not sure why. Also reports if Ukrainian pilots getting some MiG-29s in Poland. We do live in interesting times…

Expand full comment

Why haven’t the Ukrainian army and civilians mined roads and bridges?

Expand full comment

I wonder if the US and EU countries have somehow provided the Ukrainian army with more surveillance weaponry than you and I know about. I certainly hope so.

Expand full comment