An extraordinary new statistic was released yesterday. The Pentagon now estimates that more than 7,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the three weeks since the start of its war against Ukraine. It is a conservative estimate, arrived at by analyzing video footage and satellite photos and taking in Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which the Pentagon feels are high at 13,500, and Russian reports of its own casualties of 498, now more than two weeks old. American experts can estimate deaths by counting the number of Russian tanks, armored personnel carriers and trucks that have been destroyed. They know the number of soldiers carried in each type of vehicle, and by multiplying the numbers, come up with a total that way. Seven thousand deaths is more than the U.S.
A few weeks? A month? I think this invasion is going to go in the toilet pretty soon, probably in April. When you have soldiers who have not been properly informed about what they’re doing, but who have been clearly informed that they will be arrested, court-martialed, or shot if they return, you have a recipe for disaster in the morale department. Add to this recipe the fact that Russians are suddenly finding out that they are fighting Ukraine, which would be like soldiers from New York suddenly finding out that they are attacking and invading New Jersey. It’s a complete fiasco in every respect except for the deaths and injuries and despair it’s causing. Emulating Stalin, but choosing all the top people in the Kremlin instead, would be a fitting end to this criminal tragedy of world-class proportions.
New York and New Jersey are part of the same country (although some in both places might deny it). Russia attacking Ukraine is more like the U.S. attacking Canada. We have similar ethnic backgrounds, speak similar, though not identical, languages, and were at one time both part of Britain's American colonies.
When they were colonies, New York and New Jersey were different countries. Then when the United States was formed, they were states in the same country. Russia and the Ukraine were different “states“ in the same Soviet Union. No analogy is perfect, but this is as close as I could get. Russia and Ukraine are as close as New York and New Jersey, or California and Oregon, or something along those lines. It’s important from the military morale point of view, because Russian soldiers have relatives and friends in the Ukraine, they are very very close.
I wouldn't say they were different countries. Neither was a self governing nation; they were both part of the British imperium, with governors-general appointed by the Crown. I do agree that there are close relationships between Russians and Ukrainians, sometimes within the same families. This is also true of the U.S. and Canada. My wife's grandmother was an immigrant from Newfoundland (then a separate British colony not part of Canada); as a consequence, she has relatives in various parts of Canada.
I had to laugh, tho, because the USA invaded Canada during the Revolution AND the War of 1812, trying to conquer it. Neither attempt succeeded, which the Canadians are justly proud of, but that was different time and those armies didn't feel much kinship then. We burned Toronto (then York), the British burned Washington City. Call it even!
True. Attacking Canada is a very bad idea. I remember reading years ago that in the early 1920s a group of prominent Canadian military officers took a goodwill tour of major U.S. military installations. It turned out that they used this tour to draw plans for a Canadian invasion of the U.S. This was, of course, more a hypothetical than a serious design. I recall that the first objective of the invasion was to capture and defend something called "the Albany salient." The planners weren't aware that any army forced to occupy and defend Albany is an army likely to mutiny.
Given this debacle, do you feel Putin is strong enough to stay in power - and who could depose him? Outside perhaps his inner circle, dissent must be brewing.
Yesterday riding around listening to BBC, a Russian "expert" said several times Putin will be gone. Nobody knows how but gone. I pray that happens sooner rather than later. It was amusing to see him parrot America-far-right speak saying the West wants to cancel Russia. No, just Putin.
You can't silence mothers and fathers brothers sisters and high school friends of 7,000 soldiers. Eventually the truth will filter down to ordinary Russians. Turn off the internet and people will write letters or make phone calls on land lines. The more repressive the state becomes the deeper the damage in popular belief. Whole sale destruction of cities reveals not an army fighting a war but hysterical flailing and desperate violence. In a few months if not weeks the world will have an accurate understanding of what has happened and the people who own Russia with either get rid of Putin or go down with him.
I'm not underestimating Putin, and I'm also not underestimating the damage sustained over time by a population with a repressive, autocratic, "l'état, c'est moi" kingpin. It's not like Russia had a strong democratic tradition before Putin, or before the Soviet Union either. The U.S. does have a fairly strong democratic tradition and look at the mess we're in: some 74 million people voted *again* for a repressive, autocratic, incompetent jerk, and a major political party is hell-bent on suppressing dissent, the vote, anything that threatens their worldview. The notion of too many USians that democracy would miraculously flower after the USSR broke apart was delusional -- indeed, as delusional as the notion that the Iraqis would welcome the U.S. as liberators. Instead, Putin's Russia has given us a graphic illustration of what happens when capitalism can run amok without democratic safeguards. This is why I've taken to calling our home-grown billionaires and mega-corporations "oligarchs" -- to remind us that we're playing for very high stakes here.
Not sure it’s a great idea to underestimate Putin. Are chemical weapons next? Isn’t it going to get worse b4 it gets better? Why believe MSNBC or CNN or the Times? Haven’t they gotten stuff wrong in the past? Now they’re pushing a theory that maybe Putin’s inner circle may turn on him. Reminds me of how we were always just days away from Trump being carted off in hand cuffs. Hope peddlers, some would say. This is not over yet. I pray with every ounce of my being that Biden has warmed Putin that if he touches Zelensky, Russia disappears from the map.
I certainly have a little faith that the paranoid rat is cornered in a space that is so tight he will not be able to escape. I want him taken alive and his posse too. I want him to spend his time in solitary confinement until his trial where he will be seated in a glass cage, just like Eichmann. His contempt for humans other than himself is despicable, and we should be able to see his demise over time. He will not live long.
Several upcoming issues for the Russian Army. Logistics obviously suck. Soldiers who are hungry, cold thirsty and getting shot at for reasons about which they are clueless might become hesitant to rally round the motherland that dropped them into this hellhole. And very soon it’s going to get warm. Spring will be sprung, and all that impressively heavy equipment that looked so formidable will be foundering in mud. Lots of it. Think Spanish Armada. This all makes for an abbreviated timetable for Russian success, which is sadly defined only in the mind of a madman. He’s also running out of jail space as well as Big Macs , medicine, food, spare parts at home. And money. How does he pay for mercenaries, food, new equipment, longer tables? Harder still, where does he get senior officers if they are either being offered up as human sacrifice at the front lines or being jailed and interrogated at home for still having front lines. Hard on future recruiting efforts, for sure. This is what my daddy would call a FUBAR, pure and simple. It’s not really a matter now of IF Putin is gong to lose, but when. And that’s up to a mad little shitweasel who can’t find a shirt to wear. Yikes!
I don't know any more than you do if the Russians can keep on fighting this 'war' which seems to be eerily reminiscent of Stalingrad, when the Germans used every single piece of armament and tossed entire divisions into the battle.
The Germans were exhausted in every way by the time it was done and they had surrendered. That was only one city, too.
The Russians are doing the same but only to an entire country and being out fought by a smaller and more ferocious army.
I wonder if Putin ever read about it and thought he could do the same to Ukraine.
Only problem is that Ukraine wasn't an enemy to be invaded without notice, without warning.
They're fighting back with every single ounce of courage, determination and strength to keep the Russians at bay. It looks like they're succeeding, with incredibly heartbreaking casualties for their side.
History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. In every moral sense, Ukraine has won this invasion and war. Putin might not agree, but right now I don't think his opinion matters any more.
2% being the amount of any volume required for irreversible change; ‘could Russian Forces become so depleted that Ukraine might reclaim all of her borders? ‘Jus Sayin’
And yet… we’re #1 having left Cambodia as the most bombed country in the history of the world;
‘having dropped more ordinance than all of World War II, at a time when Nixon knew we were pulling out.
However… we had not declared war with them and it’s not a European country (white), so, does it still count?
Another question is how the Syrian mercenaries will be paid.
Aircraft losses have been heavy as well. The U.S. lost seven aircraft to enemy fire in 2003, the first year of the Iraq war (the war began in March so it was nine months of fighting). The Ukrainians seem have downed many more aircraft, both helicopter and fixed wing. Another ten or so American planes were lost in operational accidents, and it would be surprising if the Russians haven't had their share of such accidents as well.
The new Stingers the Ukrainians are getting have proximity fuses, which means they can bring down an aircraft even if they miss. Comsiderably more lethal than the Stingers we sent to Afghans back in the day.
Saw the Frontline repeat about Putin last night. The thing had me talking back to the screen. This guy is way, way off his rock. And how many Russian generals have been killed in the fighting? Any possibility that the Russian military might mutiny and come for Putin?
So, I have seen some similar information and I also read that Zelensky has publicly said that he will welcome those Russian soldiers who walk away from combat and treat them in the way people should be treated. What follows, is that they cannot go home as long a Putin is running the show. Also, if the Russian Army should in fact get whipped or there is a truce of sorts and soldiers return to Russia to family and friends, the cat is out of the bag for Putin with the Russian people. If that scenario should unfold, I am guessing he gets taken out in some way or another. Any thoughts on the follow on from this article or is that for another day? Nice article by the way.
Last night Richard Engel reported from inside a bombed out food warehouse. He said there were two taken out and speculated that the intention is to starve those who remain in the city. I would venture to guess that will include Russian soldiers, who, it is said, are not being fed. Anyone who targets women and children in a theater, who bombs maternity hospitals, and then food warehouses is displaying to the world exactly the depths of their depravity. No one will mourn his departure.
I have moved past wondering about their battlefield performance to what the Kremlin spin machine will tell the world when the retreat begins. They can only pass off immobility and scattershot destruction as a military advance for so long.
As usual , Lucien, great inside baseball analysis. Every time I watch all the talking heads on MSNBC (with the exception of Barry McCaffrey) I come away asking WTF are they saying.
The report Putin has arrested two of his top "intelligence" officials (and it is here you might want to educate your subscribers further on the differences between the intelligence functions in the military vs the KGB/CIA kind) when he is, in fact, by definition the #1 intelligence official he likely listens to. Evidently, the buck does not stop in his office?
Finally, my fear is he will, like a caged rat, decide to up the terror quotient further in Ukraine as his frustration grows and his military continues to under perform with the tactics they are using now. Will he become desperate enough to resort to carpet bombing more civilians, using chemical weapons and/or simply throwing 100% of his military capabilities into the fray regardless of the cost in weaponry and casualties he is going to take? Ironically, the longer the Ukrainians resist and are effective in killing more Russians, the greater his frustration may become. Desperate men take desperate actions.
Really good reporting, Lucian. Very very nice.
“How long can he keep it up?”
A few weeks? A month? I think this invasion is going to go in the toilet pretty soon, probably in April. When you have soldiers who have not been properly informed about what they’re doing, but who have been clearly informed that they will be arrested, court-martialed, or shot if they return, you have a recipe for disaster in the morale department. Add to this recipe the fact that Russians are suddenly finding out that they are fighting Ukraine, which would be like soldiers from New York suddenly finding out that they are attacking and invading New Jersey. It’s a complete fiasco in every respect except for the deaths and injuries and despair it’s causing. Emulating Stalin, but choosing all the top people in the Kremlin instead, would be a fitting end to this criminal tragedy of world-class proportions.
New York and New Jersey are part of the same country (although some in both places might deny it). Russia attacking Ukraine is more like the U.S. attacking Canada. We have similar ethnic backgrounds, speak similar, though not identical, languages, and were at one time both part of Britain's American colonies.
When they were colonies, New York and New Jersey were different countries. Then when the United States was formed, they were states in the same country. Russia and the Ukraine were different “states“ in the same Soviet Union. No analogy is perfect, but this is as close as I could get. Russia and Ukraine are as close as New York and New Jersey, or California and Oregon, or something along those lines. It’s important from the military morale point of view, because Russian soldiers have relatives and friends in the Ukraine, they are very very close.
I wouldn't say they were different countries. Neither was a self governing nation; they were both part of the British imperium, with governors-general appointed by the Crown. I do agree that there are close relationships between Russians and Ukrainians, sometimes within the same families. This is also true of the U.S. and Canada. My wife's grandmother was an immigrant from Newfoundland (then a separate British colony not part of Canada); as a consequence, she has relatives in various parts of Canada.
I had to laugh, tho, because the USA invaded Canada during the Revolution AND the War of 1812, trying to conquer it. Neither attempt succeeded, which the Canadians are justly proud of, but that was different time and those armies didn't feel much kinship then. We burned Toronto (then York), the British burned Washington City. Call it even!
True. Attacking Canada is a very bad idea. I remember reading years ago that in the early 1920s a group of prominent Canadian military officers took a goodwill tour of major U.S. military installations. It turned out that they used this tour to draw plans for a Canadian invasion of the U.S. This was, of course, more a hypothetical than a serious design. I recall that the first objective of the invasion was to capture and defend something called "the Albany salient." The planners weren't aware that any army forced to occupy and defend Albany is an army likely to mutiny.
Yo….I’m from jersey. Totally different “country”. Have you ever seen a Yankee at a Phillies game. I should say not!
I haven't, but I'm a Mets fan.
Given this debacle, do you feel Putin is strong enough to stay in power - and who could depose him? Outside perhaps his inner circle, dissent must be brewing.
Yesterday riding around listening to BBC, a Russian "expert" said several times Putin will be gone. Nobody knows how but gone. I pray that happens sooner rather than later. It was amusing to see him parrot America-far-right speak saying the West wants to cancel Russia. No, just Putin.
Although we must be careful what we pray for...but Thank You Lucian for professional hope!
Gone as in drummer for Spinal Tap gone?
If it's similar to falling from a stairway window 20 feet up or getting a cup of tea that is tainted, yes.
Spontaneous combustion
You can't silence mothers and fathers brothers sisters and high school friends of 7,000 soldiers. Eventually the truth will filter down to ordinary Russians. Turn off the internet and people will write letters or make phone calls on land lines. The more repressive the state becomes the deeper the damage in popular belief. Whole sale destruction of cities reveals not an army fighting a war but hysterical flailing and desperate violence. In a few months if not weeks the world will have an accurate understanding of what has happened and the people who own Russia with either get rid of Putin or go down with him.
Opinions | ‘It’s clear what we need to do’: In Russia, war opposition is mounting
A huge slice of Russia’s population is passive, for now, realizing there are risks to speaking out. But a surprising number are doing so.
Opinion by the Washington Post Editorial Board
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/17/ukraine-war-opposition-rises-russia/
Thank You Roland. Hope.
I'm not underestimating Putin, and I'm also not underestimating the damage sustained over time by a population with a repressive, autocratic, "l'état, c'est moi" kingpin. It's not like Russia had a strong democratic tradition before Putin, or before the Soviet Union either. The U.S. does have a fairly strong democratic tradition and look at the mess we're in: some 74 million people voted *again* for a repressive, autocratic, incompetent jerk, and a major political party is hell-bent on suppressing dissent, the vote, anything that threatens their worldview. The notion of too many USians that democracy would miraculously flower after the USSR broke apart was delusional -- indeed, as delusional as the notion that the Iraqis would welcome the U.S. as liberators. Instead, Putin's Russia has given us a graphic illustration of what happens when capitalism can run amok without democratic safeguards. This is why I've taken to calling our home-grown billionaires and mega-corporations "oligarchs" -- to remind us that we're playing for very high stakes here.
Not sure it’s a great idea to underestimate Putin. Are chemical weapons next? Isn’t it going to get worse b4 it gets better? Why believe MSNBC or CNN or the Times? Haven’t they gotten stuff wrong in the past? Now they’re pushing a theory that maybe Putin’s inner circle may turn on him. Reminds me of how we were always just days away from Trump being carted off in hand cuffs. Hope peddlers, some would say. This is not over yet. I pray with every ounce of my being that Biden has warmed Putin that if he touches Zelensky, Russia disappears from the map.
Excellent comment! And”hope peddlers” is a brilliant formulation. However, I really do doubt that Biden threatened to “disappear” Russia!
I certainly have a little faith that the paranoid rat is cornered in a space that is so tight he will not be able to escape. I want him taken alive and his posse too. I want him to spend his time in solitary confinement until his trial where he will be seated in a glass cage, just like Eichmann. His contempt for humans other than himself is despicable, and we should be able to see his demise over time. He will not live long.
From your lips to god’s ears….as my granny would say
Several upcoming issues for the Russian Army. Logistics obviously suck. Soldiers who are hungry, cold thirsty and getting shot at for reasons about which they are clueless might become hesitant to rally round the motherland that dropped them into this hellhole. And very soon it’s going to get warm. Spring will be sprung, and all that impressively heavy equipment that looked so formidable will be foundering in mud. Lots of it. Think Spanish Armada. This all makes for an abbreviated timetable for Russian success, which is sadly defined only in the mind of a madman. He’s also running out of jail space as well as Big Macs , medicine, food, spare parts at home. And money. How does he pay for mercenaries, food, new equipment, longer tables? Harder still, where does he get senior officers if they are either being offered up as human sacrifice at the front lines or being jailed and interrogated at home for still having front lines. Hard on future recruiting efforts, for sure. This is what my daddy would call a FUBAR, pure and simple. It’s not really a matter now of IF Putin is gong to lose, but when. And that’s up to a mad little shitweasel who can’t find a shirt to wear. Yikes!
I don't know any more than you do if the Russians can keep on fighting this 'war' which seems to be eerily reminiscent of Stalingrad, when the Germans used every single piece of armament and tossed entire divisions into the battle.
The Germans were exhausted in every way by the time it was done and they had surrendered. That was only one city, too.
The Russians are doing the same but only to an entire country and being out fought by a smaller and more ferocious army.
I wonder if Putin ever read about it and thought he could do the same to Ukraine.
Only problem is that Ukraine wasn't an enemy to be invaded without notice, without warning.
They're fighting back with every single ounce of courage, determination and strength to keep the Russians at bay. It looks like they're succeeding, with incredibly heartbreaking casualties for their side.
History doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. In every moral sense, Ukraine has won this invasion and war. Putin might not agree, but right now I don't think his opinion matters any more.
2% being the amount of any volume required for irreversible change; ‘could Russian Forces become so depleted that Ukraine might reclaim all of her borders? ‘Jus Sayin’
And yet… we’re #1 having left Cambodia as the most bombed country in the history of the world;
‘having dropped more ordinance than all of World War II, at a time when Nixon knew we were pulling out.
However… we had not declared war with them and it’s not a European country (white), so, does it still count?
Another question is how the Syrian mercenaries will be paid.
Aircraft losses have been heavy as well. The U.S. lost seven aircraft to enemy fire in 2003, the first year of the Iraq war (the war began in March so it was nine months of fighting). The Ukrainians seem have downed many more aircraft, both helicopter and fixed wing. Another ten or so American planes were lost in operational accidents, and it would be surprising if the Russians haven't had their share of such accidents as well.
The new Stingers the Ukrainians are getting have proximity fuses, which means they can bring down an aircraft even if they miss. Comsiderably more lethal than the Stingers we sent to Afghans back in the day.
Saw the Frontline repeat about Putin last night. The thing had me talking back to the screen. This guy is way, way off his rock. And how many Russian generals have been killed in the fighting? Any possibility that the Russian military might mutiny and come for Putin?
So, I have seen some similar information and I also read that Zelensky has publicly said that he will welcome those Russian soldiers who walk away from combat and treat them in the way people should be treated. What follows, is that they cannot go home as long a Putin is running the show. Also, if the Russian Army should in fact get whipped or there is a truce of sorts and soldiers return to Russia to family and friends, the cat is out of the bag for Putin with the Russian people. If that scenario should unfold, I am guessing he gets taken out in some way or another. Any thoughts on the follow on from this article or is that for another day? Nice article by the way.
Last night Richard Engel reported from inside a bombed out food warehouse. He said there were two taken out and speculated that the intention is to starve those who remain in the city. I would venture to guess that will include Russian soldiers, who, it is said, are not being fed. Anyone who targets women and children in a theater, who bombs maternity hospitals, and then food warehouses is displaying to the world exactly the depths of their depravity. No one will mourn his departure.
I have moved past wondering about their battlefield performance to what the Kremlin spin machine will tell the world when the retreat begins. They can only pass off immobility and scattershot destruction as a military advance for so long.
As usual , Lucien, great inside baseball analysis. Every time I watch all the talking heads on MSNBC (with the exception of Barry McCaffrey) I come away asking WTF are they saying.
The report Putin has arrested two of his top "intelligence" officials (and it is here you might want to educate your subscribers further on the differences between the intelligence functions in the military vs the KGB/CIA kind) when he is, in fact, by definition the #1 intelligence official he likely listens to. Evidently, the buck does not stop in his office?
Finally, my fear is he will, like a caged rat, decide to up the terror quotient further in Ukraine as his frustration grows and his military continues to under perform with the tactics they are using now. Will he become desperate enough to resort to carpet bombing more civilians, using chemical weapons and/or simply throwing 100% of his military capabilities into the fray regardless of the cost in weaponry and casualties he is going to take? Ironically, the longer the Ukrainians resist and are effective in killing more Russians, the greater his frustration may become. Desperate men take desperate actions.
Any thoughts on what is likely to come next?