It's unclear any truly unhinged orders from Vladimir Putin would be unquestioningly obeyed rather than meet condign delays, objections, queries, qualified approval stretched out over time.
Even Adolf Hitler had already managed to inspire actual conspiracies for a coup d'etat amongst some of his own generals, and with support from Canaris in the Abwehr, --- as early as 1938!
It's a mistake to simply assume Putin's hold on power is beyond sustaining serious damage, even from or maybe especially from, his own military.
Just summarizing a hopeful set of examples from history --- all tyrants naturally inspire disgust, and it is a sign of weakness and no kind of strength on the part of Putin that he must assassinate his opponents, arrest and imprison them, and is now reduced to having his official thugs threaten little old Russian grandmas who, albeit so far in small numbers, have organized some protests demanding to know where the hell their grandsons who have invaded Ukraine are! Dead or alive, imagine the gathering angst in the civilian poulation as Putin's mad adventure spirals further in the direction of defeat.
It really doesn't seem that much of a stretch to think that Putin trying to massively escalate into nuclear war territory would be evaded directly or indirectly.
Btw: check out this Wiki bio, you simply cannot make this stuff up:
"Axel Ernst-August Clamor Franz Albrecht Erich Leo Freiherr von dem Bussche-Streithorst"
was bound to have some kind of interesting life, but plotting to assasinate Adolf Hitler with a freakin' LAND MINE in his backpack and nearly having a real shot at it, you cannot make this up, "Truth is stranger than fiction?"
Re: Fascinating names see also: Isabella Fiorella Elettra Giovanna Rossellini.
He doesn’t have to go nuclear though. There’s so much they could do from the air that they haven’t because it doesn’t fit their fable of “liberating” the Ukrainian people. If he sells the story that they aren’t worth saving and are now a threat, I’m not sure anyone will stand up to that.
They're not doing much with their air force because, amazingly, they don't have air superiority. In the early days of the war, Ukraine shot down quite a few Russian jets with ground based anti-aircraft batteries, of which they apparently have a sufficient number that it scares the Russians enough to stay out of Ukrainian airspace. The batteries are highly mobile and can be moved quickly and repositioned and the Ukrainians are apparently well trained at not turning on their radars until the last minute so they aren't detected by planes dedicated to taking out anti-aircraft batteries by detecting their radar. Not a good thing for Russian pilots. Very good thing for Ukraine.
Thank you, Lucian, for continuing to write about Ukraine. Your articles about Ukraine or war in general are easily understood even by those non military folk like me.
Not me. I'm not terrified either of whar Trump might do when he's indicted, or what the MAGAts (who have at their collective disposal a truly terrifying arsenal of weapons) might do when Trump is cornered. What these people are capable of is indeed terrifying, but my being terrified isn't going to affect any of them one bit.
I am, however,. preetty damn worried about what will probably happen if the MAGA Republicans gain control of either House or Senate -- and gods help us if they win both -- in November. I do have a little influence on that, so that's where I'm focusing until the situation changes.
I really appreciate getting these very readable updates devoid of the granular analyses full of opaque geographical references I can’t relate to. But the good news, if it is that, is still shrouded in the fog of war. It’s certainly not too soon to worry about what Putin will do in the face of a humiliating defeat. I wish the Ukrainians much more success, and hope they inflict that humiliating defeat, but a monster like Putin will not accept it.
They are masters of spin for sure. If like in some movie they had to tell their people the truth for one day there'd be a new Russian revolution. Imagine if even Trump had to tell the truth for one day :) The only way he could avoid telling a lie would be to come down with laryngitis where he loses his voice completely.
Let this trending news continue to trend in this direction and pick up speed. I've read elsewhere that the Ukrainian forces are getting fabulously excellent training all around now and looks like they care enough about saving their country to up their game all the way to the top.
Thanks in part to strong, ongoing support from the US and Europe. Seems to me that the break in the stalemate occurred after the deployment and highly effective use of the HIMARS missiles. I read that Ukraine even used wooden decoys!
It’s so hard to digest the mountain of information about the war. (Even though I am emotionally invested in its day to day developments) So to have you Lucian give us these militarily cogent missives is amazing. Thank you.
Is it possible Putin is getting ready to bomb the hell out of Ukraine as he did in Chechnya. With rockets he could inflict serious pain. US air strikes forced an end to the Bosnian war. Would Putin really let go Ukraine?
I don't have a military background but I believe there is an expression "Hollow Force"? Seems like the Ukrainians are bursting Putin's empty military bubble! 👍👏🤞
Is anyone else terrified of what Putin might do as they suffer more losses?
It's unclear any truly unhinged orders from Vladimir Putin would be unquestioningly obeyed rather than meet condign delays, objections, queries, qualified approval stretched out over time.
Even Adolf Hitler had already managed to inspire actual conspiracies for a coup d'etat amongst some of his own generals, and with support from Canaris in the Abwehr, --- as early as 1938!
It's a mistake to simply assume Putin's hold on power is beyond sustaining serious damage, even from or maybe especially from, his own military.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassination_attempts_on_Adolf_Hitler
I hope you’re right.
Just summarizing a hopeful set of examples from history --- all tyrants naturally inspire disgust, and it is a sign of weakness and no kind of strength on the part of Putin that he must assassinate his opponents, arrest and imprison them, and is now reduced to having his official thugs threaten little old Russian grandmas who, albeit so far in small numbers, have organized some protests demanding to know where the hell their grandsons who have invaded Ukraine are! Dead or alive, imagine the gathering angst in the civilian poulation as Putin's mad adventure spirals further in the direction of defeat.
It really doesn't seem that much of a stretch to think that Putin trying to massively escalate into nuclear war territory would be evaded directly or indirectly.
Btw: check out this Wiki bio, you simply cannot make this stuff up:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axel_von_dem_Bussche
One might suspect anyone with a name like
"Axel Ernst-August Clamor Franz Albrecht Erich Leo Freiherr von dem Bussche-Streithorst"
was bound to have some kind of interesting life, but plotting to assasinate Adolf Hitler with a freakin' LAND MINE in his backpack and nearly having a real shot at it, you cannot make this up, "Truth is stranger than fiction?"
Re: Fascinating names see also: Isabella Fiorella Elettra Giovanna Rossellini.
He doesn’t have to go nuclear though. There’s so much they could do from the air that they haven’t because it doesn’t fit their fable of “liberating” the Ukrainian people. If he sells the story that they aren’t worth saving and are now a threat, I’m not sure anyone will stand up to that.
They're not doing much with their air force because, amazingly, they don't have air superiority. In the early days of the war, Ukraine shot down quite a few Russian jets with ground based anti-aircraft batteries, of which they apparently have a sufficient number that it scares the Russians enough to stay out of Ukrainian airspace. The batteries are highly mobile and can be moved quickly and repositioned and the Ukrainians are apparently well trained at not turning on their radars until the last minute so they aren't detected by planes dedicated to taking out anti-aircraft batteries by detecting their radar. Not a good thing for Russian pilots. Very good thing for Ukraine.
Maybe I’m trapped in Cold War imagery, but don’t they have high-altitude bombers? City-leveling stuff?
Thank you, Lucian, for continuing to write about Ukraine. Your articles about Ukraine or war in general are easily understood even by those non military folk like me.
Very close to what my husband (30 year USAF, retired) said as I shared this latest.
Not me. I'm not terrified either of whar Trump might do when he's indicted, or what the MAGAts (who have at their collective disposal a truly terrifying arsenal of weapons) might do when Trump is cornered. What these people are capable of is indeed terrifying, but my being terrified isn't going to affect any of them one bit.
I am, however,. preetty damn worried about what will probably happen if the MAGA Republicans gain control of either House or Senate -- and gods help us if they win both -- in November. I do have a little influence on that, so that's where I'm focusing until the situation changes.
I appreciate these briefs. They put what’s happening into context. Thank you!
I really appreciate getting these very readable updates devoid of the granular analyses full of opaque geographical references I can’t relate to. But the good news, if it is that, is still shrouded in the fog of war. It’s certainly not too soon to worry about what Putin will do in the face of a humiliating defeat. I wish the Ukrainians much more success, and hope they inflict that humiliating defeat, but a monster like Putin will not accept it.
At this point it is totally irrelevant to worry about what Putin may or not do if defeated. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
Exactly. Meanwhile, those of us in the U.S. would do better to focus on the midterm elections.
Wapo reports Russians in retreat from Izyum...Momentum shift on multiple fronts, accelerating. Looking forward to your next dispatch, LKTIV.
I find this news about the war extremely interesting and I cannot thank you enough for your newsletter.
What great news! Thanks so much for keeping us updated.
“Strategic Retreat”.
Just like his buddy with the Clown Hair, Putin will never admit defeat even if the Ukraine flag were to show up on Russian territory.
They are masters of spin for sure. If like in some movie they had to tell their people the truth for one day there'd be a new Russian revolution. Imagine if even Trump had to tell the truth for one day :) The only way he could avoid telling a lie would be to come down with laryngitis where he loses his voice completely.
Let this trending news continue to trend in this direction and pick up speed. I've read elsewhere that the Ukrainian forces are getting fabulously excellent training all around now and looks like they care enough about saving their country to up their game all the way to the top.
Thanks in part to strong, ongoing support from the US and Europe. Seems to me that the break in the stalemate occurred after the deployment and highly effective use of the HIMARS missiles. I read that Ukraine even used wooden decoys!
It’s so hard to digest the mountain of information about the war. (Even though I am emotionally invested in its day to day developments) So to have you Lucian give us these militarily cogent missives is amazing. Thank you.
Good news! Thank you!
Is it possible Putin is getting ready to bomb the hell out of Ukraine as he did in Chechnya. With rockets he could inflict serious pain. US air strikes forced an end to the Bosnian war. Would Putin really let go Ukraine?
yes, that's a worrisome possibility that he would petulantly take the loser's tack of "if i can't have it nobody will have it" whole.
Thanks for the update!
I don't have a military background but I believe there is an expression "Hollow Force"? Seems like the Ukrainians are bursting Putin's empty military bubble! 👍👏🤞