All 27 member states of the European Union will close their airspace not only to Russian commercial aircraft, but to private planes and chartered aircraft, including business jets, from Russia.
It will be interesting to see how the talks go between Russia and Ukraine. I am sure Putin's opening offer will be to Immediately stop his offensive if Ukraine surrenders unconditionally and installs a puppet government headed by someone he suggests might be a worthy leader of the new state of Ukraine.
If I were Zelinsky my opening offer would be for Russia to immediately withdraw ALL its forces including the little green men posing as separatists in the Donbass. But, I would also insist on reparations for the damage done., Say a couple hundred billion dollars. Putin can dig up that much from the oil and gas he will continue to sell the EU.
The longer he stays in Ukraine the more he is going to bleed, literally and figuratively. He will not come out until he realizes he has opened a giant sucking chest wound for the Red Army and the Ukrainians are going to resist with money and, yes, arms from the West. He is in quick sand. Will his survival instincts overcome his hubris and megalomania? We shall see, won't we?
Russia should pay CONSIDERABLE REPARATIONS for damages done. Remember—Russia has already severely, catastrophically damaged the Ukrainian bread basket at Chernobyl.
Perhaps it would be a good time to enforce all sanctions until Russia ends its illegal invasion/occupation of Ukraine including Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk.
In the 18th century, a common military strategy was to leave a 'Golden Bridge' to an enemy, so they could retreat if things went south for them. Sounds like Vladimir is about to need one. Now, if there's no diesel fuel, Ukraine may have the makings of a fine armored force. We can only hope.
I almost surely have my eye on the wrong balls, but I cant stop imagining what Alexander and Yevgeny Vindman are doing right now? Tweet by Yevgeny:
Yevgeny Vindman
"I’m seeing the faces of the Russian MOD Shoygu and CJCS Gerasimov and they look incredibly stressed. They are being ordered to raise their nuclear posture by a Lunatic. When do they start planning the palace coup?"
although none of this is remotely funny, that whole thing about banning those nonexistent Delta flights is definitely a setup for a joke, perhaps in better times....
It isn’t at all funny and is still a terrifying situation. That said…I must concur…and in doing so, my dark humor also picked up on the banning of RT and wondering how Europe will get the US take on things when not given Tucker Carlson’s stance.
This has me thinking about the Cuban Missile Crisis (I was 11 years old at the time and scared to death): "Putin is probably right now looking for a way to get out of the box he’s built around himself with a minimum amount of humiliation. I hope the U.S. and Ukraine are both looking for a way to help him."
I'm thinking of President Kennedy and his advisers who, no matter how flawed, made it possible for Khrushchev et al. to get out of *their* box. This is 100% the way to go, the only way to go. The victors, and those with the moral authority, do not need to rub it in. I think President Biden and the European and other world leaders get this. Bless you for saying so.
“As over 100,000 rally for Ukraine, Germany announces vast defense spending increase that may upend European security policy
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the most populous nation in the European Union, had long frustrated the United States and allies across the continent with its hesitation to invest more in its military.”
This comment thread is the only semblance of “social” media I participate in anymore, and I must say- when you “get your West Point hat on”, so to speak, your insights are invaluable- you’re like a compass! . Thank you, Lucian.
I disagree with you about allowing Putin to turn tail. The longer this goes on the more likely that the military and the billionaire kleptocrats will remove him from power. The troops will be out of fuel and food with no way to be resupplied. Turns out that it was only in his own mind that Putin was a brilliant military tachtician.
It was late on Thursday that I got a flash that Putin would be executed. I agree with you that, if he is removed from power, it is likely to come from inside Russia.
Could wind up being a short war after all -- won't end well for Putin to preside over a military fiasco. He's going to wind up with Ukraine in NATO double-quick now, and a seething, resentful Russian establishment and disaffected citizenry. Might ease the way for new leadership? But things could always get worse. I, too, hope the West doesn't paint him into such a corner that he lashes out with nukes somewhere in some horrible "demonstration" of resolve or vengeance.
it's the time now to ease off a very little bit on beating the war drums to allow Ukraine and russia to talk. putin has been put in an awkward position where he had miscounted the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian people such that his attack had been slowed, taking from him the glory and the rush of victory upon which he counted to regain possession of *the* Ukraine.
with the evergrowing resolve of the European nations, combined with support from other countries all around the globe, putin is finding himself stuck in the middle of a chess game with few or no good moves to save face. he may be seeing he not only might not have a victory parade back home, he might not have a home where he would even be welcome.
this makes him a desperate and dangerous man. one who may not have the fear of worldwide condemnation if he takes dangerous offensive steps.
i recently read an article that discussed how the nuclear MAD doctrine may actually lead directly to the use of now widely available tactical intermediate range weapons. putin might gambit that using lower (relatively) explosive power would not raise the calamitous horror and outcry of huge ICBM launches. he may count on other equally armed nations to be sane and decent to not respond with a similar measured action. if he is pressed from all sides and in danger of losing his seat of presidency he just might choose a wild unprecedented move.
“ It is exceedingly rare to designate a head of state and reflects the depth of our concerns. President Putin joins a very small group that includes Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Mu'ammar Gaddafi of Libya, and Bashar al-Assad of Syria,” it continued. “
It will be interesting to see how the talks go between Russia and Ukraine. I am sure Putin's opening offer will be to Immediately stop his offensive if Ukraine surrenders unconditionally and installs a puppet government headed by someone he suggests might be a worthy leader of the new state of Ukraine.
If I were Zelinsky my opening offer would be for Russia to immediately withdraw ALL its forces including the little green men posing as separatists in the Donbass. But, I would also insist on reparations for the damage done., Say a couple hundred billion dollars. Putin can dig up that much from the oil and gas he will continue to sell the EU.
The longer he stays in Ukraine the more he is going to bleed, literally and figuratively. He will not come out until he realizes he has opened a giant sucking chest wound for the Red Army and the Ukrainians are going to resist with money and, yes, arms from the West. He is in quick sand. Will his survival instincts overcome his hubris and megalomania? We shall see, won't we?
Russia should pay CONSIDERABLE REPARATIONS for damages done. Remember—Russia has already severely, catastrophically damaged the Ukrainian bread basket at Chernobyl.
Perhaps it would be a good time to enforce all sanctions until Russia ends its illegal invasion/occupation of Ukraine including Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk.
In the 18th century, a common military strategy was to leave a 'Golden Bridge' to an enemy, so they could retreat if things went south for them. Sounds like Vladimir is about to need one. Now, if there's no diesel fuel, Ukraine may have the makings of a fine armored force. We can only hope.
I almost surely have my eye on the wrong balls, but I cant stop imagining what Alexander and Yevgeny Vindman are doing right now? Tweet by Yevgeny:
Yevgeny Vindman
"I’m seeing the faces of the Russian MOD Shoygu and CJCS Gerasimov and they look incredibly stressed. They are being ordered to raise their nuclear posture by a Lunatic. When do they start planning the palace coup?"
Nice thought. I’m right there with you.
Doesn’t it remind you a little bit of the senior officials around the former guy in the WH?
although none of this is remotely funny, that whole thing about banning those nonexistent Delta flights is definitely a setup for a joke, perhaps in better times....
It isn’t at all funny and is still a terrifying situation. That said…I must concur…and in doing so, my dark humor also picked up on the banning of RT and wondering how Europe will get the US take on things when not given Tucker Carlson’s stance.
This has me thinking about the Cuban Missile Crisis (I was 11 years old at the time and scared to death): "Putin is probably right now looking for a way to get out of the box he’s built around himself with a minimum amount of humiliation. I hope the U.S. and Ukraine are both looking for a way to help him."
I'm thinking of President Kennedy and his advisers who, no matter how flawed, made it possible for Khrushchev et al. to get out of *their* box. This is 100% the way to go, the only way to go. The victors, and those with the moral authority, do not need to rub it in. I think President Biden and the European and other world leaders get this. Bless you for saying so.
Lucian, you’re either incredibly prescient, or many in the EU read your newsletter of two days ago.
Everyone in Europe is reacting strongly
“As over 100,000 rally for Ukraine, Germany announces vast defense spending increase that may upend European security policy
Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and the most populous nation in the European Union, had long frustrated the United States and allies across the continent with its hesitation to invest more in its military.”
By Rick Noack, Emily Rauhala and Griff Witte
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/europe-germany-defense-russia-ukraine/
This comment thread is the only semblance of “social” media I participate in anymore, and I must say- when you “get your West Point hat on”, so to speak, your insights are invaluable- you’re like a compass! . Thank you, Lucian.
I disagree with you about allowing Putin to turn tail. The longer this goes on the more likely that the military and the billionaire kleptocrats will remove him from power. The troops will be out of fuel and food with no way to be resupplied. Turns out that it was only in his own mind that Putin was a brilliant military tachtician.
It was late on Thursday that I got a flash that Putin would be executed. I agree with you that, if he is removed from power, it is likely to come from inside Russia.
Could wind up being a short war after all -- won't end well for Putin to preside over a military fiasco. He's going to wind up with Ukraine in NATO double-quick now, and a seething, resentful Russian establishment and disaffected citizenry. Might ease the way for new leadership? But things could always get worse. I, too, hope the West doesn't paint him into such a corner that he lashes out with nukes somewhere in some horrible "demonstration" of resolve or vengeance.
yes.
it's the time now to ease off a very little bit on beating the war drums to allow Ukraine and russia to talk. putin has been put in an awkward position where he had miscounted the resolve and capability of the Ukrainian people such that his attack had been slowed, taking from him the glory and the rush of victory upon which he counted to regain possession of *the* Ukraine.
with the evergrowing resolve of the European nations, combined with support from other countries all around the globe, putin is finding himself stuck in the middle of a chess game with few or no good moves to save face. he may be seeing he not only might not have a victory parade back home, he might not have a home where he would even be welcome.
this makes him a desperate and dangerous man. one who may not have the fear of worldwide condemnation if he takes dangerous offensive steps.
i recently read an article that discussed how the nuclear MAD doctrine may actually lead directly to the use of now widely available tactical intermediate range weapons. putin might gambit that using lower (relatively) explosive power would not raise the calamitous horror and outcry of huge ICBM launches. he may count on other equally armed nations to be sane and decent to not respond with a similar measured action. if he is pressed from all sides and in danger of losing his seat of presidency he just might choose a wild unprecedented move.
I just heard from a reputable journalist that the USA has raised DEFCON to level 2. Can you confirm?
I don’t advise answering that question here on a public forum.
Thank you, Bora, for understanding. (He ❤️‘ed my post)
Australia is imposing sanctions.
“ It is exceedingly rare to designate a head of state and reflects the depth of our concerns. President Putin joins a very small group that includes Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, Mu'ammar Gaddafi of Libya, and Bashar al-Assad of Syria,” it continued. “
From CNN's Hannah Ritchie in Sydney, Australia
Your lips to God’s ears. I do think she’s listening.
When I read the title and the first few lines, I started to cry. The Russians are going to get their country back. 😭
🎉🎉💕🎉🎉