By now, you have probably read about or seen news of the huge attack out of Gaza on Israel by Hamas militants. At this writing, Hamas has fired over 2,500 ground-to-ground rockets into Israel. It was said to be such a massive missile attack, nearly all at once, that it overwhelmed Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome missile defense system, and many Hamas missiles got through and have damaged buildings and killed civilians in towns all over southern Israel.
A polarized Israel whose citizens are putting their energies into hating each other, and supporting (or trying to protect themselves against) idiot politicians in it for themselves or their cliques…is a very vulnerable Israel.
Just look at the crap Israelis have been devoting their social and political bandwidth to. Sort of familiar, right?
This wasted energy will cost the United States dearly, if not destroy us. This is why it is my mission to tell every person I meet what the consequences will be if the orange traitor is elected...he will be our Netanyahu, a hateful, right wing maniac and indicted criminal, with no regard for his people as a whole, and willing to tolerate war no matter how many get killed.
Keeping in mind that one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter, I do not condone the attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians in any way. They can attack the Israeli military and the occupation forces at will, but civilians are off limits. The same goes for the Israelis.
That said, the Palestinians have more than a little reason to be fed up with the Israeli occupiers both in Gaza (which Israel has turned into a prison) and the West Bank. They are treated as stateless and second class, not even citizens in their ancestral lands. And Netanyahu has taken a bad situation and made it so much worse. If any good comes from this conflict, it will be that he is removed from office and never seen again on the world. stage.
I agree that that plays a major role in what's happening in the Middle East more broadly but also, Israel itself has sown the seeds that has resulted in this latest drastic attack by Hamas. As it set itself up for the Syrian and Egyptian efforts to regain land Israel took from those countries in the 1967 "Six Day War". And its persistence in treating Palestinians as non-citizens and stealing their land and homes in the West Bank.
Post-WW II Jews settled in Palestine in 1948 and have been taking land from and disrespecting the inhabitants of that land as "lesser beings" for 75 years.
Oh, the tensions started well before that, during the Versailles negotiations after WWI and into the Mandatory period. And as to why so many Jews settled in Palestine after WWII -- the Holocaust had something to do with that, don't you think? Periodic pogroms in Russia and eastern Europe before WWI helped spur the Balfour Declaration (1917), in which the British government "view[ed] with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people." The caveat about doing nothing to "prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine" was a loophole you could drive a semi through; IIRC "existing non-Jewish communities" made up about 93% of the population at the time. In effect, European countries used Palestine to provide reparations to Jews for the crimes committed by Russia, Germany, et al.
I knew all of that which is why I began my comment by agreeing with your own comment. However, that is not the sole source of tensions despite being a huge inflection point.
Glad to hear it. I wasn't sure. My first thought was that you might be a Holocaust denier, but my second thought was, no way a Holocaust denier would be on this Substack. I still don't quite believe you know enough to realize how what a long history this FUBAR situation has, but if you're willing to learn, I'm good.
What?? What on earth have I written that would give even the impression that I might be a Holocaust Denier? I also take issue with your comment that I don't quite know enough.... that's a pretty unfair assumption.
And yet the "true believers" all unite in saying how evil atheists are. And to a man they all say that without religion one would not act in a moral fashion for the good of their fellow man.
Many hours of experts, on CNN and MSNBC, often interesting commentary. But not until 9:30 tonight, reading this column, did I have a comprehensive history of the conflict. Count on Lucian K. Truscott IV to cut to the chase. Can’t imagine not having my Substack subscriptions.
Fifty years ago almost to the day my relaxed sunny and warm fall afternoon on Kibbutz Shaar Haamakim near Haifa – where Jewish socialist Bernie Sanders spent time 10 years before – was suddenly rattled by Israeli Phantom fighters scrambling to the Golan Heights, flying directly overhead, hugging the ground so tightly I could see the bolts on their wings. In a way today I feel deja vu all over again, to quote the great ball player and master of the mangled lexicon Yogi Berra. I believe the '73 Yom Kippur surprise is the primary causal event that led to Israeli intransigence on Palestinian statehood. After '67, they thought that "defensible borders" and the nukes no one ever much talks about (though an open "secret" in Israel) had finally brought them peace – illusion shattered.
Uprisings against opression like Northern Ireland and South African apartheid can't be defeated by the methods and weapons of warfare. Living through a war in Israel some too-close-for-comfort 80 klicks from the Golan battlefield imbued in me a love for the nation and the original mission of Zionism. But I hate its policies on the Palestinians and West Bank land grab. Statehood – now! – is the only solution.
I’m so sad and so angry. Being an American Jew, I have loyalty to America of course. I also have a heart in Israel. When I visited Israel, as I was leaving, the customs person asked if I was an Israeli citizen as well. If I had an Israeli passport. That is when I learned as a Jew, I could claim Israeli citizenship as well if I wanted to. A place of refuge if ever needed.
At that point , my appreciation for the Israeli State increased ten fold. We always supported Israel, but I realized then that Israel would take me in if needed. My heart is breaking for the Israeli citizens today.
Thanks for pulling together, and backgrounding breaking news. I have come to believe this is a blood libel and will not end until one or the other entities is annihilated.
I think of that LA Black man, Rodney King, who was brutalized and seriously injured by the LAPD. He said, knowingly or not, what MLK (no relation) had said: "Why can't we just get along?"
It appears to be the nature of man to fight and war over land and resources, and of course, belief systems. Ever was it this. Amen.
Why wasn’t Israel prepared? Hamas and its benefactor, Iran want to stir things up to prevent the pending mutual recognition between Israel and Saudi Arabis, their sworn enemies. This was as predictable as it is despicable
Read up on the conditions in Gaza. Israel controls their electricity and I think their water too. They will withdraw electric as a punishment.
Really stupid for a safe haven for Jews to be created in that area. They could have had half of Saskatchewan. Plenty of room, zero hostility beyond run of the mill religious bigotry and the intolerance of Ducks Unlimited.
There were many places around the world proposed for a Jewish state in the early years of Zionism; the weirdest being islands in the Niagara River above the falls. I jest that we should have given them Florida and/or Long Island, both with major Jewish settlement already.
Those places were already pretty heavily populated. But vast vast stretches of good land in the Prairie provinces of Canada were pretty empty. Very few indigenous people in those areas too. I was born in Saskatchewan and I would read, rapturously about how Jews "made the desert bloom" in Israel. I'd look at the stretch of bare land behind my house hoping that some might build a settlement there one day. But I get that they'd want to be in their traditional holy lands too. Sad that the holy lands are so unholy.
Unfortunately that's the way the US is trending, following the lead of other tribal nations. I figure if Trump is elected, he will declare himself emperor too, or pass his presidency on to Trump Junior to start a new Theocratic Aristocracy.
What gave you that impression? I am saddened by it but also annoyed by it, when it could have been so easily avoided, decades ago. But que sera sera. Maybe in the grand scheme of things it's meant to be.
One small thing to add that was not in your comprehensive review of the Israel/Hamas/Syria/Jordan dance of death.
When my husband was in the army (ending in 1971) the reason his orders for Vietnam were pulled back at the last minute was that his unit went on alert sometime in either that year or late 1970 because (purportedly) another invasion of Israel had been threatened, restricting him and i have no idea how many others in his infantry division to the base - or at other times not to be more than 10 minutes from there - spending nights on a tarmac in full gear ready to be airlifted to Germany to stand by because (it was rumored) the Soviet Union was going to lend a direct hand to Egypt this time. Have no way to substantiate this with facts, was a very young army wife with other wives figuring out WTH was happening. Upside was that the alert lasted long enough for him to be too short-timed to be shipped for a full tour in Viêt Nam. I’m grateful for that.
Remember it well. It was called the "Jordan Alert." When Palestinians in Jordan threatened to revolt and attack Israel...or something like that. It's a bit foggy in my memory.
Thank you for this. I haven’t had a chance to write today because I have been too busy. The Hamas attack was brilliantly executed and has given them tactical, strategic, and political advantages they never had. They took advantage of the chaos in Israel’s domestic political situation as well as ours (thank you GOP radicals) to make this attack. They achieved tactical and operational surprise and as you said their goal was not seizing territory, but hostages which will hamstring any Israeli response, unless they chose to disregard losing them and simply strike back as hard as they can. The hostages will complicate Israeli politics, as nobody in Israel wants to loose anyone to terrorists.
The specter of the 1973 Yom Kippur war hangs over Israel as they were completely surprised by the Egyptian and Syrian attacks at that time. The tactical and operational surprise reflects badly on the MOSAD and Shin Beth intelligence services, and likewise US intelligence as nobody saw this coming. The Israelis have a difficult series of choices ahead, and their military decisions will be influenced by political realities. It is likely that the Netanyahu government will fall, especially since his whole political persona is based on being tough against terror.
Politically, the attack undermines Netanyahu, especially because his policies undercut support he has in the military and intelligence services. The 1973 war resulted in the downfall of the government of Golda Meir. It also probably delays the attempts of the Israelis, Saudis, and us to normalize relations. Through Hamas, the Palestinians have managed to put themselves into the broader strategic picture for the first time in decades. Likewise, our political situation hinders our response, especially since the House GOP has prevented the Defense appropriations bill from being passed, and Tommy Tuberville’s hold on critical military promotions has meant that key positions are not filled, preventing the military from setting policy and being able to quickly respond.
Strategically, Hamas, already supported by Iran is encouraging attacks on Israel by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. Since Hezbollah is also supported by Iran, and is much more of a military power, should they join hostilities against Israel will risk the war spreading into Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
Psychologically, Hamas has shaken the belief in Israel and its allies in its invulnerability. No matter what happens, like 1973 will leave long term scars and doubts among all parts of the Israeli body politic.
Hamas wants Israel to overreact, and bring about a wider regional war. In 1973 the world came as close as it ever has to a nuclear war, not just in the Middle East, but between the United States and the Soviet Union. As in 1973 others, beginning with Iran, but not to exclude Russia, have an interest is destabilizing the region. A broader war in the Middle East could divert American and European aid from Ukraine, even as Russia, via Serbia is seeking to destabilize the Balkans. A final consideration is that China could use this as an opportunity to attack Taiwan, or North Korea an opportunity to create more instability in North Asia.
The situation is complex and dangerous. Barbara Tuchman wrote about the outbreak of the First World War, “ One constant among the elements of 1914—as of any era—was the disposition of everyone on all sides not to prepare for the harder alternative, not to act upon what they suspected to be true.”
It took Israel 5 years to get Gilad Shalit released and for that one poor soul, 1,027 terrorists were returned. Probably some of them were involved in today's massacre. I can only hope it was a suicide mission and that Israel hunts down and assassinates every single one of them for their barbarism towards civilians, including elderly, women and children.
Given the current political dissent in Israel over the right’s attempt to consolidate more power it would appear the Israeli left will now close ranks . National survival is at stake.
I saw one piece of film where the IDF used a couple of their bunker buster bombs on a ten to twelve story residential building in Gaza. There are going to be one hell of a lot of Pllstinisns in that rubble.
Awful for Gaza. There are millions of people there and I imagine very few of them are actively engaged in the latest act of carnage. Civilians should always be completely off limits.
Although, they have taken a lot of hostages. Not sure I would call this a suicide mission. There's people dying on both sides, and, likely, Palestinians out of harm's way directing operations.
A polarized Israel whose citizens are putting their energies into hating each other, and supporting (or trying to protect themselves against) idiot politicians in it for themselves or their cliques…is a very vulnerable Israel.
Just look at the crap Israelis have been devoting their social and political bandwidth to. Sort of familiar, right?
Sort of distracts from real challenges, right?
Lots of lessons here.
"A polarized Israel whose citizens are putting their energies into hating each other..." Sounds a lot like the current state of affairs in the US.
This wasted energy will cost the United States dearly, if not destroy us. This is why it is my mission to tell every person I meet what the consequences will be if the orange traitor is elected...he will be our Netanyahu, a hateful, right wing maniac and indicted criminal, with no regard for his people as a whole, and willing to tolerate war no matter how many get killed.
The hate in America has got to stop.
Yea most countries—- but yes the You S fuckin’A
Keeping in mind that one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter, I do not condone the attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians in any way. They can attack the Israeli military and the occupation forces at will, but civilians are off limits. The same goes for the Israelis.
That said, the Palestinians have more than a little reason to be fed up with the Israeli occupiers both in Gaza (which Israel has turned into a prison) and the West Bank. They are treated as stateless and second class, not even citizens in their ancestral lands. And Netanyahu has taken a bad situation and made it so much worse. If any good comes from this conflict, it will be that he is removed from office and never seen again on the world. stage.
One can hope.
That this is the outcome of the influence of three of the world's foremost religions does not speak well for an Almighty.
Fighting over who has the better imaginary friend has never been without peril.
No nickel under my pillow this morning
👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻😎
The Almighty has not a thing to do with self-serving, man made religions.
On the whole I believe the imperial ambitions of the British and French after WWI have more to do with it.
I agree that that plays a major role in what's happening in the Middle East more broadly but also, Israel itself has sown the seeds that has resulted in this latest drastic attack by Hamas. As it set itself up for the Syrian and Egyptian efforts to regain land Israel took from those countries in the 1967 "Six Day War". And its persistence in treating Palestinians as non-citizens and stealing their land and homes in the West Bank.
Post-WW II Jews settled in Palestine in 1948 and have been taking land from and disrespecting the inhabitants of that land as "lesser beings" for 75 years.
Oh, the tensions started well before that, during the Versailles negotiations after WWI and into the Mandatory period. And as to why so many Jews settled in Palestine after WWII -- the Holocaust had something to do with that, don't you think? Periodic pogroms in Russia and eastern Europe before WWI helped spur the Balfour Declaration (1917), in which the British government "view[ed] with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people." The caveat about doing nothing to "prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine" was a loophole you could drive a semi through; IIRC "existing non-Jewish communities" made up about 93% of the population at the time. In effect, European countries used Palestine to provide reparations to Jews for the crimes committed by Russia, Germany, et al.
I knew all of that which is why I began my comment by agreeing with your own comment. However, that is not the sole source of tensions despite being a huge inflection point.
Glad to hear it. I wasn't sure. My first thought was that you might be a Holocaust denier, but my second thought was, no way a Holocaust denier would be on this Substack. I still don't quite believe you know enough to realize how what a long history this FUBAR situation has, but if you're willing to learn, I'm good.
What?? What on earth have I written that would give even the impression that I might be a Holocaust Denier? I also take issue with your comment that I don't quite know enough.... that's a pretty unfair assumption.
And yet the "true believers" all unite in saying how evil atheists are. And to a man they all say that without religion one would not act in a moral fashion for the good of their fellow man.
Been there, done that, played it their way. Total hogwash.
Lucian, again it's columns like this that make me glad to be a subscriber. Best analysis anywhere!
Totally agree...You should have been on MSNBC or other responsible news outlet to explain it to America.
Many hours of experts, on CNN and MSNBC, often interesting commentary. But not until 9:30 tonight, reading this column, did I have a comprehensive history of the conflict. Count on Lucian K. Truscott IV to cut to the chase. Can’t imagine not having my Substack subscriptions.
Fifty years ago almost to the day my relaxed sunny and warm fall afternoon on Kibbutz Shaar Haamakim near Haifa – where Jewish socialist Bernie Sanders spent time 10 years before – was suddenly rattled by Israeli Phantom fighters scrambling to the Golan Heights, flying directly overhead, hugging the ground so tightly I could see the bolts on their wings. In a way today I feel deja vu all over again, to quote the great ball player and master of the mangled lexicon Yogi Berra. I believe the '73 Yom Kippur surprise is the primary causal event that led to Israeli intransigence on Palestinian statehood. After '67, they thought that "defensible borders" and the nukes no one ever much talks about (though an open "secret" in Israel) had finally brought them peace – illusion shattered.
Uprisings against opression like Northern Ireland and South African apartheid can't be defeated by the methods and weapons of warfare. Living through a war in Israel some too-close-for-comfort 80 klicks from the Golan battlefield imbued in me a love for the nation and the original mission of Zionism. But I hate its policies on the Palestinians and West Bank land grab. Statehood – now! – is the only solution.
Shalom! Salaam!
Excellent as usual.
While supporting Israel’s right to a peaceful existence I think the right wants victory not peace.
The imbalance feeds that mirage.
Peace requires accepting there is no victory. By both sides.
I’m so sad and so angry. Being an American Jew, I have loyalty to America of course. I also have a heart in Israel. When I visited Israel, as I was leaving, the customs person asked if I was an Israeli citizen as well. If I had an Israeli passport. That is when I learned as a Jew, I could claim Israeli citizenship as well if I wanted to. A place of refuge if ever needed.
At that point , my appreciation for the Israeli State increased ten fold. We always supported Israel, but I realized then that Israel would take me in if needed. My heart is breaking for the Israeli citizens today.
Thanks for pulling together, and backgrounding breaking news. I have come to believe this is a blood libel and will not end until one or the other entities is annihilated.
I think of that LA Black man, Rodney King, who was brutalized and seriously injured by the LAPD. He said, knowingly or not, what MLK (no relation) had said: "Why can't we just get along?"
It appears to be the nature of man to fight and war over land and resources, and of course, belief systems. Ever was it this. Amen.
Belief systems provide a good cover story for expansionism.
So it would seem.
Why wasn’t Israel prepared? Hamas and its benefactor, Iran want to stir things up to prevent the pending mutual recognition between Israel and Saudi Arabis, their sworn enemies. This was as predictable as it is despicable
Then there’s Russia’s shadow players in the ever present shitshow that makes up the never-ending wars of the Middle East.
Read up on the conditions in Gaza. Israel controls their electricity and I think their water too. They will withdraw electric as a punishment.
Really stupid for a safe haven for Jews to be created in that area. They could have had half of Saskatchewan. Plenty of room, zero hostility beyond run of the mill religious bigotry and the intolerance of Ducks Unlimited.
There were many places around the world proposed for a Jewish state in the early years of Zionism; the weirdest being islands in the Niagara River above the falls. I jest that we should have given them Florida and/or Long Island, both with major Jewish settlement already.
Those places were already pretty heavily populated. But vast vast stretches of good land in the Prairie provinces of Canada were pretty empty. Very few indigenous people in those areas too. I was born in Saskatchewan and I would read, rapturously about how Jews "made the desert bloom" in Israel. I'd look at the stretch of bare land behind my house hoping that some might build a settlement there one day. But I get that they'd want to be in their traditional holy lands too. Sad that the holy lands are so unholy.
Some think the creation of Religious Nations are not a good thing.
Unfortunately that's the way the US is trending, following the lead of other tribal nations. I figure if Trump is elected, he will declare himself emperor too, or pass his presidency on to Trump Junior to start a new Theocratic Aristocracy.
You think this is funny? It says a great deal about you.
What gave you that impression? I am saddened by it but also annoyed by it, when it could have been so easily avoided, decades ago. But que sera sera. Maybe in the grand scheme of things it's meant to be.
"Meant to be" as in safe haven for Jews in the Holy Land.
One small thing to add that was not in your comprehensive review of the Israel/Hamas/Syria/Jordan dance of death.
When my husband was in the army (ending in 1971) the reason his orders for Vietnam were pulled back at the last minute was that his unit went on alert sometime in either that year or late 1970 because (purportedly) another invasion of Israel had been threatened, restricting him and i have no idea how many others in his infantry division to the base - or at other times not to be more than 10 minutes from there - spending nights on a tarmac in full gear ready to be airlifted to Germany to stand by because (it was rumored) the Soviet Union was going to lend a direct hand to Egypt this time. Have no way to substantiate this with facts, was a very young army wife with other wives figuring out WTH was happening. Upside was that the alert lasted long enough for him to be too short-timed to be shipped for a full tour in Viêt Nam. I’m grateful for that.
Remember it well. It was called the "Jordan Alert." When Palestinians in Jordan threatened to revolt and attack Israel...or something like that. It's a bit foggy in my memory.
How incredibly sad for everyone. Killing each other doesn't solve problems. It just assures retaliation. And the cycle continues.
Lucian,
Thank you for this. I haven’t had a chance to write today because I have been too busy. The Hamas attack was brilliantly executed and has given them tactical, strategic, and political advantages they never had. They took advantage of the chaos in Israel’s domestic political situation as well as ours (thank you GOP radicals) to make this attack. They achieved tactical and operational surprise and as you said their goal was not seizing territory, but hostages which will hamstring any Israeli response, unless they chose to disregard losing them and simply strike back as hard as they can. The hostages will complicate Israeli politics, as nobody in Israel wants to loose anyone to terrorists.
The specter of the 1973 Yom Kippur war hangs over Israel as they were completely surprised by the Egyptian and Syrian attacks at that time. The tactical and operational surprise reflects badly on the MOSAD and Shin Beth intelligence services, and likewise US intelligence as nobody saw this coming. The Israelis have a difficult series of choices ahead, and their military decisions will be influenced by political realities. It is likely that the Netanyahu government will fall, especially since his whole political persona is based on being tough against terror.
Politically, the attack undermines Netanyahu, especially because his policies undercut support he has in the military and intelligence services. The 1973 war resulted in the downfall of the government of Golda Meir. It also probably delays the attempts of the Israelis, Saudis, and us to normalize relations. Through Hamas, the Palestinians have managed to put themselves into the broader strategic picture for the first time in decades. Likewise, our political situation hinders our response, especially since the House GOP has prevented the Defense appropriations bill from being passed, and Tommy Tuberville’s hold on critical military promotions has meant that key positions are not filled, preventing the military from setting policy and being able to quickly respond.
Strategically, Hamas, already supported by Iran is encouraging attacks on Israel by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria. Since Hezbollah is also supported by Iran, and is much more of a military power, should they join hostilities against Israel will risk the war spreading into Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan.
Psychologically, Hamas has shaken the belief in Israel and its allies in its invulnerability. No matter what happens, like 1973 will leave long term scars and doubts among all parts of the Israeli body politic.
Hamas wants Israel to overreact, and bring about a wider regional war. In 1973 the world came as close as it ever has to a nuclear war, not just in the Middle East, but between the United States and the Soviet Union. As in 1973 others, beginning with Iran, but not to exclude Russia, have an interest is destabilizing the region. A broader war in the Middle East could divert American and European aid from Ukraine, even as Russia, via Serbia is seeking to destabilize the Balkans. A final consideration is that China could use this as an opportunity to attack Taiwan, or North Korea an opportunity to create more instability in North Asia.
The situation is complex and dangerous. Barbara Tuchman wrote about the outbreak of the First World War, “ One constant among the elements of 1914—as of any era—was the disposition of everyone on all sides not to prepare for the harder alternative, not to act upon what they suspected to be true.”
As always, thank you, and please be safe.
Peace,
Steve
Steven, good points. I agree destabilization is a big factor here.
It took Israel 5 years to get Gilad Shalit released and for that one poor soul, 1,027 terrorists were returned. Probably some of them were involved in today's massacre. I can only hope it was a suicide mission and that Israel hunts down and assassinates every single one of them for their barbarism towards civilians, including elderly, women and children.
Because more loss of life is the answer. So much hate.
Thanks Lucian. I have only one word: mind-boggling.
Given the current political dissent in Israel over the right’s attempt to consolidate more power it would appear the Israeli left will now close ranks . National survival is at stake.
I saw one piece of film where the IDF used a couple of their bunker buster bombs on a ten to twelve story residential building in Gaza. There are going to be one hell of a lot of Pllstinisns in that rubble.
OBTW this “war” will never end.
Awful for Gaza. There are millions of people there and I imagine very few of them are actively engaged in the latest act of carnage. Civilians should always be completely off limits.
For Hamas, their civilians are ammunition.
Exactly! Palestinians are Hamas’ human shields. We saw that horrendous strategy used in Syria only a few years ago, if you recall.
Although, they have taken a lot of hostages. Not sure I would call this a suicide mission. There's people dying on both sides, and, likely, Palestinians out of harm's way directing operations.