71 Comments

Your newsletter is the best damned $60 I've spent in ages! Keep up the great work, LT4!

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Yes! As your expert columns roll out faster than Russian tanks this week (okay, poor analogy - you are moving, the tanks are not) I think you deserve extra combat pay. Sharing with friends and foes alike!

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The unintended consequences for Putin, today Olaf Scholtz has vowed to spend 2% of their budget in military and even codify it into their constitution. NATO is more united than ever and so is the EU. I'm am so impressed with Zelensky and his people for standing up to Putin's BS.

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That’s what I thought, but you back it up with concrete evidence. That’s why everybody in the country ought to be reading you.

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And let's bear in mind that March is a serious mud-month in that entire area - another calendared limitation on tanks.

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Feb 27, 2022·edited Feb 27, 2022

I just read a story on Democratic Underground about how former US Army tank operators are instructing the Ukrainians on how to disable the Russian tanks because that's what they were trained to fight. They know its vulnerabilities. I just love how the world is seeing Putin, Traitor Tot, and the Republican party for who/what they really are. Murderous thugs.

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Quislings, each and every one.

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Yes, this was a problem in WWII as well. They have a term for this weather condition, this mud season -- sapritsa? Something like that. It's a big concern for armored and mechanized units, which is even more the case now than in the 1940s.

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founding

Insanely detailed analysis. Should be on the front of NYT and WaPo.

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Let's keep in mind that panicking autocrats are at their most dangerous.

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Lucian, I sincerely hope everything you say about the Russians logistics problems are true. If they really are having problems with fuel & ammo this invasion could be short-lived. That said, I'm particularly concerned about Putin putting his nuclear strike forces on heightened alert. I'm sure it's an effort to intimidate us and NATO but if a mistake occurs it could have devastating consequences for a lot more than Ukraine. I recall while deployed to the Mediterranean in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War the U.S. elevated our DefCon from 5 (peacetime) to 3 (increased readiness for combat). That resulted in every one of our carrier attack & fighter aircraft flying with live ordnance (bombs & missiles). Our air wing Rules of Engagement were tweaked to ensure our pilots knew exactly what to do if/when they were targeted by fire control radars on Soviet naval combatants, of which there were many around my carrier and 2 others. There were moments when many of us thought we & the Russkies were going duke it out right there in the eastern Mediterranean. Fortunately, no hostile events occurred but tensions at the time were the highest I experienced in my 22 years of service. I'm starting to have some of those concerns now.

p.s. I agree w/Michael: this is the best $60 I've spent in a long time!!

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Zelensky has been a surprise, especially for Putin. By the way, does anyone remember that solo meeting between Trump and Putin in Helsinki? what would they talk about?

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Your work is exemplary, Lucien. I look forward every day to see your reporting. We stand with Ukraine. And we thank you

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Hoping that t-RUMP is frothing at his flaccid little mouth on seeing his hero Putin being battered.

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founding

And feeling the heat of days to come for himself. I'm sure he feels if Putin can pull this off, he can pull all his corruptions and criminalities will disappear as well.

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You wrote: "I saw one tweet this morning from a guy in Moscow who said his hotel had made him settle up his bill in advance because they know credit cards are going to stop working."

Last night I saw a reporter stationed in Moscow say exactly that - he had been asked to "settle up."

What do bullies do when cornered? What does a madman do when cornered? What does a narcissist consumed with hubris do when cornered? We've seen a lame version of it with tfg, but he was too stupid and inept to do anything more than double down. And our military refused to go along with his ideas of an overthrow.

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Unfortunately for us and the planet, this bully has a nuclear arsenal button at his fingertips. Any insights, Lucian, on whether or not Putin will launch the ultimate weapon?

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The Russian who forgets Finland and the Winter War is condemned to repeat it.

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Today Germany announced it was going to commit the nation to bulking up its armed forces capability. Maybe, in a warped way Putin did us and NATO a favor by invading Ukraine. He sent the message you can only defend your nation so far with soft power; that it is always a good idea to have some hard power standing by in case the bully makes the mistake of believing being the big bad wolf is enough to scare the sheep.

It has become apparent the Ukrainian people and their armed forces are going to put up a determined fight. I hope the reports in this article are correct and the Russian Bear simply can't be as tough as he says he is without logistical support. But, whatever these "negotiations" bring I hope we, as in President Biden, are 100% committed to getting as many Javelins and Stingers into the hands of the Ukrainian military as soon as possible. As Lucien says, a T-72 out of gas is a great target. A whole line of T-72s sitting on a road is a better one. Too bad someone with a fleet of B-2s couldn't drop several hundred JDAMs on them!

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founding

Your newsletter has more information than news channels. Thanks for your hard work.

Putin has to be stopped. Power to the Ukrainian people!

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Feb 27, 2022·edited Feb 27, 2022

Great update. Logistics doesn't win wars, but it can sure lose wars. We learned a big lesson about fuel during Desert Storm. I believe one of the key reasons we stopped the offensive at 100 hours is we were on the verge of running out of fuel in the 24th ID as it had moved too fast, too far for the XVIII ABN Corps to refuel them. By the time we went across the berm into Iraq in 2003 we had fixed that issue and were able to sustain fast movement further.

But this all takes a lot of brain power, manpower, equipment and a ton of money to have the logistics capability to support and Putin has too many tanks and not enough support units.

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"Smart" guy, eh? What say ye now, Orangina?

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Let’s ask Pompeo too.

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founding

If we get to watch a grand implosion of Putin, this will be as good as a grand implosion from Trump because once again, he's chinking away at his own effectiveness, though he ruled CPAC.

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