Donald Trump’s win in the Iowa caucus last night was described as a “landslide” (CNN); “sweeping” (New York Times); “dominant” (BBC), “dominates” (ABC News); “runaway” (Time); “commanding” (AP); “resounding” (Reuters); and so on. You would think that Trump is walking out of Iowa with a huge majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention, which is what the caucuses actually produce. Take a guess at how many delegates Donald Trump won last night? With 51 percent of the vote, he won twenty. Take a guess how many delegates are not pledged to Donald Trump after last night’s vote? With 49 percent of the vote going to other candidates on the Iowa ballot, that number is also twenty -- DeSantis won nine, Haley won eight, and Ramaswamy won three.
Thank you for articulating what I’ve been trying to analyse sitting here in my living room. I kept saying to myself “49% of the Republicans voted in opposition to Trump. That has to be good news!” Keep it going Lucian!
But the ones who didn’t vote for t-Rump voted for candidates just as bad or even worse than him! How is this good news? I don’t see many of them voting for Biden! I think they’ll hold their noses and vote GOP.
To put the Iowa GOP caucuses into perspective: 110,000 people voted in the caucuses. The average U.S. Congressional district has nearly seven times the population of the entire GOP caucus voting population. Yet watching TV or reading the newspaper, you'd have believed a vast field of Americans had voiced their preferences.
Right ...less than 20% turned out to vote. “It” can scream all it wants about how commanding a lead he has, but I’m dancing in those halls with the Biden camp!
Joe Perticone at Bulwark pointed out that Trump is essentially running as an incumbent. If you look at it that way it makes his results look even worse. And this is before NH.
The GOP needn’t worry, tho. I’m sure he’ll immediately announce his 2028 candidacy after the November election and will start collecting Republican endorsements right away.
Mr. Peticone is as wrong as possible. No offense, can't look at it that way because it isn't that way. Reminds me of some many in the media who keep claiming former President Trump is running for reelection. He's not. Joe Biden is.
Besides and perhaps more importantly Mr. Peticone is unknowingly affirming 60% of Republican voters and a majority of nationally elected Republicans who insist Trump won the 2020 election. Ain't buying it.
It’s just to say that Trump is underperforming due to his having previously been president. Not an election denial thing. There probably aren’t many Trump friendly Republicans reading Bulwark in any case.
For me, the only Rs worth listening to or reading are those who publicly renounced being an R and will vote D up and down the ballot until the GOP*suffers enough electoral defeats at the national and state level forcing the creation of a new party.
That number is much smaller than it should be. Credit to Matthew Dowd, Stuart Stevens, and perhaps Nicole Wallace for publicly stating just that. Okay, maybe Tim Miller as well. Most others are political vultures engaging in a political strip tease. I say that due to most having set the table and the stage for Trump and Trumpism after ignoring flashing yellow and flashing red lights for decades.
The overturning of Roe saved the Senate yet still couldn't save the House in 2022. Anyone holding onto conventional political thinking since Trump was elected would act surprised at the results of the 2022 midterms. People who adjusted their political thinking since 2016 were not. Had NY Dems not played tit for tat gerrymandering the Ds woulda kept the House. Politics is like culture, there is no snapping back to where it once was.
For me the test is far more than the top of the ticket since it is a no-brainer. And the litmus aspect is how one identifies. If a person identifies as a conservative or as a Republican rather than an American, then for all practical purposes they are blowing smoke.
Can recall when the first change in the post-modern GOP began. Rather than say I am a Republican a bunch of them (you named a few) always in all ways began their spiel with I am a conservative as if they were mimicking the EF Hutton commercial so everybody had to stop and listen as they do in the EF Hutton commercial. It also was a signal they didn't recognize moderates and yes, liberals in the GOP. Now the litmus test is being an Evangelical Christian conservative thereby rejecting the WASP country club-Chamber of Commerce Republican wing as well as those with actual natsec/FP chops.
The same group never once gave O credit for anything, indeed fueled much of the hate. Never apologized or said they were dead wrong. Did the same w/Hillary for decades. They were also responsible for the dark attack ads that is now a permanent fixture in politics as well as the vitriol that everything goes in politics. IT DOESN'T (emphasis).
Politics is noble service to others, not just to an ideology ( fatally flawed one at that). A lesson they've yet to learn except for Stuart. Fill disclosure I've had interaction with him over the years cuz we share the love of being outdoors inc in the winter. His long cross country ski jaunts gave him time to think while in nature. Nothing cleansing the mind, body, and spirit as much as nature because it is real, ideologies are not.
Rick Wilson is a phony and is in it for the money and fame. He is a con man in the same way Trump is. He takes pride in being a redneck Rivera dude including having a beer cooler with the Confederate battle flag on it. And his own Wiki page includes his mindset of destroying people for the fuq of it. Kristol went along with Swiftboating John Kerry and long went after Hillary. He craves relevancy and power because he wants to out due his Father.
I've always liked Tara for many reasons. She is authentic and has found her voice during Trump's time. She is far less an ideologue armed with R/con talking points now. Yet it truly was the reality of the overturning of abortion that she realized she is a woman first rather than a conservative Republican with fixed rigid "beliefs". She ain't all the way their yet cuz she still invokes the fallacy of a binary choice of Biden or Trump. Just like she held w/abortion, pro-life or anti-life. It ain't that simple as so many R wimmin found out the hard way. Same with Biden-Trump. That's the wrong framing. Its about governing. And goes down the ballot and involves choosing wisely.
Was never a fan of Reed's #nevertrumper approach cuz it too was as much about money as it was about Trump. Felt for those who sent money there thereby sending less directly to D candidates and/or DNC during Trump.
Again, to me it is all about governing. Been in failed and failing states due to lack of good governance with the emphasis on power. It ain't pretty. Rs and cons simply have no desire to actually govern. They think and believe exercising power is same-same with good governance. They are dead wrong. Tool Stuart decades to get that. Once he did he realized he was living a lie his entire adult life. Same w/Matthew Dowd.
Agree, Trump did underperform considering the numbers shown in national polling organizations and that are north of 10pts higher than his Iowa results and given every MSM has stated the GOP is Trump's party. That said, wouldn't read too much into one caucus state result including the turnout in extreme weather. Reminds me of overreactions aka recency bias to a single football game or name your fav game.
There're clearly cracks and fissures in the Republican Party and with right leaning independents. So too are there with Ds and left leaning Independents. They're many unforeseen as well as some foreseen events on the horizon, both at home and abroad.
Point being political writers including those at the Bulwark holding a bias need to breather before writing a single word and then rethink again after they write. Same with journos claiming the head of a party won by a landslide when the number just ticked north of 50%. Long have held journos should stick to the numbers w/o adding their own descriptors or adjectives. Numbers never lie, people lie all the time.
There is a big difference between being "in the tank" and doing stupid analysis, which is what we are seeing from the mainstream media right now. Just wait. They'll flip when Trump's weakness really begins to show.
Which is better for the feckless mass media, a presidential race with Herr Gropenfuehrer, or without him? Which sells more ads? Which one allows lazy pundits to pontificate constantly about the dire dramas that unfold?
Thank you for this actual analysis of the Iowa data as opposed to the superficial drivel I've been hearing all day. As you and others on the thread have pointed out - 49% of the caucus votes cast in a state with such favorable MAGA demographics DIDN'T select Herr Drumpf. I'm going to take some hope from that. On another note - how in the world does anyone who claims to be a "Christian" support hisself for any position of ethical, moral or legal authority? That just doesn't align with anything I was ever taught in Sunday School
Right. 49% not trump. The Dominionist, Apocalyptic religion (I hesitate to say Christianity except to say they are heresies) these folks embrace is not what you were taught in Sunday School.
The GOP cherry-picks Iowa like the Democratic Party this year cherry-picked So. Carolina -- both to favor the chosen candidates of the respective party establishments. Biden for the Dems because those voters restored his 2020 candidacy (payback for those local party hacks) even tho' the state is solid Red; and Iowa to favor the Trumpistas, rural reactionary MAGA minions who have joined the cult, unlike the more solidly independent New Hampshire voters.
I saw these numbers posted online - I havn't independently confirmed their accuracy - but if they are correct it's pretty interesting how this is being spun in the mainstream media:
You are not alone. And in my case, it's not just that I'm getting sick of the Grey Lady, it's the profound sense of loss of seeing a great old friend descend into dementia. And not the good kind, the one that puts the "mensch" in "dementia". Gone are the good ole days when, of a Sunday morning, I would spend hours in delightful company with a pot of coffee and a tree's worth of newsprint. The thrill of feeling I had been enlightened by people much smarter than me has been replaced with the despair of finding only crappy analysis and clickbait. Thank god there are still people like LKT4 who remind us of their integrity with every disquisition.
I quit after their 2016 election coverage, compounded by the hiring of Bret Stephens -- whose name I cannot for the life of me remember from one day to the next. But all I have to do is Google "right wing new york times columnist" and there he is in the shortlist.
What a great message. I had some of the same reactions but the combination of detailed analysis with your ascerbic wit is so refreshing- not to mention encouraging!
Jan 16·edited Jan 16Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
It seems clear that in a one-on-one race, Biden handily defeats Trump. The concern is what effect one or more third party candidates may have, including a “No Labels” candidate. They could draw votes away from Biden because they think he is too old, too centrist, too pro-Israel, too whatever. But if those candidates do run, and do draw off votes from Biden, that clears a path for Trump which nobody wants.
The Democrats need to do some serious back-room talking to the potential third party candidates, and get them to stand down. The survival of democracy in this country is as crucial a reason as any to take all steps to deprive Trump of any chance of getting near the Oval Office ever again.
Speaking of “too old”...that was the jabber on MSNBC tonight. Those interviewed said that the Dems must convince Biden to come out and be honest with people by saying “Yeah, we are two old white men running for the Presidency. But look, one of us wants to keep democracy and the other wants to be a dictator and destroy our great nation.”
That may actually be true - Mango Mussolini has a mountain of high crimes, felonies and sordid misdemeanors to offer, adding more every single day - it's even impressive in a sinister, horror film kind of way! *******
Neo-Fascist Nitwit From Hell, now playing at the Cineplex 13!
See! The Carnage as The Nitwit Kills His Lawyer's Careers!
Thrill! As the Vicious Nitwit Battles With The Forces of Truth, Justice, and the American Way!
Gasp! As the Zombie Cult Followers of Nitwit Donald Disgrace Themselves Irredeemably!
Cheer! As The Nitwit is Brought to Trial, Is Convicted, Loses Every Appeal, and Is Propelled
Into Outer Space to a Prison Planet He Must Share With Roger Stone, Alex Jones, Steve
Bannon, Stephen Miller, Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert, and a host of slimy
Jan 17·edited Jan 17Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
Lucian, I like your view much, much better than the last Substack column I read, the writer of which practically had Trump in the White House. Geez, how many times will we have to point out that Iowa is scarcely the poster state for any other state's electorate. That other guy was a very depressing read and while I know we have a helluva fight coming up to keep Joe as President, I firmly believe we will be victorious. It's the subsequent elections--where we may be tempted to rest on our laurels, that worry me.
Agree, but I want to aim higher -- or "lower" is probably closer to the mark. The GOP takeover of state legislatures long predates Trump. They're the ones who've been denying access to the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid, and other federal benefits that low-income people could most definitely use. At the same time, getting the MAGAts out of Congress would be major -- like maybe the mainstream media would then get down to covering real news instead of MTG et al.'s histrionics? Oh, well -- a woman can hope, can't she? ;-)
Note also that Iowa is a small state with about 3. 2 million total population, so the fragmented activist bunch you have identified as divided against themselves, and with prospective Biden supporters among them should Trump win the GOP nomination as now looks probable, is an even more dubious representation of how average Iowans view Trump.
I'm really glad my home state also offers the astounding Hawkeye basketball phenom Caitlin Clark as well, these GOP diehard Trump supporters are an embarrassment for any state to handle:
Big Ten Record: Caitlin Clark wins 4th-straight, 25th overall, BIG Player of the Week
Riley Donald
Tue, Jan 16, 2024, 10:55 AM CST·1 min read
Caitlin Clark is knocking down records one after another like they are 3-pointers in an open gym. The Iowa Hawkeyes point guard has set yet another record, this time it is for the Big Ten Conference.
In what is her fourth-straight week being named the Big Ten Player of the Week, Clark also set the Big Ten record for being named the conference player of the week 25 times total, with more likely to come.
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 15, 2024
Caitlin Clark has the Iowa Hawkeyes ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll right now and trending towards a No. 1 seed in the latest NCAA Women’s Tournament bracketology.
Next for Clark is a home game welcoming in the Wisconsin Badgers followed by a Sunday road trip to take on the No. 18 Ohio State Buckeyes in front of a packed house.
On the year, Iowa’s all-time leading scorer is averaging 30.9 points per game while shooting 48.2% from the field and 39.9% from three-point range. Clark is also adding in 7.9 assists and 7.2 rebounds per game.
The Iowa native is putting on a clinic unseen before in women’s basketball and continues to put on a show each night for arenas full of fans, young girls who admire her, and all fans of basketball.
0-It seems that mainstream media loves sensationalism so much in order to get as many eyes and ears as possible that they fail do read between the lines or to do the math. Thanks Lucian for keeping the rest of us grounded.
Regarding abortion, the Supreme Court in their infinite wisdom said e the states should decide I think they meant the collective population of each state, but apparently the people those people elected to represent them in the state legislatures don't really care that much what their constituents want, they think they are much wiser and know what's best for everyone in their state, hence the many attempts to overturn the rigid inflexible state laws. Interesting how State and Federal lawmakers gladly take the taxpayer funded paychecks and lucrative benefits and per nsions, yet ignore entirely their benefactors.
The hands-down best analysis of the Iowa caucus vote that I've read yet, and I don't expect to read anything better in the near future. Why do I have this feeling that AI could do a better job of covering electoral politics than the MSM is doing? Since those who turn out for caucuses tend to be hardcore party people, those stats of Haley supporters who'll vote for Biden if Trump is the GOP nominee are stupendous.
Has. #45 added any voters beyond his MAGAites? No. And 51% of a party attracting 48% of the vote is 25% of the voting public. Can we extrapolate like that? If so, I'll sleep better.
Thank you for articulating what I’ve been trying to analyse sitting here in my living room. I kept saying to myself “49% of the Republicans voted in opposition to Trump. That has to be good news!” Keep it going Lucian!
exactly!!!!!
But the ones who didn’t vote for t-Rump voted for candidates just as bad or even worse than him! How is this good news? I don’t see many of them voting for Biden! I think they’ll hold their noses and vote GOP.
It’s important to consider the worst case scenario which you have done.
Like it or not, we’ve got a divided nation and it’s going to require some kind of wizard to restore our unity.
Is it possible? Your guess is as good as mine. We were convinced that our country would not elect an off-the-rails buffoon; let’s not be complacent.
As much as I’d like to believe it can’t happen again, I’ve been wrong before!
To put the Iowa GOP caucuses into perspective: 110,000 people voted in the caucuses. The average U.S. Congressional district has nearly seven times the population of the entire GOP caucus voting population. Yet watching TV or reading the newspaper, you'd have believed a vast field of Americans had voiced their preferences.
A "vast field" ...of corn.
Right ...less than 20% turned out to vote. “It” can scream all it wants about how commanding a lead he has, but I’m dancing in those halls with the Biden camp!
Joe Perticone at Bulwark pointed out that Trump is essentially running as an incumbent. If you look at it that way it makes his results look even worse. And this is before NH.
Live Free or Vote Dictatorship!
He’s not an incumbent! President Joe Biden is the incumbent.
The GOP needn’t worry, tho. I’m sure he’ll immediately announce his 2028 candidacy after the November election and will start collecting Republican endorsements right away.
He'll be dead or stroked out by then. Have you seen tfg lately?
If only...
If I had to bet that’s where I’d put my money. Or just incapable of forming sentences. Well, more incapable.
He won't be able to recognize himself in the mirror in 2028.
Mr. Peticone is as wrong as possible. No offense, can't look at it that way because it isn't that way. Reminds me of some many in the media who keep claiming former President Trump is running for reelection. He's not. Joe Biden is.
Besides and perhaps more importantly Mr. Peticone is unknowingly affirming 60% of Republican voters and a majority of nationally elected Republicans who insist Trump won the 2020 election. Ain't buying it.
It’s just to say that Trump is underperforming due to his having previously been president. Not an election denial thing. There probably aren’t many Trump friendly Republicans reading Bulwark in any case.
For me, the only Rs worth listening to or reading are those who publicly renounced being an R and will vote D up and down the ballot until the GOP*suffers enough electoral defeats at the national and state level forcing the creation of a new party.
That number is much smaller than it should be. Credit to Matthew Dowd, Stuart Stevens, and perhaps Nicole Wallace for publicly stating just that. Okay, maybe Tim Miller as well. Most others are political vultures engaging in a political strip tease. I say that due to most having set the table and the stage for Trump and Trumpism after ignoring flashing yellow and flashing red lights for decades.
The overturning of Roe saved the Senate yet still couldn't save the House in 2022. Anyone holding onto conventional political thinking since Trump was elected would act surprised at the results of the 2022 midterms. People who adjusted their political thinking since 2016 were not. Had NY Dems not played tit for tat gerrymandering the Ds woulda kept the House. Politics is like culture, there is no snapping back to where it once was.
Bill Kristol, Rick Wilson, Reed Galen, Tara Setmayer, Stuart Stevens, etc. are all voting and promoting Biden.
For me the test is far more than the top of the ticket since it is a no-brainer. And the litmus aspect is how one identifies. If a person identifies as a conservative or as a Republican rather than an American, then for all practical purposes they are blowing smoke.
Can recall when the first change in the post-modern GOP began. Rather than say I am a Republican a bunch of them (you named a few) always in all ways began their spiel with I am a conservative as if they were mimicking the EF Hutton commercial so everybody had to stop and listen as they do in the EF Hutton commercial. It also was a signal they didn't recognize moderates and yes, liberals in the GOP. Now the litmus test is being an Evangelical Christian conservative thereby rejecting the WASP country club-Chamber of Commerce Republican wing as well as those with actual natsec/FP chops.
The same group never once gave O credit for anything, indeed fueled much of the hate. Never apologized or said they were dead wrong. Did the same w/Hillary for decades. They were also responsible for the dark attack ads that is now a permanent fixture in politics as well as the vitriol that everything goes in politics. IT DOESN'T (emphasis).
Politics is noble service to others, not just to an ideology ( fatally flawed one at that). A lesson they've yet to learn except for Stuart. Fill disclosure I've had interaction with him over the years cuz we share the love of being outdoors inc in the winter. His long cross country ski jaunts gave him time to think while in nature. Nothing cleansing the mind, body, and spirit as much as nature because it is real, ideologies are not.
Rick Wilson is a phony and is in it for the money and fame. He is a con man in the same way Trump is. He takes pride in being a redneck Rivera dude including having a beer cooler with the Confederate battle flag on it. And his own Wiki page includes his mindset of destroying people for the fuq of it. Kristol went along with Swiftboating John Kerry and long went after Hillary. He craves relevancy and power because he wants to out due his Father.
I've always liked Tara for many reasons. She is authentic and has found her voice during Trump's time. She is far less an ideologue armed with R/con talking points now. Yet it truly was the reality of the overturning of abortion that she realized she is a woman first rather than a conservative Republican with fixed rigid "beliefs". She ain't all the way their yet cuz she still invokes the fallacy of a binary choice of Biden or Trump. Just like she held w/abortion, pro-life or anti-life. It ain't that simple as so many R wimmin found out the hard way. Same with Biden-Trump. That's the wrong framing. Its about governing. And goes down the ballot and involves choosing wisely.
Was never a fan of Reed's #nevertrumper approach cuz it too was as much about money as it was about Trump. Felt for those who sent money there thereby sending less directly to D candidates and/or DNC during Trump.
Again, to me it is all about governing. Been in failed and failing states due to lack of good governance with the emphasis on power. It ain't pretty. Rs and cons simply have no desire to actually govern. They think and believe exercising power is same-same with good governance. They are dead wrong. Tool Stuart decades to get that. Once he did he realized he was living a lie his entire adult life. Same w/Matthew Dowd.
Agree, Trump did underperform considering the numbers shown in national polling organizations and that are north of 10pts higher than his Iowa results and given every MSM has stated the GOP is Trump's party. That said, wouldn't read too much into one caucus state result including the turnout in extreme weather. Reminds me of overreactions aka recency bias to a single football game or name your fav game.
There're clearly cracks and fissures in the Republican Party and with right leaning independents. So too are there with Ds and left leaning Independents. They're many unforeseen as well as some foreseen events on the horizon, both at home and abroad.
Point being political writers including those at the Bulwark holding a bias need to breather before writing a single word and then rethink again after they write. Same with journos claiming the head of a party won by a landslide when the number just ticked north of 50%. Long have held journos should stick to the numbers w/o adding their own descriptors or adjectives. Numbers never lie, people lie all the time.
But our media is fully in the tank for Trump, it seems from the quotes you led with.
There is a big difference between being "in the tank" and doing stupid analysis, which is what we are seeing from the mainstream media right now. Just wait. They'll flip when Trump's weakness really begins to show.
I hope you are right. I am so very tired of this BS. So tired.
When you’re ‘in the tank’ you do a stupid analysis.
Praying for it to be SOON, Lucian.
Why are they putting it out this way? It's not just to catch our attention at this point. What is it?
I sure hope you are right about this Lucian!!
Which is better for the feckless mass media, a presidential race with Herr Gropenfuehrer, or without him? Which sells more ads? Which one allows lazy pundits to pontificate constantly about the dire dramas that unfold?
I rest my case.
If I am Joe Biden, bring on Trump! He is most beatable and they know it.
I thought that in 2016 when it was Clinton vs Trump. Her 2.7 million victory meant nothing because of the slave states' Electoral College.
Thank you for this actual analysis of the Iowa data as opposed to the superficial drivel I've been hearing all day. As you and others on the thread have pointed out - 49% of the caucus votes cast in a state with such favorable MAGA demographics DIDN'T select Herr Drumpf. I'm going to take some hope from that. On another note - how in the world does anyone who claims to be a "Christian" support hisself for any position of ethical, moral or legal authority? That just doesn't align with anything I was ever taught in Sunday School
Right. 49% not trump. The Dominionist, Apocalyptic religion (I hesitate to say Christianity except to say they are heresies) these folks embrace is not what you were taught in Sunday School.
Thank you. Seems like I have some research to do.
The GOP cherry-picks Iowa like the Democratic Party this year cherry-picked So. Carolina -- both to favor the chosen candidates of the respective party establishments. Biden for the Dems because those voters restored his 2020 candidacy (payback for those local party hacks) even tho' the state is solid Red; and Iowa to favor the Trumpistas, rural reactionary MAGA minions who have joined the cult, unlike the more solidly independent New Hampshire voters.
I saw these numbers posted online - I havn't independently confirmed their accuracy - but if they are correct it's pretty interesting how this is being spun in the mainstream media:
"2 million registered voters in Iowa.
718K are Republican
102K pitiful republicans actually showed up
53K voted for Trump, i.e. 2.5% of Iowa voters
2.5%"
The American majority continues to be steamrolled by a minority of fanatics. I have no answer for this!
I'm really really getting sick of the NYT.
I cancelled my subscription
You are not alone. And in my case, it's not just that I'm getting sick of the Grey Lady, it's the profound sense of loss of seeing a great old friend descend into dementia. And not the good kind, the one that puts the "mensch" in "dementia". Gone are the good ole days when, of a Sunday morning, I would spend hours in delightful company with a pot of coffee and a tree's worth of newsprint. The thrill of feeling I had been enlightened by people much smarter than me has been replaced with the despair of finding only crappy analysis and clickbait. Thank god there are still people like LKT4 who remind us of their integrity with every disquisition.
Great last word Norris, I don’t believe I have ever seen it before, once again I learn by reading this disquisition 👏🏻 😎
I quit after their 2016 election coverage, compounded by the hiring of Bret Stephens -- whose name I cannot for the life of me remember from one day to the next. But all I have to do is Google "right wing new york times columnist" and there he is in the shortlist.
What a great message. I had some of the same reactions but the combination of detailed analysis with your ascerbic wit is so refreshing- not to mention encouraging!
The importance of acerbic wit is inevitably lost on the mainstream media. ;-)
It goes right over their heads. 🤷♂️
This could give a whole new meaning to "flyover country"! ;-)
Trump not winning 75 percent of these chuckleheads is a disaster for him but the media won’t see it that way.
Great headline, by the way.
A worse disaster is that 43% of her supporters say they will vote for Biden (v. Trump) and only 22% for Trump.
It seems clear that in a one-on-one race, Biden handily defeats Trump. The concern is what effect one or more third party candidates may have, including a “No Labels” candidate. They could draw votes away from Biden because they think he is too old, too centrist, too pro-Israel, too whatever. But if those candidates do run, and do draw off votes from Biden, that clears a path for Trump which nobody wants.
The Democrats need to do some serious back-room talking to the potential third party candidates, and get them to stand down. The survival of democracy in this country is as crucial a reason as any to take all steps to deprive Trump of any chance of getting near the Oval Office ever again.
RFK Jr could draw some votes away from the Mango Mamzer with his anti-vax stance.
Yes
Speaking of “too old”...that was the jabber on MSNBC tonight. Those interviewed said that the Dems must convince Biden to come out and be honest with people by saying “Yeah, we are two old white men running for the Presidency. But look, one of us wants to keep democracy and the other wants to be a dictator and destroy our great nation.”
You would think they could reason with those who would take more votes from Biden than Trump. As to any others, let them have at it.
Let him keep winning and get the nomination. Easiest way for Biden to have four more years as President,
That may actually be true - Mango Mussolini has a mountain of high crimes, felonies and sordid misdemeanors to offer, adding more every single day - it's even impressive in a sinister, horror film kind of way! *******
Neo-Fascist Nitwit From Hell, now playing at the Cineplex 13!
See! The Carnage as The Nitwit Kills His Lawyer's Careers!
Thrill! As the Vicious Nitwit Battles With The Forces of Truth, Justice, and the American Way!
Gasp! As the Zombie Cult Followers of Nitwit Donald Disgrace Themselves Irredeemably!
Cheer! As The Nitwit is Brought to Trial, Is Convicted, Loses Every Appeal, and Is Propelled
Into Outer Space to a Prison Planet He Must Share With Roger Stone, Alex Jones, Steve
Bannon, Stephen Miller, Marjorie Taylor Green, Lauren Boebert, and a host of slimy
beings too terrifying to name!
Rated PG-13: Parental Guidance Advised
I love the thought of that group being shot into space to a prison planet - or whatever. What a way to get rid of toxic waste!
Richard, you win the internet today! 🏆
I can’t wait to see THIS movie! 🍿
That's the betting line!
Trump is pretty much a guaranteed loser against anyone.
Lucian, I like your view much, much better than the last Substack column I read, the writer of which practically had Trump in the White House. Geez, how many times will we have to point out that Iowa is scarcely the poster state for any other state's electorate. That other guy was a very depressing read and while I know we have a helluva fight coming up to keep Joe as President, I firmly believe we will be victorious. It's the subsequent elections--where we may be tempted to rest on our laurels, that worry me.
We'll re-elect Biden-Harris, but there are no laurels to rest on as long as so many states remain in the hands of the Neo Confederacy.
That was my point--we are going to have to fight like tigers for every election for at least a decade to clear out the worst of the MAGAt extremists
Agree, but I want to aim higher -- or "lower" is probably closer to the mark. The GOP takeover of state legislatures long predates Trump. They're the ones who've been denying access to the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid, and other federal benefits that low-income people could most definitely use. At the same time, getting the MAGAts out of Congress would be major -- like maybe the mainstream media would then get down to covering real news instead of MTG et al.'s histrionics? Oh, well -- a woman can hope, can't she? ;-)
I love the way you think! YES, yes, yes!!!
I hope you are right.
Exactly, you've nailed it again, Lucian.
Note also that Iowa is a small state with about 3. 2 million total population, so the fragmented activist bunch you have identified as divided against themselves, and with prospective Biden supporters among them should Trump win the GOP nomination as now looks probable, is an even more dubious representation of how average Iowans view Trump.
I'm really glad my home state also offers the astounding Hawkeye basketball phenom Caitlin Clark as well, these GOP diehard Trump supporters are an embarrassment for any state to handle:
sports.yahoo.com/big-ten-record-caitlin-clark-165542140.html
Big Ten Record: Caitlin Clark wins 4th-straight, 25th overall, BIG Player of the Week
Riley Donald
Tue, Jan 16, 2024, 10:55 AM CST·1 min read
Caitlin Clark is knocking down records one after another like they are 3-pointers in an open gym. The Iowa Hawkeyes point guard has set yet another record, this time it is for the Big Ten Conference.
In what is her fourth-straight week being named the Big Ten Player of the Week, Clark also set the Big Ten record for being named the conference player of the week 25 times total, with more likely to come.
Guess who?@CaitlinClark22 x #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/mv9IMbENG9
— Iowa Women's Basketball (@IowaWBB) January 15, 2024
Caitlin Clark has the Iowa Hawkeyes ranked No. 2 in the AP Top 25 poll right now and trending towards a No. 1 seed in the latest NCAA Women’s Tournament bracketology.
Next for Clark is a home game welcoming in the Wisconsin Badgers followed by a Sunday road trip to take on the No. 18 Ohio State Buckeyes in front of a packed house.
On the year, Iowa’s all-time leading scorer is averaging 30.9 points per game while shooting 48.2% from the field and 39.9% from three-point range. Clark is also adding in 7.9 assists and 7.2 rebounds per game.
The Iowa native is putting on a clinic unseen before in women’s basketball and continues to put on a show each night for arenas full of fans, young girls who admire her, and all fans of basketball.
0-It seems that mainstream media loves sensationalism so much in order to get as many eyes and ears as possible that they fail do read between the lines or to do the math. Thanks Lucian for keeping the rest of us grounded.
Regarding abortion, the Supreme Court in their infinite wisdom said e the states should decide I think they meant the collective population of each state, but apparently the people those people elected to represent them in the state legislatures don't really care that much what their constituents want, they think they are much wiser and know what's best for everyone in their state, hence the many attempts to overturn the rigid inflexible state laws. Interesting how State and Federal lawmakers gladly take the taxpayer funded paychecks and lucrative benefits and per nsions, yet ignore entirely their benefactors.
This has made me happy. Thank you.
The hands-down best analysis of the Iowa caucus vote that I've read yet, and I don't expect to read anything better in the near future. Why do I have this feeling that AI could do a better job of covering electoral politics than the MSM is doing? Since those who turn out for caucuses tend to be hardcore party people, those stats of Haley supporters who'll vote for Biden if Trump is the GOP nominee are stupendous.
Has. #45 added any voters beyond his MAGAites? No. And 51% of a party attracting 48% of the vote is 25% of the voting public. Can we extrapolate like that? If so, I'll sleep better.