I am a History major. There will not be a peaceful transfer of powers in 2yrs. There will be an incident that will require marshal law. Instigated and carried out by the right wing fascist Trump cabal! And blamed on left wing or blacks, immigrants, anyone . Preventing an election My advice is don’t wait( Biden’s big mistake), Use whatever force is necessary now!
Another history major here—I fear you are right. I have a number of friends who believe the midterms will save us, but I suspect things may go as you suggest. Even if Roberts has five votes, I expect Trump/Musk to ignore their ruling(s) and barrel ahead.
Another history major here. Look at the parallels to Hitler's seizure of power. It will be a fucking miracle if there is anything resembling a free and fair election again. These Nazis have power now and they won't give it up until they are forced out.
I agree Linda, the parallel between the Trump brigade and the Naziz is uncanny. I thought the final barrier to the Trump/Musk ambitions would be the courts, but if the judges don't follow through with enforcement by the marshals or the marshals are stopped some other way the army will be our last hope, but if Musk halts funding/salaries to Federal judges and staff.
The big question then is how many Generals on down through the ranks will uphold the constitution and how many are pro Trump and want to see an authoritarian regime.in place? Hence a civil war.
I live in Las Vegas, a city where everything is a gamble. The weather, for example. It hasn’t rained in 200 days, and you can bet on when it finally will. That’s not a joke—it’s an actual bet. You can walk into a casino right now, place money on when the skies will finally open up, and somebody, somewhere, will take that action.
Here’s another one: I’ll take the bet that we don’t have another real election. That we’re standing on the edge of civil war, teetering like a drunk at a blackjack table who just went all-in on a bad hand. Trump isn’t the president—Musk is. He’s the shadow president. The man behind the curtain, except the curtain is Twitter, and we all just keep staring at it, waiting for some kind of revelation that never comes.
If you’re sitting around waiting for the midterms to save us, go ahead and lay your money down—but you’d be smarter to walk away from the table.
This country is a powder keg, and my quiet suburban gated neighborhood—where the biggest crime used to be someone’s landscaping not meeting HOA standards—is on edge. We are not one nation. We are two. And I no longer consider Republicans my fellow Americans. They are something else, something closer to second-generation Nazis with better branding.
I’m gay. I’m afraid. And if this administration turns my rights into ashes, if they come for me and people like me, I will fight. Because I have not spent over 50 years voting, watching history lurch forward and backward, only to see my country slide into the same abyss that swallowed 1930s Germany.
The courts? They’re another bet, and I don’t like the odds. The only thing that will hold this country together is people marching in the streets, refusing to fold. Because right now, the house always wins. And the house? Well, it’s stacked against us.
“Force” needs to be under strong legal control, or you are counseling a conflict we are not going to weather very well. The Democratic party needs to exercise savvy and legitimate power … NOW, and ongoing
Thank you for sharing this email, Lucian. I really appreciate his clear-sighted, thoughtful analysis of the looming Trump Constitutional crisis.
I’ve been thinking a lot these past few days about how our constitutional system would be destroyed if there is no one to stop Trump/Musk from continuing to ignore our constitution, which truly is the foundation of our American Democracy.
I fear force will be required, in the end. I hope it is otherwise.
This email from Mr. Goggin is superbly on point. It's clear that the administration has no intention of following any court's order, except maybe the Supreme's, but that won't be for a while, as was noted. (I also see no intention of following the Supremes' order, "Stop! In the Name of Love.") As also was noted, "The District Court could order anyone violating its Order to be held in contempt and order its U.S. Marshals or the Military to arrest them." However, I'm wondering if any judge would have the courage to do so. Any action short of that will be ineffectual.
My local dem club has put out a list of reliable sources for news and commentary, including folks like heather cox Richardson, Steve Schmidt and YOU. Thank you for your relentlessness. So necessary.
Thanks to Lucian and all the commenters here. As for me, I'm sitting here speechless. Next step is to send the link of this article to my members of Congress, governor, and state attorney general. Then share it w/ Indivisible, our state's Indivisible network, and friends and others who aren't already traumatized and paralyzed in fear.
Please share Lucian and Mr. Goggin's email widely.
Trump pardoned Blago today and directed his DOJ to drop all charges against Adams, not to mention all the previous felon pardons, so yes, he's already defying court orders.
In addition to all the blue v. blue you mention, there are the brown shirts lurking at the edge - the militias, J6 jackals, and possibly Blackwater. When the House Dems tried to visit the Education Dept. Friday, a fellow who appeared to not be in uniform prevented it. Later, I read somewhere he was from Blackwater, although I couldn’t confirm that. In other words, the administration has its own private militia totally outside government.
I agree with you but since the Joint Chiefs have not yet even speaking out about anything Trump and Hegseth are doing, I wonder if it will obey the Constitution and oppose Trump if he defies the courts. My doubts grew when not a one spoke out about the firing of Admiral Lisa Fagin one of their own or her eviction from her quarters with three hours notice.
As much as I dread the possibility of a blue on blue confrontation, I dread a lack of response by the military far more.
These are tumultuous and dangerous times. We all need to steel our hearts to meet the crisis. Unfortunately, to paraphrase and place into context of this situation, the words Stephen A. Douglas when he confronted President Buchanan’s threats against his opposition to his opposition to the Lecompton Constitution which would have admitted Kansas as a Slave State, “I remind you sir, General Jackson is dead”. Unfortunately, so is General Winfield Scott. I no longer have the confidence that our military leaders will stand against Trump’s open defiance of the law and Constitution.
All the best, stay safe and definitely watch your six. We are all now potential targets of Trump, his administration and his Nazi militias.
You are correct. None of the Military on active duty will , or should , comment on the current situation, namely Trump’s 100 Executive Orders and the ten District Courts who have issued counter orders , since it remains at this point a political dispute. The situation dramatically changes if the Administration blatantly refuses to comply with Court orders. Then the first step is for the Court to issue an Order to Show Cause on why the specific federal official refusing to comply should not be held in contempt of Court and sanctioned with a personal fine or imprisonment. If the federal official is duly sanctioned he can appeal the sanction. Ultimately to SCOTUS. However, in the meantime , the Order is in place . If he refuses to comply pending appeal , he could be immediately fined and or ordered to prison until he does comply. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE COURT MUST ORDER AN OFFICIAL TO CARRY OUT THE SANCTION. If the U.S. Marshalls refuse, and the FBI or other civilian officers refuse to enforce the Courts order, the Court has the inherent power to order the Military to carry out its order. This is where the Senior Military Officer, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff must make a decision. Does he follow the precedents set by Generals Scott and Milley or does he refuse to carry out the lawful orders of the District Court. My hunch is that long before the process reaches that point SCOTUS will intervene and take Jurisdiction. Perhaps order a Stay to all parties, while it orders its own review. This could happen in a matter of days or weeks but not months. A final adjudicated order from SCOTUS will happen. My guess is it will cut the baby in half somehow. But one way or the other Trump is gong to get a lot of bad press. Historic times are not easy. I believe the current Military Officer Corps will obey the Supreme Court, because it’s the only way they can fulfill their oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. I have total confidence they will do so. If they are relieved of command by President Trump, he must find compliant successors. And what if there are none. He takes a huge risk if he allows the situation to get to such a point. But if he does… well he probably he won’t like the result.
I have been feeling for a while now Professor that this violent dismantling of our institutions, with no push-back from the congress, only leaves the military as our back-up to prevent a dictatorship. I don't have any doubt that they have gamed this out, which is why Hegseth is the Secretary of Defense. I knew nothing of the courts reliance on the military to enforce their orders, as an order of last resort. So thank you for that, I have been worried that they would be drug into the migrant fiasco, and they still may be, but as bad as that would be for all involved, the act of being the enforcer of constitutional order, in order to protect the constitution is a whole different thing. It's coming down to that isn't it, to those blessed with eyes to see, we are in very perilous times. My time in service to our nation has colored my life and hindsight has only made it more dear. If there are any that I would trust with the defence of our constitution, it's the military, where selfless devotion to duty is the calling card, it's painfully obvious that a lot of the political class has no idea what that means.
If it comes to the military enforcing the Constitution, I believe they will do so. While it is not a scenario I wish to see inflicted on our country, it is unquestionably preferable to the end of our democracy at the hands of the traitorous t***p administration. It is my supreme wish to see the MAGAts orange jesus behind bars where he so rightfully belongs.
Instead of spending meeting time sucking up to silicon valley gazillionaires, our corporate dem leadership should be stepping aside and handing control to the next generation. We need to be choosing one or more spokespeople/candidates for '28 and have them barnstorming the country connecting with rural and working class voters that have abandoned our party in droves due to the fact we no longer represent their interests. We cannot be MAGA light and win elections.
I am also worried that the military will not follow the Constitution over Trump. Their choice, and their Oath, are both clear, but I do not know that they will do it.
I think the officers, the career military, will be loyal to their oath and follow the order/request of the Supreme Court. The resident of the White House is showing legitimate signs of not being compos mentis. The military and the marshals know their duty: it is to the Constitution and not to an unelected civilian who is bent on turning the country into 3 failure.
The Chief Justice will order it. By law, he is the other 'power' that directs the military, and as the email stated, there was an episode where that did occur.
I think the military will obey the court and do whatever it takes to fulfill their oath. Trump hasn't become a dictator, YET.
LKTiv: "The U.S. Military will follow the Constitution and the law. And their attorneys will tell them that their Commander in Chief has issued an illegal order."
I wish to hell that was a bet I would join on. I am horrified that I'm not as sure as you are. Musk (the MOTUS, as he's being called) is demanding the judge be impeached, in the case involving Treasury data access. Anybody else remember a movie from the 1960's titled "Z"?
This is a nightmare and what I feared would happen. We can only hope that the military is true to its oath and arrests these fascist pigs. If not, then we are finished as a democracy and all of our lives will be on the line. I have never been so terrified.
The idea that the military would be following lawful orders is what gives me hope Linda. If we had to rely on some of our generals just deciding to act on their own even out of a sense of patriotism, it would be a coup, but given a lawful order it's a whole other thing. I know that what we are witnessing is horrifying, but we have to remember that we have endured other dark days and come out on top. This too shall pass.
Frightening and beyond anything I could have envisioned, although I know this is what trump said he would do. He left out the Elon Musk part in his rantings, though.
Lucian, we're in debt to you for sharing that thoroughly horrifying email. Add to it the report in the Washington Post this weekend (amplified by -- shouted by -- Keith Olbermann on his podcast) that applicants for national security jobs, including FBI agents being offered reinstatement, are being asked who their "real boss" is, and, among other things, whether january 6 was an "inside job." Those who have answered "incorrectly" have not gotten a callback. As for this Trumpublican administration ignoring lower court orders, well, sure it will. Remember Stalin's famous line in 1935, when challenged to improve the treatment of Catholics in the Soviet Union, "How many divisions does the Pope have?" I'm willing to bet that someone has said that easy-to-remember line to Trump in the context of, how many divisions does a District Court have, especially in the context of having Hegspeth in Control (capital letter in keeping with the new standards in written/text English) of the military. Lucian, would you use your working wrist to pour a glass of what you're having and put it on a table for Elijah?
Goggin writes, "Both of these precedents give strong support to the United States courts to order the U.S. Military to enforce contempt orders against members of the administration who refuse to abide by the Constitution as the U.S. courts have determined. If they fail to follow final adjudicated court Orders, they will be arrested, just as the insurrectionists of January 6 were arrested, tried and convicted."
I don't see how they can be tried. In 1866, in Ex parte Milligan, the Supreme Court ruled that military tribunals cannot try civilians when civil courts are functioning. Maybe the Supreme Court, aware that its own power would be at stake, would overturn or distinguish Ex parte Milligan.
I am a History major. There will not be a peaceful transfer of powers in 2yrs. There will be an incident that will require marshal law. Instigated and carried out by the right wing fascist Trump cabal! And blamed on left wing or blacks, immigrants, anyone . Preventing an election My advice is don’t wait( Biden’s big mistake), Use whatever force is necessary now!
Another history major here—I fear you are right. I have a number of friends who believe the midterms will save us, but I suspect things may go as you suggest. Even if Roberts has five votes, I expect Trump/Musk to ignore their ruling(s) and barrel ahead.
You may find this column (particularly the last two sections) of interest: https://whowhatwhy.org/justice/donald-trump-and-the-dictators-doom-loop/
I agree. Trump knows what's at stake in a midterm. He has too much to lose. Personally, I think he would do anything to prevent any election.
Another history major here. Look at the parallels to Hitler's seizure of power. It will be a fucking miracle if there is anything resembling a free and fair election again. These Nazis have power now and they won't give it up until they are forced out.
This fellow History major agrees.
I agree Linda, the parallel between the Trump brigade and the Naziz is uncanny. I thought the final barrier to the Trump/Musk ambitions would be the courts, but if the judges don't follow through with enforcement by the marshals or the marshals are stopped some other way the army will be our last hope, but if Musk halts funding/salaries to Federal judges and staff.
The big question then is how many Generals on down through the ranks will uphold the constitution and how many are pro Trump and want to see an authoritarian regime.in place? Hence a civil war.
Las Vegas, Where Everything’s a Bet
I live in Las Vegas, a city where everything is a gamble. The weather, for example. It hasn’t rained in 200 days, and you can bet on when it finally will. That’s not a joke—it’s an actual bet. You can walk into a casino right now, place money on when the skies will finally open up, and somebody, somewhere, will take that action.
Here’s another one: I’ll take the bet that we don’t have another real election. That we’re standing on the edge of civil war, teetering like a drunk at a blackjack table who just went all-in on a bad hand. Trump isn’t the president—Musk is. He’s the shadow president. The man behind the curtain, except the curtain is Twitter, and we all just keep staring at it, waiting for some kind of revelation that never comes.
If you’re sitting around waiting for the midterms to save us, go ahead and lay your money down—but you’d be smarter to walk away from the table.
This country is a powder keg, and my quiet suburban gated neighborhood—where the biggest crime used to be someone’s landscaping not meeting HOA standards—is on edge. We are not one nation. We are two. And I no longer consider Republicans my fellow Americans. They are something else, something closer to second-generation Nazis with better branding.
I’m gay. I’m afraid. And if this administration turns my rights into ashes, if they come for me and people like me, I will fight. Because I have not spent over 50 years voting, watching history lurch forward and backward, only to see my country slide into the same abyss that swallowed 1930s Germany.
The courts? They’re another bet, and I don’t like the odds. The only thing that will hold this country together is people marching in the streets, refusing to fold. Because right now, the house always wins. And the house? Well, it’s stacked against us.
“Force” needs to be under strong legal control, or you are counseling a conflict we are not going to weather very well. The Democratic party needs to exercise savvy and legitimate power … NOW, and ongoing
"War is god"
Thank you for sharing this email, Lucian. I really appreciate his clear-sighted, thoughtful analysis of the looming Trump Constitutional crisis.
I’ve been thinking a lot these past few days about how our constitutional system would be destroyed if there is no one to stop Trump/Musk from continuing to ignore our constitution, which truly is the foundation of our American Democracy.
I fear force will be required, in the end. I hope it is otherwise.
This email from Mr. Goggin is superbly on point. It's clear that the administration has no intention of following any court's order, except maybe the Supreme's, but that won't be for a while, as was noted. (I also see no intention of following the Supremes' order, "Stop! In the Name of Love.") As also was noted, "The District Court could order anyone violating its Order to be held in contempt and order its U.S. Marshals or the Military to arrest them." However, I'm wondering if any judge would have the courage to do so. Any action short of that will be ineffectual.
My local dem club has put out a list of reliable sources for news and commentary, including folks like heather cox Richardson, Steve Schmidt and YOU. Thank you for your relentlessness. So necessary.
Thanks to Lucian and all the commenters here. As for me, I'm sitting here speechless. Next step is to send the link of this article to my members of Congress, governor, and state attorney general. Then share it w/ Indivisible, our state's Indivisible network, and friends and others who aren't already traumatized and paralyzed in fear.
Please share Lucian and Mr. Goggin's email widely.
Trump pardoned Blago today and directed his DOJ to drop all charges against Adams, not to mention all the previous felon pardons, so yes, he's already defying court orders.
What a pair of scumbags, especially Adams, that dirty cop and two-bit grifter.
I too am speechless. This is everything I feared--and even worse, and I have a pretty damn accurate imagination.
In addition to all the blue v. blue you mention, there are the brown shirts lurking at the edge - the militias, J6 jackals, and possibly Blackwater. When the House Dems tried to visit the Education Dept. Friday, a fellow who appeared to not be in uniform prevented it. Later, I read somewhere he was from Blackwater, although I couldn’t confirm that. In other words, the administration has its own private militia totally outside government.
It gets scarier every moment.
Lucian,
I agree with you but since the Joint Chiefs have not yet even speaking out about anything Trump and Hegseth are doing, I wonder if it will obey the Constitution and oppose Trump if he defies the courts. My doubts grew when not a one spoke out about the firing of Admiral Lisa Fagin one of their own or her eviction from her quarters with three hours notice.
As much as I dread the possibility of a blue on blue confrontation, I dread a lack of response by the military far more.
These are tumultuous and dangerous times. We all need to steel our hearts to meet the crisis. Unfortunately, to paraphrase and place into context of this situation, the words Stephen A. Douglas when he confronted President Buchanan’s threats against his opposition to his opposition to the Lecompton Constitution which would have admitted Kansas as a Slave State, “I remind you sir, General Jackson is dead”. Unfortunately, so is General Winfield Scott. I no longer have the confidence that our military leaders will stand against Trump’s open defiance of the law and Constitution.
All the best, stay safe and definitely watch your six. We are all now potential targets of Trump, his administration and his Nazi militias.
Steve Dundas
You are correct. None of the Military on active duty will , or should , comment on the current situation, namely Trump’s 100 Executive Orders and the ten District Courts who have issued counter orders , since it remains at this point a political dispute. The situation dramatically changes if the Administration blatantly refuses to comply with Court orders. Then the first step is for the Court to issue an Order to Show Cause on why the specific federal official refusing to comply should not be held in contempt of Court and sanctioned with a personal fine or imprisonment. If the federal official is duly sanctioned he can appeal the sanction. Ultimately to SCOTUS. However, in the meantime , the Order is in place . If he refuses to comply pending appeal , he could be immediately fined and or ordered to prison until he does comply. IT IS AT THIS POINT THAT THE COURT MUST ORDER AN OFFICIAL TO CARRY OUT THE SANCTION. If the U.S. Marshalls refuse, and the FBI or other civilian officers refuse to enforce the Courts order, the Court has the inherent power to order the Military to carry out its order. This is where the Senior Military Officer, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff must make a decision. Does he follow the precedents set by Generals Scott and Milley or does he refuse to carry out the lawful orders of the District Court. My hunch is that long before the process reaches that point SCOTUS will intervene and take Jurisdiction. Perhaps order a Stay to all parties, while it orders its own review. This could happen in a matter of days or weeks but not months. A final adjudicated order from SCOTUS will happen. My guess is it will cut the baby in half somehow. But one way or the other Trump is gong to get a lot of bad press. Historic times are not easy. I believe the current Military Officer Corps will obey the Supreme Court, because it’s the only way they can fulfill their oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution. I have total confidence they will do so. If they are relieved of command by President Trump, he must find compliant successors. And what if there are none. He takes a huge risk if he allows the situation to get to such a point. But if he does… well he probably he won’t like the result.
I have been feeling for a while now Professor that this violent dismantling of our institutions, with no push-back from the congress, only leaves the military as our back-up to prevent a dictatorship. I don't have any doubt that they have gamed this out, which is why Hegseth is the Secretary of Defense. I knew nothing of the courts reliance on the military to enforce their orders, as an order of last resort. So thank you for that, I have been worried that they would be drug into the migrant fiasco, and they still may be, but as bad as that would be for all involved, the act of being the enforcer of constitutional order, in order to protect the constitution is a whole different thing. It's coming down to that isn't it, to those blessed with eyes to see, we are in very perilous times. My time in service to our nation has colored my life and hindsight has only made it more dear. If there are any that I would trust with the defence of our constitution, it's the military, where selfless devotion to duty is the calling card, it's painfully obvious that a lot of the political class has no idea what that means.
Praetorian Guard, where are you when we need you? The emperor is mad and malignant.
If it comes to the military enforcing the Constitution, I believe they will do so. While it is not a scenario I wish to see inflicted on our country, it is unquestionably preferable to the end of our democracy at the hands of the traitorous t***p administration. It is my supreme wish to see the MAGAts orange jesus behind bars where he so rightfully belongs.
Instead of spending meeting time sucking up to silicon valley gazillionaires, our corporate dem leadership should be stepping aside and handing control to the next generation. We need to be choosing one or more spokespeople/candidates for '28 and have them barnstorming the country connecting with rural and working class voters that have abandoned our party in droves due to the fact we no longer represent their interests. We cannot be MAGA light and win elections.
I would prefer to keep Gavin here in California as long as we can.
Californians need to be looking at their secession options. I will move there and help out if needs must!
There might not be an election in 2026. There may no longer be a representative government. Trump and Musk and their henchmen will have taken over.
I am also worried that the military will not follow the Constitution over Trump. Their choice, and their Oath, are both clear, but I do not know that they will do it.
I think the officers, the career military, will be loyal to their oath and follow the order/request of the Supreme Court. The resident of the White House is showing legitimate signs of not being compos mentis. The military and the marshals know their duty: it is to the Constitution and not to an unelected civilian who is bent on turning the country into 3 failure.
Who will give the necessary orders? That is the big question. The underlings will take their direction from the Top.
The Chief Justice will order it. By law, he is the other 'power' that directs the military, and as the email stated, there was an episode where that did occur.
I think the military will obey the court and do whatever it takes to fulfill their oath. Trump hasn't become a dictator, YET.
LKTiv: "The U.S. Military will follow the Constitution and the law. And their attorneys will tell them that their Commander in Chief has issued an illegal order."
I wish to hell that was a bet I would join on. I am horrified that I'm not as sure as you are. Musk (the MOTUS, as he's being called) is demanding the judge be impeached, in the case involving Treasury data access. Anybody else remember a movie from the 1960's titled "Z"?
That's a quote from Goggin' email, not me.
This is a nightmare and what I feared would happen. We can only hope that the military is true to its oath and arrests these fascist pigs. If not, then we are finished as a democracy and all of our lives will be on the line. I have never been so terrified.
The idea that the military would be following lawful orders is what gives me hope Linda. If we had to rely on some of our generals just deciding to act on their own even out of a sense of patriotism, it would be a coup, but given a lawful order it's a whole other thing. I know that what we are witnessing is horrifying, but we have to remember that we have endured other dark days and come out on top. This too shall pass.
Frightening and beyond anything I could have envisioned, although I know this is what trump said he would do. He left out the Elon Musk part in his rantings, though.
Lucian, we're in debt to you for sharing that thoroughly horrifying email. Add to it the report in the Washington Post this weekend (amplified by -- shouted by -- Keith Olbermann on his podcast) that applicants for national security jobs, including FBI agents being offered reinstatement, are being asked who their "real boss" is, and, among other things, whether january 6 was an "inside job." Those who have answered "incorrectly" have not gotten a callback. As for this Trumpublican administration ignoring lower court orders, well, sure it will. Remember Stalin's famous line in 1935, when challenged to improve the treatment of Catholics in the Soviet Union, "How many divisions does the Pope have?" I'm willing to bet that someone has said that easy-to-remember line to Trump in the context of, how many divisions does a District Court have, especially in the context of having Hegspeth in Control (capital letter in keeping with the new standards in written/text English) of the military. Lucian, would you use your working wrist to pour a glass of what you're having and put it on a table for Elijah?
There is great clarity there, but it is still scary as hell.
Goggin writes, "Both of these precedents give strong support to the United States courts to order the U.S. Military to enforce contempt orders against members of the administration who refuse to abide by the Constitution as the U.S. courts have determined. If they fail to follow final adjudicated court Orders, they will be arrested, just as the insurrectionists of January 6 were arrested, tried and convicted."
I don't see how they can be tried. In 1866, in Ex parte Milligan, the Supreme Court ruled that military tribunals cannot try civilians when civil courts are functioning. Maybe the Supreme Court, aware that its own power would be at stake, would overturn or distinguish Ex parte Milligan.
Vital. Right to the heart of our situation. Thank you, Lucian!