There are so many things we don’t know about the current situation in Ukraine, I hesitate to say there is one thing I can tell you with absolute certainty, but here it is: Pentagon press secretary John Kirby goes to a lot of meetings every day -- I mean multiple, copious, numerous, multitudinous meetings. When you see his grim visage on your television screens with that oval crest reading “The Pentagon” behind him, you can count on the fact that he is the single most briefed individual in that building across the Potomac River from Washington, D.C. where no less than 25,000 toil.
What nerve for Russians to come to the tables to suggest they will negotiate a peace—I want to know how they plan to FINANCE REPAIRS AND REBUILDING. Those mother-fkrz have bombed civilian city centers. They should be made to pay, pay, PAY.
Thank you for your breakdown of “read between the lines”! It is important that people think outside of the box and it is too bad that Russians do not question the atrocities that Putin is committing. They simply don’t get the fact that he is dragging them down with him in the sinking ship because over the many years, he deprogrammed them. I do believe, however, the young folk there are very aware of what all of the incidentals. That’s why they protested. I believe I heard over 15,000 had been arrested and for over 12-15 years, they will occupy a jail cell. How crazy is all of this?
Kirby is our link to the Pentagon and to what is taking place with the Russian troops. You are so right about “them” knowing where the enemy lurks. Really really good analysis!
So Luc, if you pile on all the Russian dysfunction (military, financial, economic, internal civil, governmental, international) and then suggest Putin is disconnected from his own inner circle because no one will tell him the truth, do you see a failed state?
It is also very apparent that the Pentagon, in doing these briefings are also aware that any Russian assets in the US are watching them on the TV, far more carefully than might be imagined, because they can't get any information from their own sources, which have been shut down by the government.
I can just imagine the Russian spies sitting around the billiards room of the Embassy or consulate watching the news briefings and recording them for their bosses back in Moscow.
I also wonder if Putin has a satellite dish and connections to the Western media? I bet he has, and I bet he also has it translated into Russian so he can figure out what he isn't getting for information.
He isn't stupid. Just arrogant, and the US military/intelligence community knows that too.
We really do get a perspective here we don't get from the regular news channels and coupled together gives a much fuller picture. Since the last newsletter the picture changed again as stated, Apparently a full withdrawal from Kyriv not happening as they announced, at least not yet in spite of intercepted Russian messages indicating drastic shortages of food, water and fuel,
Putin was counting on Americans to pay as much attention to Ukraine as we did to Crimea, Grozny, Georgia, etc. If TFG were still holed up in the White House making crazy noises, that might have been so. But the Biden Administration revealed what it saw, and what it revealed turned out to be true. That was 💩 tin's miscalculation...
Appreciate the informed analysis and insight. It is helpful to have a sense of day-to-day circumstances, relative momentum and prospects. Thank you, as always, Lucian.
Your report here makes me feel like I’m a part of the Pentagon! Wow! Just when I’ve thought I’ve read your best another comes along and like the old song…’You’re [& your newest article ] the Top’! By Cole Porter 1934
Yes, thanks for the analyses, this one in particular in so far as it puts the American response into perspective and allows me to consider the Pentagon's briefings better. This is an important aspect of the news wars we experience.
Excellent article and blessed with concise details. Thank you Lucian.
The ugly question is how this ends in Russia. Someone needs to show videos of dead sons of mother Russia rotting in the grass along side Ukraine highways and ask, "What do we tell their mothers?"
Tuesday might have been the first public hint Russia's Army is becoming divided and the late night quarrels will only get worse. Perhaps in a week or so, tanks will roll into Moscow and far suburban palaces are in flames. Imagine Putin in handcuffs being taken out to a van and sent to Moscow to face a court on TV? Probably not, but his loyalists must be wondering what will happen to them?
At some point hundreds of mothers and sisters will appear in Red Square with color photos of their sons and how long will the generals and millions of veterans and other mothers ignore them?
As always Lucian, thank you for an interest and thoughtful post. I think it should also be noted that Kirby is no political hack Press Secretary; as a retired admiral he has bonafide credibility.
It just occurred to me that could we be giving Putin an out by saying that he has been lied to? Could this be a way for him to deescalate while saving face?
Old friend, I realize I am not paying enough for the on spot reporting I am receiving from you. For over fifty years I have benefitted from your knowledge and expertise, God bless you and if their is anything I can do, please call on me. I will answer the the call.
Lucian, this analysis is thorough and brilliant. It is taking me some time to digest and absorb. I have a few small quibbles with some of it, perhaps you could say clarifications, but overall this analysis is superb. You could call the quibbles first-world problems, luxury (“champagne”) issues, because without your analysis, there would be no quibbles.
My first reply is this:
On or around the start of the invasion, a brand new Eastern European-style name appeared on Substack and asked if the U.S. had gone to DEFCON 2. Talk about exceptionally suspicious and highly inappropriate question. I replied by suggesting that no one should reply, and no one did reply. I can’t recall if this exchange took place here, on Greg Olear, or on Heather Cox Richardson, but I could locate it if need be, because even if that person deletes their post, my post is still visible.
So for all of you, keep in mind that Substack is an open forum, meaning that it is accessible to the Russian FSB. I am convinced they post regularly to HCR, under several different profile names, and I have excellent reason to believe they observe and post here as well.
That said, we should be mindful that our well-intentioned efforts to educate ourselves and each other with the truth are being observed and utilized by Russian govt. disinformation. A word to the wise.
What nerve for Russians to come to the tables to suggest they will negotiate a peace—I want to know how they plan to FINANCE REPAIRS AND REBUILDING. Those mother-fkrz have bombed civilian city centers. They should be made to pay, pay, PAY.
Thank you for your breakdown of “read between the lines”! It is important that people think outside of the box and it is too bad that Russians do not question the atrocities that Putin is committing. They simply don’t get the fact that he is dragging them down with him in the sinking ship because over the many years, he deprogrammed them. I do believe, however, the young folk there are very aware of what all of the incidentals. That’s why they protested. I believe I heard over 15,000 had been arrested and for over 12-15 years, they will occupy a jail cell. How crazy is all of this?
Kirby is our link to the Pentagon and to what is taking place with the Russian troops. You are so right about “them” knowing where the enemy lurks. Really really good analysis!
So Luc, if you pile on all the Russian dysfunction (military, financial, economic, internal civil, governmental, international) and then suggest Putin is disconnected from his own inner circle because no one will tell him the truth, do you see a failed state?
Bill
It is also very apparent that the Pentagon, in doing these briefings are also aware that any Russian assets in the US are watching them on the TV, far more carefully than might be imagined, because they can't get any information from their own sources, which have been shut down by the government.
I can just imagine the Russian spies sitting around the billiards room of the Embassy or consulate watching the news briefings and recording them for their bosses back in Moscow.
I also wonder if Putin has a satellite dish and connections to the Western media? I bet he has, and I bet he also has it translated into Russian so he can figure out what he isn't getting for information.
He isn't stupid. Just arrogant, and the US military/intelligence community knows that too.
We really do get a perspective here we don't get from the regular news channels and coupled together gives a much fuller picture. Since the last newsletter the picture changed again as stated, Apparently a full withdrawal from Kyriv not happening as they announced, at least not yet in spite of intercepted Russian messages indicating drastic shortages of food, water and fuel,
Putin was counting on Americans to pay as much attention to Ukraine as we did to Crimea, Grozny, Georgia, etc. If TFG were still holed up in the White House making crazy noises, that might have been so. But the Biden Administration revealed what it saw, and what it revealed turned out to be true. That was 💩 tin's miscalculation...
Appreciate the informed analysis and insight. It is helpful to have a sense of day-to-day circumstances, relative momentum and prospects. Thank you, as always, Lucian.
Your report here makes me feel like I’m a part of the Pentagon! Wow! Just when I’ve thought I’ve read your best another comes along and like the old song…’You’re [& your newest article ] the Top’! By Cole Porter 1934
Yes, thanks for the analyses, this one in particular in so far as it puts the American response into perspective and allows me to consider the Pentagon's briefings better. This is an important aspect of the news wars we experience.
Excellent article and blessed with concise details. Thank you Lucian.
The ugly question is how this ends in Russia. Someone needs to show videos of dead sons of mother Russia rotting in the grass along side Ukraine highways and ask, "What do we tell their mothers?"
Tuesday might have been the first public hint Russia's Army is becoming divided and the late night quarrels will only get worse. Perhaps in a week or so, tanks will roll into Moscow and far suburban palaces are in flames. Imagine Putin in handcuffs being taken out to a van and sent to Moscow to face a court on TV? Probably not, but his loyalists must be wondering what will happen to them?
At some point hundreds of mothers and sisters will appear in Red Square with color photos of their sons and how long will the generals and millions of veterans and other mothers ignore them?
As always Lucian, thank you for an interest and thoughtful post. I think it should also be noted that Kirby is no political hack Press Secretary; as a retired admiral he has bonafide credibility.
Very cool and lucid analysis. Lucian scores again!
It just occurred to me that could we be giving Putin an out by saying that he has been lied to? Could this be a way for him to deescalate while saving face?
Old friend, I realize I am not paying enough for the on spot reporting I am receiving from you. For over fifty years I have benefitted from your knowledge and expertise, God bless you and if their is anything I can do, please call on me. I will answer the the call.
Lucian, this analysis is thorough and brilliant. It is taking me some time to digest and absorb. I have a few small quibbles with some of it, perhaps you could say clarifications, but overall this analysis is superb. You could call the quibbles first-world problems, luxury (“champagne”) issues, because without your analysis, there would be no quibbles.
My first reply is this:
On or around the start of the invasion, a brand new Eastern European-style name appeared on Substack and asked if the U.S. had gone to DEFCON 2. Talk about exceptionally suspicious and highly inappropriate question. I replied by suggesting that no one should reply, and no one did reply. I can’t recall if this exchange took place here, on Greg Olear, or on Heather Cox Richardson, but I could locate it if need be, because even if that person deletes their post, my post is still visible.
So for all of you, keep in mind that Substack is an open forum, meaning that it is accessible to the Russian FSB. I am convinced they post regularly to HCR, under several different profile names, and I have excellent reason to believe they observe and post here as well.
That said, we should be mindful that our well-intentioned efforts to educate ourselves and each other with the truth are being observed and utilized by Russian govt. disinformation. A word to the wise.
The fog of war.
Who knows what's really going on? I put my dollars on the US (and UK and France) intel and spook agencies.
We have satellites and fiber optic taps that are super top secret and incredibly effective, not to mention moles in the Kremlin.
I believe the west is winning the information and intelligence battle.
Nice to see the Pentagon strategically use misinformation and just enough real information the way Vlad has done for years.
And Ukraine has been magnificent using social media to win the hearts and minds of the world.