The Washington Post reported this morning that Yevgeny Prigozhin, so-called friend of Putin and the man behind the mercenary Wagner Group fighting in Bakhmut, made an offer to Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate that if Ukraine pulled its forces out of Bakhmut, he would provide “information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them.” According to the Post, this information came from the leaks of sensitive U.S.
My jaw dropped when I read the WaPo article. Wow. Prigozhin might want to read up on Ernst Rohm and what happened to him.
Important safety tip for Russian oligarchs and others power players in Putin's autocratic state: Always have an anti-defenestration plan in place and update it frequently.
Why one shouldn’t trust in and rely on mercenaries to fight for you. Their “loyalty” extends only as far as their next payday, especially with their leaders. Military history is replete with instances of soldiers for hire changing flags and sides when they aren’t paid and supplied, but then Putin is obviously no student of history. Plus Putin has no loyalty except to himself, so it’s no surprise that his advisers and cronies are no more loyal than he is and only tell him what he wants to hear, until it’s too late. His massive malicious ego will be his and Russia’s undoing.
Putin’s painted himself into a corner and it’s way, way too late to back out now. He can’t win and like a cornered rat, he’ll scratch and bite at his enemies until he’s killed. I can see no other resolution to this mess he’s created. Maybe if he had acted sooner when his stooge trump was in the White House he might have carried out his dream of restoring Mother Russia to her glory days without interference, but it’s not feasible now. Only his death will end this madness…
He more likely will try his best to get the orange traitor back into our White House (by interfering, again) in order to stop us from helping Ukraine, and to have his useful idiot at his disposal once more. (I say "our White House" because as far as I'm concerned, the orange traitor has no claim to it anymore after committing treason by orchestrating 1/6, and by stealing our classified documents, which I'd bet he has already disclosed to Americas adversaries.)
There's more than one cornered rat out there. The sooner they're all gone, the better.
Lucian, I genuinely hope this is "solid" information but I have to say (as I'm certain you know) that Putin, from his days as a KGB officer, knows how to deal in disinformation. I saw firsthand how it was used during the Cold War. The only way we're ever going to know for sure that Prigo really offered to help Ukraine (and betray Putin) is when he turns up dead.
Yes, my immediate suspicion as well. And "we" need to know details, reliable details, about the chain of possession with respect to IT Jack Teixiera's leaked documents, in case anyone (FSB, SVR, GRU, free lance wingnuts, who knows?) might have tampered with the original documents.
That might happen sometime in the next thirty or forty years, though, if then.
This whole thing is so fascinating. There's a wonderful article also in National Memo., if I don't butcher that there are so many "Nationals" around right now, that Ukraine's protection of Bakhmut was brilliant because Russia has lost at least 100,000 on the battlefield and had Ukraine lost this spot, they would be extremely vulnerable. It is actually shocking to me that Russia looks like such a rookie in this, like they're so used to throwing their weight around -- shoving people out of windows, poisoning them and murdering them all over the world -- that they just don't seem to have come to terms with how inept they actually are. They've got a lot more to throw at Ukraine than Ukraine had to throw at them. I think many AMericans are more and more on Ukraine's side with each passing day. These folks have hearts of lions and they're fighting for their country and their people. You don't always get to slay the giant. Looks like they might just get that done. PS And that wonderful National Memo article. well, Lucian wrote it. Hahahaha....I like to feed writers back what they wrote, apparently.
On NPR this morning they interviewed When the Heavens Went on Sale author. Fascinating. And Russia has a satellite that goes over the battlefield once every two weeks. Ukraine when they want to "see" something, they get that heavy grade resolution satellite imagery from the U.S. that will read what color your eyeballs are and the tag number on your miniature bicycle. So I've been deeply into Ukraine and its current success this morning. Russian's outdated everything has been an enormous advantage to the Ukrainians.
LOL. Most likely. I read it in the wee hours this morning before my brain was fully engaged but I gotta say, it felt just like you. so yes! It's probably not going to be the last time I bring back your words to you.
This war gets foggier all the time. With our help Ukraine is probably very well informed. They have survived the past 15-months, and maybe they can strike the Russians with a knockout blow with all the weaponry they're getting. It's my birthday so I get to make wishes.
Mercenaries cannot be trusted...ever. I'm thinking of right-wing oligarch Eric Prince's Blackwater, now operating under different names. Our government should learn from Putin's Wagner Group.
On the other hand, Prigozhin may be serving as Putin's fall guy for his failed invasion. Putin is old school KGB.
Re Prigozhin and Putin falling out, I am reminded of the old, though not tactical phrase, "Let's you and him fight." That can only work to Ukraine's advantage.
Mr Prigozhin is now saying the Western intelligence operatives planted that story to foment confusion in Mother Russia. It seems to me no such fomenting is required.
Prigozhin must have made his offer from an 'undisclosed location' far away from Moscow. This sort of brazen treachery must be directly proportionate to the extent that Vladimir Putin feels confident that he will eventually prevail, not only in his war with Ukraine, but with potential rivals within the Russian government and penumbra of influential figures that surround governmental figures. This is not the kind of guy that Putin can expect to casually assassinate, like various figures in exile living abroad.
Likewise, Prigozhin is not any ordinary oligarch sucking on the Russian state's teat in order to buy himself a second, and even bigger yacht. As you suggest, this is a direct challenge to Putin's competency as a wartime commander, and the competencies of the various Russian generals who kowtow to Putin, hoping to retain his favor. In an American context, it's almost like imagining Union General Ulysses Grant placing an ad in a Richmond, Virginia, newspaper, offering his military services and expertise to the rebellious Confederacy, circa 1862.
This is one brazen bully attempting to intimidate another brazen bully, and things will not go well for either of them. The happenstance that the 'intelligence' that Prigozhin is willing to peddle to Ukraine is either fabricated, inaccurate, or simply outdated, is a telling commentary on how badly off the mark Russia is in pursuing this conflict. The sheer brazenness of Prigozhin's treachery can be interpreted in several ways. One way would be that Prigozhin has no fear of retribution from Vladimir Putin, or anyone close to him. That may be through gross naïveté or active stupidity. He's gone out of his way to make Putin a blood enemy, whatever the outcome of this war turns out to be. Joseph Stalin tracked Leon Trotsky all the way to Mexico City in order to send an assassin to kill him in 1940. Trotsky was the epitome of the former comrade who turns on his friend over fundamental differences. Prigozhin is as much saying the same thing. The generals' behavior cannot be separated from that of Vladimir Putin; those who enlist in the cause of a tyrant cannot be expected to exercise independent judgment to change course if the tyrant himself is unwilling to heed the counsel of his close advisors. As with Donald Trump, the mediocrities clustered around Vladimir Putin are all yes-men. There is not one independent thinker among them.
Vladimir Putin may be incapable of feeling shame or remorse, but the rage he must be experiencing at this public the trial must be cracking the window glass everywhere within the Kremlin where Putin is stomping around, unable to sit still in his fury. We used to read about adult Hitler's monumental tirades against his generals as his enemies closed in on him. Putin is likely to be no different. He started this war with no plan larger than the fantasy in his head, and when that failed, he could not bring himself to change course. Those reporting to him will try to hide from Putin as long as they can, but eventually they are going to have to face him and absorb his tirade, if they have the stomach to do so. Even as Vladimir Putin reaches back into the ancient world of Ivan the Terrible to imagine the sordid and bloody punishments that he plans for Prigozhin, if he can capture him, likely as not, everything else ongoing within the Kremlin grinds to a halt. No one wants to do anything to set Putin off again with his rage directed at themselves.
Vladimir Putin's volcanic rage will eventually defeat him, sooner rather than later, now that his pawn Prigozhin has turned on him, in effect daring him to respond. But, we will soon see what happens. If Prigozhin is still alive a month from now, we will know that Vladimir Putin has unleashed forces within Russia that he can no longer control; and that is not necessarily a good thing for everyone around, because it adds further instability into an already tumultuous part of the world.
Confucius say: If one sells out their country and puts a target on their own back, best they have something of value to offer. A good place to hide is also recommended. This sounds like a lose-lose.
Prigozhin is a dead man walking. But Putin may feel he serves an insidious purpose: stirring up the not-terribly-latent Russian penchant for blaming everything from bad weather to economic devastation on the Jews. Until now, Putin has been remarkable among Russian leaders -- going back centuries -- in not wielding the anti-Semitism weapon. People have speculated that may be because as a king growing up in Leningrad, a close friend was Jewish and the friend’s family treated young Vlad very well. Who knows? Early on in the Ukraine build-up, he even accused the Ukrainians of being anti-Semitic (as if the majority of Russians would find this reprehensible). This, despite the fact that Ukraine is the only country in the world beside Israel with a Jewish head of state. But now, Prigozhin gives Vladimir a chance to reset the stage and play into traditional Russian prejudices. It will be interesting to see if he takes advantage of the opportunity.
Prigozhin is a direct threat to Putin so it only makes sense that he wouldn't be supplied with more ammunition that could be used against Putin. All of these "leaks" have to be taken with a huge grain of salt as they appear to be more about psych-ops than actual military grade information to be used in battle. Also don't forget about those boring realities on the ground, the soil is still too wet for heavy equipment to travel over.
I have to admit I had never heard of the word "defenestration" until Putey made it the leading cause of death among certain acquaintances and rivals. Great reporting....
Coney Island once had a famous mob canary that the NY Daily News reported could sing but could not fly. (Which I hope is self-explanatory and doesn't require reposting a whole wikipedia chapter as a comment.)
My jaw dropped when I read the WaPo article. Wow. Prigozhin might want to read up on Ernst Rohm and what happened to him.
Important safety tip for Russian oligarchs and others power players in Putin's autocratic state: Always have an anti-defenestration plan in place and update it frequently.
Why one shouldn’t trust in and rely on mercenaries to fight for you. Their “loyalty” extends only as far as their next payday, especially with their leaders. Military history is replete with instances of soldiers for hire changing flags and sides when they aren’t paid and supplied, but then Putin is obviously no student of history. Plus Putin has no loyalty except to himself, so it’s no surprise that his advisers and cronies are no more loyal than he is and only tell him what he wants to hear, until it’s too late. His massive malicious ego will be his and Russia’s undoing.
We can hope. I'm no militarist but I don't see how Putin backs away from his war. He has to win or go down as Russia's "leader". We shall see.
Putin’s painted himself into a corner and it’s way, way too late to back out now. He can’t win and like a cornered rat, he’ll scratch and bite at his enemies until he’s killed. I can see no other resolution to this mess he’s created. Maybe if he had acted sooner when his stooge trump was in the White House he might have carried out his dream of restoring Mother Russia to her glory days without interference, but it’s not feasible now. Only his death will end this madness…
He more likely will try his best to get the orange traitor back into our White House (by interfering, again) in order to stop us from helping Ukraine, and to have his useful idiot at his disposal once more. (I say "our White House" because as far as I'm concerned, the orange traitor has no claim to it anymore after committing treason by orchestrating 1/6, and by stealing our classified documents, which I'd bet he has already disclosed to Americas adversaries.)
There's more than one cornered rat out there. The sooner they're all gone, the better.
From your mouth to Russian ears....
Again Lucian you provide us with deep insight. Thank you. Things fall apart when the center does not hold...,...
Lucian, I genuinely hope this is "solid" information but I have to say (as I'm certain you know) that Putin, from his days as a KGB officer, knows how to deal in disinformation. I saw firsthand how it was used during the Cold War. The only way we're ever going to know for sure that Prigo really offered to help Ukraine (and betray Putin) is when he turns up dead.
Yes, my immediate suspicion as well. And "we" need to know details, reliable details, about the chain of possession with respect to IT Jack Teixiera's leaked documents, in case anyone (FSB, SVR, GRU, free lance wingnuts, who knows?) might have tampered with the original documents.
That might happen sometime in the next thirty or forty years, though, if then.
This whole thing is so fascinating. There's a wonderful article also in National Memo., if I don't butcher that there are so many "Nationals" around right now, that Ukraine's protection of Bakhmut was brilliant because Russia has lost at least 100,000 on the battlefield and had Ukraine lost this spot, they would be extremely vulnerable. It is actually shocking to me that Russia looks like such a rookie in this, like they're so used to throwing their weight around -- shoving people out of windows, poisoning them and murdering them all over the world -- that they just don't seem to have come to terms with how inept they actually are. They've got a lot more to throw at Ukraine than Ukraine had to throw at them. I think many AMericans are more and more on Ukraine's side with each passing day. These folks have hearts of lions and they're fighting for their country and their people. You don't always get to slay the giant. Looks like they might just get that done. PS And that wonderful National Memo article. well, Lucian wrote it. Hahahaha....I like to feed writers back what they wrote, apparently.
I think you'll find that piece on National Memo is mine. I let them reprint my stuff.
On NPR this morning they interviewed When the Heavens Went on Sale author. Fascinating. And Russia has a satellite that goes over the battlefield once every two weeks. Ukraine when they want to "see" something, they get that heavy grade resolution satellite imagery from the U.S. that will read what color your eyeballs are and the tag number on your miniature bicycle. So I've been deeply into Ukraine and its current success this morning. Russian's outdated everything has been an enormous advantage to the Ukrainians.
LOL. Most likely. I read it in the wee hours this morning before my brain was fully engaged but I gotta say, it felt just like you. so yes! It's probably not going to be the last time I bring back your words to you.
Does this guy look like a cartoon super-villain or what?
Hilarious! That's exactly what he looks like. Reminds me of Peter Sellars, Pink Panther, without the intelligent cleverness and fun.
This war gets foggier all the time. With our help Ukraine is probably very well informed. They have survived the past 15-months, and maybe they can strike the Russians with a knockout blow with all the weaponry they're getting. It's my birthday so I get to make wishes.
Mazel tov, Richard Knabel! May all your wishes come true.
Hey Richard, Happy Birthday!🎉🎉
Mercenaries cannot be trusted...ever. I'm thinking of right-wing oligarch Eric Prince's Blackwater, now operating under different names. Our government should learn from Putin's Wagner Group.
On the other hand, Prigozhin may be serving as Putin's fall guy for his failed invasion. Putin is old school KGB.
Re Prigozhin and Putin falling out, I am reminded of the old, though not tactical phrase, "Let's you and him fight." That can only work to Ukraine's advantage.
Thank you, Mr. Truscott, for your cogent presentation of a tangle of facts. Kudos for your clear reporting of a muddy story; well done.
Mr Prigozhin is now saying the Western intelligence operatives planted that story to foment confusion in Mother Russia. It seems to me no such fomenting is required.
Nevertheless, foment away, it's just a little harmless fun.
“I foment therefore I am.”
- René’s brother, Ricky.
Ah ha...theDescartes Twins.
😉😂
I wondered whether it was a Western Intelligence plant when I first read it. If it is - well done!
Prigozhin must have made his offer from an 'undisclosed location' far away from Moscow. This sort of brazen treachery must be directly proportionate to the extent that Vladimir Putin feels confident that he will eventually prevail, not only in his war with Ukraine, but with potential rivals within the Russian government and penumbra of influential figures that surround governmental figures. This is not the kind of guy that Putin can expect to casually assassinate, like various figures in exile living abroad.
Likewise, Prigozhin is not any ordinary oligarch sucking on the Russian state's teat in order to buy himself a second, and even bigger yacht. As you suggest, this is a direct challenge to Putin's competency as a wartime commander, and the competencies of the various Russian generals who kowtow to Putin, hoping to retain his favor. In an American context, it's almost like imagining Union General Ulysses Grant placing an ad in a Richmond, Virginia, newspaper, offering his military services and expertise to the rebellious Confederacy, circa 1862.
This is one brazen bully attempting to intimidate another brazen bully, and things will not go well for either of them. The happenstance that the 'intelligence' that Prigozhin is willing to peddle to Ukraine is either fabricated, inaccurate, or simply outdated, is a telling commentary on how badly off the mark Russia is in pursuing this conflict. The sheer brazenness of Prigozhin's treachery can be interpreted in several ways. One way would be that Prigozhin has no fear of retribution from Vladimir Putin, or anyone close to him. That may be through gross naïveté or active stupidity. He's gone out of his way to make Putin a blood enemy, whatever the outcome of this war turns out to be. Joseph Stalin tracked Leon Trotsky all the way to Mexico City in order to send an assassin to kill him in 1940. Trotsky was the epitome of the former comrade who turns on his friend over fundamental differences. Prigozhin is as much saying the same thing. The generals' behavior cannot be separated from that of Vladimir Putin; those who enlist in the cause of a tyrant cannot be expected to exercise independent judgment to change course if the tyrant himself is unwilling to heed the counsel of his close advisors. As with Donald Trump, the mediocrities clustered around Vladimir Putin are all yes-men. There is not one independent thinker among them.
Vladimir Putin may be incapable of feeling shame or remorse, but the rage he must be experiencing at this public the trial must be cracking the window glass everywhere within the Kremlin where Putin is stomping around, unable to sit still in his fury. We used to read about adult Hitler's monumental tirades against his generals as his enemies closed in on him. Putin is likely to be no different. He started this war with no plan larger than the fantasy in his head, and when that failed, he could not bring himself to change course. Those reporting to him will try to hide from Putin as long as they can, but eventually they are going to have to face him and absorb his tirade, if they have the stomach to do so. Even as Vladimir Putin reaches back into the ancient world of Ivan the Terrible to imagine the sordid and bloody punishments that he plans for Prigozhin, if he can capture him, likely as not, everything else ongoing within the Kremlin grinds to a halt. No one wants to do anything to set Putin off again with his rage directed at themselves.
Vladimir Putin's volcanic rage will eventually defeat him, sooner rather than later, now that his pawn Prigozhin has turned on him, in effect daring him to respond. But, we will soon see what happens. If Prigozhin is still alive a month from now, we will know that Vladimir Putin has unleashed forces within Russia that he can no longer control; and that is not necessarily a good thing for everyone around, because it adds further instability into an already tumultuous part of the world.
Confucius say: If one sells out their country and puts a target on their own back, best they have something of value to offer. A good place to hide is also recommended. This sounds like a lose-lose.
Prigozhin is a dead man walking. But Putin may feel he serves an insidious purpose: stirring up the not-terribly-latent Russian penchant for blaming everything from bad weather to economic devastation on the Jews. Until now, Putin has been remarkable among Russian leaders -- going back centuries -- in not wielding the anti-Semitism weapon. People have speculated that may be because as a king growing up in Leningrad, a close friend was Jewish and the friend’s family treated young Vlad very well. Who knows? Early on in the Ukraine build-up, he even accused the Ukrainians of being anti-Semitic (as if the majority of Russians would find this reprehensible). This, despite the fact that Ukraine is the only country in the world beside Israel with a Jewish head of state. But now, Prigozhin gives Vladimir a chance to reset the stage and play into traditional Russian prejudices. It will be interesting to see if he takes advantage of the opportunity.
Prigozhin is a direct threat to Putin so it only makes sense that he wouldn't be supplied with more ammunition that could be used against Putin. All of these "leaks" have to be taken with a huge grain of salt as they appear to be more about psych-ops than actual military grade information to be used in battle. Also don't forget about those boring realities on the ground, the soil is still too wet for heavy equipment to travel over.
I have to admit I had never heard of the word "defenestration" until Putey made it the leading cause of death among certain acquaintances and rivals. Great reporting....
"Ouvrez le fenetre et voila! Vous etes mort!"
The thing about Yevgeny V. Prigozhin is he has such a good-natured, kindly face, how could he be a bad person?
Coney Island once had a famous mob canary that the NY Daily News reported could sing but could not fly. (Which I hope is self-explanatory and doesn't require reposting a whole wikipedia chapter as a comment.)
Look up "The Defenestration of Prague." That happened as early as 1618.