It appears the Russians are hopelessly losing although the Putin spin machine is doing all it can to create the impression of inflicting grievous harm on American imperialists by sanctioning high profile politicians like President Biden and Hillary Clinton. No more carefree vacations on the shores of the East Siberian Sea.
Meanwhile, Lilia Gildeyeva reportedly quit her job at Putin friendly Gazprom-Media's channel NTV and fled Russia. She submitted her resignation after leaving the country. I would really like to see more of this type of revolt. Like the editor rushing on camera with a handmade sign telling viewers the special operation is a lie.
Excellent post, Lucian. I read an essay about the reasons why Russian logistics are so poor. In short, it's because they are based on rail transport, a fact exacerbated by the Soviet wide-gauge tracks that are almost unique in the world. Their lines have stalled at almost the exact distance from the border regardless of the direction, and the lack of progress has reduced them to shelling residential areas to "break the will" of the people.
Certainly not an impressive display of military strategy, tactics, logistics, technology, or combat capability.
I think your assessment of what will happen as opposed to what Putin wants to happen is correct. He wants to be seen as a victor of a war he thought he could win in less than a week, only to be stymied by his own military's incompetence, lack of training and weapons-to be defeated by a much smaller and tougher force.
I think he will be having a lot of people jailed for this because they literally undermined his capability to wage war, and this makes him look like a loser, which is not what he wants.
He won't crawl to the peace table, but he sure won't let anyone call him a loser, either. The US and NATO should be giving him options to walk away with his 'victory' and lick his wounds in private. I don't believe China will be doing much in the way of helping him either, because they depend on the outside world for their money-they can't do sanctions by helping him out.
I just wish it were over. His ego has cost enough lives as it is. He can take and lick his wounds in his dacha while he plots his revenge.
In some respects, the Ukrainian Army is the 21st century’s version of the troops led by Francis Marion, AKA The Swamp Fox. Gotta love the courage and tactics of these heroes.
It would be a blessing for Ukraine if Putin is looking for a facesaving exit. I saw someone talking about the likelihood of the International Criminal Court levying war crime charges on him, though. He said that if that’s the case then sanctions on Russia would remain in place until Russians are out of Ukraine and Putin has been handed over for trial in The Hague.
Did Putin simply think that because he is Putin and Russia is Russia, he could sit back in his gilded bunker and order his military to take Ukraine and it would happen just like that? Was it his truly gigantic ego, or was it decades of corruption that stripped Russia’s defense budget and turned its army into an amateurish shell filled with goof-offs and half-wits right out of the movie “Stripes?”
Take virtually any sentence describing Putin, substitute America for Russia and Trump for Putin and it will be equally true. It’s the Era of the Malignant Narcissist.
This is a fantastic column, Lucian. If somebody knew nothing whatsoever about the Ukraine story, this would tell them all they’d need to know. Sharing.
This may or may not be a relevant comment, but your words on Russian corruption is not a new story. I have Soviet Refuseniks on both sides of my family. And one came for humanitarian reasons: his 3 year old had Leukemia, and City of Hope agreed to treat him. The father asked my family "How much does it cost to bribe the nurses to change the sheets and care for his child." He wanted to make sure he had enough money.
Another Russian elder cousin explained how his job worked as an economist in the Soviet Union. "Say I'm asked to study why the distribution of shoes throughout the country is so poor." (You may remember this at one time was a major issue.) "I'll study the issue and make a full report that specifically points out areas of weakness. Upper management will see this as casting a bad reflection on the Soviet State, so the report gets buried. No solution, but no longer a problem either!"
I saw an army much like the Russian army you describe in Spain in 1964. It was the 35th anniversary of Francisco Franco's Falangist victory over the Spanish Republic. The soldiers were wearing what looked like cheap knockoffs of cast-off Wehrmacht helmets and personal equipment harnesses. They were sloppy and disheveled, and when they marched their column was stretched out along one of the main boulevards of Madrid like a troop of Boy Scouts on a field trip. The band music consisted entirely of recorded marches on a scratchy record, broadcast through a collection of worn and battered loud speakers set up along the route of march. The sound was harsh, scratchy, and barely audible. My former Army ROTC company back at San Jose State College marched to and from weekly drills with more precision and elan. The entire experience was both laughable and really weird.
I am a bit slow on the uptake, but I just learned that Kyiv has a population of almost 3 million. How on earth can the Russians control a city almost the size of Chicago with a military of only 190,000? And this means there are no soldiers left over for the entire country. The idea of Russia occupying Ukraine thus seems absolutely absurd.
haha! But they gave out so many medals! I remember reading at the time, more medals were awarded than active participants. Doofuses sitting at desks signing papers were given medals same as the grunts on the ground (such as they were, whipping up on Cuban construction workers and such).
I hope you'll forgive the liberties I've taken here, but I just can't help it: the roots of Trump's affinity for Putin become more glaring every day. My "edits" in brackets: "Did [Trump] simply think that because he is [Trump] and [the U.S.] is [the U.S.], he could sit back in [the White House] and order his [base] to [overturn the election] and it would happen just like that? Was it his truly gigantic ego, or was it decades of corruption that stripped [the GOP] and turned [his administration] into an amateurish shell filled with goof-offs and half-wits right out of the movie 'Stripes'?"
Good article: While everyone debates Russia's army Ukraine is getting reduced to rubble. Who is going to pay for reconstruction? This war shows that times have changed, much of the world has moved away from such violence. Russia's top generals should retire Putin to a farm, make peace with Ukraine and start Russia on a path to a modern consumer state.
"Retire Putin to a farm" as fertilizer, gets my vote. As would the seized funds and assets of Russia, Putin and its oligarchs being donated to Ukraine by the western democracies for the rebuilding, repatriation, and recovery of their people. If there is a successful outcome for peace from this the physical repairs will be the lesser obstacles for many of the survivors, especially the traumatized children. Let money stolen from the Russian army pay to repair the damage done by same.
another great read on the war from someone with worthy insight on the issues. thank you, LKTIV.
in some other article i read (i wish i could remember to credit), Soviet and Russian heads of state were so afraid of their armies being commanded by competent and agressive men they made sure to dispose of them before they got too powerful. as well, to ensure they were protected the heads made sure their Secret Service was strong, well equipped, and in positions to keep eyes on the military commanders.
as a result the military was headed up by weak and sycophantic men. in this war they didn't dare tell putin real hard facts. they just told him things he would like to hear.
Early on I read that what Putin feared was having a prospering Western country on his border. The familial links across that border to inform his populace of the benefits of freedom was the threat he feared, not military attack. The more human, infrastructure, and economic devastation he can leave behind, the better he likes it. Thousands of thumb drives crossing the border into Russia exposing what he has done might be the most grievous wound we could inflict on him.
It's almost deja vu of 1941, when the Soviet forces evaporated in the face of German assaults and blitzkrieg tactics. Which was a weakness against the Finns in the Winter War of 1939-40. The Russian army often seems to be less formidable than feared.
I believe an earlier analysis by LKT IV here of supplies and logistics indicated that the Russian army would not be able to resupply its units with ammunition, fuel, vehicles, or other necessities once the initial invasion wave was spent. We may well be seeing this in play.
All the more reason for NATO and the US to take the long view and decline to actively participate in this war more than they are now. No sense in risking a nuclear showdown (i.e., the fantasy "no-fly zone" that would involve clashing with Russian forces) if the Russian army is going to bog down in a stalemate and run out of steam in a fortnight. Putin may already be looking for a face-saving way out of this, and Zelensky would be wise to give it to him and turn attention to rebuilding Ukraine and wait for the other shoe to drop.
The world would breathe a collective sigh of relief.
It appears the Russians are hopelessly losing although the Putin spin machine is doing all it can to create the impression of inflicting grievous harm on American imperialists by sanctioning high profile politicians like President Biden and Hillary Clinton. No more carefree vacations on the shores of the East Siberian Sea.
Meanwhile, Lilia Gildeyeva reportedly quit her job at Putin friendly Gazprom-Media's channel NTV and fled Russia. She submitted her resignation after leaving the country. I would really like to see more of this type of revolt. Like the editor rushing on camera with a handmade sign telling viewers the special operation is a lie.
Excellent post, Lucian. I read an essay about the reasons why Russian logistics are so poor. In short, it's because they are based on rail transport, a fact exacerbated by the Soviet wide-gauge tracks that are almost unique in the world. Their lines have stalled at almost the exact distance from the border regardless of the direction, and the lack of progress has reduced them to shelling residential areas to "break the will" of the people.
Certainly not an impressive display of military strategy, tactics, logistics, technology, or combat capability.
I think your assessment of what will happen as opposed to what Putin wants to happen is correct. He wants to be seen as a victor of a war he thought he could win in less than a week, only to be stymied by his own military's incompetence, lack of training and weapons-to be defeated by a much smaller and tougher force.
I think he will be having a lot of people jailed for this because they literally undermined his capability to wage war, and this makes him look like a loser, which is not what he wants.
He won't crawl to the peace table, but he sure won't let anyone call him a loser, either. The US and NATO should be giving him options to walk away with his 'victory' and lick his wounds in private. I don't believe China will be doing much in the way of helping him either, because they depend on the outside world for their money-they can't do sanctions by helping him out.
I just wish it were over. His ego has cost enough lives as it is. He can take and lick his wounds in his dacha while he plots his revenge.
In some respects, the Ukrainian Army is the 21st century’s version of the troops led by Francis Marion, AKA The Swamp Fox. Gotta love the courage and tactics of these heroes.
It would be a blessing for Ukraine if Putin is looking for a facesaving exit. I saw someone talking about the likelihood of the International Criminal Court levying war crime charges on him, though. He said that if that’s the case then sanctions on Russia would remain in place until Russians are out of Ukraine and Putin has been handed over for trial in The Hague.
Crimes against humanity! He should be taken dead or alive. I prefer alive so he can reap what he sought.
Another excellent analysis! BZ!
…yet another empty claim…
Did Putin simply think that because he is Putin and Russia is Russia, he could sit back in his gilded bunker and order his military to take Ukraine and it would happen just like that? Was it his truly gigantic ego, or was it decades of corruption that stripped Russia’s defense budget and turned its army into an amateurish shell filled with goof-offs and half-wits right out of the movie “Stripes?”
Corruption and incompetence fed by sycophants!
Take virtually any sentence describing Putin, substitute America for Russia and Trump for Putin and it will be equally true. It’s the Era of the Malignant Narcissist.
This is a fantastic column, Lucian. If somebody knew nothing whatsoever about the Ukraine story, this would tell them all they’d need to know. Sharing.
This may or may not be a relevant comment, but your words on Russian corruption is not a new story. I have Soviet Refuseniks on both sides of my family. And one came for humanitarian reasons: his 3 year old had Leukemia, and City of Hope agreed to treat him. The father asked my family "How much does it cost to bribe the nurses to change the sheets and care for his child." He wanted to make sure he had enough money.
Another Russian elder cousin explained how his job worked as an economist in the Soviet Union. "Say I'm asked to study why the distribution of shoes throughout the country is so poor." (You may remember this at one time was a major issue.) "I'll study the issue and make a full report that specifically points out areas of weakness. Upper management will see this as casting a bad reflection on the Soviet State, so the report gets buried. No solution, but no longer a problem either!"
and probably the writer if the report and his supervisor are shipped off to siberia
I saw an army much like the Russian army you describe in Spain in 1964. It was the 35th anniversary of Francisco Franco's Falangist victory over the Spanish Republic. The soldiers were wearing what looked like cheap knockoffs of cast-off Wehrmacht helmets and personal equipment harnesses. They were sloppy and disheveled, and when they marched their column was stretched out along one of the main boulevards of Madrid like a troop of Boy Scouts on a field trip. The band music consisted entirely of recorded marches on a scratchy record, broadcast through a collection of worn and battered loud speakers set up along the route of march. The sound was harsh, scratchy, and barely audible. My former Army ROTC company back at San Jose State College marched to and from weekly drills with more precision and elan. The entire experience was both laughable and really weird.
I am a bit slow on the uptake, but I just learned that Kyiv has a population of almost 3 million. How on earth can the Russians control a city almost the size of Chicago with a military of only 190,000? And this means there are no soldiers left over for the entire country. The idea of Russia occupying Ukraine thus seems absolutely absurd.
Gotta love an inept opponent. What about our glorious victory in Grenada? It's the only one I can think of...
That was such a joke!
haha! But they gave out so many medals! I remember reading at the time, more medals were awarded than active participants. Doofuses sitting at desks signing papers were given medals same as the grunts on the ground (such as they were, whipping up on Cuban construction workers and such).
I hope you'll forgive the liberties I've taken here, but I just can't help it: the roots of Trump's affinity for Putin become more glaring every day. My "edits" in brackets: "Did [Trump] simply think that because he is [Trump] and [the U.S.] is [the U.S.], he could sit back in [the White House] and order his [base] to [overturn the election] and it would happen just like that? Was it his truly gigantic ego, or was it decades of corruption that stripped [the GOP] and turned [his administration] into an amateurish shell filled with goof-offs and half-wits right out of the movie 'Stripes'?"
Good article: While everyone debates Russia's army Ukraine is getting reduced to rubble. Who is going to pay for reconstruction? This war shows that times have changed, much of the world has moved away from such violence. Russia's top generals should retire Putin to a farm, make peace with Ukraine and start Russia on a path to a modern consumer state.
"Retire Putin to a farm" as fertilizer, gets my vote. As would the seized funds and assets of Russia, Putin and its oligarchs being donated to Ukraine by the western democracies for the rebuilding, repatriation, and recovery of their people. If there is a successful outcome for peace from this the physical repairs will be the lesser obstacles for many of the survivors, especially the traumatized children. Let money stolen from the Russian army pay to repair the damage done by same.
another great read on the war from someone with worthy insight on the issues. thank you, LKTIV.
in some other article i read (i wish i could remember to credit), Soviet and Russian heads of state were so afraid of their armies being commanded by competent and agressive men they made sure to dispose of them before they got too powerful. as well, to ensure they were protected the heads made sure their Secret Service was strong, well equipped, and in positions to keep eyes on the military commanders.
as a result the military was headed up by weak and sycophantic men. in this war they didn't dare tell putin real hard facts. they just told him things he would like to hear.
Early on I read that what Putin feared was having a prospering Western country on his border. The familial links across that border to inform his populace of the benefits of freedom was the threat he feared, not military attack. The more human, infrastructure, and economic devastation he can leave behind, the better he likes it. Thousands of thumb drives crossing the border into Russia exposing what he has done might be the most grievous wound we could inflict on him.
It's almost deja vu of 1941, when the Soviet forces evaporated in the face of German assaults and blitzkrieg tactics. Which was a weakness against the Finns in the Winter War of 1939-40. The Russian army often seems to be less formidable than feared.
I believe an earlier analysis by LKT IV here of supplies and logistics indicated that the Russian army would not be able to resupply its units with ammunition, fuel, vehicles, or other necessities once the initial invasion wave was spent. We may well be seeing this in play.
All the more reason for NATO and the US to take the long view and decline to actively participate in this war more than they are now. No sense in risking a nuclear showdown (i.e., the fantasy "no-fly zone" that would involve clashing with Russian forces) if the Russian army is going to bog down in a stalemate and run out of steam in a fortnight. Putin may already be looking for a face-saving way out of this, and Zelensky would be wise to give it to him and turn attention to rebuilding Ukraine and wait for the other shoe to drop.
The world would breathe a collective sigh of relief.