I’ve spent this morning going over Google Maps of Ukraine using clues from the satellite photos and what coverage there has been to determine what road the convoy is traveling along and where it might be located today.
If you are correct and what you posit makes a lot of sense given historic Russian doctrine this is not going to end up being an act by criminals. It will be a world class case of terrorism by a sovereign power on the helpless men , women and children of a sovereign nation. Thus, I would suggest Russia be designated as a terrorist nation and Putin a war criminal to boot.
Thanks for the cogent analysis. Makes a lot of sense if you don't have to worry about air security and having all those clustered vehicles hit from attack aircraft. Unfortunately, I also believe what you predict about civilian casualties is also dead on pardon the ugly pun. Putin wants to terrorize the Ukrainians and bludgeon them into submission. His army and air force practiced on Aleppo with barrel bombs so he is simply now going to do it all over again.
After the bloodletting there is going to be a Ukrainian resistance. How large and how effective will depend upon how many weapons they can secrete away and long the occupying Russians will take being knifed in the back on patrol or having their command posts blown to bits. It is then we are going to see Putin's real rage. For those who haven't heard of it look up Lidice and what happened in occupied Czechoslovakia under the Nazis and SS in WWII.
Once his occupation begins it will be time for the West, NATO , the EU and UN to ratchet up sanctions and embargoes to 11 and hold them in place until they destabilize Russia and Putin. When you are an outlaw nation the law abiding nations must do whatever is necessary to bring you and those who aided you to justice.
Humanity will not sit and watch slaughter. Syria was a civil war and there was little anyone could do. This is different, its premeditated murder of an innocent population. If Russia is allowed to destroy Ukraine then all of us become war criminals. NATO must act if only through proxies. Give the Ukraine resistance rockets and mortars. This is the time for Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk to donate thirty billion dollars for Ukraine's weapons. Solicit a million mercenaries and adventurers, keep Russia in a long protracted war. From the start there should be a concentrated effort to locate Putin and his staff and kill them. The world must make this war expensive and brutal for Russia, to stop them and discourage any other people who dream of military conquest.
I hope you are right but history does not support your belief. I fear in particular that the Western world is more concerned about loosing their creature comforts than about the suffering of even a nation of millions. The saying that ends with, "and then they came for me" comes to mind.
Lucian, I've been reading you for free, but I signed up today. I'm a retiree so money is scarce. But you told me today exactly what I wanted to know, and having read about your background, I knew you were basing your projections on experience and your studies. In fear and trepidation, I look forward to more of your insights. I figure out our military already knows what you know, and I hope our Administration does not feel like their hands are completely tied. Somehow, there must be a way to intervene without causing a WWIII? Thoughts?
Thank you. I feel upset by what you're saying, but I know it comes after careful analysis of information. Has there been a more depressing time? I have asked that of myself during so many events since 2016. My answer is no.
Heard today that a delegation from the Western nations went to the Middle East oil oil cartel and asked them for an increase in the quota and got rebuffed. You will recall that we had asked them for an increase in the production quota a couple of times recently, well before the Ukraine thing heated up. Fact is, western domestic economic recovery was already outstripping available oil supplies back then.
The US and Western European nations are already dipping into their Strategic Reserves to cover the shortfall. The Arabs knew this of course and yet they refused. I think that Arab refusal is ominous. If the Russian supply shuts down and the Arabs don't step up, chaos will reign in the oil markets. It will be 1973 all over again but this time it could be worse. The Arabs are our trading partners but they are not our friends. MBS is particularly hostile to the West. In fact he looks to me like a Putin/Trump wannabe, but with more brains.
I doubt if Western Europe wants to stand by and watch the Russian army slaughter tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians. It seems to me that NATO would be justified in launching massive airstrikes against the Russian forces laying siege to Kyiv and other Ukrainian towns. Back in the 1990s, NATO launched a series of airstrikes that crippled Serbian military units bent on murdering Bosnian civilians, chiefly Muslims. Who is Russia to complain to if the combined air arms of Poland, Germany, the United States and other NATO allies treat this humanitarian disaster for what it is, the last gasp of a sclerotic dictatorship driven by a madman's self-indulgent attempt to glorify himself. This is intolerable for any civilization to put up with; and the world should put Vladimir Putin on notice that his reign of terror is over and done with. Henceforth, the nations of the world should state in unequivocal terms that they will deal only with Putin's successor. It is clear that the carnage will cease only when Putin, and those loyal to him, are immobilized. It should also be made clear that those who assist Putin will be prosecuted before the International Court of Criminal Justice to answer for war crimes for which they likely may be charged at some point in the future. As for Putin himself, I would expect that his enemies within Russia have already planned a future for him that does not include Putin appearing as a defendant in an international criminal court anytime soon. But, Russians deal with their own, in their own particular ways.
This is not the Middle East, where there are thugs aplenty, but too many competing groups of militants and bad actors to effectively deal with. Vladimir Putin, and his thuggish associates have no claim on the tolerance and respect of the rest of the world. The United Nations General Assembly responded to a similar outcry against North Korean aggression in June 1950 when the United States sponsored a resolution approved by the General Assembly to respond to the North Korean invasion of South Korea, using what was then called a Uniting For Peace general resolution authorizing members of the United Nations to contribute military forces, then under the leadership of the United States, to respond to the invasion. At that time, the Soviet Union was boycotting the United Nations Security Council because the UN would not accept the credentials of delegates of the countries that the Red Army then occupied as those countries' legitimate representatives. But, we won't see the Russians making the same mistake twice. For many, this is ancient history; but now, we see a similar situation arising. As lawyers and philosophers would say, it is a distinction without a difference that the countries of the world are uniting against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, using the weapons of economics and trade relations against Putin's criminal regime. The effect is the same, to show the Russian people that Russia will not be permitted to succeed in this effort. Economic coercion can have the same effect as a military campaign; it just takes longer to accomplish. Right now, time is of the essence and knocking back Putin's army back on its heels. Blanketing his troops and armored formations with Tomahawk missiles and precision airstrikes would seem to be the weapons of choice. Putting Ukrainian lives further at risk as collateral damage to Putin's ambitions is not an option worthy of consideration. If Putin insists on escalating the level of violence against Ukraine and its population, that certainly justifies an appropriate response; but the time to do it is now, before mass casualties begin to accumulate, and the world has yet another horror story to remember and commemorate..
If you are correct and what you posit makes a lot of sense given historic Russian doctrine this is not going to end up being an act by criminals. It will be a world class case of terrorism by a sovereign power on the helpless men , women and children of a sovereign nation. Thus, I would suggest Russia be designated as a terrorist nation and Putin a war criminal to boot.
Thanks for the cogent analysis. Makes a lot of sense if you don't have to worry about air security and having all those clustered vehicles hit from attack aircraft. Unfortunately, I also believe what you predict about civilian casualties is also dead on pardon the ugly pun. Putin wants to terrorize the Ukrainians and bludgeon them into submission. His army and air force practiced on Aleppo with barrel bombs so he is simply now going to do it all over again.
After the bloodletting there is going to be a Ukrainian resistance. How large and how effective will depend upon how many weapons they can secrete away and long the occupying Russians will take being knifed in the back on patrol or having their command posts blown to bits. It is then we are going to see Putin's real rage. For those who haven't heard of it look up Lidice and what happened in occupied Czechoslovakia under the Nazis and SS in WWII.
Once his occupation begins it will be time for the West, NATO , the EU and UN to ratchet up sanctions and embargoes to 11 and hold them in place until they destabilize Russia and Putin. When you are an outlaw nation the law abiding nations must do whatever is necessary to bring you and those who aided you to justice.
Thank you, Lucian, for this analysis. It answers a lot of questions. (This is what I don't get from the news outlets.)
Humanity will not sit and watch slaughter. Syria was a civil war and there was little anyone could do. This is different, its premeditated murder of an innocent population. If Russia is allowed to destroy Ukraine then all of us become war criminals. NATO must act if only through proxies. Give the Ukraine resistance rockets and mortars. This is the time for Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk to donate thirty billion dollars for Ukraine's weapons. Solicit a million mercenaries and adventurers, keep Russia in a long protracted war. From the start there should be a concentrated effort to locate Putin and his staff and kill them. The world must make this war expensive and brutal for Russia, to stop them and discourage any other people who dream of military conquest.
I hope you are right but history does not support your belief. I fear in particular that the Western world is more concerned about loosing their creature comforts than about the suffering of even a nation of millions. The saying that ends with, "and then they came for me" comes to mind.
Thank you. This is far more useful than watching anything on Tv.
A superb analysis, Lucian, and terrifying for the poor people of Kyiv.
Wow!! Genius Lucien!!
Excellent assessment and unfortunately you are probably predicting the future horror accurately.
Lucian, I've been reading you for free, but I signed up today. I'm a retiree so money is scarce. But you told me today exactly what I wanted to know, and having read about your background, I knew you were basing your projections on experience and your studies. In fear and trepidation, I look forward to more of your insights. I figure out our military already knows what you know, and I hope our Administration does not feel like their hands are completely tied. Somehow, there must be a way to intervene without causing a WWIII? Thoughts?
Absolutely horrible. Thank you for this analysis, Lucian. It makes me want to see the US take out every one of Putin‘s lairs.
Thank you Lucian. I hope this eventually leads to the overthrow of Putin.
I look forward to your insights - better than any news channel.
Thank you. I feel upset by what you're saying, but I know it comes after careful analysis of information. Has there been a more depressing time? I have asked that of myself during so many events since 2016. My answer is no.
World War II.
And Vietnam
A little off-topic so i will make it short:
Heard today that a delegation from the Western nations went to the Middle East oil oil cartel and asked them for an increase in the quota and got rebuffed. You will recall that we had asked them for an increase in the production quota a couple of times recently, well before the Ukraine thing heated up. Fact is, western domestic economic recovery was already outstripping available oil supplies back then.
The US and Western European nations are already dipping into their Strategic Reserves to cover the shortfall. The Arabs knew this of course and yet they refused. I think that Arab refusal is ominous. If the Russian supply shuts down and the Arabs don't step up, chaos will reign in the oil markets. It will be 1973 all over again but this time it could be worse. The Arabs are our trading partners but they are not our friends. MBS is particularly hostile to the West. In fact he looks to me like a Putin/Trump wannabe, but with more brains.
Went over to a Ukrainian community center in North Port, FL on the SW coast near my home.
Made a donation to their cause.
❤
Thank you. You’ve provided such exhaustive research and have presented it with real clarity. That said…I am terrified…still!
Moreso...
I doubt if Western Europe wants to stand by and watch the Russian army slaughter tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians. It seems to me that NATO would be justified in launching massive airstrikes against the Russian forces laying siege to Kyiv and other Ukrainian towns. Back in the 1990s, NATO launched a series of airstrikes that crippled Serbian military units bent on murdering Bosnian civilians, chiefly Muslims. Who is Russia to complain to if the combined air arms of Poland, Germany, the United States and other NATO allies treat this humanitarian disaster for what it is, the last gasp of a sclerotic dictatorship driven by a madman's self-indulgent attempt to glorify himself. This is intolerable for any civilization to put up with; and the world should put Vladimir Putin on notice that his reign of terror is over and done with. Henceforth, the nations of the world should state in unequivocal terms that they will deal only with Putin's successor. It is clear that the carnage will cease only when Putin, and those loyal to him, are immobilized. It should also be made clear that those who assist Putin will be prosecuted before the International Court of Criminal Justice to answer for war crimes for which they likely may be charged at some point in the future. As for Putin himself, I would expect that his enemies within Russia have already planned a future for him that does not include Putin appearing as a defendant in an international criminal court anytime soon. But, Russians deal with their own, in their own particular ways.
This is not the Middle East, where there are thugs aplenty, but too many competing groups of militants and bad actors to effectively deal with. Vladimir Putin, and his thuggish associates have no claim on the tolerance and respect of the rest of the world. The United Nations General Assembly responded to a similar outcry against North Korean aggression in June 1950 when the United States sponsored a resolution approved by the General Assembly to respond to the North Korean invasion of South Korea, using what was then called a Uniting For Peace general resolution authorizing members of the United Nations to contribute military forces, then under the leadership of the United States, to respond to the invasion. At that time, the Soviet Union was boycotting the United Nations Security Council because the UN would not accept the credentials of delegates of the countries that the Red Army then occupied as those countries' legitimate representatives. But, we won't see the Russians making the same mistake twice. For many, this is ancient history; but now, we see a similar situation arising. As lawyers and philosophers would say, it is a distinction without a difference that the countries of the world are uniting against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, using the weapons of economics and trade relations against Putin's criminal regime. The effect is the same, to show the Russian people that Russia will not be permitted to succeed in this effort. Economic coercion can have the same effect as a military campaign; it just takes longer to accomplish. Right now, time is of the essence and knocking back Putin's army back on its heels. Blanketing his troops and armored formations with Tomahawk missiles and precision airstrikes would seem to be the weapons of choice. Putting Ukrainian lives further at risk as collateral damage to Putin's ambitions is not an option worthy of consideration. If Putin insists on escalating the level of violence against Ukraine and its population, that certainly justifies an appropriate response; but the time to do it is now, before mass casualties begin to accumulate, and the world has yet another horror story to remember and commemorate..