Who wins and who loses a war hinges on many factors: Who is best motivated? Whose objective is the most clearly defined? Who has the best weapons? Who has the most weapons? Who can communicate the best on the battlefield? Who has the best intelligence on the enemy? Who is best prepared? Who can resupply forces at the front most readily and efficiently? Who controls the skies? Who is tactically and strategically most flexible? Whose army is best trained? Whose army is best led?
If history means anything, then "Citizen Soldiers" can be very, very dangerous to a professional army. Here it is: It was the guys with whom we went to high school and college who faced Nazi machine gunners on Omaha Beach. It was that dopy kid down the block who got killed in Guadalcanal but saved four others in the action. It was the 2nd string halfback who ran the satchel charges into the Japanese bunker on Iwo Jima. And, as I heard them say aboard the Enola Gay a few days ago, "We were just ordinary citizens, really, and all we really cared about was ending the war and getting home." The Nazis were surprised and lost. The Japanese were brutal and tough and they lost. Now, it's Russians facing a bunch of Citizen Soldiers who, no surprise here, don't want Russians taking their country away from them. This war will likely end in real estate partitions with the perception that the Russian were beaten. It's looking this way.
Winning against Japan ( just re-read Winds of War and War and Remembrance) wasn't because of our citizen soldiers- if you think that the Japanese kamakazi's and the rest weren't deeply committed to their country's success -that would be wrong. What Lucien so perfectly illustrated was that Putin was not able to rouse the fervent passion to protect the mother country and give real purpose to risking life and limb. That is what creates the super heroic acts of self-sacrifice and wins the battles.
Jo: Your example of the kamakazis makes intellectual sense. However, "Blossoms in the Wind" tells a different story and---as far as I know---the ONLY story ever written about the kasmakazis that reveals the truth. These guys were NOT committed; they were forced by higher ups and peer pressure. However, as you put it the "rest" were committed, but unlike the Americans, they were a professional military and by the time the Americans faced them in Guadalcanal, Tarawa, New Britain and other places, they were as battle-hardened as an army can become... and yet... American teenage boys---for the most part---defeated them. Same in Europe against the Nazis.
Yes I am familiar with the true story- I just threw that in as an extreme example. Many of the battles hinged on luck especially Midway.. which changed the direction of the war in the pacific... I still contend that the homogeneous nature of the Japanese and their long history of a sense of commitment to their long history of superiority and "honor" made them fierce. I think perhaps we Americans tend to romanticize parts we played in the winning of the war. All those movies from the 50's and 60's.. Where we really rocked was in the creation of new technology that enabled landing craft and tanks to travel over terrain that they hadn't been able to before and of course radar and sonar--the atom bomb was obviously what ultimately signaled the surrender of Japan..
You may be right and we may tend to romanticize things now, 77 years after the fact. But having trudged through Iwo Jima's black sand, climbed Mt. Suribachi, and walked the length of the island in stifling heat, one can only imagine what it must've been like. The reality was/is different than the John Wayne version of things. There was not a thing romantic or nostalgic about what I saw there. This island was covered in American blood, and a lot of it. The ghosts are still there and you can feel them. Of the almost 7,000 Americans killed, most were between 18-20 years old. The grim nature of the place erases any notion of glory or romance. I think Stephen Ambrose had it right all along...
My father was a physician and was a Captain in the army and stationed in New Guinea during the war. I heard plenty of stories from him. They were in the jungle setting up the first MASH units in the rain forest... sounds like you profited from visiting the sites of those gruesome battles...
"Victory Day parade in Moscow. There was Putin looking like somebody had just run over his favorite dog, surrounded by a cast of generals and admirals who looked like they had been rolled out of a wax museum and positioned around him like flesh-colored statues."
Wars leave survivors with pain and suffering that continues long after the last shot is fired. A very old man told me that some things we do are so so wrong, so terrible, so wasteful, that we can do them every other generation. It takes that long to dull the pain. It will take a very long time for Russians and Ukrainians to get past this one.
Putin has been trying to infiltrate Ukraine through political means for many years.. remember Paul Manafort was instrumental in getting a Putin puppet elected as President of Ukraine until he was de-throned .. this invasion probably would have happened when Trump was in power had it not been for the pandemic.. Putin was paving the way grooming Trump..my fear is that this war will never really go away until Putin does..
His future is grim. Frankly I wonder if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was in part motivated by a sense that the walls are closing in. Well, even if they weren’t back then, things are looking bleaker all the time now. That crumb has created an entire nation of mafia corruption. He deserves whatever he gets.
Putin feels he has to stay relevant on the world stage and restore Russia to its “USSR “glory”. The economy sucks ( he And the oligarchs funneling money offshore while the people suffer and struggle. So he offers them a sense of national pride/ importance. I don’t think he ever thought this would unravel this way- he planned on the Ukrainians rolling over. Oligarchs are NOT happy. Lots of talk about “removing” him..😉
Somewhere in Russia there is a person who is respected if grudgingly who may already, perhaps right after the sad pathetic parade in Moscow who whispered to Mr. Putin: "This can't go on, it has to stop." Putin probably just ignored it. The west can manufacture a million rockets, drones, and a lot more guns and bullets. Eventually Putin has to realize he is sending thousands of conscripts to pointless death. In June 2023 much of Ukraine might resemble Grozny in 2006. There will be no victory no glory, just a sad terrible roll back like from Afghanistan.
The absence of decision-empowered NCOs in the Russian Army is the reason so many of their senior officers — including generals — are being killed. In the Russian Army, lieutenants and captains are doing the job done in NATO armies by decision-empowered NCOs, the jobs of captains are being done by field-grade officers and the jobs of field-grade officers are being done by generals. That and the fact that the Russian generals don’t know the difference between a secure mobile phone and an insecure mobile phone means their higher ranks will continue to be culled by the Ukrainian forces.
In the short term counter fire artillery radar and smart artillery is going to give the Ukrainians a way to turn Russian artillery units into some of the same junk piles their tanks became. Next up some ground to air missiles to erase the Russian advantage in air power.
Hate to be fatalistic but the Russians are going to have to bleed and die a lot more before Putin decides to pull back. That means a lot more brave Ukrainians will also die to save their nation. That seems the way it is always.
Morale and motivation. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence and for the existence of their country. Russians are fighting because they're told to.
I can't help but think of the Americans of the Revolutionary War, the Viet Cong, the Afghani freedom fighters. All prevailed against overwhelming odds.
The war will be over by the end of 2022, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence said. Major general Kyrylo Budanov claimed Moscow was suffering heavy casualties and predicted a turning point by mid-August – adding his belief that “most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year”.
It is well worth reading the articles through to the end. In one of those two articles, the journalist mentions that a Russian offensive which stalled, followed by retreat, is the condition that foreshadowed the end of the attack on Kiev.
What is such a gift is to have the combination of a great writer who also has that trenchant military background to gives us the inside view of what is really going down AND why. This sheds a lot of needed light on the David and Goliath day to day battles. Thanks Lucien..you earned your paycheck (again..) :)
A couple of interesting articles on the same topic; first on WAPO, that I will include here as freebie "Gift" link that as a subscriber I am entitled to, within decent limits: https://wapo.st/3FFQTOg
If history means anything, then "Citizen Soldiers" can be very, very dangerous to a professional army. Here it is: It was the guys with whom we went to high school and college who faced Nazi machine gunners on Omaha Beach. It was that dopy kid down the block who got killed in Guadalcanal but saved four others in the action. It was the 2nd string halfback who ran the satchel charges into the Japanese bunker on Iwo Jima. And, as I heard them say aboard the Enola Gay a few days ago, "We were just ordinary citizens, really, and all we really cared about was ending the war and getting home." The Nazis were surprised and lost. The Japanese were brutal and tough and they lost. Now, it's Russians facing a bunch of Citizen Soldiers who, no surprise here, don't want Russians taking their country away from them. This war will likely end in real estate partitions with the perception that the Russian were beaten. It's looking this way.
Beaten Russian armies in the past have fostered revolutions, in which case Putin had better watch his ass, the schmuck.
Winning against Japan ( just re-read Winds of War and War and Remembrance) wasn't because of our citizen soldiers- if you think that the Japanese kamakazi's and the rest weren't deeply committed to their country's success -that would be wrong. What Lucien so perfectly illustrated was that Putin was not able to rouse the fervent passion to protect the mother country and give real purpose to risking life and limb. That is what creates the super heroic acts of self-sacrifice and wins the battles.
Jo: Your example of the kamakazis makes intellectual sense. However, "Blossoms in the Wind" tells a different story and---as far as I know---the ONLY story ever written about the kasmakazis that reveals the truth. These guys were NOT committed; they were forced by higher ups and peer pressure. However, as you put it the "rest" were committed, but unlike the Americans, they were a professional military and by the time the Americans faced them in Guadalcanal, Tarawa, New Britain and other places, they were as battle-hardened as an army can become... and yet... American teenage boys---for the most part---defeated them. Same in Europe against the Nazis.
Yes I am familiar with the true story- I just threw that in as an extreme example. Many of the battles hinged on luck especially Midway.. which changed the direction of the war in the pacific... I still contend that the homogeneous nature of the Japanese and their long history of a sense of commitment to their long history of superiority and "honor" made them fierce. I think perhaps we Americans tend to romanticize parts we played in the winning of the war. All those movies from the 50's and 60's.. Where we really rocked was in the creation of new technology that enabled landing craft and tanks to travel over terrain that they hadn't been able to before and of course radar and sonar--the atom bomb was obviously what ultimately signaled the surrender of Japan..
You may be right and we may tend to romanticize things now, 77 years after the fact. But having trudged through Iwo Jima's black sand, climbed Mt. Suribachi, and walked the length of the island in stifling heat, one can only imagine what it must've been like. The reality was/is different than the John Wayne version of things. There was not a thing romantic or nostalgic about what I saw there. This island was covered in American blood, and a lot of it. The ghosts are still there and you can feel them. Of the almost 7,000 Americans killed, most were between 18-20 years old. The grim nature of the place erases any notion of glory or romance. I think Stephen Ambrose had it right all along...
My father was a physician and was a Captain in the army and stationed in New Guinea during the war. I heard plenty of stories from him. They were in the jungle setting up the first MASH units in the rain forest... sounds like you profited from visiting the sites of those gruesome battles...
"Victory Day parade in Moscow. There was Putin looking like somebody had just run over his favorite dog, surrounded by a cast of generals and admirals who looked like they had been rolled out of a wax museum and positioned around him like flesh-colored statues."
BRILLIANT-- ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT!!!
Wars leave survivors with pain and suffering that continues long after the last shot is fired. A very old man told me that some things we do are so so wrong, so terrible, so wasteful, that we can do them every other generation. It takes that long to dull the pain. It will take a very long time for Russians and Ukrainians to get past this one.
Putin has been trying to infiltrate Ukraine through political means for many years.. remember Paul Manafort was instrumental in getting a Putin puppet elected as President of Ukraine until he was de-throned .. this invasion probably would have happened when Trump was in power had it not been for the pandemic.. Putin was paving the way grooming Trump..my fear is that this war will never really go away until Putin does..
His future is grim. Frankly I wonder if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was in part motivated by a sense that the walls are closing in. Well, even if they weren’t back then, things are looking bleaker all the time now. That crumb has created an entire nation of mafia corruption. He deserves whatever he gets.
Putin feels he has to stay relevant on the world stage and restore Russia to its “USSR “glory”. The economy sucks ( he And the oligarchs funneling money offshore while the people suffer and struggle. So he offers them a sense of national pride/ importance. I don’t think he ever thought this would unravel this way- he planned on the Ukrainians rolling over. Oligarchs are NOT happy. Lots of talk about “removing” him..😉
Yes to all of it. And on top of everything, Daily Mail UK reports he has a blood cancer, plus recent pelvis or hip surgery, and maybe Parkinson’s.
All of his actions now scream of desperation. That makes him very dangerous.
Somewhere in Russia there is a person who is respected if grudgingly who may already, perhaps right after the sad pathetic parade in Moscow who whispered to Mr. Putin: "This can't go on, it has to stop." Putin probably just ignored it. The west can manufacture a million rockets, drones, and a lot more guns and bullets. Eventually Putin has to realize he is sending thousands of conscripts to pointless death. In June 2023 much of Ukraine might resemble Grozny in 2006. There will be no victory no glory, just a sad terrible roll back like from Afghanistan.
The absence of decision-empowered NCOs in the Russian Army is the reason so many of their senior officers — including generals — are being killed. In the Russian Army, lieutenants and captains are doing the job done in NATO armies by decision-empowered NCOs, the jobs of captains are being done by field-grade officers and the jobs of field-grade officers are being done by generals. That and the fact that the Russian generals don’t know the difference between a secure mobile phone and an insecure mobile phone means their higher ranks will continue to be culled by the Ukrainian forces.
Excellent analysis, thanks. I can't tell you how wonderful these "briefings" are. Great to hear the Ukes are wiping Putin's eye.
And hopefully, eventually kicking his ass.
Is this Putin’s Vietnam? Me thinks it is.
But, there is no free press and a Walter Cronkite to lose.
What the hell is this? Please correct whatever glitch you are having before commenting again.
In the short term counter fire artillery radar and smart artillery is going to give the Ukrainians a way to turn Russian artillery units into some of the same junk piles their tanks became. Next up some ground to air missiles to erase the Russian advantage in air power.
Hate to be fatalistic but the Russians are going to have to bleed and die a lot more before Putin decides to pull back. That means a lot more brave Ukrainians will also die to save their nation. That seems the way it is always.
Maybe Putin will just "declare victory and leave." Didn't somebody suggest we do that in Vietnam?
Morale and motivation. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence and for the existence of their country. Russians are fighting because they're told to.
I can't help but think of the Americans of the Revolutionary War, the Viet Cong, the Afghani freedom fighters. All prevailed against overwhelming odds.
From CNN:
The war will be over by the end of 2022, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence said. Major general Kyrylo Budanov claimed Moscow was suffering heavy casualties and predicted a turning point by mid-August – adding his belief that “most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year”.
Very interesting news about the war.
Russian offensive attempt at crossing a Donbas river
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10808475/Ukraine-war-Russia-suffers-heavy-losses-failed-Donbas-river-crossing.html
Putin has suspended his military Chief of Staff (the commander of Russia’s Army), and he fired multiple generals and commanders
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10809829/Ukraine-war-Putin-purges-army-brass-Gerasimov-suspended.html
It is well worth reading the articles through to the end. In one of those two articles, the journalist mentions that a Russian offensive which stalled, followed by retreat, is the condition that foreshadowed the end of the attack on Kiev.
Great coverage. Wonderful read. Thank you.
As Gary Cooper would say, "Yep!"
What is such a gift is to have the combination of a great writer who also has that trenchant military background to gives us the inside view of what is really going down AND why. This sheds a lot of needed light on the David and Goliath day to day battles. Thanks Lucien..you earned your paycheck (again..) :)
A couple of interesting articles on the same topic; first on WAPO, that I will include here as freebie "Gift" link that as a subscriber I am entitled to, within decent limits: https://wapo.st/3FFQTOg
and Chris Hedges on The Salon on the wisdom (or not) of pursuing a new concept of "victory" in Ukraine by the USA (i.e., "let's you and him fight!") https://www.salon.com/2022/05/03/russia-us-ukraine-age-of-self-delusion/