Who wins and who loses a war hinges on many factors: Who is best motivated? Whose objective is the most clearly defined? Who has the best weapons? Who has the most weapons? Who can communicate the best on the battlefield? Who has the best intelligence on the enemy? Who is best prepared? Who can resupply forces at the front most readily and efficiently? Who controls the skies? Who is tactically and strategically most flexible? Whose army is best trained? Whose army is best led?
If history means anything, then "Citizen Soldiers" can be very, very dangerous to a professional army. Here it is: It was the guys with whom we went to high school and college who faced Nazi machine gunners on Omaha Beach. It was that dopy kid down the block who got killed in Guadalcanal but saved four others in the action. It was the 2nd string halfback who ran the satchel charges into the Japanese bunker on Iwo Jima. And, as I heard them say aboard the Enola Gay a few days ago, "We were just ordinary citizens, really, and all we really cared about was ending the war and getting home." The Nazis were surprised and lost. The Japanese were brutal and tough and they lost. Now, it's Russians facing a bunch of Citizen Soldiers who, no surprise here, don't want Russians taking their country away from them. This war will likely end in real estate partitions with the perception that the Russian were beaten. It's looking this way.
"Victory Day parade in Moscow. There was Putin looking like somebody had just run over his favorite dog, surrounded by a cast of generals and admirals who looked like they had been rolled out of a wax museum and positioned around him like flesh-colored statues."
Wars leave survivors with pain and suffering that continues long after the last shot is fired. A very old man told me that some things we do are so so wrong, so terrible, so wasteful, that we can do them every other generation. It takes that long to dull the pain. It will take a very long time for Russians and Ukrainians to get past this one.
Somewhere in Russia there is a person who is respected if grudgingly who may already, perhaps right after the sad pathetic parade in Moscow who whispered to Mr. Putin: "This can't go on, it has to stop." Putin probably just ignored it. The west can manufacture a million rockets, drones, and a lot more guns and bullets. Eventually Putin has to realize he is sending thousands of conscripts to pointless death. In June 2023 much of Ukraine might resemble Grozny in 2006. There will be no victory no glory, just a sad terrible roll back like from Afghanistan.
The absence of decision-empowered NCOs in the Russian Army is the reason so many of their senior officers — including generals — are being killed. In the Russian Army, lieutenants and captains are doing the job done in NATO armies by decision-empowered NCOs, the jobs of captains are being done by field-grade officers and the jobs of field-grade officers are being done by generals. That and the fact that the Russian generals don’t know the difference between a secure mobile phone and an insecure mobile phone means their higher ranks will continue to be culled by the Ukrainian forces.
In the short term counter fire artillery radar and smart artillery is going to give the Ukrainians a way to turn Russian artillery units into some of the same junk piles their tanks became. Next up some ground to air missiles to erase the Russian advantage in air power.
Hate to be fatalistic but the Russians are going to have to bleed and die a lot more before Putin decides to pull back. That means a lot more brave Ukrainians will also die to save their nation. That seems the way it is always.
Morale and motivation. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence and for the existence of their country. Russians are fighting because they're told to.
I can't help but think of the Americans of the Revolutionary War, the Viet Cong, the Afghani freedom fighters. All prevailed against overwhelming odds.
The war will be over by the end of 2022, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence said. Major general Kyrylo Budanov claimed Moscow was suffering heavy casualties and predicted a turning point by mid-August – adding his belief that “most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year”.
It is well worth reading the articles through to the end. In one of those two articles, the journalist mentions that a Russian offensive which stalled, followed by retreat, is the condition that foreshadowed the end of the attack on Kiev.
What is such a gift is to have the combination of a great writer who also has that trenchant military background to gives us the inside view of what is really going down AND why. This sheds a lot of needed light on the David and Goliath day to day battles. Thanks Lucien..you earned your paycheck (again..) :)
A couple of interesting articles on the same topic; first on WAPO, that I will include here as freebie "Gift" link that as a subscriber I am entitled to, within decent limits: https://wapo.st/3FFQTOg
If history means anything, then "Citizen Soldiers" can be very, very dangerous to a professional army. Here it is: It was the guys with whom we went to high school and college who faced Nazi machine gunners on Omaha Beach. It was that dopy kid down the block who got killed in Guadalcanal but saved four others in the action. It was the 2nd string halfback who ran the satchel charges into the Japanese bunker on Iwo Jima. And, as I heard them say aboard the Enola Gay a few days ago, "We were just ordinary citizens, really, and all we really cared about was ending the war and getting home." The Nazis were surprised and lost. The Japanese were brutal and tough and they lost. Now, it's Russians facing a bunch of Citizen Soldiers who, no surprise here, don't want Russians taking their country away from them. This war will likely end in real estate partitions with the perception that the Russian were beaten. It's looking this way.
"Victory Day parade in Moscow. There was Putin looking like somebody had just run over his favorite dog, surrounded by a cast of generals and admirals who looked like they had been rolled out of a wax museum and positioned around him like flesh-colored statues."
BRILLIANT-- ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT!!!
Wars leave survivors with pain and suffering that continues long after the last shot is fired. A very old man told me that some things we do are so so wrong, so terrible, so wasteful, that we can do them every other generation. It takes that long to dull the pain. It will take a very long time for Russians and Ukrainians to get past this one.
Somewhere in Russia there is a person who is respected if grudgingly who may already, perhaps right after the sad pathetic parade in Moscow who whispered to Mr. Putin: "This can't go on, it has to stop." Putin probably just ignored it. The west can manufacture a million rockets, drones, and a lot more guns and bullets. Eventually Putin has to realize he is sending thousands of conscripts to pointless death. In June 2023 much of Ukraine might resemble Grozny in 2006. There will be no victory no glory, just a sad terrible roll back like from Afghanistan.
The absence of decision-empowered NCOs in the Russian Army is the reason so many of their senior officers — including generals — are being killed. In the Russian Army, lieutenants and captains are doing the job done in NATO armies by decision-empowered NCOs, the jobs of captains are being done by field-grade officers and the jobs of field-grade officers are being done by generals. That and the fact that the Russian generals don’t know the difference between a secure mobile phone and an insecure mobile phone means their higher ranks will continue to be culled by the Ukrainian forces.
Excellent analysis, thanks. I can't tell you how wonderful these "briefings" are. Great to hear the Ukes are wiping Putin's eye.
Is this Putin’s Vietnam? Me thinks it is.
What the hell is this? Please correct whatever glitch you are having before commenting again.
In the short term counter fire artillery radar and smart artillery is going to give the Ukrainians a way to turn Russian artillery units into some of the same junk piles their tanks became. Next up some ground to air missiles to erase the Russian advantage in air power.
Hate to be fatalistic but the Russians are going to have to bleed and die a lot more before Putin decides to pull back. That means a lot more brave Ukrainians will also die to save their nation. That seems the way it is always.
Morale and motivation. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence and for the existence of their country. Russians are fighting because they're told to.
I can't help but think of the Americans of the Revolutionary War, the Viet Cong, the Afghani freedom fighters. All prevailed against overwhelming odds.
From CNN:
The war will be over by the end of 2022, Ukraine’s head of military intelligence said. Major general Kyrylo Budanov claimed Moscow was suffering heavy casualties and predicted a turning point by mid-August – adding his belief that “most of the active combat actions will have finished by the end of this year”.
Very interesting news about the war.
Russian offensive attempt at crossing a Donbas river
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10808475/Ukraine-war-Russia-suffers-heavy-losses-failed-Donbas-river-crossing.html
Putin has suspended his military Chief of Staff (the commander of Russia’s Army), and he fired multiple generals and commanders
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10809829/Ukraine-war-Putin-purges-army-brass-Gerasimov-suspended.html
It is well worth reading the articles through to the end. In one of those two articles, the journalist mentions that a Russian offensive which stalled, followed by retreat, is the condition that foreshadowed the end of the attack on Kiev.
Great coverage. Wonderful read. Thank you.
As Gary Cooper would say, "Yep!"
What is such a gift is to have the combination of a great writer who also has that trenchant military background to gives us the inside view of what is really going down AND why. This sheds a lot of needed light on the David and Goliath day to day battles. Thanks Lucien..you earned your paycheck (again..) :)
A couple of interesting articles on the same topic; first on WAPO, that I will include here as freebie "Gift" link that as a subscriber I am entitled to, within decent limits: https://wapo.st/3FFQTOg
and Chris Hedges on The Salon on the wisdom (or not) of pursuing a new concept of "victory" in Ukraine by the USA (i.e., "let's you and him fight!") https://www.salon.com/2022/05/03/russia-us-ukraine-age-of-self-delusion/