Military experts, scholars at defense think tanks, and probably even Pentagon generals have puzzled over why the Russian war effort has gone so poorly since Russia attacked Ukraine more than year ago. Russia’s strategic mistakes and tactical losses began with its failure to take Kyiv in the early months of the war. In April of last year, the Russian army was forced to withdraw from the area around Kyiv with most of its units driven back into Russia itself. Russia’s military only briefly held Kharkiv province before being driven out by a Ukrainian offensive last September.
Wow, Lucian, this is fascinating information. You’ve given us a real education in how the tide of contemporary wars can turn thanks to technology (or the lack of it). I think maybe the Russians have been spending too much time creating social media bots to sow unrest in the U.S. (Too much focus on Hunter Biden’s laptop?) Your expertise in military matters is invaluable. Thanks.
There are so many reports of the corruption that is rife in Russia that one can say that Vladimir and his friends have stolen money that would have, could have been used to update their military hardware, their electronics and computers...but they like their million dollar dachas and yachts so much they forgot that a war costs money. Lots of money, and they're losing because they got so greedy that they didn't prepare properly for it.
So they throw bodies at the enemy and hope to overwhelm them. Russia can't win this war this way, and all I can think of is the Potemkin villages that were constructed to make Catherine the Great believe she had a prosperous, happy country.
"In politics and economics, a Potemkin Village is any construction (literal or figurative) whose sole purpose is to provide an external facade to a country that is faring poorly, making people believe that the country is faring better.”
Putin is falling for the deception, except that he is only deceiving himself and nobody else. I'm pretty convinced right now that if there isn't a military coup brewing it's only because Putin has destroyed whatever military there was by engaging in a war of attrition that he will lose.
I've seen reports of an insider or two saying he's gone insane. I think he'll sacrifice everything to make this disaster go away..but not himself. That will take outsiders to do.
Agree there is corruption in the Ru mil involving skimming and theft up and down the procurement chain.
In the US the corruption is less overt, the normalization of outrageous cost over runs and delivery dates calendar years to a full generation (in mil parlance) behind schedule. Has a cascading effect all across and up and down the mil.
FYI, there are plenty of inexpensive commercial positioning units that simultaneously use more than one of the 5 GNSS positioning systems (US GPS, Russia's GLONASS, EU's GALILEO, Japan's QZSS, and China's BEIDOU). I regularly receive GPS+GLONASS satellites while doing precision positioning in the northeast US with an off-the shelf receiver costing less than $1,000 USD. Presumably Russia could do the same in Ukraine to supplement their inadequate constellation.
If you have sufficient operating satellites from any combination of systems in view, the uncorrected absolute accuracy of GNSS positioning is on the order of 5-10 meters. With enhancement the accuracy can get down to centimeters.
Hopefully Putin's ability to get his hands on mass quantities of western tech continues to be limited. It doesn't hurt that he only gets a good look with the satellites every week or two. If I were the Ukranian commanders I might track that one optical bird and plan troop movements for shortly after overflights.
It appears that the only thing they’re good at is destroying civilian targets. I’m thinking that the only way this war will end is a putsch by the Russian generals.
Indeed I am. What would be worse is if China has agreed to provide the same role as the US plays for Ukraine by providing satellite surveillance to Russia. That would qualify as non lethal support but perhaps a game changer.
Its a proxy war with the US and China doesn't want in, but they share a very long border with Russia. Well at least Russia will never threaten to join NATO.
Paradoxically enough, or ironically enough, it's better that way! --- if Russia is going to indulge, or bend the knee to Putin, and there must be an invasion to counter, better that he is isolated and rendered very incompetent as a military commander, as opposed to focused and able to organize a more strategically sound approach to invading Ukraine, right?
I think even then the Ukrainian resistance would be formidable and full of creative tactics to hold them off, and continue with sabotage and guerrilla rebellion even if Russia temporarily seized much more territory and installed a puppet government.
But this way we might realistically even look for a major, successful counter-offensive by Ukraine in the next 4 to 6 weeks. Almost NO ONE predicted an outcome like we are seeing now, that's for sure.
Btw the Tennessee House of Reps has been televised live on CNN at about 7:08 Central Time, it's astonishing, there appears to be a kind of "sit down protest" with hundreds of protesters chanting, be sure to check out the coverage. Looks like the 1960s all over again.
Apparently the expelled reps (both black, the white woman survived by one vote from expulsion) can be reappointed to their seats by a Metro Council of some kind, I am still learning the details. Or they can run to "replace themselves" and if they win, can't be expelled for the same prior protest, at least.
I've been able to listen to parts of what each of the 3 legislators had to say. Powerful commentary from each, some of it fiery preaching reminding everyone that this shameful action is being taken during Easter Week, a time when Christians celebrate the revival of the crucified Christ. The inescapable fact that a majority of Tennessee House members chose to expel two black legislators and not the white, female legislator says everything you need to know.
Throughout, you could hear loud chanting from protesters in the rotunda and outside, appearing to be majority young white people. What I saw, also, was a "lie down protest". Too bad those lying down didn't think to splash themselves with red paint.
You can bet that both of the expelled black legislators will be back one way or another.
I took four Black Studies/Afro-American history courses at the U. of Minnesota, Racism: Psychological and Social Consequences for Black Americans (taught by a local psychologist, who had literally seen a KKK cross-burning in his youth, in southern Illinois, his discussion about that made a profound impression on the whole class, I think), a history course in two parts, first from circa 15th Century slave trade and rice plantations in the Azores and expanding South and West into the Caribbean, and South America (majority of the Atlantic Slave Trade went to Brazil, and elsewhere in S.A), on to the eve of the Civil War; the second part was from the U.S. Civil War, through Reconstruction, temporary "freedom" before rise of Jim Crow legal apartheid, on through the radical 1920s and 30s, to the Civil Rights movement, and finishing with the 1960. , (that's of course just the highlights, or lowlights) The fourth course, Caribbean History.
So all that, along with other observations, prepares me to expect some of the political theater aspects we saw in the Tennessee House of Reps today, not that they are "phony" in any way whatsoever, no, they're just deploying the available lessons of "how to protest and win." Very effectively.
Some impressive rhetorical explanations and denunciations of the anti-democratic, racist farce. for instance. The Easter motif, that was irresistible since the parallels are right in front of everyone with eyes to see and ears to hear.
It was, it is, inspiring. "We will be back Monday!", that drew applause from the protesters. I guess next week could be even more interesting, given the legal remedies and electoral or appointment by the Metro Council responses available to the expelled legislators, not sure how that works.
The crowd of protesters was about as energized as any group I've seen since the McCarthy supporters, assorted leftists and others confronted Mayor Daley's thuggish "police riot" in August '68 in Chicago, when it comes to that...
Still amazed how much you can pack in one article while maintaining its readability across the broad spectrum of readers.
2weeks? WOW. Wonder if PRC is relaying ISR satt data to Ru mil?
USSR and now Ru military remain land-centric much like Great Britan was sea-centric. The same reason explains the balance found in the US mil, land, sea and air, g-e-o-g-r-a-p-h-y.
Another tell of lack of ISR satt info is Ru uses its rockets and missiles against known stationary targets (and can geo-locate them from open sources), hence lean heavily to civ targets. So, while it is true those targets constitute war crimes, they are also a tell of Ru can't locate any of weaponry the west sends into Uk cuz they are blind. There hasn't been a single report of Ru destroying inbound weapon and supply shipments. They do have some technical capabilities for locating Uk weaponry and troops near or on the frontlines.
Ru's own geography dictated its approach to logistics, rail-centric. Works inside Ru's borders, works against them once outside Ru. They don't have any positive experience to call upon re-supplying using trucks or aircraft. Doomed them in Af and they couldn't close the deal in Georgia. The 8+ year stalemate in the Donbas prior to the all out invasion was a result of same thick-headed approach. The invasion stalled for a multitude of reasons, fighting blind and piss-poor logistics being 2 of many.
One upside of Ru being land-centric is the brute force of an extraordinary number of artillery pieces and short-range rockets and missiles. Even though they have an advantage in the sky, they don't know how to leverage it in conjunction w/ground forces.
Air-burst/anti-personnel munitions=mandoline for humans. Henry Shrapnel wld be very proud.
Thanks for great report. I have seen other reports disparaging the Russian war efforts, but the war drags on, with no end in sight. And US and NATO countries keep sending more and better weapons systems without seeming to turn the tide. Am I being unrealistic about bringing this war to a successful end ? I remain hopeful and supportive, but what will it take to drive Putin out of Ukraine ?
History is going to see Putin as—in addition to being a monster—as a dunce. I guess his Ukraine disaster rests on his belief they'd win a three-day action. But in any circumstances in this world, how could he accept a less than world-class satellite system?
Check this out! Might explain how Putin entrapped himself into too much isolation to realize what the hell he needs to do militarily, not that he shouldn't just cease and desist forthwith, mind you...
That SOB will slip up sometime, somewhere. His paranoia will get him just so far until someone either takes him out or seizes him to be arrested. Bin Laden was located. Putin will be also.
True that! I haven't seen many mass media or blogs that didn't have the occasional typo, but at least it doesn't rise to the level of the infamous headline
Wow that's great information! This explains something I read about the beginning of the war. Basically the Ukrainians were caught by surprise when the war broke out and had a lot of their Air Force planes positioned like sitting ducks. When the planes didn't immediately get hit the Ukrainians moved them. 24 hours later there were Russian missiles strikes exactly where the planes HAD been. Vlad et al were blind - no "real time" surveillance.
Wow, Lucian, this is fascinating information. You’ve given us a real education in how the tide of contemporary wars can turn thanks to technology (or the lack of it). I think maybe the Russians have been spending too much time creating social media bots to sow unrest in the U.S. (Too much focus on Hunter Biden’s laptop?) Your expertise in military matters is invaluable. Thanks.
Exactly what I was thinking: all those resources poured into the Internet Research Agency rather than upgrading satellite and other technology!
There are so many reports of the corruption that is rife in Russia that one can say that Vladimir and his friends have stolen money that would have, could have been used to update their military hardware, their electronics and computers...but they like their million dollar dachas and yachts so much they forgot that a war costs money. Lots of money, and they're losing because they got so greedy that they didn't prepare properly for it.
So they throw bodies at the enemy and hope to overwhelm them. Russia can't win this war this way, and all I can think of is the Potemkin villages that were constructed to make Catherine the Great believe she had a prosperous, happy country.
"In politics and economics, a Potemkin Village is any construction (literal or figurative) whose sole purpose is to provide an external facade to a country that is faring poorly, making people believe that the country is faring better.”
Putin is falling for the deception, except that he is only deceiving himself and nobody else. I'm pretty convinced right now that if there isn't a military coup brewing it's only because Putin has destroyed whatever military there was by engaging in a war of attrition that he will lose.
I've seen reports of an insider or two saying he's gone insane. I think he'll sacrifice everything to make this disaster go away..but not himself. That will take outsiders to do.
It might come to that, yet. Let's hope so.
For a while, I thought you were talking about Trump. ☹️
Sorry, I didn't mean to mislead you.
Only 1 bad guy in charge of war at a time.
But we're still waiting on Jack Smith and Fani Willis!
Be of good cheer-all bad things come to those who deserve them...it's called karma.
Putin and Trump share the same clown car. They take turns driving.
Agree there is corruption in the Ru mil involving skimming and theft up and down the procurement chain.
In the US the corruption is less overt, the normalization of outrageous cost over runs and delivery dates calendar years to a full generation (in mil parlance) behind schedule. Has a cascading effect all across and up and down the mil.
I'm wondering if their trucks, tanks, satellites, and logistics don't work, what does that say about their nuclear weapons?
That could go either way
Probably not a good idea to put it to the test.
Maybe another topic for your writing? It's a good question.
FYI, there are plenty of inexpensive commercial positioning units that simultaneously use more than one of the 5 GNSS positioning systems (US GPS, Russia's GLONASS, EU's GALILEO, Japan's QZSS, and China's BEIDOU). I regularly receive GPS+GLONASS satellites while doing precision positioning in the northeast US with an off-the shelf receiver costing less than $1,000 USD. Presumably Russia could do the same in Ukraine to supplement their inadequate constellation.
If you have sufficient operating satellites from any combination of systems in view, the uncorrected absolute accuracy of GNSS positioning is on the order of 5-10 meters. With enhancement the accuracy can get down to centimeters.
Hopefully Putin's ability to get his hands on mass quantities of western tech continues to be limited. It doesn't hurt that he only gets a good look with the satellites every week or two. If I were the Ukranian commanders I might track that one optical bird and plan troop movements for shortly after overflights.
https://blog.bliley.com/the-differences-between-the-5-gnss-satellite-network-constellations
More good news! Have the Russians done anything right in this conflict?
It appears that the only thing they’re good at is destroying civilian targets. I’m thinking that the only way this war will end is a putsch by the Russian generals.
Perhaps the Chinese will sell them some spy balloons!
God forbid ! I know you are kidding
Indeed I am. What would be worse is if China has agreed to provide the same role as the US plays for Ukraine by providing satellite surveillance to Russia. That would qualify as non lethal support but perhaps a game changer.
Its a proxy war with the US and China doesn't want in, but they share a very long border with Russia. Well at least Russia will never threaten to join NATO.
www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/russian-defector-sheds-light-on-putin-paranoia-including-secret-train
^^^^^
A former "Putin insider" defects, escapes with wife and children, shares some fascinating details about
Putin's self-imposed isolation, paranoia, more.
Richard, I saw that article and it was truly fascinating. Putin is living in his own twisted reality.
Paradoxically enough, or ironically enough, it's better that way! --- if Russia is going to indulge, or bend the knee to Putin, and there must be an invasion to counter, better that he is isolated and rendered very incompetent as a military commander, as opposed to focused and able to organize a more strategically sound approach to invading Ukraine, right?
I think even then the Ukrainian resistance would be formidable and full of creative tactics to hold them off, and continue with sabotage and guerrilla rebellion even if Russia temporarily seized much more territory and installed a puppet government.
But this way we might realistically even look for a major, successful counter-offensive by Ukraine in the next 4 to 6 weeks. Almost NO ONE predicted an outcome like we are seeing now, that's for sure.
Thank you for the link.
Sure!
Btw the Tennessee House of Reps has been televised live on CNN at about 7:08 Central Time, it's astonishing, there appears to be a kind of "sit down protest" with hundreds of protesters chanting, be sure to check out the coverage. Looks like the 1960s all over again.
Apparently the expelled reps (both black, the white woman survived by one vote from expulsion) can be reappointed to their seats by a Metro Council of some kind, I am still learning the details. Or they can run to "replace themselves" and if they win, can't be expelled for the same prior protest, at least.
I've been able to listen to parts of what each of the 3 legislators had to say. Powerful commentary from each, some of it fiery preaching reminding everyone that this shameful action is being taken during Easter Week, a time when Christians celebrate the revival of the crucified Christ. The inescapable fact that a majority of Tennessee House members chose to expel two black legislators and not the white, female legislator says everything you need to know.
Throughout, you could hear loud chanting from protesters in the rotunda and outside, appearing to be majority young white people. What I saw, also, was a "lie down protest". Too bad those lying down didn't think to splash themselves with red paint.
You can bet that both of the expelled black legislators will be back one way or another.
Yes, saw that as well.
I took four Black Studies/Afro-American history courses at the U. of Minnesota, Racism: Psychological and Social Consequences for Black Americans (taught by a local psychologist, who had literally seen a KKK cross-burning in his youth, in southern Illinois, his discussion about that made a profound impression on the whole class, I think), a history course in two parts, first from circa 15th Century slave trade and rice plantations in the Azores and expanding South and West into the Caribbean, and South America (majority of the Atlantic Slave Trade went to Brazil, and elsewhere in S.A), on to the eve of the Civil War; the second part was from the U.S. Civil War, through Reconstruction, temporary "freedom" before rise of Jim Crow legal apartheid, on through the radical 1920s and 30s, to the Civil Rights movement, and finishing with the 1960. , (that's of course just the highlights, or lowlights) The fourth course, Caribbean History.
So all that, along with other observations, prepares me to expect some of the political theater aspects we saw in the Tennessee House of Reps today, not that they are "phony" in any way whatsoever, no, they're just deploying the available lessons of "how to protest and win." Very effectively.
Some impressive rhetorical explanations and denunciations of the anti-democratic, racist farce. for instance. The Easter motif, that was irresistible since the parallels are right in front of everyone with eyes to see and ears to hear.
It was, it is, inspiring. "We will be back Monday!", that drew applause from the protesters. I guess next week could be even more interesting, given the legal remedies and electoral or appointment by the Metro Council responses available to the expelled legislators, not sure how that works.
The crowd of protesters was about as energized as any group I've seen since the McCarthy supporters, assorted leftists and others confronted Mayor Daley's thuggish "police riot" in August '68 in Chicago, when it comes to that...
Still amazed how much you can pack in one article while maintaining its readability across the broad spectrum of readers.
2weeks? WOW. Wonder if PRC is relaying ISR satt data to Ru mil?
USSR and now Ru military remain land-centric much like Great Britan was sea-centric. The same reason explains the balance found in the US mil, land, sea and air, g-e-o-g-r-a-p-h-y.
Another tell of lack of ISR satt info is Ru uses its rockets and missiles against known stationary targets (and can geo-locate them from open sources), hence lean heavily to civ targets. So, while it is true those targets constitute war crimes, they are also a tell of Ru can't locate any of weaponry the west sends into Uk cuz they are blind. There hasn't been a single report of Ru destroying inbound weapon and supply shipments. They do have some technical capabilities for locating Uk weaponry and troops near or on the frontlines.
Ru's own geography dictated its approach to logistics, rail-centric. Works inside Ru's borders, works against them once outside Ru. They don't have any positive experience to call upon re-supplying using trucks or aircraft. Doomed them in Af and they couldn't close the deal in Georgia. The 8+ year stalemate in the Donbas prior to the all out invasion was a result of same thick-headed approach. The invasion stalled for a multitude of reasons, fighting blind and piss-poor logistics being 2 of many.
One upside of Ru being land-centric is the brute force of an extraordinary number of artillery pieces and short-range rockets and missiles. Even though they have an advantage in the sky, they don't know how to leverage it in conjunction w/ground forces.
Air-burst/anti-personnel munitions=mandoline for humans. Henry Shrapnel wld be very proud.
Love it when you talk military.
Thanks, your analysis of the military situation is always lapidary. It keeps me with good info in my discussions with friends. You are the best!
Thanks for great report. I have seen other reports disparaging the Russian war efforts, but the war drags on, with no end in sight. And US and NATO countries keep sending more and better weapons systems without seeming to turn the tide. Am I being unrealistic about bringing this war to a successful end ? I remain hopeful and supportive, but what will it take to drive Putin out of Ukraine ?
History is going to see Putin as—in addition to being a monster—as a dunce. I guess his Ukraine disaster rests on his belief they'd win a three-day action. But in any circumstances in this world, how could he accept a less than world-class satellite system?
www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/russian-defector-sheds-light-on-putin-paranoia-including-secret-train
Check this out! Might explain how Putin entrapped himself into too much isolation to realize what the hell he needs to do militarily, not that he shouldn't just cease and desist forthwith, mind you...
The consequences of life in an "information vacuum.".His term seems to be perfectly descriptive.
That SOB will slip up sometime, somewhere. His paranoia will get him just so far until someone either takes him out or seizes him to be arrested. Bin Laden was located. Putin will be also.
OH!
Dear Lucian.. I'm thinking you meant "geo synchronous" .. Best, Bob
It came to me after posting. Corrected.
OK there's a "bean" where I think it must be "began" typo, too, I hate to nitpick writing this valuable and informative!
We call it "copy editing."
True that! I haven't seen many mass media or blogs that didn't have the occasional typo, but at least it doesn't rise to the level of the infamous headline
POLICE HELP DOG BITE VICTIM
(tongue-in-cheek) Occasional? Circa 37% of the global population are typos, blood that is.
Thanks for confirming what I've always suspected, Lucian. This is amazing detail.
From Potemkin village to Potemkin country... Or as John McCain put it, "Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country."
Never heard McCain's comment before but I love it!
Wow that's great information! This explains something I read about the beginning of the war. Basically the Ukrainians were caught by surprise when the war broke out and had a lot of their Air Force planes positioned like sitting ducks. When the planes didn't immediately get hit the Ukrainians moved them. 24 hours later there were Russian missiles strikes exactly where the planes HAD been. Vlad et al were blind - no "real time" surveillance.
Lucian, thank you for explaining the Russian technological failures in language that we non-military folks can easily understand.