I was marveling yesterday about how the Democratic Party managed to, in the space of just 24 hours, go from a state of anxious tissue twisting over the status of Joe Biden’s electability to near-universal unity over the candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris, who was said to have made more than one hundred phone calls from the Vice President’s residence at the Naval Observatory to party leaders after Biden stepped aside on Sunday. It occurred to me to wonder, would the Republican Party be able to pull off a similar mid-campaign switch if something untoward were to befall their similarly aging candidate for president?
From Timothy Snyder’s interesting piece on Vance, Tech bros, Putin, etc. “Trump’s candidacy is a mortality play. He wants to die in the White House. Whatever else he might say, or whatever else his followers might believe, this is the essential reality. Old-guy dictatorship involves funeral planning. When Trump says that he admires a Putin or a Xi, what he means is “that man will die in office and not in jail. . . “
Vance expected Trump to die conveniently soon. Trump expected he would wipe the floor with Biden. The scenario has changed. Vance is so extreme he maybe a liability for Trump now.
Yes. I liked the Snyder piece too. I have said that any Republican accepting the job of VP did not pay attention what happened to Pence. And, I also have been saying that the reason it took Trump so long to pick a VP is because he does not want a VP. He wants to be monarch not president. His heroes Putin and Kim Jung Un, and Xi Jinping do not have VPs. Mussolini did not, and neither did Hitler or Gaddafi, or Mobutu or Franco. I agree that Vance is a liability to Trump because of his positions.
The was going to tout Snyder’s substack too. It’s delicious that Trump got taken. He accepted Vance in exchange for the promise of $45 million a month that Musk has since reneged on. And now Trump is stuck holding JD.
I hadn’t thought through to what the result’s going to be with a loss. That’s going to get pretty hairy for Vance when Trump lays all the blame for a loss on him. I don’t have much sympathy for him. I do for his family, though.
Snyder is saying Vance should bail now. Can’t imagine how that would work. Would love to see it. Nixon won 49 states after Eagleton had to drop from the McGovern ticket. Don’t think that was the only reason, but it wasn’t a good look.
Looks like Elon knows they can’t win now and bailed on them. And I think Vance is too arrogant to bail. I also keep thinking about the Manchurian Candidate - hmmm, who would have benefitted the most if Trump died? Not the presumptive VP, right?
The MAGAs are going to have big problems with JD, his views against abortion, his claims that he's for the working man when he has been (like Mitt before him) a vulture capitalist preying upon the working man, the fact that he now claims to be a vegetarian, is married to an Indian women and whose kids have Indian names. It's not fair but he can't have it both ways. Felon Don gets a pass from his cult, JD won't. A great speech tonight from Joe, MAGA is running totally scared, the momentum has really shifted.
JD Vance is about as much a Catholic as Ivanka Trump is a Jew - their "conversions" were just political moves, and they are both too phony even to be ashamed of themselves.
I've been saying to our mutual friends and anyone else within earshot that abortion is the stealth issue in this campaign, and thank you for bringing it to the forefront, while the Party of Trump has an anti-women's rights person as his surrogate who views are going to get squisher and squisher as November approaches. I didn't realize he was a new convert of Catholicism. Having gone to Catholic schools for 12 years and learned about abortion in the 10 grade from the Sisters of the Immaculate Heart of Mary, hVance's views are beyond what I learned in Catholic school. And they--Felon/cheater/rapist/fraudster Trump and his spineless Yale "hillbilly" will go down as losers. Thank you as always, Luce, for your cogent columns. We miss you!
Great piece tonight, Lucian! JD should be running alright, but with his tail between his legs. Not only did he recently convert to Catholicism (probably did that to get on Leonard Leo’s side), but his real name is James Donald Bowman. Guess he felt that last name wasn’t white enough for him. So interesting that the two people in Trump’s campaign actually had the thought that something like Biden resigning could happen. Man, they must be shivering about that now! Kamala is Trump’s worst nightmare. Isn’t it great?
For all the white women, Shannon Watts is having a Zoom call to get behind Kamala. Black women did this after Biden’s announcement. They amassed $1.5 million for Kamala with over 40,000 attending. Black men also did something similar where 100,000 attended and raised over $2 million. So WHITE LADIES, it’s our turn to do something! Here’s the link: https://x.com/shannonrwatts/status/1816260207334547713?s=61&t=IVtTJxa5adsQjYd43euA5g
His birth father's name was Donald Bowman. That man left his wife and JD. When the wife remarried, JD (already known by those initials) changed the Donald to David and took his stepfather's surname. After that marriage broke up, JD, still young, adopted his grandparents' name, Vance.
"Wall podnuh, Robert E. Lee an' Jefferson Davis seemed a mite too much, so I dun settled on J.D. Vance. Thut way, my constituents kin figger the `J.D.' stans fer "Jefferson Davis"! Clever, ain't it? I 'splained it to Donald, n' he let out the only chuckle I evuh heard from him, whut's that tell ya?"
I read his book years ago. A waste of time and money that I regret. I think he wrote in his book that he took the surname of his maternal grandparents .
Great commentary. I will publish an article this evening after a hard couple of weeks dealing with my wife’s depression when her antidepressant failed a few weeks ago. It exhausted me. But, I’m back and I think you will like the article that I will share later tonight.
We have turned a corner. I liked President Biden’s speech tonight.
Thank you so much. It is very difficult because it is so irrational. Thankfully she begins a new type of therapy that has show great results and will last 10 weeks. I appreciate you kind words.
Like I say every day, there's 100 million women primed to vote and they ain't thinking gop. All we have to do is prove to them we got their backs. And Harris is much better at that than Biden.
My children have told me that I must become more frugal and pare down the plethora of reading material I subscribe to. This is in the “keeper” column. I can eliminate several other news sources (maybe) but LKT IV is THE SOURCE.
Another great column, Lucian. It’s such a pleasure to read your cogent thoughts on these dizzingly rapid-fire political events. Vance was chosen, I believe, because *Rump jr. insisted on it. They have, evidently, become friends. Perhaps they compare their elephant guns. Vance wasn’t vetted, apparently, and *Rump Sr. has been so cock-sure about beating Biden he thought he was just throwing more red meat to the deplorables, and went along with it. If he and the MAGA ‘brain’ trust aren’t already regretting his choice I think they will soon. The Democrats have so much oppo material on Vance he should be in a perpetual punch-drunk state within weeks if the Dems play the game properly. I realize that’s not a given, but any of Kamala’s VP possibilities, especially Mayor Pete, could destroy Vance in 10-minutes or less. (As much as I really like Pete he’s not the right VP choice at this moment.) I think we can expect the absolute worst from the GQP, but continued unity and positivity from the Dems while *Rump’s tired bellicose negativity becomes useless. But I wouldn’t count him out yet. There’s sure to be unending contrived drama for the media’s benefit since *Rump can’t stand being ignored. I just wonder what antics he will come up with to get the spotlight focussed back on him. Is it possible that there will be real policy discussions this time around? Because the MAGA Rethugs have none except for P2025, and I don’t think they will want to highlight those fascist ideas very much. All the more reason the Dems have to keep bringing them up. I hope they do.
Excellent comments, Richard!! And I agree with every word. I also think Mayor Pete would be a superb VP selection but the reality of it is, at least for now, he could be a liability. And I hope the Repugnant's love of P2025 is tossed out there for the Dem's to pounce on and trash as it deserves to be.
I subscribe to Trumpty-Dumpty’s emails, just so I can keep track of the lies being posted (Hold your friends close and your enemies closer.). Right now Trumpty is screaming bloody murder about the enormous amounts of money being donated to the Democrats in the last 48 hours (of course, with him it’s always about money) and how he ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY HAS TO GET MORE MONEY TO KEEP UP!!! Nothing about policy or programs - just “GIVE ME MONEY!” This message goes out to his minions six or seven times a day. He’s desperate.
Love this!! The problem for him is that they’ve already been milked dry. They know they’re just throwing money down a black hole. He doesn’t give a shit about his cult members. It’s all about the money and the votes, and then it’s “bye-bye” and on to the next rally.
Junior and Fredo reportedly insisted on the choice of Vance over the old man's first choice, that Midwestern moneybags who wouldn't have been a rival for media attention. (An alt rumor is that Peter Thiel, musk, and a lesser known Silicon Valley name negotiated the seat for the infamous $45 mil/month that musk is backing away from now.)
Here -- excerpted from an old article I wrote in 2020 is a basic FACT that Democrats ought to make more of -- and update to note also that there was NO DECLINE IN ABORTION under Trump's administration....
excerpt follows...
------------------------------------
Abortion has, in fact, been declining for over 40 years. From 1.3 million abortions in 1981 – the first year of Ronald Reagan’s presidency, the annual number of abortions reported by the Center for Disease Control fell to 623,471 in 2016 – the last full year of Barrack Obama’s presidency. This is despite a rise of more than 82 million in our population from 1980 to 2010.
It’s stunning to note that all of that decline in annual abortions – literally all of it – took place during the Democratic administrations of Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama. Here are the numbers: under the Reagan-Bush administrations from 1981 to 1992, abortions actually rose – by 50,000 per year – from 1.3 million in 1981 to 1.35 million in 1992. During Bill Clinton’s eight years in office – 1993-2000 – annual abortions fell from 1.33 million to 857,000 – a drop of well over 30%. In George W. Bush’s term – 2001 to 2008 – annual abortions barely edged down by about 3% – from 853,000 to 825,000. But in the Obama years – 2009 to 2016 – the slide resumed, with abortions dropping from 789,507 in 2001 to 623,471 in 2016 – a fall of well over 20%.
In short, the entire 50% drop in abortions from 1981 to 2016 took place under Democratic presidencies. On a net basis, abortions actually rose over these years when Republicans held the White House. During Reagan’s eight years in office, for example, at least 5.6 million more abortions were reported to the CDC than in the Obama years.
A correlation or causation between what party holds the WH with the number of abortions?
Johnny got an A on his Math test. It was a sunny day.
Johnny got a D on his English test. It was an overcast day.
Sunshine correlates with or is the causation of straight As.
Clouds correlate with or are the causation of Ds.
Abortion is associated with pregnancies, not with what political party is in the White House.
The only possible correlation is R-Presidents engage in more unprotected sex with girls/wimmin strangers than D-Presidents do, and with a frequency many times more than Wilt Chamberlain's peak numbers.
Abortion is not restricted to an invasive surgical procedure.
Mifepristone and Misoprostol have been around since the 1980s in Europe (France invented the former). US gurls and wimmin have been utilizing the 2pill treatment as a medical abortion ever since then although it was not legal in the US until 2000. They do not file a report with the CDC on the efficacy or its use. A Rx is not an indicator of use, No Agency knows the number of abortions in the US because it's unknowable. Reported doesn't =Actual.
Wilt's record of scoring 100pts in a game will be broken long before his sexual exploits will. Unless one of the R Presidents notched their numbers on the mantles of the WH fireplaces.
Vance is an intellectual poseur with blind ambition and a shifting moral footing. He’s even worse than Sarah Palin.
And that's hard to do!
I didn't think ANYBODY could be worse than Palin, but it seems I was wrong.
From Timothy Snyder’s interesting piece on Vance, Tech bros, Putin, etc. “Trump’s candidacy is a mortality play. He wants to die in the White House. Whatever else he might say, or whatever else his followers might believe, this is the essential reality. Old-guy dictatorship involves funeral planning. When Trump says that he admires a Putin or a Xi, what he means is “that man will die in office and not in jail. . . “
Vance expected Trump to die conveniently soon. Trump expected he would wipe the floor with Biden. The scenario has changed. Vance is so extreme he maybe a liability for Trump now.
Yes. I liked the Snyder piece too. I have said that any Republican accepting the job of VP did not pay attention what happened to Pence. And, I also have been saying that the reason it took Trump so long to pick a VP is because he does not want a VP. He wants to be monarch not president. His heroes Putin and Kim Jung Un, and Xi Jinping do not have VPs. Mussolini did not, and neither did Hitler or Gaddafi, or Mobutu or Franco. I agree that Vance is a liability to Trump because of his positions.
Oops...
The was going to tout Snyder’s substack too. It’s delicious that Trump got taken. He accepted Vance in exchange for the promise of $45 million a month that Musk has since reneged on. And now Trump is stuck holding JD.
I hadn’t thought through to what the result’s going to be with a loss. That’s going to get pretty hairy for Vance when Trump lays all the blame for a loss on him. I don’t have much sympathy for him. I do for his family, though.
Snyder is saying Vance should bail now. Can’t imagine how that would work. Would love to see it. Nixon won 49 states after Eagleton had to drop from the McGovern ticket. Don’t think that was the only reason, but it wasn’t a good look.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/veep-stakes?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
Looks like Elon knows they can’t win now and bailed on them. And I think Vance is too arrogant to bail. I also keep thinking about the Manchurian Candidate - hmmm, who would have benefitted the most if Trump died? Not the presumptive VP, right?
Nice to think Musk’s finances might be getting to the point where $45 million a month matters to him too.
The MAGAs are going to have big problems with JD, his views against abortion, his claims that he's for the working man when he has been (like Mitt before him) a vulture capitalist preying upon the working man, the fact that he now claims to be a vegetarian, is married to an Indian women and whose kids have Indian names. It's not fair but he can't have it both ways. Felon Don gets a pass from his cult, JD won't. A great speech tonight from Joe, MAGA is running totally scared, the momentum has really shifted.
Agree
JD Vance is about as much a Catholic as Ivanka Trump is a Jew - their "conversions" were just political moves, and they are both too phony even to be ashamed of themselves.
You are SO right, Donna!
I've been saying to our mutual friends and anyone else within earshot that abortion is the stealth issue in this campaign, and thank you for bringing it to the forefront, while the Party of Trump has an anti-women's rights person as his surrogate who views are going to get squisher and squisher as November approaches. I didn't realize he was a new convert of Catholicism. Having gone to Catholic schools for 12 years and learned about abortion in the 10 grade from the Sisters of the Immaculate Heart of Mary, hVance's views are beyond what I learned in Catholic school. And they--Felon/cheater/rapist/fraudster Trump and his spineless Yale "hillbilly" will go down as losers. Thank you as always, Luce, for your cogent columns. We miss you!
Vance is no "hillbilly" he's a "nobilly" I should know, I was born and reared in the heart of hillbilly country, West "By God" Virginia!!!
A Woman will win the election, and ALL women will be responsible!
Great piece tonight, Lucian! JD should be running alright, but with his tail between his legs. Not only did he recently convert to Catholicism (probably did that to get on Leonard Leo’s side), but his real name is James Donald Bowman. Guess he felt that last name wasn’t white enough for him. So interesting that the two people in Trump’s campaign actually had the thought that something like Biden resigning could happen. Man, they must be shivering about that now! Kamala is Trump’s worst nightmare. Isn’t it great?
For all the white women, Shannon Watts is having a Zoom call to get behind Kamala. Black women did this after Biden’s announcement. They amassed $1.5 million for Kamala with over 40,000 attending. Black men also did something similar where 100,000 attended and raised over $2 million. So WHITE LADIES, it’s our turn to do something! Here’s the link: https://x.com/shannonrwatts/status/1816260207334547713?s=61&t=IVtTJxa5adsQjYd43euA5g
I'll be on that call tonight credit card in hand!
James Donald Bowman? That ought to be ammunition for the Dems to use against him. Why would he have done that? I'd like to hear his answer.
His birth father's name was Donald Bowman. That man left his wife and JD. When the wife remarried, JD (already known by those initials) changed the Donald to David and took his stepfather's surname. After that marriage broke up, JD, still young, adopted his grandparents' name, Vance.
Thank you for that explanation. It sounds like the guy had something of an identity crisis going on.
I learned that only recently. Sympathy for Vance isn't my long suit, but that couldn't have been fun for a kid.
"Wall podnuh, Robert E. Lee an' Jefferson Davis seemed a mite too much, so I dun settled on J.D. Vance. Thut way, my constituents kin figger the `J.D.' stans fer "Jefferson Davis"! Clever, ain't it? I 'splained it to Donald, n' he let out the only chuckle I evuh heard from him, whut's that tell ya?"
I read his book years ago. A waste of time and money that I regret. I think he wrote in his book that he took the surname of his maternal grandparents .
Lucian,
Great commentary. I will publish an article this evening after a hard couple of weeks dealing with my wife’s depression when her antidepressant failed a few weeks ago. It exhausted me. But, I’m back and I think you will like the article that I will share later tonight.
We have turned a corner. I liked President Biden’s speech tonight.
Peace and be safe.
Steve Dundas
Peace and recovery for you and your spouse!
Thank you. She will be going through a relatively new therapy that has great results over the next 10 weeks. I appreciate your kind words.
Ketamine has great promise for TRD.
Not enough drugs, alcohol or ketamine to help with a depression resulting from a djt win, So painful to even imagine.
You have my hopes for peace to you both as well. It is an exhausting process to observe when you can’t do anything to ameliorate the pain.
Thank you so much. It is very difficult because it is so irrational. Thankfully she begins a new type of therapy that has show great results and will last 10 weeks. I appreciate you kind words.
Like I say every day, there's 100 million women primed to vote and they ain't thinking gop. All we have to do is prove to them we got their backs. And Harris is much better at that than Biden.
Men running the show forever never good for women...that time is now past.
"Put a woman in Charge!"
https://youtu.be/FciQeRGYFlw?si=MTq8b0BxVqtgw6h4
Ever notice how most of the countries with women in charge thrive?
*Real* gerbils not pleased with your comparison. Please pick another member of the animal kingdom.
Good point, gerbils are friendly and cuddly. An angry badger or deranged Tasmanian Devil might be more apropos.
Or maybe a rabid rat?
No! All animals have more dignity than this group!
*Bearded squirrel with cheeks full of nuts says "Why's everyone staring at me?"*
MFG is how I’m now going to think of the Yale hillbilly.
😂😂😂👍👍😎
Lucian, my subscription to your Substack is the best money ever spent. Thank you!
DITTO…DITTO…DITTO!
I had to get rid of most of my subscriptions....not Lucian's!
My children have told me that I must become more frugal and pare down the plethora of reading material I subscribe to. This is in the “keeper” column. I can eliminate several other news sources (maybe) but LKT IV is THE SOURCE.
Just think, if Trump wins and drops dead during his term, this POS would be our president.
The Horror...
I'd really prefer to NOT think about that nightmare.
Another great column, Lucian. It’s such a pleasure to read your cogent thoughts on these dizzingly rapid-fire political events. Vance was chosen, I believe, because *Rump jr. insisted on it. They have, evidently, become friends. Perhaps they compare their elephant guns. Vance wasn’t vetted, apparently, and *Rump Sr. has been so cock-sure about beating Biden he thought he was just throwing more red meat to the deplorables, and went along with it. If he and the MAGA ‘brain’ trust aren’t already regretting his choice I think they will soon. The Democrats have so much oppo material on Vance he should be in a perpetual punch-drunk state within weeks if the Dems play the game properly. I realize that’s not a given, but any of Kamala’s VP possibilities, especially Mayor Pete, could destroy Vance in 10-minutes or less. (As much as I really like Pete he’s not the right VP choice at this moment.) I think we can expect the absolute worst from the GQP, but continued unity and positivity from the Dems while *Rump’s tired bellicose negativity becomes useless. But I wouldn’t count him out yet. There’s sure to be unending contrived drama for the media’s benefit since *Rump can’t stand being ignored. I just wonder what antics he will come up with to get the spotlight focussed back on him. Is it possible that there will be real policy discussions this time around? Because the MAGA Rethugs have none except for P2025, and I don’t think they will want to highlight those fascist ideas very much. All the more reason the Dems have to keep bringing them up. I hope they do.
Excellent comments, Richard!! And I agree with every word. I also think Mayor Pete would be a superb VP selection but the reality of it is, at least for now, he could be a liability. And I hope the Repugnant's love of P2025 is tossed out there for the Dem's to pounce on and trash as it deserves to be.
I subscribe to Trumpty-Dumpty’s emails, just so I can keep track of the lies being posted (Hold your friends close and your enemies closer.). Right now Trumpty is screaming bloody murder about the enormous amounts of money being donated to the Democrats in the last 48 hours (of course, with him it’s always about money) and how he ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY HAS TO GET MORE MONEY TO KEEP UP!!! Nothing about policy or programs - just “GIVE ME MONEY!” This message goes out to his minions six or seven times a day. He’s desperate.
Love this!! The problem for him is that they’ve already been milked dry. They know they’re just throwing money down a black hole. He doesn’t give a shit about his cult members. It’s all about the money and the votes, and then it’s “bye-bye” and on to the next rally.
What else can a grifter do...?
Legal fees, Don Jr.'s coke habit, etc .
Junior and Fredo reportedly insisted on the choice of Vance over the old man's first choice, that Midwestern moneybags who wouldn't have been a rival for media attention. (An alt rumor is that Peter Thiel, musk, and a lesser known Silicon Valley name negotiated the seat for the infamous $45 mil/month that musk is backing away from now.)
Thank you for keeping us informed. Trump’s greed is insatiable. He's so disgusting.
Here -- excerpted from an old article I wrote in 2020 is a basic FACT that Democrats ought to make more of -- and update to note also that there was NO DECLINE IN ABORTION under Trump's administration....
excerpt follows...
------------------------------------
Abortion has, in fact, been declining for over 40 years. From 1.3 million abortions in 1981 – the first year of Ronald Reagan’s presidency, the annual number of abortions reported by the Center for Disease Control fell to 623,471 in 2016 – the last full year of Barrack Obama’s presidency. This is despite a rise of more than 82 million in our population from 1980 to 2010.
It’s stunning to note that all of that decline in annual abortions – literally all of it – took place during the Democratic administrations of Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama. Here are the numbers: under the Reagan-Bush administrations from 1981 to 1992, abortions actually rose – by 50,000 per year – from 1.3 million in 1981 to 1.35 million in 1992. During Bill Clinton’s eight years in office – 1993-2000 – annual abortions fell from 1.33 million to 857,000 – a drop of well over 30%. In George W. Bush’s term – 2001 to 2008 – annual abortions barely edged down by about 3% – from 853,000 to 825,000. But in the Obama years – 2009 to 2016 – the slide resumed, with abortions dropping from 789,507 in 2001 to 623,471 in 2016 – a fall of well over 20%.
In short, the entire 50% drop in abortions from 1981 to 2016 took place under Democratic presidencies. On a net basis, abortions actually rose over these years when Republicans held the White House. During Reagan’s eight years in office, for example, at least 5.6 million more abortions were reported to the CDC than in the Obama years.
A correlation or causation between what party holds the WH with the number of abortions?
Johnny got an A on his Math test. It was a sunny day.
Johnny got a D on his English test. It was an overcast day.
Sunshine correlates with or is the causation of straight As.
Clouds correlate with or are the causation of Ds.
Abortion is associated with pregnancies, not with what political party is in the White House.
The only possible correlation is R-Presidents engage in more unprotected sex with girls/wimmin strangers than D-Presidents do, and with a frequency many times more than Wilt Chamberlain's peak numbers.
Abortion is not restricted to an invasive surgical procedure.
Mifepristone and Misoprostol have been around since the 1980s in Europe (France invented the former). US gurls and wimmin have been utilizing the 2pill treatment as a medical abortion ever since then although it was not legal in the US until 2000. They do not file a report with the CDC on the efficacy or its use. A Rx is not an indicator of use, No Agency knows the number of abortions in the US because it's unknowable. Reported doesn't =Actual.
You got me with randy Wilt Shadow, that brought a smile to my face.
Wilt's record of scoring 100pts in a game will be broken long before his sexual exploits will. Unless one of the R Presidents notched their numbers on the mantles of the WH fireplaces.
Remember his Playboy interview boast, over 20,000 partners...hmmm.
I don't believe those numbers...
Bring them into the world, then abandon them, then imprison them. The MAGA formula.
Horrifyingly true.
Vance is just another in a long list of people who drag down the Roman Church into a garbage heap of their own sins and perfidy.