If you’re anything like me, hardly a day goes by that you are not struck dumb by who and what Kamala Harris faces in this presidential election contest. The other night, I found myself using a phrase that I have come to hate. I said, “I have trouble wrapping my head around this.” But I said it, and to my horror, I realized that I meant it. There are times that I simply cannot comprehend how it is that we find ourselves as a nation facing the politics we must witness every day.
I think we need to look more at the supporters who aren't at the rallies. The rallies, what he says there, and the rally goers get a lot of attention. But I doubt they can decide this election alone. Not every Trump voter is an angry, hate filled racist. Who are they then?
Yes, unfathomable that anyone, let alone almost half the voting public, supports this abomination. My 86 year old mind is trying its best to keep a positive attitude, but it’s getting harder by the minute. The mainstream media only ups the anxiety with its endless negativity. Thank you for articulating so well what so many of us are feeling—please keep writing!!
I'm 82, and like you, stunned that the polls and punsters call this election "a toss-up". I just can't grasp how insane that is. From FDR to Eisenhower to this stupid, ignorant, cowardly, charmless, insane beast called Trump.
I'm only 74, and. I feel like Janet and you. My parents raised us in a home without tv and their motto was "waste not, want not." But watching tv now, and listening to the news, I wonder who these people are. And why do they live in this country? We see the planet dying, and they're only eager to see it die faster, with no apparent realization that it means they and their children will die in awful ways. I live in California, and I hope that we will be able to separate from this madness. But just because I've never seen a Trump hat on a person may not mean the Bay Area is safe. Take care of yourselves.
The polls are being skewed by right-wing activists to create the illusion that there are more people who support trmp than there really are. This gives “permission” or the delusion that people who vote for trmp are on the “winning” side.
Make no mistake, there are far too many real supporters than there should be, by far, as Lucien’s column illustrates.
The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes!
So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together?
Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly..
Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President.
This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition.
What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters. This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020.
And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away.
He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters.
That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops. I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more dranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020.
It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020.
We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game.
With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states.
And what about those scary polls? The polls are trending in this direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters will say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
Few things would please me more than seeing *Rump lose by 14 or 15-million votes. Along with many here, I find our political situation absolutely incomprehensible.I get why billionaires and super rich people want *Rump, but are there really that many racists, misogynists, xenophobes, homophobes out there? It appears there are. And what does that say about us as a country. It’s certainly no compliment to our third-rate education system.
Sadly, Richard, I think there are so many racists, misogynists, xenophobes, & homophobes out there precisely BECAUSE of our badly degraded education system. And I fear it's only going to get worse before it gets better (if it ever does).
I think it is more basic than racism. It is that the extremely wealthy, as in Reagan's time, LOVE the tax cuts. They really don't care what else Trump does. It's all about money.
That has to be it. Yesterday while driving through one of the many lovely seaside towns in my blue state (Massachusetts) I drove past a most beautiful 3 story mansion with a Trump banner on it and a Trump flag on a flagpole in the yard.
Sadly, Thats true. We will win this election, but not win the hearts and minds of Trump's cultists or the GOP "Party Before Country partisans..We'll have lots of work to do.
Good job parsing out the numbers. My reasoning exactly the same. Have believed this since the Dobbs decision. No way old women, young women, all races of women, parents of girls and boys and plenty of men are going to let that stand. Plus, since Midterms, Dems have won special elections everywhere, no matter if state is blue/red/purple.
What bothers me about this is, why not the men? Is this yet another example of how, when it comes to sex, pregnancy and child rearing, the men can drop the ball? They have the luxury of having other priorities? The women are always, ultimately, the responsible party? It's like when Trump's comments on Access Hollywood came out. Men had the luxury of tuning it out, didn't affect them, other things are more important (than their mothers, wives, daughters, granddaughters). What is more important than being decent and respectful to others? Some, who voted for Trump and now detest him, missed that red flag in the first round. I hope they have dome some self-reflection and asked themselves, what did I miss? Where were the red flags? bBccause they were there, for all to see.
It certainly shouldn't be predominantly women who want Trump/MAGA out of power over women's rights to healthcare. I hope it proves not to be in this election. Trump is such an odious bloviator we should all get him out of power and by a wide margin.
Recent polling has indicated that this is actually the policy most important to the most people - before immigration and the economy! That sounds pretty hopeful to me!
I live in Florida. We had a referendum in 2016 legalizing Marijuana for recreational use. It passed by close to two million votes. Trump still carried the state. Look at Kansas. The abortion initiative on the ballot allows Trumpers to split their vote. Yes, it will drive turnout but not necessarily benefit Harris.
Merrill, I believe you hit the nail on the head. One more thing, there are maga who stand with their "crowd" when talking, but will enter the "voting booth" and mark their ballot for Harris(or leave it blank) because in reality, they are not for the misery the orange traitor represents.
Remind everyone of what they stand to lose if they vote for the orange traitor. We have just over three weeks left to put that message out there.
Your numbers make sense but it is three states that make this election. Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn. Many young voters in Michigan and old white people will not vote for Harris. Same in Wisconsin, so it will be close. Dem support in among African Americans has slipped and without a big turnout for Harris in Pennsylvania she will lose. It's possible that she can win the popular vote by eight to ten million and still lose. Try explaining the Electoral College to someone that lives in a democracy in Europe, Asia or for that matter the rest of North America. Their eyes glaze over.
It's hard to know how young, first time voters will vote this cycle. You can't rely on polling data because the polling groups aren't large enough and their are so many issues driving decisions to reliably predict an election outcome. We just have to work our tails off and make our luck to get the outcomes we want
Can't wrap my head around it to understand for myself - and worse, several times a week I am asked by friends/family/colleagues in Ukraine to explain - which leaves me at an utter loss. The asked question "what is going on over there?" masks the unasked question, which is "what's wrong with you guys, have you gone mad?"
Agreed. He provides only evil in our world, and in so doing unleashes even more agents of evil. That his evil appears to be thriving still shocks and terrifies.
You don't even mention that his actions resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid, nor that he kidnapped more than 5,500 migrant children and infants, and 2,000 still have not been reunited as of March 2024. (The figures are from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_administration_family_separation_policy)
His handling of Covid!! OMG. How can anyone even think of voting for a man responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our fellow Americans??? Have we all forgotten that???
We don’t even talk about what he did and how many deaths he and his ilk are responsible for through denial and refusal to believe in science. At some point, that has got to be said publicly , he has to be taken to account.
The candle we must light so we curse not the darkness is in our hearts. We will overcome this but maybe not right away. We will prevail. Calling all those better angels, please.
tRump’s trip down the escalator was the end of life in these United Sates as we knew it. In my very sleepy and quiet southern AZ neighborhood a MAGAT just smeared dog poop all over the inside of a neighbor’s car because he was flying a Harris-Walz banner. The car is virtually destroyed. I know for a fact that people were not like this before tRump. He is the embodiment of evil.
Personally I thought normal political life as we know ended it when Republicans not only accused both Clintons of murdering their close friend Vince Foster, but spent several millions on multiple Republican-led investigations of that vicious, cruel, insane slander. There the investigation by the Republican Special Prosecutor Robert Fiske that found nothing. Then there was the Senate Banking committee investigation. Does anyone even remember the completely bonkers House investigation led by Congressman Dan Burton who presented “forensic evidence” he had gotten by shooting melons in his back yard? And last but not least there was Independent Counsel Starr’s investigation led by Brett Kavanaugh. Memos from that investigation show Kavanaugh assured his colleagues he didn’t really believe Foster had been murdered but he wastes another 2+ million dollars aggressively investigating it anyway.
I still can’t believe the same mainstream “liberal” media that gets in a tizzy when people call Trump or his Republican allies fascists didn’t react with outrage when Republicans accused the Clintons of murder. That was when we all should have realized how extreme Republicans already were and pushed back hard. If the media and enough people had freaked out then I think things might have changed. Instead they weren’t made to pay the price for their maliciousness. Now I am terrified that it may be too late.
It seems to have started with Gingrich and Limbaugh… the MAGAts started crawling out of the woodwork, and tRump gave license to the deepest, darkest, latent part of the evil inside of man. the odd part is the majority of these people are Christians. Maybe they’re so suppressed in ways something’s burst inside. I don’t know but I’m surrounded by these people and they’ve literally gone insane. And it’s hard because they want to bring everyone down to their level. It’s become a daily battle. Vote blue up and down the ballot. Stay strong. 🌺💙💙
He’s had a huge role in shredding our democracy. He’s got some kind of serious chip on his shoulder — maybe it’s nothing more than being an ugly power-hungry slob! I hope somebody he get his comeuppance.
I don't know what the hell is wrong with people who act in that way. I can't imagine how an idea so nasty and sickening comes to mind. But, there is something terribly wrong with them. The so-called peaceful "tourists" on January 6th spread excrement on the walls and floors of the Capitol. What sort of person does that? It is gross, indecent, and absolutely disgusting. It speaks volumes about who they are. The janitors at the Capitol had to clean up that horrible mess. It shows zero respect towards other human beings. It is embarrassing that there are people in this country who are that debased and pathetic.
Somehow their anger has become their driving force I guess. I’m just amazed by the stupidity they’re forced to support. All or nothing, I suppose, or else they’re ostracized. I can only hope some of them reject it at the ballot box.
Wow, that is really disturbing. A leader's primary job is to prevent violence. What he didn't do on Jan. 6th is as bad as what he did. He has given people permission to be their worst selves by stiking emotion rather than promoting intelligence and rational thought.
The very military that he will use to round up any POC and any one who dares to speak against him. May our forces stay strong against his tyrannical desires.
I think you sum it up as well as it can be done. He’s attracted, refracted and magnified all of our weaknesses and sold them back to us as virtue at an immense profit to himself. I have no idea how or why his bullshit isn’t perfectly visible or why anyone would or even could believe a word he says.
Trump's yahoos were abandoned at his Coachella rally when their buses didn't appear, and the assholes are blaming it on the mayor of Coachella and the Democrats. These people are absolutely hopeless. They cannot face the fact that Trump doesn't give a damn about them.
Trump doesn't get the credit he deserves for tapping into the dark side of America.
While the logical take of no buses demonstrates what you wrote, it had the effect Trump seeks, being a victim of Demo-rats, libs, etc. etc.
Trump rejected his campaign's appeal to be more moderate, etc. Trump understands Rs are not going to abandon him due to decades of demonization of Ds and liberals by the likes of the Founding Fathers of the #nevertrump movement. They're seen as traitors by MAGA. Trump next focused on the irregular voters who were disgusted by the same old same old politics and DC games played by Republicans pre-MAGA.
Since Trump came down the elevator he has constantly been appealing to the darkest souls in America, He makes little to no attempt to moderate his messaging, and indeed makes an effort to darken it further and radicalize it.
Trump leads a movement, rather than one of the two legacy parties. FULL STOP. If you watched and listened to Lucian's talk on Stonewall and how it was the kickoff to a movement for 2spirit people, the same took place when Trump came down that elevator. All the old rules and norms went down as well.
That is one of the two critical elements that people can't get their heads wrapped around even after 9 years of Trump. The other being America's dark side has always in all ways existed. Doesn't matter how many times history has shown it to be true, being of goodwill prefer to look back at the times it rears its ugly head as a one-offs rather than a linear line.
POC and a majority wimmin of all colors keep reminding whites of that fact. However, their voices have never been seen or heard as EQUAL, never mind spot-on.
A historical reminder: since before the Founding and Framing people in this land have seen themselves as victims with valid grievances whether of the Crown, of the ~indigenous~" merciless indian savages ", of the infamous GIANT NEGRO (see NYT), flavors of immigrants, wimmin demanding the right to vote, workers demanding the right to strike, POC demanding the right to vote, peace activists, "hippies", rock & roll, inner city "coloreds", migrants, bi and multi-lingual people, 2spirit people, educated people, right and left coastal people, mainstream media, people who kneel during the playing of the NA, people who don't go to church, non-nuclear families, and on and on. That coalition is Trump's MAGA movement.
The people who support Trump have always been here, but he mobilized them as no one ever had before. This country has been sick since its beginning but most people are unable to deal with that fact. American history as taught is full of myths and lies designed to make white folks feel good about themselves. The society is bound and determined to continue believing the lies, and Trump's yahoos are equally bound and determined to kill anyone who gets in their way. I'm 74 and have been watching this shit for decades, and the people who attacked antiwar marchers are the same pigs who love Trump.
I mentioned #nevertrumpers because they're as responsible for Trump more than most AND are the very group who cited re: anti-war. For example Tom Nichols is a #nevertrumper MSNBC trots out once i a while. He and I go WABAC. Setting aside our personal matters, he insists the nation is fucked up because of ONE event, Woodstock. Typical R/con who always in all ways sees everything as being JUST ONE thing. Luv Stuart Stevens yet he was one of the fathers of dark attack ads that appealed to dark souls. And Bill Kristol? He has demonized Ds and libs his entire life just like his father did. Liz Cheney voted for Trump twice and has long held Ds are murderers of the "unborn" (one of my fav " " of all time. She did so to SCARE people and that ain't any different than what Trump does. But but but, today she is a living legend, a future myth.
LMRAO when some say there are more of us than them. Seriously? How would anyone know that by our history? And there is no such thing as us and them (other than the Pink Floyd composition). It's we and that includes all. Again, I distinguish yts from whites. Same with Oreos from Blacks, and Apples from ~indigenous~ and on and on through America's demographics. And now am fond of invoking how America's younger GENs rightfully see America, the Youngs and the Olds.
It's the Youngs who see America plainly. The Olds still see it only thru their clouded lens. Age is not the determinative factor in that equation. It's how a person thinks. How much and how deeply does a person look outside of their own life. One is Old when the intellectual rigor and curiosity that once drove them ends. Leaves them stuck wherever and whenever it ended.
Republicans have always been reprehensible. They are selfish and greedy, want to tell others how they should live, and used the Bible/Falwell to merge their message. Neither party is perfect, but it simply is a lie that the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans. That's horseshit and always has been. The conservatives have been trying to rig the game for decades. They claim they are the only ones who know what's best for everyone. They are sneaky, lying, underhanded, hypocrites. We do need two political parties, but the Republican Party is failing. We can finally see there is nothing moral or conservative about them. They judge others, and yet, behave horribly themselves. Mike Johnson and his son being buddies to watch out that the other one doesn't look at porn! Grow up, take responsibility for yourself and your family, and leave other families alone. Kids of Republican parents don't turn out any better than anyone else's kids. Mind your own ducking business.
I agree. After I started listening to Heather Cox Richardson, it has become apparent how mean bullies have always sought power through illegitimate means, albeit hiding behind a veil of decency. Trump ripped away the veil and these people see that they can be more bold and brazen, right out in the open.
So true as well as the statistic that was announced a few years back that America would no longer be a white majority country in X number of years. That made some people lose their minds and then Drumpf comes along with little Stevie Miller and the rest is as we see it now!
Yes, the number "scared" them, and to Trump's credit he accepted it. That's one reason he is chumming for the votes of POC and wimmin. Within those 2 communities are a number who want to be yt-patriarchists.
Dunno whether the term self-loathing is accurate it works for lack of a more precise term. (Am guilty of oversimplifying what is a deep issue that has many tentacles. This media doesn't lend itself to breaking it down to all its parts. Suffice to say there are many factors and motivations. None of which are VIRTUES.
Of major concern to me is now that this Jinn has been released to poison your nation with lies (having captured politics, judiciary, media) there is no way to ever get it back in the container. "We are not going back"? Nobody is. How can the Republican party that once stood for equality and actually brought about the end of slavery ever return to any semblance of what it was? McCarthyism, Vietnam, Reaganomics, all proved to be recoverable abberations over time, but this total surrender to the chaos cult of demented Donald Trump going on, what, nine years now, I don't know. The divisions it has caused, the polarization and voicing of prejudices and hatred, not just on social media but openly in the congress and state legislatures!
Back in 2015/16 Rs had their chance to slow to stop Trump by fielding so-called favorite son candidates in a handful of states denying him an electoral victory. They passed because of a lack of imagination, were certain HRC would defeat him even though they planned and did vote for Trump...
Fast forward to two impeachments. In both trials the mainstream Rs couldn't bring themselves to convict Trump. Both times they found excuses not to convict. Same in the post-Jan6 stuff including indictments, jury and bench trials, and convictions. Instead rallied around him because Trump has a R behind or in front of his name. Same when they folded on the bi-partisan Comprehensive Immigration and Border Bill. All that said the last R President remains Ike. A name they stopped invoking as soon as Nixon was elected.
Rs have long since gravitated to what are lesser versions of Trump. Rs/cons believe their own platitudes, slogans, bumper stickers, and yes lies. Neuroscience keeps telling folk cons are wired differently and their brain lobes are different. FEAR is something that drives them to oversimplify anything they want. FEAR is insidious as are all negative emotions. Am not qualified to conclude whether FEAR triggers other negative emotions however know well it depresses reason and encourages reactions lacking much thought.
Finally, am not convinced the most die-hard nevertrumpers want Trump to lose the election. What they seem to want more is for Trump to fail if he is re-elected which in their way of thinking (wishful thinking) will end MAGA. Unless and until they realize they are MAGA-lite and have been for 50plus years the next version will be more extreme and more violent.
Couldn't agree more. Trump is the result of decades of gop policies and rhetoric. I see no way of reforming the gop other than to ensure their decisive defeat over many election cycles.
What's equally terrifying is that half of the country is just as evil as he is. This has been a long time coming, and there were places along the way where it could have been stopped, but no one in power did a damn thing to stop it. I fear that Trump's Nazi assault will succeed. I've never been so frightened but I am trying to stay strong.
The hardcore ones are lost and almost irredeemable. But the other 40,000,000 or so are just another signifier of our broken corporate/billionaire corrupt and controlled system. And it's not just here this is going on in Europe and other places. Some of the 40M are voting R for tax/economic reasons ... Alot are also thinking trumpypoo can fix this immigration system but for many it is a protest vote against a collapsing system. November can't come soon enough for me! Harris/waltz 2024 dream it love it live it
Can’t wrap my head around..how can this be? … It blows me away… All of the remarks of frustration that this self serving, pathological liar, convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, traitor and yes, just plain evil person is a presidential candidate that according to polls?? a large portion of the country supports. And many of his supporter’s parents or grandparents risked their lives or died to defeat fascism. Are they really that stupid ?? Apparently so
Not only is everything you wrote completely true and accurate but it gets worse every damn day. I'll never understand it.
I think we need to look more at the supporters who aren't at the rallies. The rallies, what he says there, and the rally goers get a lot of attention. But I doubt they can decide this election alone. Not every Trump voter is an angry, hate filled racist. Who are they then?
That is the question. I know a few: most are intelligent, well educated and genuinely likable people. I don't understand.
Yes, unfathomable that anyone, let alone almost half the voting public, supports this abomination. My 86 year old mind is trying its best to keep a positive attitude, but it’s getting harder by the minute. The mainstream media only ups the anxiety with its endless negativity. Thank you for articulating so well what so many of us are feeling—please keep writing!!
I'm 82, and like you, stunned that the polls and punsters call this election "a toss-up". I just can't grasp how insane that is. From FDR to Eisenhower to this stupid, ignorant, cowardly, charmless, insane beast called Trump.
I'm only 74, and. I feel like Janet and you. My parents raised us in a home without tv and their motto was "waste not, want not." But watching tv now, and listening to the news, I wonder who these people are. And why do they live in this country? We see the planet dying, and they're only eager to see it die faster, with no apparent realization that it means they and their children will die in awful ways. I live in California, and I hope that we will be able to separate from this madness. But just because I've never seen a Trump hat on a person may not mean the Bay Area is safe. Take care of yourselves.
Hang in there. I also hate the political ads. I change channels. But that doesn’t always work.
The polls are being skewed by right-wing activists to create the illusion that there are more people who support trmp than there really are. This gives “permission” or the delusion that people who vote for trmp are on the “winning” side.
Make no mistake, there are far too many real supporters than there should be, by far, as Lucien’s column illustrates.
Why I am very optimistic about Nov...
It's not the polls...
It's the 2020 numbers.
The Joe Biden coalition of voters beat Donald Trump by 7 million votes in 2020, +81 million to 74 million, that is + 7 million votes!
So the first question in forecasting this Nov's outcome is...Has Harris/Walz pulled the Biden coalition back together?
Miraculously, the answer is yes. Mostly..
Mostly means 3.5 million Biden voters have passed away based on mortality averages and it's likely 5-6 million voters simply can't vote for a Black woman for president. This includes Black and Latino men and White guys who believe a woman leader is either "weak" or "strident", both unattractive attributes in a President.
This leaves Kamala with 72-73 million votes from the Biden coalition.
What is she likely to add? 7 million young first time voters, 3 million activated, pro-reproductive freedom white women voters, 1 million extra Black woman voters, 2 million Never Trump Republicans, Independents and Haley voters. This brings Kamal's vote total to 85-86 million. And there is potential for more Harris votes because Trump is such a more deranged, repellant candidate this cycle than he was in 2020.
And what does Trump have? Trump starts with 71 million because 3 million of his voters have passed away.
He adds maybe 3 million of those voters who cannot vote for a Black woman, 2 million young first time voters plus 1 million Black and Latino male voters.
That gives Trump 75-77 million votes tops. I think this total is optimistic because, as I said above, Trump is a more dranged, repellant candidate than he was in 2020.
It's very likely that Trump will lose more voters and not get to the 74 million he got in 2020.
We have at least 10-15 million volunteers working day and night to put Kamala over the top. Trump has Trump and a very small ground game.
With my forecast, Kamala is likely to win the popular vote by 6%-7%. 53% to 47%. Enough to win the electoral vote with 4 swing states.
And what about those scary polls? The polls are trending in this direction. Harris is up by 4-5% in more polls. If she wins by +6% the pollsters will say it was in the margin of error so why were we so irate? We just have to remember, polls don't win elections, voters do! So we have to keep going at 150% and sleep after Nov. 5th
Few things would please me more than seeing *Rump lose by 14 or 15-million votes. Along with many here, I find our political situation absolutely incomprehensible.I get why billionaires and super rich people want *Rump, but are there really that many racists, misogynists, xenophobes, homophobes out there? It appears there are. And what does that say about us as a country. It’s certainly no compliment to our third-rate education system.
Sadly, Richard, I think there are so many racists, misogynists, xenophobes, & homophobes out there precisely BECAUSE of our badly degraded education system. And I fear it's only going to get worse before it gets better (if it ever does).
I think it is more basic than racism. It is that the extremely wealthy, as in Reagan's time, LOVE the tax cuts. They really don't care what else Trump does. It's all about money.
That has to be it. Yesterday while driving through one of the many lovely seaside towns in my blue state (Massachusetts) I drove past a most beautiful 3 story mansion with a Trump banner on it and a Trump flag on a flagpole in the yard.
This. There is not enough reporting about those other voters. I think the rally goers will not amount to enough for him to win.
Sadly, Thats true. We will win this election, but not win the hearts and minds of Trump's cultists or the GOP "Party Before Country partisans..We'll have lots of work to do.
Harris could win by 50 million votes, but the Electoral College makes that irrelevant.
with 50 million votes, she would get every electoral college vogte.
Richard Knabel- it says a lot about our country yes. And it says nothing good that we have so many millions who would vote for Trump.
Sadly, your observation seems true. It appears there are.
Good job parsing out the numbers. My reasoning exactly the same. Have believed this since the Dobbs decision. No way old women, young women, all races of women, parents of girls and boys and plenty of men are going to let that stand. Plus, since Midterms, Dems have won special elections everywhere, no matter if state is blue/red/purple.
Do not underestimate the power of women!!!!
Hopefully the women in states where abortion is illegal will vote for Kamala, like the women in Ohio voted for legal abortion last year.
NEVER!!!! For so many reasons!!
What bothers me about this is, why not the men? Is this yet another example of how, when it comes to sex, pregnancy and child rearing, the men can drop the ball? They have the luxury of having other priorities? The women are always, ultimately, the responsible party? It's like when Trump's comments on Access Hollywood came out. Men had the luxury of tuning it out, didn't affect them, other things are more important (than their mothers, wives, daughters, granddaughters). What is more important than being decent and respectful to others? Some, who voted for Trump and now detest him, missed that red flag in the first round. I hope they have dome some self-reflection and asked themselves, what did I miss? Where were the red flags? bBccause they were there, for all to see.
Very well said Kim.
It certainly shouldn't be predominantly women who want Trump/MAGA out of power over women's rights to healthcare. I hope it proves not to be in this election. Trump is such an odious bloviator we should all get him out of power and by a wide margin.
Kamala will be a wonderful president!
Recent polling has indicated that this is actually the policy most important to the most people - before immigration and the economy! That sounds pretty hopeful to me!
Yep. The 'conservatives', no let's be correct, the 'reactionaries' have screwed themselves for a generation with pushing the anti-abortion agenda.
You DO NOT piss off Mama bear!
I live in Florida. We had a referendum in 2016 legalizing Marijuana for recreational use. It passed by close to two million votes. Trump still carried the state. Look at Kansas. The abortion initiative on the ballot allows Trumpers to split their vote. Yes, it will drive turnout but not necessarily benefit Harris.
Why not Papa Bear?
Bless your heart. Said sincerely, no snark at all. Thanks for the uplift.
I can only hope you’re right.
I completely agree with you. But we cannot let let our guard down.
Merrill, I believe you hit the nail on the head. One more thing, there are maga who stand with their "crowd" when talking, but will enter the "voting booth" and mark their ballot for Harris(or leave it blank) because in reality, they are not for the misery the orange traitor represents.
Remind everyone of what they stand to lose if they vote for the orange traitor. We have just over three weeks left to put that message out there.
👍🏻
Most excellent analysis. I'm keeping this one in my notebook for review on the coming Tuesday night.
I pray to the great spirit that you are correct.
Your numbers make sense but it is three states that make this election. Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn. Many young voters in Michigan and old white people will not vote for Harris. Same in Wisconsin, so it will be close. Dem support in among African Americans has slipped and without a big turnout for Harris in Pennsylvania she will lose. It's possible that she can win the popular vote by eight to ten million and still lose. Try explaining the Electoral College to someone that lives in a democracy in Europe, Asia or for that matter the rest of North America. Their eyes glaze over.
It's hard to know how young, first time voters will vote this cycle. You can't rely on polling data because the polling groups aren't large enough and their are so many issues driving decisions to reliably predict an election outcome. We just have to work our tails off and make our luck to get the outcomes we want
Can't wrap my head around it to understand for myself - and worse, several times a week I am asked by friends/family/colleagues in Ukraine to explain - which leaves me at an utter loss. The asked question "what is going on over there?" masks the unasked question, which is "what's wrong with you guys, have you gone mad?"
Agreed. He provides only evil in our world, and in so doing unleashes even more agents of evil. That his evil appears to be thriving still shocks and terrifies.
You don't even mention that his actions resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths from Covid, nor that he kidnapped more than 5,500 migrant children and infants, and 2,000 still have not been reunited as of March 2024. (The figures are from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_administration_family_separation_policy)
His handling of Covid!! OMG. How can anyone even think of voting for a man responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of our fellow Americans??? Have we all forgotten that???
We don’t even talk about what he did and how many deaths he and his ilk are responsible for through denial and refusal to believe in science. At some point, that has got to be said publicly , he has to be taken to account.
Come on Kamala -take off the gloves and tell it like it is!!!
Those who would vote for him would not acknowledge his responsibility for the Covid deaths. Theirs is an alternative reality.
By the way, if you want to be horrified, read Heather Cox Richardson's latest: https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/october-13-2024
Yes - I'm a subscriber, too. What a great historian she is - keeping her busy these days.
Yes, it was very dark. We are in a dark time. That recent Time cover comes to mind.
It's pretty obvious that the two Stevies, Miller & Bannon, are writing his monologues
The candle we must light so we curse not the darkness is in our hearts. We will overcome this but maybe not right away. We will prevail. Calling all those better angels, please.
tRump’s trip down the escalator was the end of life in these United Sates as we knew it. In my very sleepy and quiet southern AZ neighborhood a MAGAT just smeared dog poop all over the inside of a neighbor’s car because he was flying a Harris-Walz banner. The car is virtually destroyed. I know for a fact that people were not like this before tRump. He is the embodiment of evil.
Personally I thought normal political life as we know ended it when Republicans not only accused both Clintons of murdering their close friend Vince Foster, but spent several millions on multiple Republican-led investigations of that vicious, cruel, insane slander. There the investigation by the Republican Special Prosecutor Robert Fiske that found nothing. Then there was the Senate Banking committee investigation. Does anyone even remember the completely bonkers House investigation led by Congressman Dan Burton who presented “forensic evidence” he had gotten by shooting melons in his back yard? And last but not least there was Independent Counsel Starr’s investigation led by Brett Kavanaugh. Memos from that investigation show Kavanaugh assured his colleagues he didn’t really believe Foster had been murdered but he wastes another 2+ million dollars aggressively investigating it anyway.
I still can’t believe the same mainstream “liberal” media that gets in a tizzy when people call Trump or his Republican allies fascists didn’t react with outrage when Republicans accused the Clintons of murder. That was when we all should have realized how extreme Republicans already were and pushed back hard. If the media and enough people had freaked out then I think things might have changed. Instead they weren’t made to pay the price for their maliciousness. Now I am terrified that it may be too late.
It seems to have started with Gingrich and Limbaugh… the MAGAts started crawling out of the woodwork, and tRump gave license to the deepest, darkest, latent part of the evil inside of man. the odd part is the majority of these people are Christians. Maybe they’re so suppressed in ways something’s burst inside. I don’t know but I’m surrounded by these people and they’ve literally gone insane. And it’s hard because they want to bring everyone down to their level. It’s become a daily battle. Vote blue up and down the ballot. Stay strong. 🌺💙💙
"...the odd part is the majority of these people are Christians."
Not all those who beat their breasts and cry "Lord, Lord!" are Christians.
Gingrich claimed to be "revolutionary" but he was just "revolting". Read John Pavlovitz's take on "Christians" in this election:
https://open.substack.com/pub/johnpavlovitz/p/white-evangelicals-must-lose-in-november?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4wug3
He’s had a huge role in shredding our democracy. He’s got some kind of serious chip on his shoulder — maybe it’s nothing more than being an ugly power-hungry slob! I hope somebody he get his comeuppance.
They were then and still are now looking for revenge for Nixon, I believe. And good ole Roger Stone is still in the middle of it all!
Yes! And I’ve wondered for years why Stone is not behind bars. I mean, he’s been behind all of this.
What a sick thing to do. What is wrong with these people?
I don't know what the hell is wrong with people who act in that way. I can't imagine how an idea so nasty and sickening comes to mind. But, there is something terribly wrong with them. The so-called peaceful "tourists" on January 6th spread excrement on the walls and floors of the Capitol. What sort of person does that? It is gross, indecent, and absolutely disgusting. It speaks volumes about who they are. The janitors at the Capitol had to clean up that horrible mess. It shows zero respect towards other human beings. It is embarrassing that there are people in this country who are that debased and pathetic.
Absolutely.
That's what I wonder all the time, and I never even see them where I live. Where did they come from?
Somehow their anger has become their driving force I guess. I’m just amazed by the stupidity they’re forced to support. All or nothing, I suppose, or else they’re ostracized. I can only hope some of them reject it at the ballot box.
Wow, that is really disturbing. A leader's primary job is to prevent violence. What he didn't do on Jan. 6th is as bad as what he did. He has given people permission to be their worst selves by stiking emotion rather than promoting intelligence and rational thought.
It’s the racism his cult followers love about him.
YES! At its deepest level, that is what t-Rump worship is all about. They think he'll restore white supremacy. And that's really all they care about.
Not going to happen. Old white guys lose. Hopi legend of the emergence of 'the Fifth world.'
And he can't!!!
Evil.
Cursed.
Satanic.
Trump
You didn’t mention his contempt and disrespect for the military.
The very military that he will use to round up any POC and any one who dares to speak against him. May our forces stay strong against his tyrannical desires.
I think you sum it up as well as it can be done. He’s attracted, refracted and magnified all of our weaknesses and sold them back to us as virtue at an immense profit to himself. I have no idea how or why his bullshit isn’t perfectly visible or why anyone would or even could believe a word he says.
It’s incomprehensible
Agree, 100%.
It's a cult and he's their "Dear Leader"
Trump's yahoos were abandoned at his Coachella rally when their buses didn't appear, and the assholes are blaming it on the mayor of Coachella and the Democrats. These people are absolutely hopeless. They cannot face the fact that Trump doesn't give a damn about them.
Trump doesn't get the credit he deserves for tapping into the dark side of America.
While the logical take of no buses demonstrates what you wrote, it had the effect Trump seeks, being a victim of Demo-rats, libs, etc. etc.
Trump rejected his campaign's appeal to be more moderate, etc. Trump understands Rs are not going to abandon him due to decades of demonization of Ds and liberals by the likes of the Founding Fathers of the #nevertrump movement. They're seen as traitors by MAGA. Trump next focused on the irregular voters who were disgusted by the same old same old politics and DC games played by Republicans pre-MAGA.
Since Trump came down the elevator he has constantly been appealing to the darkest souls in America, He makes little to no attempt to moderate his messaging, and indeed makes an effort to darken it further and radicalize it.
Trump leads a movement, rather than one of the two legacy parties. FULL STOP. If you watched and listened to Lucian's talk on Stonewall and how it was the kickoff to a movement for 2spirit people, the same took place when Trump came down that elevator. All the old rules and norms went down as well.
That is one of the two critical elements that people can't get their heads wrapped around even after 9 years of Trump. The other being America's dark side has always in all ways existed. Doesn't matter how many times history has shown it to be true, being of goodwill prefer to look back at the times it rears its ugly head as a one-offs rather than a linear line.
POC and a majority wimmin of all colors keep reminding whites of that fact. However, their voices have never been seen or heard as EQUAL, never mind spot-on.
A historical reminder: since before the Founding and Framing people in this land have seen themselves as victims with valid grievances whether of the Crown, of the ~indigenous~" merciless indian savages ", of the infamous GIANT NEGRO (see NYT), flavors of immigrants, wimmin demanding the right to vote, workers demanding the right to strike, POC demanding the right to vote, peace activists, "hippies", rock & roll, inner city "coloreds", migrants, bi and multi-lingual people, 2spirit people, educated people, right and left coastal people, mainstream media, people who kneel during the playing of the NA, people who don't go to church, non-nuclear families, and on and on. That coalition is Trump's MAGA movement.
The people who support Trump have always been here, but he mobilized them as no one ever had before. This country has been sick since its beginning but most people are unable to deal with that fact. American history as taught is full of myths and lies designed to make white folks feel good about themselves. The society is bound and determined to continue believing the lies, and Trump's yahoos are equally bound and determined to kill anyone who gets in their way. I'm 74 and have been watching this shit for decades, and the people who attacked antiwar marchers are the same pigs who love Trump.
Agree, "hole" heartedly.
I mentioned #nevertrumpers because they're as responsible for Trump more than most AND are the very group who cited re: anti-war. For example Tom Nichols is a #nevertrumper MSNBC trots out once i a while. He and I go WABAC. Setting aside our personal matters, he insists the nation is fucked up because of ONE event, Woodstock. Typical R/con who always in all ways sees everything as being JUST ONE thing. Luv Stuart Stevens yet he was one of the fathers of dark attack ads that appealed to dark souls. And Bill Kristol? He has demonized Ds and libs his entire life just like his father did. Liz Cheney voted for Trump twice and has long held Ds are murderers of the "unborn" (one of my fav " " of all time. She did so to SCARE people and that ain't any different than what Trump does. But but but, today she is a living legend, a future myth.
LMRAO when some say there are more of us than them. Seriously? How would anyone know that by our history? And there is no such thing as us and them (other than the Pink Floyd composition). It's we and that includes all. Again, I distinguish yts from whites. Same with Oreos from Blacks, and Apples from ~indigenous~ and on and on through America's demographics. And now am fond of invoking how America's younger GENs rightfully see America, the Youngs and the Olds.
It's the Youngs who see America plainly. The Olds still see it only thru their clouded lens. Age is not the determinative factor in that equation. It's how a person thinks. How much and how deeply does a person look outside of their own life. One is Old when the intellectual rigor and curiosity that once drove them ends. Leaves them stuck wherever and whenever it ended.
Republicans have always been reprehensible. They are selfish and greedy, want to tell others how they should live, and used the Bible/Falwell to merge their message. Neither party is perfect, but it simply is a lie that the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans. That's horseshit and always has been. The conservatives have been trying to rig the game for decades. They claim they are the only ones who know what's best for everyone. They are sneaky, lying, underhanded, hypocrites. We do need two political parties, but the Republican Party is failing. We can finally see there is nothing moral or conservative about them. They judge others, and yet, behave horribly themselves. Mike Johnson and his son being buddies to watch out that the other one doesn't look at porn! Grow up, take responsibility for yourself and your family, and leave other families alone. Kids of Republican parents don't turn out any better than anyone else's kids. Mind your own ducking business.
am in agreement w/every word
Thanks! I believe many of us are tired of pretending the Republican Party will every come out of this stupor. The ongoing infighting won't end.
Aging can cause cataracts of the mind's eye.
pro-pro-found
I agree. After I started listening to Heather Cox Richardson, it has become apparent how mean bullies have always sought power through illegitimate means, albeit hiding behind a veil of decency. Trump ripped away the veil and these people see that they can be more bold and brazen, right out in the open.
So true as well as the statistic that was announced a few years back that America would no longer be a white majority country in X number of years. That made some people lose their minds and then Drumpf comes along with little Stevie Miller and the rest is as we see it now!
Yes, the number "scared" them, and to Trump's credit he accepted it. That's one reason he is chumming for the votes of POC and wimmin. Within those 2 communities are a number who want to be yt-patriarchists.
Dunno whether the term self-loathing is accurate it works for lack of a more precise term. (Am guilty of oversimplifying what is a deep issue that has many tentacles. This media doesn't lend itself to breaking it down to all its parts. Suffice to say there are many factors and motivations. None of which are VIRTUES.
Of major concern to me is now that this Jinn has been released to poison your nation with lies (having captured politics, judiciary, media) there is no way to ever get it back in the container. "We are not going back"? Nobody is. How can the Republican party that once stood for equality and actually brought about the end of slavery ever return to any semblance of what it was? McCarthyism, Vietnam, Reaganomics, all proved to be recoverable abberations over time, but this total surrender to the chaos cult of demented Donald Trump going on, what, nine years now, I don't know. The divisions it has caused, the polarization and voicing of prejudices and hatred, not just on social media but openly in the congress and state legislatures!
Excellent comment.
Back in 2015/16 Rs had their chance to slow to stop Trump by fielding so-called favorite son candidates in a handful of states denying him an electoral victory. They passed because of a lack of imagination, were certain HRC would defeat him even though they planned and did vote for Trump...
Fast forward to two impeachments. In both trials the mainstream Rs couldn't bring themselves to convict Trump. Both times they found excuses not to convict. Same in the post-Jan6 stuff including indictments, jury and bench trials, and convictions. Instead rallied around him because Trump has a R behind or in front of his name. Same when they folded on the bi-partisan Comprehensive Immigration and Border Bill. All that said the last R President remains Ike. A name they stopped invoking as soon as Nixon was elected.
Rs have long since gravitated to what are lesser versions of Trump. Rs/cons believe their own platitudes, slogans, bumper stickers, and yes lies. Neuroscience keeps telling folk cons are wired differently and their brain lobes are different. FEAR is something that drives them to oversimplify anything they want. FEAR is insidious as are all negative emotions. Am not qualified to conclude whether FEAR triggers other negative emotions however know well it depresses reason and encourages reactions lacking much thought.
Finally, am not convinced the most die-hard nevertrumpers want Trump to lose the election. What they seem to want more is for Trump to fail if he is re-elected which in their way of thinking (wishful thinking) will end MAGA. Unless and until they realize they are MAGA-lite and have been for 50plus years the next version will be more extreme and more violent.
Couldn't agree more. Trump is the result of decades of gop policies and rhetoric. I see no way of reforming the gop other than to ensure their decisive defeat over many election cycles.
Apparently there are numerous cities where he hasn't paid the bills for his rallies.
What's equally terrifying is that half of the country is just as evil as he is. This has been a long time coming, and there were places along the way where it could have been stopped, but no one in power did a damn thing to stop it. I fear that Trump's Nazi assault will succeed. I've never been so frightened but I am trying to stay strong.
YES__ I hate every single one of his witless, racist worshipers every bit as much as I hate him!
Me too.
The hardcore ones are lost and almost irredeemable. But the other 40,000,000 or so are just another signifier of our broken corporate/billionaire corrupt and controlled system. And it's not just here this is going on in Europe and other places. Some of the 40M are voting R for tax/economic reasons ... Alot are also thinking trumpypoo can fix this immigration system but for many it is a protest vote against a collapsing system. November can't come soon enough for me! Harris/waltz 2024 dream it love it live it
Well I'm flummoxed. It makes no sense.
Can’t wrap my head around..how can this be? … It blows me away… All of the remarks of frustration that this self serving, pathological liar, convicted felon, adjudicated rapist, traitor and yes, just plain evil person is a presidential candidate that according to polls?? a large portion of the country supports. And many of his supporter’s parents or grandparents risked their lives or died to defeat fascism. Are they really that stupid ?? Apparently so