When a man orders over 150,000 troops and tanks and howitzers and missile launchers to cross another country’s borders and attack its capital and other major cities and kill its civilian citizenry after accusing them of being “Nazis” and committing “genocide,” the question quickly becomes, where is this madman going to stop? Hitler wasn’t satisfied when he took Austria in 1938. He wasn’t satisfied when he demanded and got the Sudetenland a few months later.
This is the best thing I've read on the subject. If the Times had any sense it would trade those three morons you mentioned for you, a fashion columnist and a sportswriter to be named later.
Your comparison of the Russian situation vs what we did in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is right on and there are few in the MSP who will acknowledge the fact. Your analysis of Putin's situation is also great!! I think the endgame will be for the Russians to remove all forces from Ukr, including Crimea. If the West sticks together, Russia will see itself relegated to 3d world status.
Hopefully true in the long run, but Putin is going to leave a wake of bodies and debris and ruined lives on the way out. Let's hope the long run is a short run when the smoke clears.
Thank you for another excellent post. You are certainly correct that the endgame belongs to the Ukraine, but this may be dealt with from the Russian side. The Washington Post reported a fascinating statement by Oleksiy Danilov announcing on Ukrainian television that the Chechen assassins who were sent to kill Zelensky had themselves been killed on Saturday--he claimed the Ukrainians had been tipped off to the plan by the FSB. This suggests either that there is a faction within the Russian security services that wants to undermine Putin or that the Ukrainians got the information from elsewhere and are _encouraging_ Putin to purge FSB.
Honestly, the FSB being the source of that information is near zero. The day they are disloyal to Putin is the day they die. Betraying an op sanctioned by the Kremlin? No chance.
The explanation for what happened here is not yet apparent, or known.
Even after Korea and Viet Nam our politicians still led us into wars of choice that turned out badly. I hope Afghanistan was the last one ever. We talk about the costs of war in dollars, usually billions of dollars. But there is another cost. Go down to Skid Row in almost any city. A lot of the guys you will see there were damaged in our wars of choice and never got over it.
I agree on all counts. I have been wondering for a while how long it will take for the Russian people to say enough and really start protesting or how long it might take for the money interests to as you so mildly put it "depose" him. If the Russians do get into the major cities and start getting picked of and or decide not to fight, it will definitely be game over. There is a big difference between lobbing rockets from 25 miles away at people and seeing your buddy take a round between the eyes. Especially if you are a conscripted 20-year-old who thought you were on a training mission. Nice job Lucian. Hope it all comes to pass.
This is the best thing I've read on the subject. If the Times had any sense it would trade those three morons you mentioned for you, a fashion columnist and a sportswriter to be named later.
I told Lucian the same thing, Bill. He’s writing more incisively than anybody at the NYT or the NYer or any of the other umpteen publications I read. I agree with you 100 percent.
I proposed doing a military column for the op-ed page 10 years ago. I was told they wanted someone who could "write more broadly on more subjects." I've been writing for the Times op ed page since the month of its founding on many, many subjects. They don't want someone who doesn't sit down and spew conventional wisdom. Too scary.
And they ended up with Brooks, Friedman, Stephens and Douthat, all of whom can be both boring and wrong on an astonishing variety of subjects. It takes genuine genius to assemble a team like that.
I think you're better off writing for yourself, and your loyal readers. They want 'yes men' to keep their subscribers (mostly high economic class) happy in their illusion of being masters of the universe.
You're a far better writer than 99% of them, except perhaps Paul Krugman who did earn a Nobel for his work in economics. He's the only one I really like-and he's not a political hack, either.
That's really too bad. I've been reading your military insights for years. That's why there is a West Point. The general times reporters don't have that. Of course they could always get your opinion before they write their stories.
I fear Americans will lose their stomach for this conflict as soon as gas prices go up another half a buck. I mean, weigh the options: Ukrainian mothers and children killed wholesale or lower prices at the pump. Spoiled, whiney, selfish Americans will soon be happy to sacrifice the former to achieve the latter. If Americans have to pay $5 for a gallon of gas, it’s no longer going to be “fucking Putin.” It will be “fucking Biden and his Ukrainian buddies.”
The ironies pile up. Petersburg and Moscow are practically the only European big cities where you see American cars. Cadillacs, Chevies and Fords are right there with the European and Japanese makes. On the main road into Petersburg from the airport there’s a big, multi story GM showroom.
Last year I canceled my subscription to the New York Times. I didn’t trust them anymore.
The most common sense observations and remarks that I see, by far, are from my Substack subscriptions (click on my name). This opinion of Lucian’s is far superior to any of the mainstream media junk out there.
Putin and the Russian nation that weakly and lamely let him become the mob boss of a nation state are being squeezed like a tube of toothpaste. You’re right, Lucian, this entire scenario is going to end badly for the Russian elite, and of course for the average Russian as well. And unfortunately also for Ukraine, the heroic nation that has boldly become the foil for the demise of the corrupt Russian national political+”business” establishment. Everything that happens in Russia goes through Vladimir Putin and he takes a healthy cut. This purgative crisis is going to change that status quo.
We all need to pray this plays out sooner rather than later but I would amend your well reasoned column with this though. The West and all nations who value democratic institutions to any degree must double down on sanctions and economic pressure. Apple pulled out today. Where are all the other U.S. corporations? Why don' they do the same. Sure it is going to be a right off in some cases but less now than if we continue to only partially attack their economy.
We often hear the phrase "soft power." We need to use 100% of our soft power now to wage total war against Putin shortening the time when some generals decide it is time he retire to Sochi or a hole in the ground outside the Kremlin. That is the only way this can end for us to have victory in any proportion to the sacrifice now being made by the Ukrainians.
Yeah, I know I left "a man" out of the first sentence during an edit. I fixed it.
Thank you sir!
This is the best thing I've read on the subject. If the Times had any sense it would trade those three morons you mentioned for you, a fashion columnist and a sportswriter to be named later.
Bill, except for a slight variation, I’m with you: Lucian, a sports writer, and a fashion columnist to be named later.
Your comparison of the Russian situation vs what we did in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is right on and there are few in the MSP who will acknowledge the fact. Your analysis of Putin's situation is also great!! I think the endgame will be for the Russians to remove all forces from Ukr, including Crimea. If the West sticks together, Russia will see itself relegated to 3d world status.
“Russia will see itself relegated to 3d world status”
Hopefully true in the long run, but Putin is going to leave a wake of bodies and debris and ruined lives on the way out. Let's hope the long run is a short run when the smoke clears.
Thank you for another excellent post. You are certainly correct that the endgame belongs to the Ukraine, but this may be dealt with from the Russian side. The Washington Post reported a fascinating statement by Oleksiy Danilov announcing on Ukrainian television that the Chechen assassins who were sent to kill Zelensky had themselves been killed on Saturday--he claimed the Ukrainians had been tipped off to the plan by the FSB. This suggests either that there is a faction within the Russian security services that wants to undermine Putin or that the Ukrainians got the information from elsewhere and are _encouraging_ Putin to purge FSB.
Honestly, the FSB being the source of that information is near zero. The day they are disloyal to Putin is the day they die. Betraying an op sanctioned by the Kremlin? No chance.
The explanation for what happened here is not yet apparent, or known.
But don’t you think there’s a mole there somewhere? We’ve been getting pretty on target intel so far.
Even after Korea and Viet Nam our politicians still led us into wars of choice that turned out badly. I hope Afghanistan was the last one ever. We talk about the costs of war in dollars, usually billions of dollars. But there is another cost. Go down to Skid Row in almost any city. A lot of the guys you will see there were damaged in our wars of choice and never got over it.
😔
I agree on all counts. I have been wondering for a while how long it will take for the Russian people to say enough and really start protesting or how long it might take for the money interests to as you so mildly put it "depose" him. If the Russians do get into the major cities and start getting picked of and or decide not to fight, it will definitely be game over. There is a big difference between lobbing rockets from 25 miles away at people and seeing your buddy take a round between the eyes. Especially if you are a conscripted 20-year-old who thought you were on a training mission. Nice job Lucian. Hope it all comes to pass.
Yeah. All of that. And it wouldn't hurt to create an air bridge into Ukraine with needed supplies to resist Putin's spearheads.
This is the best thing I've read on the subject. If the Times had any sense it would trade those three morons you mentioned for you, a fashion columnist and a sportswriter to be named later.
I told Lucian the same thing, Bill. He’s writing more incisively than anybody at the NYT or the NYer or any of the other umpteen publications I read. I agree with you 100 percent.
I proposed doing a military column for the op-ed page 10 years ago. I was told they wanted someone who could "write more broadly on more subjects." I've been writing for the Times op ed page since the month of its founding on many, many subjects. They don't want someone who doesn't sit down and spew conventional wisdom. Too scary.
I think I'm going to stick my finger in their eye and send this one by tweet directly to the NYT with a snarky comment!
And they ended up with Brooks, Friedman, Stephens and Douthat, all of whom can be both boring and wrong on an astonishing variety of subjects. It takes genuine genius to assemble a team like that.
I think you're better off writing for yourself, and your loyal readers. They want 'yes men' to keep their subscribers (mostly high economic class) happy in their illusion of being masters of the universe.
You're a far better writer than 99% of them, except perhaps Paul Krugman who did earn a Nobel for his work in economics. He's the only one I really like-and he's not a political hack, either.
There’s no shortage of conventional wisdom there. That’s for sure.
That's really too bad. I've been reading your military insights for years. That's why there is a West Point. The general times reporters don't have that. Of course they could always get your opinion before they write their stories.
I fear Americans will lose their stomach for this conflict as soon as gas prices go up another half a buck. I mean, weigh the options: Ukrainian mothers and children killed wholesale or lower prices at the pump. Spoiled, whiney, selfish Americans will soon be happy to sacrifice the former to achieve the latter. If Americans have to pay $5 for a gallon of gas, it’s no longer going to be “fucking Putin.” It will be “fucking Biden and his Ukrainian buddies.”
We already pay five bucks for gas. And you're way behind the curve.
The ironies pile up. Petersburg and Moscow are practically the only European big cities where you see American cars. Cadillacs, Chevies and Fords are right there with the European and Japanese makes. On the main road into Petersburg from the airport there’s a big, multi story GM showroom.
I like it. Putin has a world of trouble. All of it his own making.
Remember what happened to Thanos? A pile of dust. May the world snap its fingers and eradicate this small madman.
Yes please
I agree with Friedman's phrase, "dirty compromise". Putin's endgame is to enjoy Odessa as his dacha.
Last year I canceled my subscription to the New York Times. I didn’t trust them anymore.
The most common sense observations and remarks that I see, by far, are from my Substack subscriptions (click on my name). This opinion of Lucian’s is far superior to any of the mainstream media junk out there.
Putin and the Russian nation that weakly and lamely let him become the mob boss of a nation state are being squeezed like a tube of toothpaste. You’re right, Lucian, this entire scenario is going to end badly for the Russian elite, and of course for the average Russian as well. And unfortunately also for Ukraine, the heroic nation that has boldly become the foil for the demise of the corrupt Russian national political+”business” establishment. Everything that happens in Russia goes through Vladimir Putin and he takes a healthy cut. This purgative crisis is going to change that status quo.
We all need to pray this plays out sooner rather than later but I would amend your well reasoned column with this though. The West and all nations who value democratic institutions to any degree must double down on sanctions and economic pressure. Apple pulled out today. Where are all the other U.S. corporations? Why don' they do the same. Sure it is going to be a right off in some cases but less now than if we continue to only partially attack their economy.
We often hear the phrase "soft power." We need to use 100% of our soft power now to wage total war against Putin shortening the time when some generals decide it is time he retire to Sochi or a hole in the ground outside the Kremlin. That is the only way this can end for us to have victory in any proportion to the sacrifice now being made by the Ukrainians.
As the Soviet propaganda posters said in 1944 “Kill the invader!”