Lucian, you wrote: "Estimates of the size of the army Putin used to attack Ukraine ran from 150,000 to as many as 190,000. Neither number was anywhere near sufficient to invade a country of 44 million with an army of 125,000 and 900,000 reservists, and the results prove it."
I wonder, when you factor in all the men in Ukraine between 18 and 65 who had to remain behind and all those lines of men who were signing up and getting their weapons, how this number is changed? I know that most of these men were untrained and many had never even held a gun, but my guess is that they have learned quickly from those who were already prepared. And even if they were techies, they probably have put their considerable skills to work in that capacity. Just thinking of the numbers and the motivation and the possible skills of those Ukrainian men (and many women too), I wonder what the real power might be on their side? I'm hoping it is in the millions.
BTW, I do not know how you managed to move, settle in and yet get another great newsletter out, but thank you!
And another thing: Those “Christians” that have aligned themselves with “Putin’s values”? They are NOT a tax-exempt, church entity and they need to lose their tax-exempt status AND PAY BACK TAXES.
you really think there's a shot in hell that this could EVER happen? I mean, I'd love it as much as you would, but I'm not holding my breath. just too profound and gigantic a can of worms, this whole issue of churches being tax-exempt. it's pretty open-and-shut for me, but I hardly have the ear of anybody who'd do anything about it...
It’s time The World took a stand and string that m*thr-f*ker up…and set an example for tRump & co. And that wealth Putin has squirreled away needs to go toward rebuilding the Ukraine.
Great analysis of Putin's weakness as a military leader. To me now the question is whether or not our CinC has the vision and stones to take advantage of Putin's failings. Yes, Putin is now "regrouping" no doubt to harden his line that Eastern Ukraine must be part of Russia regardless of whether the end game is by force of arms or at the negotiating table. But, I am sensing in both what has happened and assuming Putin stays in charge of his army's strategic plan a huge opportunity for Biden and NATO to cut the nuts off of Russia as a future threat by using the Ukrainians and their resolve to protect their nation against his invasion as a proxy for degrading Russian military power for years to come.
Yes, Biden is wise to not send in our air forces or boots on the ground, As you point out Ukraine has enough boots already on the ground IF they can get the armaments to go toe to toe with Russia. I would hope someone at the Pentagon and White House is now working 24/7 to get the advanced weapons systems needed for Ukraine to match Russia in the East. That would include having former Soviet Bloc nations give Ukraine all the MIgs they have to give the Ukrainian Air Force a fighting chance at some level of air superiority or , at least, parity over the battlefields in the East. Advanced precision guided artillery systems and shore to ship missiles to turn Russian massed artillery emplacements into the same kind of rusting hulks the Ukrainians produce north of Kiev with sitting duck T-72s and to put several Red Navy ships on the bottom of the Black Sea. Also, some higher altitude anti aircraft missiles to keep high altitude Russian bombers at bay. And, of course, as many Javelins as are needed by an army of almost a million Ukrainians.
Putin is already planning his revenge on us and NATO. Now is the time to gut the Russian military and increase the pace of destabilization in Moscow as their losses mount and the sanctions begin to bite deeper. Who knows if we get really serious about giving Team Zelensky a fighting chance we may wake up one morning to a news release from the Kremlin saying they have fired their CinC.
Not a military vet. Seems to me that military decision making is similar to weather forecasting or dead reckoning navigation: It is important to keep in mind how much you don't know, and to be skeptical about what you think you do know.
Another great post. I hope you're settling into the new digs without too many problems.
Trump and Putin both have the civilian's contempt for the military, a condemnation based on opinion rather than experience. Hitler's famous contempt for his generals was the perspective of the enlisted man in the trenches who sees the effects of terrible leadership, but Trump and Putin base their strategic confidence on little more than ego (and probably more than a few war movies).
For a year or so I payed my rent by showing up at local poker tournaments and playing a super conservative game until all the players who thought they knew the game because they watched the WSP on cable had bled out. Watching poker on TV is a really bad way to learn the game for one big reason: on TV you can see everyone's cards. Players come in with unwarranted confidence and a complete ignorance of how to calculate odds, how to read other players, and how to have the stamina to win the game (hint: Hemingway nailed it with his "raise or fold" strategy).
Of course, if you played the game with a vest full of explosives and your hand on the button, the other players might not be so quick to take your money.
Putin has evidently forgotten that Stalin placed NKVD units behind the Red Army to prevent them from retreating and to shoot deserters. I guess VP expected his own charisma to do the trick.
Good to hear from you, Lucian, hope you're settling in.
This is a chance to punish Putin and force Russia's military to face facts. Bled them white, supply Ukraine with enough rockets, bombs, and drones to draw Russia into a long terrible grind. Exhaust the bastards. Bomb the Donbas the way they bombed everywhere else. Use a scorched earth policy and make any gain an empty victory. At some point the Russian military officers will turn on Putin as their troops are starving and being slaughtered. Teach Russia a critical lesson, Western Hatred is bottomless and there will never be anything resembling a victory. Let Ukraine become Afghanistan, the graveyard of all things Putin.
Question: now that Putin's forces are regrouping, what do you think of this new general at the helm, who helped brutally dismantle Syria? This guy scares me for Zelenskyy and Nem.
point extremely well-taken. it feels like in every war there are pretty much the same nicknames, just waiting for someone to take them over. and it's just like entertainment business awards...if the only choices are all shit, then shit is going to win. consequently, if the only generals around to get those nicknames are all incompetent, an incompetent general is going to get the nickname. I hope.
Moving too slow. Ruskies are re organizing and re -- equipping. There are targets for drone strikes waiting to get bombed.. The supplies and deployment of the NSTO weapons to create Ruskie casualties are moving too slow. Hit them now, not tomorrow.
I am not a hawk, but I am a vet who was stationed in Germany during the Cold War. With that in mind, what if Ukraine invited NATO troops into Ukraine who would enter from the west into areas devoid of Russian troops and who would then establish a line of defense from N to S some distance to the west of Russian troops. I wonder??
So often, Putin is referred to as possibly the richest man in the world. But, in fact, he is the poorest. He has no friends, no loves, no joy, no serenity, nothing that gives true value to life. He could have gone down in history as the man who built up Russia for all Russians, who ushered in a golden era of freedom, creativity, and peace, but he has chosen to be a consummate villain. The older I get (70 and counting), the less I understand what makes people tick.
Putin did not read "On War" and he and his generals most likely failed to read U.S. Grant's memoir as well. Grant's chapters on the Civil War stress his reliance on 1. logistics, 2. communications and 3. intelligence. In fact, he spends far more time writing about those three elements of warfare than he does writing about the actual fighting. Grant -- like Eisenhower -- knew that without the first three there was little chance of success in combat.
Lucian, I would be interested in your opinion on the following: It is my belief, that with all the equipment that is probably going into the Ukraine, from Nato and the US, that there are at a minimum, US advisors on the ground. There may be others from Nato countries as well. I have read more than one account of Americans who have supposedly gone to Ukraine to join the fight alongside Ukraine. I am guessing it is not Joe six pack who just decided to head off to the Ukraine to play cowboy. I would be shocked if some of them are not special forces / weapons experts etc. supporting the Ukrainian army. Actually, I would be surprised if we didn't have people in there before the war broke out, who were training them on weapons use and tactics. In Vietnam, it was hard to tell the players without a score card.
I agree that some of those folks have gone, but I am guessing some of those could be actual advisors sent by US Gov. and if not that we sent others who are trained to do the job of weapons training and military advising in combat situations. I don't know how complex some of the gear sent might be, but if you don't know how to use sophisticated equipment than it is worthless.
Lucian, you wrote: "Estimates of the size of the army Putin used to attack Ukraine ran from 150,000 to as many as 190,000. Neither number was anywhere near sufficient to invade a country of 44 million with an army of 125,000 and 900,000 reservists, and the results prove it."
I wonder, when you factor in all the men in Ukraine between 18 and 65 who had to remain behind and all those lines of men who were signing up and getting their weapons, how this number is changed? I know that most of these men were untrained and many had never even held a gun, but my guess is that they have learned quickly from those who were already prepared. And even if they were techies, they probably have put their considerable skills to work in that capacity. Just thinking of the numbers and the motivation and the possible skills of those Ukrainian men (and many women too), I wonder what the real power might be on their side? I'm hoping it is in the millions.
BTW, I do not know how you managed to move, settle in and yet get another great newsletter out, but thank you!
And another thing: Those “Christians” that have aligned themselves with “Putin’s values”? They are NOT a tax-exempt, church entity and they need to lose their tax-exempt status AND PAY BACK TAXES.
you really think there's a shot in hell that this could EVER happen? I mean, I'd love it as much as you would, but I'm not holding my breath. just too profound and gigantic a can of worms, this whole issue of churches being tax-exempt. it's pretty open-and-shut for me, but I hardly have the ear of anybody who'd do anything about it...
It’s time The World took a stand and string that m*thr-f*ker up…and set an example for tRump & co. And that wealth Putin has squirreled away needs to go toward rebuilding the Ukraine.
I would like to “like” this many, many times. Spot on!
Great analysis of Putin's weakness as a military leader. To me now the question is whether or not our CinC has the vision and stones to take advantage of Putin's failings. Yes, Putin is now "regrouping" no doubt to harden his line that Eastern Ukraine must be part of Russia regardless of whether the end game is by force of arms or at the negotiating table. But, I am sensing in both what has happened and assuming Putin stays in charge of his army's strategic plan a huge opportunity for Biden and NATO to cut the nuts off of Russia as a future threat by using the Ukrainians and their resolve to protect their nation against his invasion as a proxy for degrading Russian military power for years to come.
Yes, Biden is wise to not send in our air forces or boots on the ground, As you point out Ukraine has enough boots already on the ground IF they can get the armaments to go toe to toe with Russia. I would hope someone at the Pentagon and White House is now working 24/7 to get the advanced weapons systems needed for Ukraine to match Russia in the East. That would include having former Soviet Bloc nations give Ukraine all the MIgs they have to give the Ukrainian Air Force a fighting chance at some level of air superiority or , at least, parity over the battlefields in the East. Advanced precision guided artillery systems and shore to ship missiles to turn Russian massed artillery emplacements into the same kind of rusting hulks the Ukrainians produce north of Kiev with sitting duck T-72s and to put several Red Navy ships on the bottom of the Black Sea. Also, some higher altitude anti aircraft missiles to keep high altitude Russian bombers at bay. And, of course, as many Javelins as are needed by an army of almost a million Ukrainians.
Putin is already planning his revenge on us and NATO. Now is the time to gut the Russian military and increase the pace of destabilization in Moscow as their losses mount and the sanctions begin to bite deeper. Who knows if we get really serious about giving Team Zelensky a fighting chance we may wake up one morning to a news release from the Kremlin saying they have fired their CinC.
Not a military vet. Seems to me that military decision making is similar to weather forecasting or dead reckoning navigation: It is important to keep in mind how much you don't know, and to be skeptical about what you think you do know.
Another great post. I hope you're settling into the new digs without too many problems.
Trump and Putin both have the civilian's contempt for the military, a condemnation based on opinion rather than experience. Hitler's famous contempt for his generals was the perspective of the enlisted man in the trenches who sees the effects of terrible leadership, but Trump and Putin base their strategic confidence on little more than ego (and probably more than a few war movies).
For a year or so I payed my rent by showing up at local poker tournaments and playing a super conservative game until all the players who thought they knew the game because they watched the WSP on cable had bled out. Watching poker on TV is a really bad way to learn the game for one big reason: on TV you can see everyone's cards. Players come in with unwarranted confidence and a complete ignorance of how to calculate odds, how to read other players, and how to have the stamina to win the game (hint: Hemingway nailed it with his "raise or fold" strategy).
Of course, if you played the game with a vest full of explosives and your hand on the button, the other players might not be so quick to take your money.
Putin has evidently forgotten that Stalin placed NKVD units behind the Red Army to prevent them from retreating and to shoot deserters. I guess VP expected his own charisma to do the trick.
That rally Vladdy pulled wearing a $5000 jacket was pure Trumpism, ugly mug and all.
Good to hear from you, Lucian, hope you're settling in.
This is a chance to punish Putin and force Russia's military to face facts. Bled them white, supply Ukraine with enough rockets, bombs, and drones to draw Russia into a long terrible grind. Exhaust the bastards. Bomb the Donbas the way they bombed everywhere else. Use a scorched earth policy and make any gain an empty victory. At some point the Russian military officers will turn on Putin as their troops are starving and being slaughtered. Teach Russia a critical lesson, Western Hatred is bottomless and there will never be anything resembling a victory. Let Ukraine become Afghanistan, the graveyard of all things Putin.
How I wish…
Question: now that Putin's forces are regrouping, what do you think of this new general at the helm, who helped brutally dismantle Syria? This guy scares me for Zelenskyy and Nem.
Oh, TC, I so hope you are right!
Me too!
point extremely well-taken. it feels like in every war there are pretty much the same nicknames, just waiting for someone to take them over. and it's just like entertainment business awards...if the only choices are all shit, then shit is going to win. consequently, if the only generals around to get those nicknames are all incompetent, an incompetent general is going to get the nickname. I hope.
Another superb piece. While i am sure you are still unpacking, it is good to be reading your wise incites again!!
Moving too slow. Ruskies are re organizing and re -- equipping. There are targets for drone strikes waiting to get bombed.. The supplies and deployment of the NSTO weapons to create Ruskie casualties are moving too slow. Hit them now, not tomorrow.
A few helicopters as well. These munitions will work once we start dropping on Ivan...
I am not a hawk, but I am a vet who was stationed in Germany during the Cold War. With that in mind, what if Ukraine invited NATO troops into Ukraine who would enter from the west into areas devoid of Russian troops and who would then establish a line of defense from N to S some distance to the west of Russian troops. I wonder??
So often, Putin is referred to as possibly the richest man in the world. But, in fact, he is the poorest. He has no friends, no loves, no joy, no serenity, nothing that gives true value to life. He could have gone down in history as the man who built up Russia for all Russians, who ushered in a golden era of freedom, creativity, and peace, but he has chosen to be a consummate villain. The older I get (70 and counting), the less I understand what makes people tick.
Indeed!
Yes of course. Rich in money means nothing. Every one of us is richer. Thanks for the reminder. ❤️
Putin did not read "On War" and he and his generals most likely failed to read U.S. Grant's memoir as well. Grant's chapters on the Civil War stress his reliance on 1. logistics, 2. communications and 3. intelligence. In fact, he spends far more time writing about those three elements of warfare than he does writing about the actual fighting. Grant -- like Eisenhower -- knew that without the first three there was little chance of success in combat.
Lucian, I would be interested in your opinion on the following: It is my belief, that with all the equipment that is probably going into the Ukraine, from Nato and the US, that there are at a minimum, US advisors on the ground. There may be others from Nato countries as well. I have read more than one account of Americans who have supposedly gone to Ukraine to join the fight alongside Ukraine. I am guessing it is not Joe six pack who just decided to head off to the Ukraine to play cowboy. I would be shocked if some of them are not special forces / weapons experts etc. supporting the Ukrainian army. Actually, I would be surprised if we didn't have people in there before the war broke out, who were training them on weapons use and tactics. In Vietnam, it was hard to tell the players without a score card.
I agree that some of those folks have gone, but I am guessing some of those could be actual advisors sent by US Gov. and if not that we sent others who are trained to do the job of weapons training and military advising in combat situations. I don't know how complex some of the gear sent might be, but if you don't know how to use sophisticated equipment than it is worthless.
Alexander the SoSo?