These wars you described to a T in this article brings something to mind: the famous, red-coated British Army coming to quell the upstart rebels in the colonies. Their training did them little good against the locals using their squirrel guns, and wearing rags in many cases. Guess who won. Also, the rebels had the home court advantage. When defending your home and family, I'm sure one becomes an elite soldier. Putin may lose in Ukraine, but the devastation will be terrible, to both sides.
Putin's aggression makes sense from the geopolitics angle. Just look at a map. And it makes sense for Russian internal politics too. Despots have rallied support at home by engaging in foreign military adventure for centuries. The Roman Empire was built on it. Until Teutoburg Forest marked the beginning of the end for the Empire. A large Roman army was decimated and slaughtered over several days by locals using guerrilla tactics. Every despot thinks that the lesson of history does not apply to him.
We have not seen a major power go to war against a neighboring modern state for very long in a long while. We don't know how this might play out in terms of resistance, organized or otherwise. The average Ukrainian is not your average Afghani or Iraqi (or Vietnamese), confronting hostile invaders from across the globe and with little to lose by resistance -- some of them are relatively pro-Russian, some are ethnically Russian, all were part of the collective USSR state until 1990 or so -- I wonder of a sort of "Vichy Ukraine" might be an objective of Moscow; destroy the regular Ukrainian armed forces ability to resist, install a puppet government, and only occupy a small strategic area, if that, and let the collaborationist forces handle security and administration? Guarantee that NATO is kept out but otherwise be left alone as long as they toed the line?
We can't fathom what's in Putin's mind just now but he's smarter and wilier and more pragmatic than many pundits give him credit for, and the MSM painting him as some new Hitler bent on European conquest are just hyperventilating and getting the American public (90% of whom don't know a thing about these places or even where they are on the map) all worked up to no good end, I fear.
I watched "Thirteen Days" again this last week -- it was instructive on many levels. Brinksmanship can so easily get out of control, and the military is always pushing for military solutions to problems that can't be solved militarily.
Good points all. And my strong hunch is that Western Europe and the U.S. care about as much about Ukraine now as they/we did about, say, Austria in 1938.
As in Iran, "Death to Americans" these chants and accusations have become meaningless they're repeated so often. Also pointed out frequently lately is how the Russians hate bringing their dead sons home from this kind of mess.
Very apt remarks. Although we really don't know if Putin's thinking is that he's going to occupy the entire country, and that the average Ukrainian is going to go along with this as if it's 1989 again. We still don't have a fix on his angle, and we don't seem inclined to want to come to grips with it, and the steps the US and NATO have taken to ratchet up tensions may back Putin into a corner with his own hardliners that we might have avoided.
He knows it. And the headlines continue to say Europe believes he has something far worse in store. He is already creating chaos and Biden is naming what each one is.
I hope you are right, Lucian. Just like Vietnam, terrain played a big part in the Afghan victories. And Putin doesn’t care if he bankrupts the State, he’s possibly the richest man in the world. But hubris has shredded many a mighty plan, and let’s hope it does this time too.
There are 1.6 million Russians in the tri-state NY area and 600,000 living in NY City alone. No telling how many family members the have in Russia who are supported by western companies. Putin is toast. It is just a matter of time, if he goes into the Ukraine he will just accelerate things.
Truer words were never spoken. This has been repeated over and over again over 100s perhaps 1000s of years. Most of Russia, with the exception of Putin and his cronies work for or their living depends on the west. When Putin goes down it won't be like first collapse. It's a fool me once scenario.
These wars you described to a T in this article brings something to mind: the famous, red-coated British Army coming to quell the upstart rebels in the colonies. Their training did them little good against the locals using their squirrel guns, and wearing rags in many cases. Guess who won. Also, the rebels had the home court advantage. When defending your home and family, I'm sure one becomes an elite soldier. Putin may lose in Ukraine, but the devastation will be terrible, to both sides.
Quagmire is a good word, fiasco also comes to mind. Betcha Putin also wishes he had trump in the White House instead of Biden right about now, huh?
It's just those damn "known unknowns" again.
Putin's aggression makes sense from the geopolitics angle. Just look at a map. And it makes sense for Russian internal politics too. Despots have rallied support at home by engaging in foreign military adventure for centuries. The Roman Empire was built on it. Until Teutoburg Forest marked the beginning of the end for the Empire. A large Roman army was decimated and slaughtered over several days by locals using guerrilla tactics. Every despot thinks that the lesson of history does not apply to him.
I will always remain eternally grateful that you’ve been taking notes during all of this horseshit.
Aaaaamen!
We have not seen a major power go to war against a neighboring modern state for very long in a long while. We don't know how this might play out in terms of resistance, organized or otherwise. The average Ukrainian is not your average Afghani or Iraqi (or Vietnamese), confronting hostile invaders from across the globe and with little to lose by resistance -- some of them are relatively pro-Russian, some are ethnically Russian, all were part of the collective USSR state until 1990 or so -- I wonder of a sort of "Vichy Ukraine" might be an objective of Moscow; destroy the regular Ukrainian armed forces ability to resist, install a puppet government, and only occupy a small strategic area, if that, and let the collaborationist forces handle security and administration? Guarantee that NATO is kept out but otherwise be left alone as long as they toed the line?
We can't fathom what's in Putin's mind just now but he's smarter and wilier and more pragmatic than many pundits give him credit for, and the MSM painting him as some new Hitler bent on European conquest are just hyperventilating and getting the American public (90% of whom don't know a thing about these places or even where they are on the map) all worked up to no good end, I fear.
I watched "Thirteen Days" again this last week -- it was instructive on many levels. Brinksmanship can so easily get out of control, and the military is always pushing for military solutions to problems that can't be solved militarily.
Exactly. Puppet state beholden to Putin. Bribed with cheap gas. oligarchs feeding off the remains
Good points all. And my strong hunch is that Western Europe and the U.S. care about as much about Ukraine now as they/we did about, say, Austria in 1938.
Exactly! The exit ramp is for him to draw down the troops and say, "see, it really was what I said, an exercise , the west is making up stories.
As in Iran, "Death to Americans" these chants and accusations have become meaningless they're repeated so often. Also pointed out frequently lately is how the Russians hate bringing their dead sons home from this kind of mess.
Very apt remarks. Although we really don't know if Putin's thinking is that he's going to occupy the entire country, and that the average Ukrainian is going to go along with this as if it's 1989 again. We still don't have a fix on his angle, and we don't seem inclined to want to come to grips with it, and the steps the US and NATO have taken to ratchet up tensions may back Putin into a corner with his own hardliners that we might have avoided.
The TomDispatch had a useful overview today of how this problem came to be that looks at some aspects the mainstream media today is not bothering to discuss -- https://tomdispatch.com/how-did-we-get-here/?utm_source=TomDispatch&utm_campaign=818cd5b209-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2021_07_13_02_04_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1e41682ade-818cd5b209-309344729#more -- and I think it's notable to see how many Russian leaders (like Gorbachev) and American professionals in Soviet relations and diplomacy then and now warned that NATO overreach that started in the 1990s could provoke a Russian response in the end that would not serve anyone's interests.
Hallelujah. He can't afford this, and everyone knows it.
He knows it. And the headlines continue to say Europe believes he has something far worse in store. He is already creating chaos and Biden is naming what each one is.
I hope you are right, Lucian. Just like Vietnam, terrain played a big part in the Afghan victories. And Putin doesn’t care if he bankrupts the State, he’s possibly the richest man in the world. But hubris has shredded many a mighty plan, and let’s hope it does this time too.
I was thinking "Vietnam" all the way through this, and not just because of the terrain.
Brilliant analysis that cuts through the complexities and lays bare the factors that Putin ignores at his peril.
Also, the oligarchs supporting Puty will likely lose trillions, along with him. Not an insignificant factor in the equation.
We don't know each other. Wish we did. From one writer to another this is terrific.
Thanks. I am managing to have some fun outthinking the pundits.
Easy peasy these days!!!
Yeah, but doing it *with style* is a lot harder.
There are 1.6 million Russians in the tri-state NY area and 600,000 living in NY City alone. No telling how many family members the have in Russia who are supported by western companies. Putin is toast. It is just a matter of time, if he goes into the Ukraine he will just accelerate things.
Truer words were never spoken. This has been repeated over and over again over 100s perhaps 1000s of years. Most of Russia, with the exception of Putin and his cronies work for or their living depends on the west. When Putin goes down it won't be like first collapse. It's a fool me once scenario.
Asymmetric warfare is a bitch.
The Viet Cong wrote the handbook. Now everyone knows how to do it.
I think Putin was hoping he could bully his way to major concessions from NATO, the USA, and the powers of western Europe.
Now if he invades, he has the real cost of maintaining an occupying army plus crippling economic sanctions.