President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced today that Ukraine is expecting a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine at any moment. Russian airstrikes yesterday hit the city of Kramatorsk, a center for resupplying the Ukrainian army to the east of Bakhmut where heavy fighting has been taking place for weeks. It is thought that the Russians will begin with heavy artillery shelling of the towns along the front lines between Donetsk and Bakhmut and follow that up with what Ukrainians are predicting will be human wave assaults using relatively untrained Russian conscripts to try to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
This very well might make the preceding year seem like a picnic. If putin can't win this war that he alone started they will string him up like Mussolini, and he knows it, so he has to be all in, there will be no cozy retirement to Sochi. He asked for this, and I pray that we are arming the Ukrainians with enough lethality that they can turn back the human waves that he's planning on using. He doesn't care any more about Russian lives than he does Ukrainian lives, and eventually, unless some disease kills him the Russians most certainly will. There are probably over 100,000 Russians who were alive and uninjured a year ago who are no longer so, there will be no place for him to hide that is truly safe. This is what happens when a country is run by someone that is insane. We are lucky that our institutions held when the POS that was our president was running amok, if he had had a brain he might have led us into a similar sewer, I guess we are lucky indeed.
This is so sad and depressing…and as usual the grunts will pay the price for their leaders’ hubris. Gerasimov will be no more successful as his predecessors and what reserves in men and material will be wasted for what? There’ll be nothing left when the spring comes just because Putin wants to preserve his “legacy” at the cost of Russian blood…
Putin is a pig, with no hesitation on his part to kill the people of Ukraine, and cause the deaths of thousands and thousands of his own soldiers. This war must be over quickly. We need to help Ukraine with whatever they need. To do anything less is a travesty. Already, too many people have lost everything, if not their lives. We need to step up and help Ukraine defeat this murderous assault now.
Thank you for keeping us updated. I continue to donate monthly to help ease the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Failure in Ukraine is not an option. We and our allies need to give the Ukrainians everything they need to drive Putin from their country now, not later.
My heart is torn. I want to cry but I also want to throw something! It seems the only ones with courage are the Ukrainians while the remainder of us are either cowards or fools - maybe both.
If they repeat their tactics with tanks unsupported by infantry and have long logistics lines, the improved Ukrainian defenses should hold. Any evidence of Russian attempts to position forces to outflank Ukrainian defenses?
It’s 7° and dropping where I am, with a ferocious wind blowing, but we are cozy and warm inside with good food and drink. Lucky us. I can’t imagine what horrors will arise on those frigid battlegrounds. The wounded, on both sides, will die quickly although freezing to death isn’t the worst way to go. I wish Putin and his generals were out in the thick of it, freezing their butts and appendages off, but the warmongers never are. The Russians probably sense that time is running out for them, and if they wait until after General Mud gets finished in the spring to wage an offensive the Ukrainians will have the new tanks and whatever else the West gives them for weaponry. So this is a desperate move that will cost them thousands and thousands of casualties with no guaranteed victories. And maybe a mutinous army. Perhaps the slaughter will be so horrendous that Russian mothers and grandmothers will start a revolt that will take Putin out. But wishing won’t make it so, contrary to Walt Disney’s First Law.
Funny you should say that Ukraine is Russia's Vietnam-because it happened to them when they withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988-a humiliating exercise for them.
From what I've seen, Russia has been attempting the same exercise as the Germans did in 1944, which they got bogged down in Russia during a brutal winter and deep losses for both sides.
It's funny that the Russians can't learn from history especially since they're repeating it constantly.
What's that saying?
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".
It's true, too. Russia is insane to be wasting an entire generation for this, but Putin doesn't care. He just wants his name in history books as the last undeclared Czar.
Only problem is that the last Czar ended up dead.
And Putin would be wise to cut his losses before that happens. I'm sure there are some people in his circle who aren't quite so sanguine about the chances of success.
Feb 4, 2023·edited Feb 4, 2023Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
Thanks for today's update. I don’t see how the mobiks break through, given their lack of training, poor morale, and command and control challenges. I wonder how long it will take the Russians to expend their artillery stockpile this time? Sadly many soldiers will die, on both sides, but likely a lot more Russians than Ukrainians, to gain a little ground. This will leave the Russian army vulnerable to a Ukrainian counteroffensive, once more.
When I read this sentence, I realized I'd made Mr. T.'s point some days ago talking to a friend: "Ukraine is Putin’s Vietnam." While wars are man's folly, there have been some worth fighting, or defensive. Most are terrible. This one is evil, and certainly the folliest, if you'll excuse a made up word. The inhumanity and cruelty demanded by Putin are only matched by his misjudgment of the Ukrainians and the strength and training of Russian forces. May the Russian people get behind Russian Revolution II - and the sooner the better.
If Putin and his generals launch a WWII style human/steel wave of mass attack on the plains of Ukraine the results are likely to be just as disastrous as before, possibly worse now that Ukraine has more precision guided weaponry and satellite guided artillery. And, the United States And NATO will still be sharing battlefield intelligence from our satellites. Yes, Ukraine will also take casualties but if the last year has demonstrated anything it is the Ukrainians have mastered small unit tactics and can inflict greater casualties on the increasingly poorly led, trained and motivated Russian military.
This will be a bloodbath but if the last year has taught us nothing it is Putin is going to bleed a lot more. And, if the Ukrainians can withstand this blitzkreig six months from now they will have several hundred new tanks to mount a counter attack which will kill a whole lot more Russian
It seems like this could go on for years. At some point doesn't NATO have to get directly involved? I still think Russia is going to defenestrate Putin. It may be awhile though.
This very well might make the preceding year seem like a picnic. If putin can't win this war that he alone started they will string him up like Mussolini, and he knows it, so he has to be all in, there will be no cozy retirement to Sochi. He asked for this, and I pray that we are arming the Ukrainians with enough lethality that they can turn back the human waves that he's planning on using. He doesn't care any more about Russian lives than he does Ukrainian lives, and eventually, unless some disease kills him the Russians most certainly will. There are probably over 100,000 Russians who were alive and uninjured a year ago who are no longer so, there will be no place for him to hide that is truly safe. This is what happens when a country is run by someone that is insane. We are lucky that our institutions held when the POS that was our president was running amok, if he had had a brain he might have led us into a similar sewer, I guess we are lucky indeed.
This is so sad and depressing…and as usual the grunts will pay the price for their leaders’ hubris. Gerasimov will be no more successful as his predecessors and what reserves in men and material will be wasted for what? There’ll be nothing left when the spring comes just because Putin wants to preserve his “legacy” at the cost of Russian blood…
Maybe Ukraine will be to Putler what VN was to Johnson (and the rest of us). Let’s hope it doesn’t go on as long!!
Putin is a pig, with no hesitation on his part to kill the people of Ukraine, and cause the deaths of thousands and thousands of his own soldiers. This war must be over quickly. We need to help Ukraine with whatever they need. To do anything less is a travesty. Already, too many people have lost everything, if not their lives. We need to step up and help Ukraine defeat this murderous assault now.
Thank you for keeping us updated. I continue to donate monthly to help ease the suffering of the Ukrainian people. Failure in Ukraine is not an option. We and our allies need to give the Ukrainians everything they need to drive Putin from their country now, not later.
My heart is torn. I want to cry but I also want to throw something! It seems the only ones with courage are the Ukrainians while the remainder of us are either cowards or fools - maybe both.
George Santayana-1905 said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
If they repeat their tactics with tanks unsupported by infantry and have long logistics lines, the improved Ukrainian defenses should hold. Any evidence of Russian attempts to position forces to outflank Ukrainian defenses?
Russia is a paper “Tiger” the West needs to get more involved to stop this aggression from happening over and over.
It’s 7° and dropping where I am, with a ferocious wind blowing, but we are cozy and warm inside with good food and drink. Lucky us. I can’t imagine what horrors will arise on those frigid battlegrounds. The wounded, on both sides, will die quickly although freezing to death isn’t the worst way to go. I wish Putin and his generals were out in the thick of it, freezing their butts and appendages off, but the warmongers never are. The Russians probably sense that time is running out for them, and if they wait until after General Mud gets finished in the spring to wage an offensive the Ukrainians will have the new tanks and whatever else the West gives them for weaponry. So this is a desperate move that will cost them thousands and thousands of casualties with no guaranteed victories. And maybe a mutinous army. Perhaps the slaughter will be so horrendous that Russian mothers and grandmothers will start a revolt that will take Putin out. But wishing won’t make it so, contrary to Walt Disney’s First Law.
Funny you should say that Ukraine is Russia's Vietnam-because it happened to them when they withdrew from Afghanistan in 1988-a humiliating exercise for them.
From what I've seen, Russia has been attempting the same exercise as the Germans did in 1944, which they got bogged down in Russia during a brutal winter and deep losses for both sides.
It's funny that the Russians can't learn from history especially since they're repeating it constantly.
What's that saying?
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".
It's true, too. Russia is insane to be wasting an entire generation for this, but Putin doesn't care. He just wants his name in history books as the last undeclared Czar.
Only problem is that the last Czar ended up dead.
And Putin would be wise to cut his losses before that happens. I'm sure there are some people in his circle who aren't quite so sanguine about the chances of success.
Thanks for today's update. I don’t see how the mobiks break through, given their lack of training, poor morale, and command and control challenges. I wonder how long it will take the Russians to expend their artillery stockpile this time? Sadly many soldiers will die, on both sides, but likely a lot more Russians than Ukrainians, to gain a little ground. This will leave the Russian army vulnerable to a Ukrainian counteroffensive, once more.
I hope Putin drops dead!
When I read this sentence, I realized I'd made Mr. T.'s point some days ago talking to a friend: "Ukraine is Putin’s Vietnam." While wars are man's folly, there have been some worth fighting, or defensive. Most are terrible. This one is evil, and certainly the folliest, if you'll excuse a made up word. The inhumanity and cruelty demanded by Putin are only matched by his misjudgment of the Ukrainians and the strength and training of Russian forces. May the Russian people get behind Russian Revolution II - and the sooner the better.
If Putin and his generals launch a WWII style human/steel wave of mass attack on the plains of Ukraine the results are likely to be just as disastrous as before, possibly worse now that Ukraine has more precision guided weaponry and satellite guided artillery. And, the United States And NATO will still be sharing battlefield intelligence from our satellites. Yes, Ukraine will also take casualties but if the last year has demonstrated anything it is the Ukrainians have mastered small unit tactics and can inflict greater casualties on the increasingly poorly led, trained and motivated Russian military.
This will be a bloodbath but if the last year has taught us nothing it is Putin is going to bleed a lot more. And, if the Ukrainians can withstand this blitzkreig six months from now they will have several hundred new tanks to mount a counter attack which will kill a whole lot more Russian
Conscripts.
It seems like this could go on for years. At some point doesn't NATO have to get directly involved? I still think Russia is going to defenestrate Putin. It may be awhile though.