At 7:03 a.m. European Central Time, a Russian Su-27 fighter jet hit an American Reaper surveillance drone that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea and caused it to crash into international waters. It’s not clear from Pentagon remarks on the incident if the “hit” was caused by a missile or by the Russian aircraft itself, although the language used by National Security Council spokesman John Kirby describing the encounter as “unsafe and unprofessional” indicates the latter. Kirby said the Russian combat aircraft had dumped fuel on the drone “in a reckless, environmentally unsound” manner in advance of the drone’s downing.
I'm waiting for Ron, Tuck, and the Wall Street Journal to say that our drone got in the way of the Russian aircraft because the U.S. military is too WOKE. It's only a matter of time . . .
NatSec spox said " ... the Russian combat aircraft had dumped fuel on the drone." In non-aeronautical terms, the Ruskies took a dump on an American aircraft. Watch this space.
My impression from the reports on The Guardian was also that the Russian fighter literally "hit" the drone and wrecked a propeller and either caused the drone to crash or the drone's controllers deliberately crashed it into the sea to avoid further problems (or tottering off to crash on land somewhere). Not clear exactly where this was over the Black Sea. I was surprised to learn that a plane can strike a drone like this and not itself be damaged, but such seems to be the case. Maybe the pilot was more skilled than we like to give them credit for.
In any event, you have to believe that the Russians ARE extremely annoyed by US drones either spying on their naval facilities or providing surveillance data to Ukraine (or both), and it's naive to think this isn't seen as provocative when Americans collectively flipped out over a "Chinese Spy Balloon" not so long ago (and was it truly a spy balloon? We haven't heard much from officials since the wreckage was recovered). Imagine the Chinese or Russians were routinely flying drones off our shores, or off Hawaii, or near naval bases in Japan. (Maybe they are, but I'd expect Washington to make more of a big stink about it.)
The longer this war goes on, the more risk we run of accidents and miscalculations, is what this all demonstrates to me. I wish there was more pressure on both sides to seek negotiations, but everyone seems to have hardened their hearts at this point, and both sides still think they can win this thing outright. But imagine if the Arab-Israeli wars hadn't been choked off by the major powers before those got out of hand. There's a lesson in that.
Mar 14, 2023·edited Mar 15, 2023Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
Not Gary Powers.
The USAF is ramping up Loyal Wingman for just this reason. 1,000 or so drones that can be controlled by F35 pilots, or even more remotely, have been ordered. Put the machine in these high risk Ops. They're easier to write off and avoid escalation. Plus, with an enhanced capacity to fuck over the bad guys when the time comes.
Something I think has been lost in all this is that we're devouring lessons learned. And showing it off to China. It's our military's SOP.
I expect we'll not be hearing about this kind of stuff in the South China Sea.
Once again, thanks for these exceptional posts over the last few days. You do a great job of untangling the reporting on the Putin War. From an old warfighter/planner, Well Done!
The AIM-9X is the Sidewinder. The Hellfire is the AGM-114. There is one variant of it call the Flying Ginzu that has a concrete warhead but six metal blades that unfurl in-flight. They can get the guy in the passenger seat and the driver and people in the back seat are unharmed.
What kind of pilot puts a multi-million dollar fighter aircraft at risk to take out a couple of hundred thousand drone? I did not know Tom Cruise flew for the Russian Air Force.
What a game of cat and mouse this war has become. Vlad must be going crazy knowing that not only are we sharing our superior war technology, but also our unparalleled intelligence capability.
This reminds me of Soviet aircraft buzzing Allied transports which were flying into Berlin during the Berlin Airlift. The games of "chicken" went on until one of the Soviet pilots rammed into a transport, killing everyone, I think. The Allies had not previously retaliated against the USSR because priority was getting the goods into Berlin. After the incident, the Soviets immediately stopped on their own volition.
Now, today? Well, keep on with the reconnaissance and don't stop providing information to Ukraine. We are already involved supporting them so reconnaissance missions aren't a change in our posture anyway, nor a provocation. Predictably, the alt right will probably start screaming WWIII or similar protestations.
I think the Russians will back off eventually, but it will depend on how they read the alt right's influence on our current policy.
"The MQ-9 Reaper drone has a wingspan of 66 feet and is powered by a turboprop engine. The drone is capable of carrying 1,500 pounds of munitions, including Stinger missiles and JDAM and Paveway laser-guided bombs..." Why when I hear "drone" do I think an annoying mosquito-whining toy? This is longer than my house!! Thank you for the visuals and other facts, Lucian!
Black Sea UAV/RPA operational flight procedures to be modified? Ongoing surveillance flights to be conducted in discrete pairings, to enable full informational capture of details surrounding any such further incidents with the secondary UCAVs to remain unarmed at this time.
Two old sayings I never liked, seem to apply to this "incident":
1. What good for the goose is good for the gander."
2, All's fair in love and war.
My Pop told me that his college adviser at City College was involved in research for biochemical warfare. The book he cited was "Life on Man" about bacteria, but it's doubtful this little tiny fact was included in the publication.
Same goes for the early suspicion that COVID escaped from a chemical lab in China.
Another family member, a research scientist at an unnamed university told his mom that the US had to nix any finger-pointing because of our own germ-warfare research.
How's about this principle: "What comes around goes around."
My trouble with Karma begins when bystanders get caught in the crossfire. Otherwise l approve of the concept that you’re held accountable for your actions through the outcome of our behaviour. However when you consider bacteria, the theory of Karma takes a back seat to just being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Ron and Tuck can call Vlad and apologize for our drone getting in the way of their aircraft 🤨
I'm waiting for Ron, Tuck, and the Wall Street Journal to say that our drone got in the way of the Russian aircraft because the U.S. military is too WOKE. It's only a matter of time . . .
Agreed!
You know what they say... where there are woke banks..there are woke drones. That damn wokeness just spreads like wildfire.
I know! That damn woke garbage can of mine fell over today because it was so damn woke it couldn't stand up straight!!
😹😹
Wokeness can't spread fast enough for me. I'm out here fanning the flames! :-)
Haha! Good one. Woke drones, the scourge of aviation...
NatSec spox said " ... the Russian combat aircraft had dumped fuel on the drone." In non-aeronautical terms, the Ruskies took a dump on an American aircraft. Watch this space.
Precisely! I was thinking of the very same thing.
My impression from the reports on The Guardian was also that the Russian fighter literally "hit" the drone and wrecked a propeller and either caused the drone to crash or the drone's controllers deliberately crashed it into the sea to avoid further problems (or tottering off to crash on land somewhere). Not clear exactly where this was over the Black Sea. I was surprised to learn that a plane can strike a drone like this and not itself be damaged, but such seems to be the case. Maybe the pilot was more skilled than we like to give them credit for.
In any event, you have to believe that the Russians ARE extremely annoyed by US drones either spying on their naval facilities or providing surveillance data to Ukraine (or both), and it's naive to think this isn't seen as provocative when Americans collectively flipped out over a "Chinese Spy Balloon" not so long ago (and was it truly a spy balloon? We haven't heard much from officials since the wreckage was recovered). Imagine the Chinese or Russians were routinely flying drones off our shores, or off Hawaii, or near naval bases in Japan. (Maybe they are, but I'd expect Washington to make more of a big stink about it.)
The longer this war goes on, the more risk we run of accidents and miscalculations, is what this all demonstrates to me. I wish there was more pressure on both sides to seek negotiations, but everyone seems to have hardened their hearts at this point, and both sides still think they can win this thing outright. But imagine if the Arab-Israeli wars hadn't been choked off by the major powers before those got out of hand. There's a lesson in that.
Some smart thinking going on here.
Yep, Dr. Strangelove, General Jack Ripper says WWIII is ON !
Prepare the kids for
RED DAWN ...............!
Not Gary Powers.
The USAF is ramping up Loyal Wingman for just this reason. 1,000 or so drones that can be controlled by F35 pilots, or even more remotely, have been ordered. Put the machine in these high risk Ops. They're easier to write off and avoid escalation. Plus, with an enhanced capacity to fuck over the bad guys when the time comes.
Something I think has been lost in all this is that we're devouring lessons learned. And showing it off to China. It's our military's SOP.
I expect we'll not be hearing about this kind of stuff in the South China Sea.
Once again, thanks for these exceptional posts over the last few days. You do a great job of untangling the reporting on the Putin War. From an old warfighter/planner, Well Done!
But yeah. Not stingers on Reapers.
Sir:
A correction. The Reaper carries Hellfire missiles, not Stinger missiles.
Sir:
A correction. The Reaper can carry the AIM-9X. You know, Stinger missiles.
The AIM-9X is the Sidewinder. The Hellfire is the AGM-114. There is one variant of it call the Flying Ginzu that has a concrete warhead but six metal blades that unfurl in-flight. They can get the guy in the passenger seat and the driver and people in the back seat are unharmed.
Got it, but this stuff is beginning to sound like weapons porn to me.
Thank you for reminding me. Sometimes I need to remember war isn't about the tech, but the people trapped in it.
What kind of pilot puts a multi-million dollar fighter aircraft at risk to take out a couple of hundred thousand drone? I did not know Tom Cruise flew for the Russian Air Force.
it's a $32,000,000 drone
Aha!!
Is it time to bend over and kiss our collective a$$es goodbye? Sheesh. This news is not pleasant.
Russian desperation over loses in Ukraine will give cause for more bad behavior over the Black Sea and beyond. The US should be careful.
What a game of cat and mouse this war has become. Vlad must be going crazy knowing that not only are we sharing our superior war technology, but also our unparalleled intelligence capability.
This reminds me of Soviet aircraft buzzing Allied transports which were flying into Berlin during the Berlin Airlift. The games of "chicken" went on until one of the Soviet pilots rammed into a transport, killing everyone, I think. The Allies had not previously retaliated against the USSR because priority was getting the goods into Berlin. After the incident, the Soviets immediately stopped on their own volition.
Now, today? Well, keep on with the reconnaissance and don't stop providing information to Ukraine. We are already involved supporting them so reconnaissance missions aren't a change in our posture anyway, nor a provocation. Predictably, the alt right will probably start screaming WWIII or similar protestations.
I think the Russians will back off eventually, but it will depend on how they read the alt right's influence on our current policy.
It's the regular old Right in addition to what you call the alt Right.
True that, thanks. Disheartening, to be sure.
"The MQ-9 Reaper drone has a wingspan of 66 feet and is powered by a turboprop engine. The drone is capable of carrying 1,500 pounds of munitions, including Stinger missiles and JDAM and Paveway laser-guided bombs..." Why when I hear "drone" do I think an annoying mosquito-whining toy? This is longer than my house!! Thank you for the visuals and other facts, Lucian!
Black Sea UAV/RPA operational flight procedures to be modified? Ongoing surveillance flights to be conducted in discrete pairings, to enable full informational capture of details surrounding any such further incidents with the secondary UCAVs to remain unarmed at this time.
Two old sayings I never liked, seem to apply to this "incident":
1. What good for the goose is good for the gander."
2, All's fair in love and war.
My Pop told me that his college adviser at City College was involved in research for biochemical warfare. The book he cited was "Life on Man" about bacteria, but it's doubtful this little tiny fact was included in the publication.
Same goes for the early suspicion that COVID escaped from a chemical lab in China.
Another family member, a research scientist at an unnamed university told his mom that the US had to nix any finger-pointing because of our own germ-warfare research.
How's about this principle: "What comes around goes around."
You could say that about Karma too.
My trouble with Karma begins when bystanders get caught in the crossfire. Otherwise l approve of the concept that you’re held accountable for your actions through the outcome of our behaviour. However when you consider bacteria, the theory of Karma takes a back seat to just being in the wrong place at the wrong time.