Do you want to know why the current map of the war in Ukraine looks the way it does? Why the Russian army hasn’t moved out of the lands it already occupied in Donetsk and Luhansk in the east? Why the map shows they still haven’t taken Kyiv or Kharkiv, despite having forces arrayed around both cities? Why in the south, they have taken the port cities of Kherson and Mariupol, but they haven’t even gotten within shelling distance of Odessa to the West?
one aspect of the Vietnam War is analogous to Russia's war on Ukraine. Remember whenB-52's tried to obliterate every bit of land they could? In the end, despite massive destruction and heinous loss of life, the Vietnamese survived. They won the war through sheer grit and determination coupled with America's total misreading of the situation and the egotistical actions of the military.
In the end, Russia will find itself in the same position as it did in Afghanistan, war with no end.
Unlike Afghanistan, the cost for the Ukrainian War will be shouldered by the people of Ukraine. The blood they spill and the physical destruction will endure far past the end of this invasion.
There is one glaring difference, comparing this war with the USA’s Vietnam war:
Russia and the Ukraine have been allies, friends, partners. The airport north of Kyiv called “Hostomel” is Antonov Airport, the equivalent of Boeing Field in Renton Washington. Antonov aircraft were considered Russian. Russia and the Ukraine was basically one and the same.
It’s like the USA invading Canada, or Mexico. Actually, it’s more like California attacking Oregon, or New York sending troops and artillery into New Jersey.
Of course the morale issues correspond perfectly with Vietnam. An occupied country is a lost cause for the occupier, in this day and age. That’s where Lucian’s analogy fits perfectly.
Putin's strategy is to kill every last Ukrainian, military or civilian, and declare victory. But, killing 40 million people is going to take a long time. My fear is we, as in the West, will allow him to execute (pardon the pun) without actually ratcheting up the pressure on him beyond what we have already declared to be "punishing Russia for its war crimes."
It is clear we as in the United States and our allies are not going to intervene directly militarily in any meaningful manner. We will continue to supple the Ukrainians as long as they resist but as their military is degraded over time that will become primarily arming an insurgency under the cover of darkness.
If we were serious about actually defeating Putin without resorting to all out military intevention we would find a way to stop purchasing any oil and gas from him plus making the embargo of Western goods and capital going into Russia a total one. That would force us to pay a heavy price in the form of higher prices for energy and it would force our European allies , more so than us, to accept a slow down in their industrial production with the resulting depression. But, without such a draconian non military plan Putin will continue to finance his deadly army and keep most of the generals and oligarchs mollified. In spite of all the happy talk that forces inside Russia will go tired of a quagmire and overthrow Putin there is no evidence that will be the case. His grip on a security stake is tight and he has set up a command structure totally loyal to him.
Yes, the Russian military will be bled white and many rank and file Russian soldiers will either be killed in combat or , as likely as the conflict crawls along, executed by FSB officers but it is going to go on so long as Putin has positive cash flow to purchase more cluster and barrel bombs.
Call me a negative Nelly but in the past ten days we have seen Vladimir Putin is willing to kill as many human beings as he likes so long as he can keep his military in the field. Why not start making it one hell of a lot more difficult to do that?
Give Nixon a modicum of credit for steadily drawing down U.S. troops during 1972 when he and Kissinger had finally surmised correctly that a battlefield victory had become a hopeless prospect. When I asked General Giap during a visit to Hanoi in the mid-1990s why our side had lost the war he replied in French: "Parce que nous le voulions plus que vous." ("Because we wanted it more than you did.")
Someone, somehow, has to convey to the Russian field officers in Ukraine that they will be held accountable for the war crimes they and their unfortunate minions are perpetrating.
This boomer grandma (my identifier of choice) appreciates the continuing education in military strategy and warfare. The My Lai analogy stimulates what logical sense I possess developed in the 60's. Afraid I would be humming "Gimme Shelter" if left to my own coping devices. I can't offer a magical solution to this global horror, but knowledge is power. Even here in KY, the red state that only bleeds blue for its basketball team.
Lucian, I had read somewhere that Putin has rather thin skin and always sees himself as a victim. I had also read somewhere that he keeps up with "real" news even as he promotes only fake "news." Surely by now he has gotten the message that he is viewed as a pariah in this world. I wonder if knowing this feeds his pathetic ego or further forces him into his self-painted corner.
Pretty soon it will be planting time in the enormous wheat growing regions of Ukraine and Russia that together account for about 45% of wheat exported globally. What the 2022 crop year for the region's wheat will look like is anybody's guess at this point, but wheat prices are already rising sharply. Global carryovers of wheat from 2021 are smaller than in recent years.
Somehow I am betting the GOP Senators from the Great Plains will find a way to spin that as a triumph of capitalism. And, hit up Big Ag for some significant campaign contributions for 2022 and 2024.
robert, You are right. Foodstuffs are price inelastic which simply means that when prices go up a lot, consumers will still "demand" (ie want) a lot of it. They have no choice since starving is no an option and even cutting back significantly is very hard.
All s true, the sad part is how in our so called civilized society one man can wield so much power through instilling fear of arrest on his entire population if they so much as voice the slightest criticism. So he is able to terrorise an entire nation by destroying their infrastructure whether occupied by military personnel or civilians. He draws no distinction. We too are afraid of him, all of the NATO countries including ourselves because he has nuclear weapons and nobody knows if he's be crazy enough to use them even though it would be mass suicide for him and his people since we would retaliate with almost simyltabeaouslt but of course mass destruction on both sides. he same. Of course he was told in advance he is safe from attack by Nato when they announced that a no-fly zone was off the table, and when our president and others said no boots on the ground. I thought you were not supposed to tell your enem what you will not do since that gives him a clear advantage as he now knows he will have no opposition to fear in a military sense giving him in essence permission to go ahead with whatever plans he has to destroy and kill to his hearts content. How dumb is that coming from our leaders who should know better. Of course they are inflicting some pretty serious financial damage and may even if NATO agrees stop imports of Russian oil. Meantime while this is being decided people are suffering all kinds of hardships, physical injuries and death no guarantee o an end of the hostilities any time soon. Personally I feel if we are not going to assist militarily other than providing more armaments we should be prepared to sacrifice a little mote with higher prices at the pump, etc., and halt these imports. I bet that if we were to send planes via Poland (which is very uncertain according to the Poles as they want universal NATO agreement) that Putin would not start a nuclear war, not even if we put boots on the ground. The way to confront a strong man is with another strong man.
Is deploying the "nuclear saber" solely the decision of Putin or are there any fail-safes like the American generals who agreed to keep Trump from going nuclear? Probably a rhetorical question.
It would be instructive to know more about the security around Russian nuclear options; I'm sure these have been analyzed and some of it reported, would take some research to locate this information, such as we might have or believe to be accurate. The crucial decisions may be more centralized in Putin than formerly, or than we would be comfortable with. But there must also be high-level officials involved, if only as secondary commanders in the event of the normal government command chain being destroyed or communications unavailable. The Us and other countries certainly have layers of command and duplicate commands to cover all anticipated eventualities.
We could have stopped the Russian movement, but, no. We give in to the threats that will remain threats after the Russians improve their positions.
We do the same when confronted by Repug threats…and tRump & cronies continue to subvert this democracy. The SDNY has backed off its criminal investigation of tRump; the FBI —who knows where they’ve been for all these years—and the Repugs have threaten the current attorney general with “political repercussions.” THUGS rule.
The visuals of a great powers army slaughtering civilians will do a generations worth of damage to Russia's reputation. Mr. Putin might finally embarrass his senior staff to the point they cashier him as Khrushchev was. Russia can't afford to be cut off from the world. Arresting ten thousand protestors scares millions and will eventually turn toward popular rebellion or revolution, even the FSB GRU and Interior Ministry Police have their limits. It's unlikely ordinary Russians will tolerate Stalinist tactics of repression. What matters is that the West is careful and let this thing play out. What is unknown how humanity will react to the wholesale slaughter of Kyiv.
Here are a couple of takeaways. Your comment regarding the hollowed-out US Army after Vietnam struck me. I recall a conversation with my father, a 33 year veteran and a Bird Colonel who fought in Bastogne with the 101st and again in Korea. I was a Captain, recently returned from Vietnam who had commanded a Combat Engineer company in Vietnam and was teaching at the Engineer School at Ft. Belvoir. I was considering resigning. He said to me, "My recommendation is that you get out. The military isn't the career it used to be. You will be happier as a civilian. Sort of proofs your comment. Even he was discouraged. It was just the beginning of the great resignation.
Secondly, the weather continues to turn on the Russians. Temperatures are down in the -20 degree range and all those conscripts driving those trucks that are running out of fuel, food and water, may not have much choice anymore. Either freeze or starve to death or walk away. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.
I haven't replied much recently to your posts, Lucian. Just too shocked and overwhelmed. Please write something about the first impeachment, would you? if you haven't (I can't keep up). And thank you for all these posts and using your experience and writing to help us understand what is happening.
one aspect of the Vietnam War is analogous to Russia's war on Ukraine. Remember whenB-52's tried to obliterate every bit of land they could? In the end, despite massive destruction and heinous loss of life, the Vietnamese survived. They won the war through sheer grit and determination coupled with America's total misreading of the situation and the egotistical actions of the military.
In the end, Russia will find itself in the same position as it did in Afghanistan, war with no end.
Unlike Afghanistan, the cost for the Ukrainian War will be shouldered by the people of Ukraine. The blood they spill and the physical destruction will endure far past the end of this invasion.
In war there is no winner.
There is one glaring difference, comparing this war with the USA’s Vietnam war:
Russia and the Ukraine have been allies, friends, partners. The airport north of Kyiv called “Hostomel” is Antonov Airport, the equivalent of Boeing Field in Renton Washington. Antonov aircraft were considered Russian. Russia and the Ukraine was basically one and the same.
It’s like the USA invading Canada, or Mexico. Actually, it’s more like California attacking Oregon, or New York sending troops and artillery into New Jersey.
Of course the morale issues correspond perfectly with Vietnam. An occupied country is a lost cause for the occupier, in this day and age. That’s where Lucian’s analogy fits perfectly.
Putin's strategy is to kill every last Ukrainian, military or civilian, and declare victory. But, killing 40 million people is going to take a long time. My fear is we, as in the West, will allow him to execute (pardon the pun) without actually ratcheting up the pressure on him beyond what we have already declared to be "punishing Russia for its war crimes."
It is clear we as in the United States and our allies are not going to intervene directly militarily in any meaningful manner. We will continue to supple the Ukrainians as long as they resist but as their military is degraded over time that will become primarily arming an insurgency under the cover of darkness.
If we were serious about actually defeating Putin without resorting to all out military intevention we would find a way to stop purchasing any oil and gas from him plus making the embargo of Western goods and capital going into Russia a total one. That would force us to pay a heavy price in the form of higher prices for energy and it would force our European allies , more so than us, to accept a slow down in their industrial production with the resulting depression. But, without such a draconian non military plan Putin will continue to finance his deadly army and keep most of the generals and oligarchs mollified. In spite of all the happy talk that forces inside Russia will go tired of a quagmire and overthrow Putin there is no evidence that will be the case. His grip on a security stake is tight and he has set up a command structure totally loyal to him.
Yes, the Russian military will be bled white and many rank and file Russian soldiers will either be killed in combat or , as likely as the conflict crawls along, executed by FSB officers but it is going to go on so long as Putin has positive cash flow to purchase more cluster and barrel bombs.
Call me a negative Nelly but in the past ten days we have seen Vladimir Putin is willing to kill as many human beings as he likes so long as he can keep his military in the field. Why not start making it one hell of a lot more difficult to do that?
US will stop importing Russian gas today. We don’t buy that much however
Excellent reality check!
Give Nixon a modicum of credit for steadily drawing down U.S. troops during 1972 when he and Kissinger had finally surmised correctly that a battlefield victory had become a hopeless prospect. When I asked General Giap during a visit to Hanoi in the mid-1990s why our side had lost the war he replied in French: "Parce que nous le voulions plus que vous." ("Because we wanted it more than you did.")
Someone, somehow, has to convey to the Russian field officers in Ukraine that they will be held accountable for the war crimes they and their unfortunate minions are perpetrating.
Doubt if they know anything about the Hague and what happens to butchers.
Welcome to the Slobodan Milosevic suite, Vlad.
This boomer grandma (my identifier of choice) appreciates the continuing education in military strategy and warfare. The My Lai analogy stimulates what logical sense I possess developed in the 60's. Afraid I would be humming "Gimme Shelter" if left to my own coping devices. I can't offer a magical solution to this global horror, but knowledge is power. Even here in KY, the red state that only bleeds blue for its basketball team.
It’s just a kiss away
Yep!
Lucian, I had read somewhere that Putin has rather thin skin and always sees himself as a victim. I had also read somewhere that he keeps up with "real" news even as he promotes only fake "news." Surely by now he has gotten the message that he is viewed as a pariah in this world. I wonder if knowing this feeds his pathetic ego or further forces him into his self-painted corner.
Pretty soon it will be planting time in the enormous wheat growing regions of Ukraine and Russia that together account for about 45% of wheat exported globally. What the 2022 crop year for the region's wheat will look like is anybody's guess at this point, but wheat prices are already rising sharply. Global carryovers of wheat from 2021 are smaller than in recent years.
Somehow I am betting the GOP Senators from the Great Plains will find a way to spin that as a triumph of capitalism. And, hit up Big Ag for some significant campaign contributions for 2022 and 2024.
robert, You are right. Foodstuffs are price inelastic which simply means that when prices go up a lot, consumers will still "demand" (ie want) a lot of it. They have no choice since starving is no an option and even cutting back significantly is very hard.
MSNBC reported from Ukraine that the wheat will not be planted (don't know their source).
All s true, the sad part is how in our so called civilized society one man can wield so much power through instilling fear of arrest on his entire population if they so much as voice the slightest criticism. So he is able to terrorise an entire nation by destroying their infrastructure whether occupied by military personnel or civilians. He draws no distinction. We too are afraid of him, all of the NATO countries including ourselves because he has nuclear weapons and nobody knows if he's be crazy enough to use them even though it would be mass suicide for him and his people since we would retaliate with almost simyltabeaouslt but of course mass destruction on both sides. he same. Of course he was told in advance he is safe from attack by Nato when they announced that a no-fly zone was off the table, and when our president and others said no boots on the ground. I thought you were not supposed to tell your enem what you will not do since that gives him a clear advantage as he now knows he will have no opposition to fear in a military sense giving him in essence permission to go ahead with whatever plans he has to destroy and kill to his hearts content. How dumb is that coming from our leaders who should know better. Of course they are inflicting some pretty serious financial damage and may even if NATO agrees stop imports of Russian oil. Meantime while this is being decided people are suffering all kinds of hardships, physical injuries and death no guarantee o an end of the hostilities any time soon. Personally I feel if we are not going to assist militarily other than providing more armaments we should be prepared to sacrifice a little mote with higher prices at the pump, etc., and halt these imports. I bet that if we were to send planes via Poland (which is very uncertain according to the Poles as they want universal NATO agreement) that Putin would not start a nuclear war, not even if we put boots on the ground. The way to confront a strong man is with another strong man.
Is deploying the "nuclear saber" solely the decision of Putin or are there any fail-safes like the American generals who agreed to keep Trump from going nuclear? Probably a rhetorical question.
It would be instructive to know more about the security around Russian nuclear options; I'm sure these have been analyzed and some of it reported, would take some research to locate this information, such as we might have or believe to be accurate. The crucial decisions may be more centralized in Putin than formerly, or than we would be comfortable with. But there must also be high-level officials involved, if only as secondary commanders in the event of the normal government command chain being destroyed or communications unavailable. The Us and other countries certainly have layers of command and duplicate commands to cover all anticipated eventualities.
We could have stopped the Russian movement, but, no. We give in to the threats that will remain threats after the Russians improve their positions.
We do the same when confronted by Repug threats…and tRump & cronies continue to subvert this democracy. The SDNY has backed off its criminal investigation of tRump; the FBI —who knows where they’ve been for all these years—and the Repugs have threaten the current attorney general with “political repercussions.” THUGS rule.
You make some good points, Kozmo. Thank you.
The visuals of a great powers army slaughtering civilians will do a generations worth of damage to Russia's reputation. Mr. Putin might finally embarrass his senior staff to the point they cashier him as Khrushchev was. Russia can't afford to be cut off from the world. Arresting ten thousand protestors scares millions and will eventually turn toward popular rebellion or revolution, even the FSB GRU and Interior Ministry Police have their limits. It's unlikely ordinary Russians will tolerate Stalinist tactics of repression. What matters is that the West is careful and let this thing play out. What is unknown how humanity will react to the wholesale slaughter of Kyiv.
You always seem so positive about what will happen. I wish I could be so certain about what the future may hold.
Here are a couple of takeaways. Your comment regarding the hollowed-out US Army after Vietnam struck me. I recall a conversation with my father, a 33 year veteran and a Bird Colonel who fought in Bastogne with the 101st and again in Korea. I was a Captain, recently returned from Vietnam who had commanded a Combat Engineer company in Vietnam and was teaching at the Engineer School at Ft. Belvoir. I was considering resigning. He said to me, "My recommendation is that you get out. The military isn't the career it used to be. You will be happier as a civilian. Sort of proofs your comment. Even he was discouraged. It was just the beginning of the great resignation.
Secondly, the weather continues to turn on the Russians. Temperatures are down in the -20 degree range and all those conscripts driving those trucks that are running out of fuel, food and water, may not have much choice anymore. Either freeze or starve to death or walk away. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.
Thank you. We cannot find this type of detailed writing on Russia’s aggressions anywhere else and appreciate your work so much.
I haven't replied much recently to your posts, Lucian. Just too shocked and overwhelmed. Please write something about the first impeachment, would you? if you haven't (I can't keep up). And thank you for all these posts and using your experience and writing to help us understand what is happening.