I sure hope the muckety-mucks at the Pentagon are studying the ongoing war in Ukraine closely, because what they’re seeing daily should scare them shitless.
It's the same old story. Battlefield tactics drag behind technology. A particularly bloody example is World War l. Both sides had horse cavalry. These relics of the past were slaughtered by machine guns. The same butchery is happening now in Ukraine. History teaches us lessons. Unfortunately few learn from it.
War is increasingly pointless, Russia failed to learn from WWII, conquered nations don't stay conquered. What happens though when Putin's Puppet and the rest of his soviet apologists take office? America is abandoning it's leadership role, Europe will have to take over supporting Ukraine while the Puppet forces a peace that will save Russia from further embarrassment and will hopefully not cost Ukraine too much territory. We're the ones with the bleak future now though.
The orange menace has ruined the entire world - who knew one man could be this destructive for his own selfish ends. I am now officially in despair and doom.
“They say that if a butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazonian rain forest, it can change the weather half a world away. Chaos theory. What it means is that everything that happens in this moment is an accumulation of everything that’s come before it. Every breath. Every thought. There is no innocent action. Some actions end up having the force of a tempest. Their impact cannot be missed. Others are the blink of an eye. Passing by unnoticed. Perhaps only God knows which is which.
All I know today is that you can think that what you’ve done is only the flap of a butterfly wing, when it’s really a thunderclap. And both can result in a hurricane.”
Why do few learn from history? Is it because the importance of these history lessons are not taught and emphasized in meaningful ways? The history I remember was little more than memorizing the dates of events in order to pass a test.
I have been sending them $$ for years through Tim Snyder’s United24 organization, we have helped them buy early warning systems that tell them of drones that are on the way. There are all kinds of projects, from protecting and educating children to building their very successful sea drones, that you can be involved with. Think of Ukraine as we were defending our right to exist from the Crown, and we are the French and the Poles who came to our aid, we honor those people with statues and public spaces named in their honor centuries later. The political campaign is over, if you can help why not do it?
A couple of important caveats. One does not know Putin’s intent, either now or in the past. Russia is the only nation that has the ability to wipe out civilization other than the U.S., although China is getting there. It’s the old saw. How does one make love to a porcupine? Very carefully. Or kill it.
I dissent from the Republican establishment talking points you mention that Biden’s slow reaction to Russian aggression in arming Ukraine with sophisticated heavy weapons and long range missiles was a mistake. Biden’s first supreme responsibility was to avoid a direct exchange with Russia, that could lead to an out of control escalation and to a nuclear exchange. The Ukraine War is the first eyeball to eyeball confrontation with Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis . We already know from an after the event conference in 1989 in Havana of the lead participants in that Crisis that it was only dumb luck that prevented the use of a tactical nuclear weapon on a U.S. invasion fleet. We know that because the local Russian Commander said at the 1989 conference that he possessed and was authorized to use up to six tactical nuclear artillery shells on the invasion fleet! And would have used them if the U.S. has launch an invasion. . The former U.S. Secretary of Defense was shocked . Neither he nor President Kennedy knew that. It was doubtful that General Secretary Kruschev knew that. The Soviet Military didn’t tell him. Such are the misunderstandings that can led to a nuclear exchange.
So Biden took his damn time. He opted for a slow strangulation of the Russian economy and military to prevent Ukraine from losing the War but avoid a shock to Putin and his regime that would lead them to use a tactical nuke, with a high risk of escalation. It was a close call .
We know of one instance that SecDef Austin called his counterpart, the Russian Minister of Defense to warn him that U.S. Intelligence had intercepted electronic messages indicating an intent to use a tactical nuke in the event Russian forces were defeated or near defeat. And that if he used a nuclear weapon the U.S. Military would respond by using conventional forces to destroy the entire Russian Air Force and Navy .
Putin backed down but Ukraine did not receive the means to defeat the Russian Army in the field.
Biden conducted a Master Class in how to manage a crisis with a nuclear armed foe and defeat conventional aggression. And Lucian, you do a great job in describing it. Russia is bleeding both in KIA, MIA and critically wounded. As well as economically. Ukraine is winning by not losing. Russia is grasping at North Korea for reinforcements and becoming a dependent colony of China. Putin cannot last another year of this, much less win.
So what’s Trump going to do? He’s actually been handed l, by Biden, a strong position to demand a settlement on his terms : 1.) An Armistice in place along the lines of control. 2.) Security alliances with the U.S. and the NATO countries willing to do so. 3.) Ukraine to join the EU but not NATO for ten years. And 4.) permanent borders negotiated in a future Peace Treaty when Putin leaves the scene.
A nuclear escalation/extinction event has been avoided and Ukraine left intact to become rich and powerful in the future. And protected by an enforceable security treaty similar to our security treaty with Japan. That a little good news to end the week on.
Agree, no Western nation, including Western intel agencies, knows Putin's past, present, or future intentions. Those who claim they do are the same Ru experts who claimed Putin is a geopolitical genius rather than a rather unremarkable.
Agree, most don't consider the strategic implications of this conflict of avoiding direct confrontation including by a silly-stupid miscalculation and the srain on the Ru mil, society, economy, and Ru's other global adventures inc. SWA (Middle East) and Africa.
-Weapon systems: As you mentioned the CinC is responsible for our natsec and has alliance responsibilities as well as with partners. The weapons sent to Uk mil are ours. There is only so many in the US mil inventory. Drawing down using the Presidential Drawdown Authority must consider our national defense as well as for our allies and partners. No sensible CinC would draw down below set numbers of any weapons and expose the US and others to known foes. Procurement lead time to replace and/or upgrade or bring online the next GEN is a prime consideration. It ain't the dithering some make it out to be. It's simply a practical matter. One that DoD nor the WH needs to be broadcasting. They'd rather take the heat from armchair FOGOs for the appearance of slow walking.
-When an armchair FOGO says if only UK has this or this date Uk woulda' won by now is beyond wishful thinking to wet dreaming. A 950km front is the issue not targets deeper and deeper into Ru. A fifth-grader could look at a Uk_Ru map and notice how few rail lines and roadways there are along the 950kn front. And Ru mil is rail-centric meaning the cars must sit stationary longer than most due to the small number of trucks to distribute troops, equipment, weapons, ammo, food, medicines etc. The Ru resupply logistics is awful as revealed in the opening of the war and remains so.
-Uk Mil doesn't conscript the age group most needed in war, 18-25yr old. Is indefensible and unimaginable a nation fighting for its very existence would exempt that age range while conscripting into the 50+ age group. Age plays a major factor in the level of risk one can tolerate and for how long. Not at all suprised there hasn't been a single valid attempt counter-offensive along the 950km border and not surprised the reason given was gimmie gimmie gimmie more weapon systems. Have to fight the enemy in front of you, not the one hundreds of klicks away to dislodge them from your dirt.
-Casualties-Neither side announces them yet somehow a [s]think-tank can arrive at them? Casualties are but one unknown in this conflict. Uk doesn't allow embedded western journos and to the best of my knowledge, they don't allow their own. Western intel has a feel for how things are on the ground. If they were confident specific weapon systems would turn the tide, then the combined alliance would've delivered enough at the right time. Personally sick of Zelensky's public language directed at the very alliance keeping his white ass secure. He is at best an ingrate. Ours unfortunately. No way NATO would accept Uk in if Zelensky was still holding office. He has spat at NATO far too many times-in public no less.
-4th GEN warfare has been around since before the turn of the century. While major industrial companies kept going big more and more foes focused in on going smaller. DARPA long tried to get the US Mil to stop the bigger is better approach instead to focus on keeping war fighters safe from the weapons that kill them the most, develop non-lethal weaponry, and to look to miniaturization for mega-cities and other urban combat solutions. But nooooo
-Uk citizens in conjunction w/the Uk mil should be commended for their improv in developing theater specific weaponry. It wouldn't have advanced this far had the US-NATO-partners gave Zelensky everything he wanted and when. It's their dirt and it's their fight. And want it to stay that way.
You obviously are experienced in war. I generally agree but disagree in Zelensky. Unlike other leaders of threatened governments like most recently Afghanistan and Syria he stayed, inspired his troops and most importantly gave hope of victory to his fellow countrymen. He’s a modern Churchill and my hat is off to him. And if I were he I would have done the same as he has and never stopped, pleading for more and better arms until victory. Following in Churchill’s footsteps. You disparage him
as an ingrate. No he’s an international hero. A rare species that should be admired.
The media loves myth-making and loves tracking fiction's (literature) antagonist/protagonist, black hat/white hat, hero/villain, and so on.
Keep in mind US-NATO intekl was given to Zelensky weeks before the invasion including additional hand delivered by VP Harris. Zelensky?
Zelensky's publicly trashed the US-NATO while hundreds of 1000s of Ru mil, their equipment and weapons were sitting along the border. He had 2weeks to call up reserves and more importantly, 2weeks to clear cities, towns, and villages along the road routes into Uk. He did NOTHING.
Those civs killed in the opening of the invasion, wounded, kidnapped, tortured, and raped are all on his hands. As are those trapped inside a few major cities for months only to be killed and captured.
While credit must be given to the few in the Uk military who sacrificed their lives to slow the Ru mil advance, it was mostlt due to the Ru outrunning the supply line that set them up to be sitting ducks along key invasion routes.
Have no need to sift through all the spit Zelensky aimed at the US, NATO, and EU countries since before the invasion to this day. Nor re-up the YOUTUBE video of he and Trump and the UN where Zelensky agreed with everything Trump said sinking the first impeachment. Nor his public proclamations about working w/Trump going forward always in all ways sans the spit he has directed at the US-NATO and the EU. Finally, Zelensky has made no call for drafting 18-24 year olds while falsely claimed Ru had more troops inside Uk than he has.
Weapons are not autonomous. They need trained operators and trained repair and maintenance support.
US-NATO build the logistic network to get all types of weapons, ammo, ord, full weapon systems, medicines etc thru a choke point in Poland, then into Uk. People seem to overlook there hasn't been a single lost tranche. That's because US-NATO developed the logistic program for interior ingress and beyond in Uk.
Just as I mention how few rail and roads lead into Uk from Ru same is true from Poland. Yet the Ru AF could never find the supply lines because the west owns the night. Those weapon transfers have cancelled out the Ru AF throughout Uk where they once had the sky all to their self from the eastern border to the western border and everything in between. No matter what is transferred in Zelensky's public pronouncements it isn't enuff and always too late. Well give it back then instead of continuing to insist we'll do all the fighting BUT we want in to NATO now so we can claim Article 5 triggering a mil response to Ru invasion.
His refusal to allow western media to see what is happening inside Uk's combat theater and for NOT releasing casualty numbers while falsely claiming he knows Ru casualty numbers down to the man is ludicrous.
There is no excuse for failing to mount a counter-offensive in a few sectors and open up holes in Ru's defense. Instead he went inside Ru for Shock and Awe value. Same with tiny pin prick drones into Moscow. Good for media headlines while doing nothing for his own troops stuck along the front.
Churchill didn't leave Great Britain often when his country was attacked. Zelensky does the opposite. 20Jan is fast approaching.
Zelensky is no Churchill and more importantly Trump ain't no FDR and Putin isn't Peter the Great or Stalin. This is not going to end well for Uk or its good people.
You err by omission. China, France, United Kingdom each possess adequate nuclear weapons to individually initiate a global conflagration. India, Pakistan North Korea and definitely Israel also have nuclear weapon capabilities but, not being signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, their numbers and details are completely unknown.
You are right there are other nuclear stockpiles but none are sufficient to cause an Extinction Event. Russia and the U.S. each have a stockpile of about 5,000 nuclear and thermonuclear devices each. The devices that can cause Extinction of Civilization are thermonuclear or commonly referred to as Hydrogen Bombs, thousand of times more powerful than Hiroshima a Nagasaki. A rapid exchange of these devices would fry our atmosphere similar to the Dinosaur killing Asteroid impact 66 million years ago. None of the other nations come close to having stockpiles that could have that effect . China however is in the way. It’s very expensive. On the order of trillions of dollars. It’s also very dangerous for civilization . So my comment is based on those fears, not on the smaller stockpiles held by smaller nations.
Never evah assume an exchange would begin AND end with the top2. War is many things including being its own contagion. Nor focus simply on nukes. Chems and bacterial warfare are game-changers as well.
Edit icon: still flush right, now at message-top, on same line as your name. If icon is immediately below a dark dot, the dot belongs to the preceding comment.
I'm talking android phone browser duckduckgo—yes, browser (+ search engine). Maybe the substack app differs? The three-dot icon is so faint on my screen it's nearly invisible.
So what happens when Dumbass is president and refuses to send any more US weapons to Ukraine or wants to send these modern military weapons to Russia? Ukraine would be totally dependent on NATO.
Lucian, this is a very insightful and deeply disturbing column. Reading it, I couldn’t help picturing what it would be like if Trump himself ordered compliant MAGA service members to use [the not yet available but coming very soon] unmanned AI-directed drones to selectively obliterate Democrats, or more likely, if the white nationalist extremists who may have infiltrated the U.S. military went rogue, got hold of them, and started running their own private little civil war against the left, out ahead of even dRumpf’s worst impulses. Makes my longstanding dread of so many MAGAs owning AR15-style weapons seem quaint. Sorry for the really bad bedtime fantasy.
You can gain a little insight into the state of Russia by reading "The Vory", by Mark Galeotti. It's the story of the Russian mafia; it's creation under Stalin in the gulags and then transferred out into society and eventually into the modern-day oligarchy (Putin's reign) and global opportunities. Everyone and everything are on the take to and including the military, it's why half their shit (military hardware) doesn't work (graft and corruption). Maybe if the Russian population wakes up and takes Putin out things might change. Guess where we are headed, down the same path unless we wake up as well. They are proving war is stupid, and the only outcome is death for both sides fighting a senseless endeavor. The North Koreans are cannon fodder for Putin.
In 1963-4 I had a young associate professor, newly arrived from the USSR, who taught a new course on the USSR and how it functioned. His views were considered radical:
He said the individual states of the USSR were quite different from each other and would like to be independent from the USSR. The divide was so great that Soviet Army Divisions had to be carefully kept apart from each other; they didn't like each other. This professor's view was the opposite of the common view here of the USSR as monolithic and totally unified. So, I wasn't surprised when after 1989 the USSR flew apart and got whittled down to 140,000,000 people.
P.S. The professor got a visa to USA when Nikita Khrushchev allowed Jewish people to leave the country. His family was from Odessa, where his grandfather was a famous architect. In the main plaza of Odessa most of his family was executed by the Nazis, 15,000.
Interesting to hear your perspective. Reminds me of the Last Samurai or the Clone Wars (terrible sequel)...and now Ron DiSantas may be Defense Secy is better than Hesegeth? we are in unsettling times indeed. Where are our Few Good Men to Save the Day? Hopefully ready to resist extermination orders.
I'm trying to imagine how different army life would have been for us back in 1951-53 if this technology had existed back then, I was in the British army - the infantry, and we were doing e 32 weeks training for Korea, but at the last minute we were sent to Egypt, then Jordan, then Germany. But several weeks of the 32 were spent at Edinburgh Castle training with a Scottish regiment and during maneuvers there'd always be a piper playing the bagpipes as we practiced bayonet charges, etc., as jt was tradition back then to have pipers play in the heat of battle. as the sound of the pipes really stirred the blood. Good thing though no such thing as drones, as the pipers would have been very vivid targets, im n their kilts and all the regalia. but imagine playing the bagpipes with bullets flying around.
A few of us were lucky though we got to be in the Edinburgh Festival for six weeks and were excused all duties. We played medieval soldiers :) By the I don't know if it's different now but it was against army regulations to wear anything under the kilt. It sounds really funny but when the Scots left the barracks to go out on the town there was a mirror on the ground outside the guardhouse to make sure they all abided by the dress code :)
This video is of the International Performers at the annual Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo:
Thank you daien, yes, with all us old folk a lot of memories over the years, After a couple of tears home I got restless again and went out to South Africa to work in the gold mines, then from there to Rhodesia and eventually here in LA. 23 years with the phone company, almost as long as a private driver for a wealthy businessman - a friend of the Reagan crowd, Walter Annenberg and others. Then about 11 years in Hollywood as an extra/actor got to meet and work with some really interesting people. like Ernest Borgnine, Arnold Palmer, Camila Cabello, Jerry Lewis, Anna Kendrick, Jennifer Grey, Rhea Seehorn etc., - some names famous. some not. Chatted briefly with Burt Lancaster and Gregory Peck and .Kirk Douglas but not on sets. I did have a nice conversation with Anthony Hopkins even though I was only an extra in Hitchcock. That is how nice he was: how many big stars do that? I knew Eddie Albert fairly well as he was a neighbor of someone I worked for. part time, also a friend of another lady I knew. Her friend, Eva Gabor was very nice as was Jonathan Winters who I met briefly. (I mention all this not to name drop,but to show how in old age a person needs to look for stimulating stuff to do. To sit around bored is fatal - a guarantee that an early death is likely. I read once that when a person no longer feels useful in some way to society they don't last long after retirement. I just finished a script: The Wickedest Meanest Witch of Oz. , But to sell it a real challenge :)
Best luck with that script! You've certainly kept busy all these years. You should compare notes with my nextdoor neighbor most of my life, a British Broadway actress who also had a small speaking part in the "Dog Day Afternoon" movie. She was born to play witchy parts. At 103 yo, Beulah is busy as ever. I don't know if she's online. We still exchange hand-written notes under our doors.
Thank You Again LT Sir, for Your depth of investigative reporting, tenacious barking of what should be obvious truth. And We all hunger for the truth.
I consider how far the online support of publishing sane (and insane) facts has evolved in the 9-10 years since His Orangeness stormed the National life.
In 2016, November I recall, personally I had no online forums to source the truth.
Today I subscribe to LT IV SubStack, Joyce Vance SubStack, Harry Litman Talking Feds, Brian Tyler Cohen & Glenn Kirschner. Straight Talk, so that I stay informed to make wise choices in My weary brain. I was naked of these voices. Now I'm clothed and sane, while the Emperor parades around naked.
A person cannot hold onto anger and disbelief for very long. It's all adrenaline.
Like holding a fist tightly, it's exhausting.
So, I choose to turn it down, in my own life, by speaking and writing freely, w/o fear or intimidation. I know what a bully is, I've met plenty in My time. They a weak, inferiority driven, imposter syndrome w/o knowing it cowards.
Bullies are self defeating. Hitler, Mussolini, Rudy Giuliani, Putin, Kim Jong-Il....tRump. Doomed to Fail.
It's the same old story. Battlefield tactics drag behind technology. A particularly bloody example is World War l. Both sides had horse cavalry. These relics of the past were slaughtered by machine guns. The same butchery is happening now in Ukraine. History teaches us lessons. Unfortunately few learn from it.
War is increasingly pointless, Russia failed to learn from WWII, conquered nations don't stay conquered. What happens though when Putin's Puppet and the rest of his soviet apologists take office? America is abandoning it's leadership role, Europe will have to take over supporting Ukraine while the Puppet forces a peace that will save Russia from further embarrassment and will hopefully not cost Ukraine too much territory. We're the ones with the bleak future now though.
The orange menace has ruined the entire world - who knew one man could be this destructive for his own selfish ends. I am now officially in despair and doom.
I so agree.. one man opened Pandora’s Box..
“They say that if a butterfly flaps its wings in the Amazonian rain forest, it can change the weather half a world away. Chaos theory. What it means is that everything that happens in this moment is an accumulation of everything that’s come before it. Every breath. Every thought. There is no innocent action. Some actions end up having the force of a tempest. Their impact cannot be missed. Others are the blink of an eye. Passing by unnoticed. Perhaps only God knows which is which.
All I know today is that you can think that what you’ve done is only the flap of a butterfly wing, when it’s really a thunderclap. And both can result in a hurricane.”
― Catherine McKenzie, Fractured
Why do few learn from history? Is it because the importance of these history lessons are not taught and emphasized in meaningful ways? The history I remember was little more than memorizing the dates of events in order to pass a test.
Doing the same thing over and over again with the same results! INSANITY!
We can't abandon Ukraine.
I have been sending them $$ for years through Tim Snyder’s United24 organization, we have helped them buy early warning systems that tell them of drones that are on the way. There are all kinds of projects, from protecting and educating children to building their very successful sea drones, that you can be involved with. Think of Ukraine as we were defending our right to exist from the Crown, and we are the French and the Poles who came to our aid, we honor those people with statues and public spaces named in their honor centuries later. The political campaign is over, if you can help why not do it?
I've enthusiastically contributed to the sea drone program.
A couple of important caveats. One does not know Putin’s intent, either now or in the past. Russia is the only nation that has the ability to wipe out civilization other than the U.S., although China is getting there. It’s the old saw. How does one make love to a porcupine? Very carefully. Or kill it.
I dissent from the Republican establishment talking points you mention that Biden’s slow reaction to Russian aggression in arming Ukraine with sophisticated heavy weapons and long range missiles was a mistake. Biden’s first supreme responsibility was to avoid a direct exchange with Russia, that could lead to an out of control escalation and to a nuclear exchange. The Ukraine War is the first eyeball to eyeball confrontation with Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis . We already know from an after the event conference in 1989 in Havana of the lead participants in that Crisis that it was only dumb luck that prevented the use of a tactical nuclear weapon on a U.S. invasion fleet. We know that because the local Russian Commander said at the 1989 conference that he possessed and was authorized to use up to six tactical nuclear artillery shells on the invasion fleet! And would have used them if the U.S. has launch an invasion. . The former U.S. Secretary of Defense was shocked . Neither he nor President Kennedy knew that. It was doubtful that General Secretary Kruschev knew that. The Soviet Military didn’t tell him. Such are the misunderstandings that can led to a nuclear exchange.
So Biden took his damn time. He opted for a slow strangulation of the Russian economy and military to prevent Ukraine from losing the War but avoid a shock to Putin and his regime that would lead them to use a tactical nuke, with a high risk of escalation. It was a close call .
We know of one instance that SecDef Austin called his counterpart, the Russian Minister of Defense to warn him that U.S. Intelligence had intercepted electronic messages indicating an intent to use a tactical nuke in the event Russian forces were defeated or near defeat. And that if he used a nuclear weapon the U.S. Military would respond by using conventional forces to destroy the entire Russian Air Force and Navy .
Putin backed down but Ukraine did not receive the means to defeat the Russian Army in the field.
Biden conducted a Master Class in how to manage a crisis with a nuclear armed foe and defeat conventional aggression. And Lucian, you do a great job in describing it. Russia is bleeding both in KIA, MIA and critically wounded. As well as economically. Ukraine is winning by not losing. Russia is grasping at North Korea for reinforcements and becoming a dependent colony of China. Putin cannot last another year of this, much less win.
So what’s Trump going to do? He’s actually been handed l, by Biden, a strong position to demand a settlement on his terms : 1.) An Armistice in place along the lines of control. 2.) Security alliances with the U.S. and the NATO countries willing to do so. 3.) Ukraine to join the EU but not NATO for ten years. And 4.) permanent borders negotiated in a future Peace Treaty when Putin leaves the scene.
A nuclear escalation/extinction event has been avoided and Ukraine left intact to become rich and powerful in the future. And protected by an enforceable security treaty similar to our security treaty with Japan. That a little good news to end the week on.
Agree, no Western nation, including Western intel agencies, knows Putin's past, present, or future intentions. Those who claim they do are the same Ru experts who claimed Putin is a geopolitical genius rather than a rather unremarkable.
Agree, most don't consider the strategic implications of this conflict of avoiding direct confrontation including by a silly-stupid miscalculation and the srain on the Ru mil, society, economy, and Ru's other global adventures inc. SWA (Middle East) and Africa.
-Weapon systems: As you mentioned the CinC is responsible for our natsec and has alliance responsibilities as well as with partners. The weapons sent to Uk mil are ours. There is only so many in the US mil inventory. Drawing down using the Presidential Drawdown Authority must consider our national defense as well as for our allies and partners. No sensible CinC would draw down below set numbers of any weapons and expose the US and others to known foes. Procurement lead time to replace and/or upgrade or bring online the next GEN is a prime consideration. It ain't the dithering some make it out to be. It's simply a practical matter. One that DoD nor the WH needs to be broadcasting. They'd rather take the heat from armchair FOGOs for the appearance of slow walking.
-When an armchair FOGO says if only UK has this or this date Uk woulda' won by now is beyond wishful thinking to wet dreaming. A 950km front is the issue not targets deeper and deeper into Ru. A fifth-grader could look at a Uk_Ru map and notice how few rail lines and roadways there are along the 950kn front. And Ru mil is rail-centric meaning the cars must sit stationary longer than most due to the small number of trucks to distribute troops, equipment, weapons, ammo, food, medicines etc. The Ru resupply logistics is awful as revealed in the opening of the war and remains so.
-Uk Mil doesn't conscript the age group most needed in war, 18-25yr old. Is indefensible and unimaginable a nation fighting for its very existence would exempt that age range while conscripting into the 50+ age group. Age plays a major factor in the level of risk one can tolerate and for how long. Not at all suprised there hasn't been a single valid attempt counter-offensive along the 950km border and not surprised the reason given was gimmie gimmie gimmie more weapon systems. Have to fight the enemy in front of you, not the one hundreds of klicks away to dislodge them from your dirt.
-Casualties-Neither side announces them yet somehow a [s]think-tank can arrive at them? Casualties are but one unknown in this conflict. Uk doesn't allow embedded western journos and to the best of my knowledge, they don't allow their own. Western intel has a feel for how things are on the ground. If they were confident specific weapon systems would turn the tide, then the combined alliance would've delivered enough at the right time. Personally sick of Zelensky's public language directed at the very alliance keeping his white ass secure. He is at best an ingrate. Ours unfortunately. No way NATO would accept Uk in if Zelensky was still holding office. He has spat at NATO far too many times-in public no less.
-4th GEN warfare has been around since before the turn of the century. While major industrial companies kept going big more and more foes focused in on going smaller. DARPA long tried to get the US Mil to stop the bigger is better approach instead to focus on keeping war fighters safe from the weapons that kill them the most, develop non-lethal weaponry, and to look to miniaturization for mega-cities and other urban combat solutions. But nooooo
-Uk citizens in conjunction w/the Uk mil should be commended for their improv in developing theater specific weaponry. It wouldn't have advanced this far had the US-NATO-partners gave Zelensky everything he wanted and when. It's their dirt and it's their fight. And want it to stay that way.
You obviously are experienced in war. I generally agree but disagree in Zelensky. Unlike other leaders of threatened governments like most recently Afghanistan and Syria he stayed, inspired his troops and most importantly gave hope of victory to his fellow countrymen. He’s a modern Churchill and my hat is off to him. And if I were he I would have done the same as he has and never stopped, pleading for more and better arms until victory. Following in Churchill’s footsteps. You disparage him
as an ingrate. No he’s an international hero. A rare species that should be admired.
The media loves myth-making and loves tracking fiction's (literature) antagonist/protagonist, black hat/white hat, hero/villain, and so on.
Keep in mind US-NATO intekl was given to Zelensky weeks before the invasion including additional hand delivered by VP Harris. Zelensky?
Zelensky's publicly trashed the US-NATO while hundreds of 1000s of Ru mil, their equipment and weapons were sitting along the border. He had 2weeks to call up reserves and more importantly, 2weeks to clear cities, towns, and villages along the road routes into Uk. He did NOTHING.
Those civs killed in the opening of the invasion, wounded, kidnapped, tortured, and raped are all on his hands. As are those trapped inside a few major cities for months only to be killed and captured.
While credit must be given to the few in the Uk military who sacrificed their lives to slow the Ru mil advance, it was mostlt due to the Ru outrunning the supply line that set them up to be sitting ducks along key invasion routes.
Have no need to sift through all the spit Zelensky aimed at the US, NATO, and EU countries since before the invasion to this day. Nor re-up the YOUTUBE video of he and Trump and the UN where Zelensky agreed with everything Trump said sinking the first impeachment. Nor his public proclamations about working w/Trump going forward always in all ways sans the spit he has directed at the US-NATO and the EU. Finally, Zelensky has made no call for drafting 18-24 year olds while falsely claimed Ru had more troops inside Uk than he has.
Weapons are not autonomous. They need trained operators and trained repair and maintenance support.
US-NATO build the logistic network to get all types of weapons, ammo, ord, full weapon systems, medicines etc thru a choke point in Poland, then into Uk. People seem to overlook there hasn't been a single lost tranche. That's because US-NATO developed the logistic program for interior ingress and beyond in Uk.
Just as I mention how few rail and roads lead into Uk from Ru same is true from Poland. Yet the Ru AF could never find the supply lines because the west owns the night. Those weapon transfers have cancelled out the Ru AF throughout Uk where they once had the sky all to their self from the eastern border to the western border and everything in between. No matter what is transferred in Zelensky's public pronouncements it isn't enuff and always too late. Well give it back then instead of continuing to insist we'll do all the fighting BUT we want in to NATO now so we can claim Article 5 triggering a mil response to Ru invasion.
His refusal to allow western media to see what is happening inside Uk's combat theater and for NOT releasing casualty numbers while falsely claiming he knows Ru casualty numbers down to the man is ludicrous.
There is no excuse for failing to mount a counter-offensive in a few sectors and open up holes in Ru's defense. Instead he went inside Ru for Shock and Awe value. Same with tiny pin prick drones into Moscow. Good for media headlines while doing nothing for his own troops stuck along the front.
Churchill didn't leave Great Britain often when his country was attacked. Zelensky does the opposite. 20Jan is fast approaching.
Zelensky is no Churchill and more importantly Trump ain't no FDR and Putin isn't Peter the Great or Stalin. This is not going to end well for Uk or its good people.
You err by omission. China, France, United Kingdom each possess adequate nuclear weapons to individually initiate a global conflagration. India, Pakistan North Korea and definitely Israel also have nuclear weapon capabilities but, not being signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, their numbers and details are completely unknown.
You are right there are other nuclear stockpiles but none are sufficient to cause an Extinction Event. Russia and the U.S. each have a stockpile of about 5,000 nuclear and thermonuclear devices each. The devices that can cause Extinction of Civilization are thermonuclear or commonly referred to as Hydrogen Bombs, thousand of times more powerful than Hiroshima a Nagasaki. A rapid exchange of these devices would fry our atmosphere similar to the Dinosaur killing Asteroid impact 66 million years ago. None of the other nations come close to having stockpiles that could have that effect . China however is in the way. It’s very expensive. On the order of trillions of dollars. It’s also very dangerous for civilization . So my comment is based on those fears, not on the smaller stockpiles held by smaller nations.
Never evah assume an exchange would begin AND end with the top2. War is many things including being its own contagion. Nor focus simply on nukes. Chems and bacterial warfare are game-changers as well.
No we just need to stop Congress from building more tanks, troop carriers, c130s, $50M fighter jets... Etc. not gonna hold my breath
Not sure where my edit button went that should read "now we just need..."
Edit icon: still flush right, now at message-top, on same line as your name. If icon is immediately below a dark dot, the dot belongs to the preceding comment.
I guess my version of Android on my phone doesn't show that for some reason. Thx for the tip will keep an eye out for a change to my view
I'm talking android phone browser duckduckgo—yes, browser (+ search engine). Maybe the substack app differs? The three-dot icon is so faint on my screen it's nearly invisible.
Ya this is in substack app
Have never tried it, so I'm out of advice. :-(
We’ve seen this before and if sanity isn’t actively supported as a desirable human trait our children will see it again..
Fascinating and educational writing, Lucien, grateful.
So what happens when Dumbass is president and refuses to send any more US weapons to Ukraine or wants to send these modern military weapons to Russia? Ukraine would be totally dependent on NATO.
Ukraine also makes its own drones, though. But Trump is deranged enough to endanger Ukraine to please his master, Putin.
Made me sick today to see Drumpf putting his hand on Zelensky's shoulder, as if to say, we're behind you my friend. What BS!
Dumbass is such a phony.
I can't wait for Sunday, Lucian. We need your stories more than ever!
Lucian, this is a very insightful and deeply disturbing column. Reading it, I couldn’t help picturing what it would be like if Trump himself ordered compliant MAGA service members to use [the not yet available but coming very soon] unmanned AI-directed drones to selectively obliterate Democrats, or more likely, if the white nationalist extremists who may have infiltrated the U.S. military went rogue, got hold of them, and started running their own private little civil war against the left, out ahead of even dRumpf’s worst impulses. Makes my longstanding dread of so many MAGAs owning AR15-style weapons seem quaint. Sorry for the really bad bedtime fantasy.
War is hell on Earth. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!
You can gain a little insight into the state of Russia by reading "The Vory", by Mark Galeotti. It's the story of the Russian mafia; it's creation under Stalin in the gulags and then transferred out into society and eventually into the modern-day oligarchy (Putin's reign) and global opportunities. Everyone and everything are on the take to and including the military, it's why half their shit (military hardware) doesn't work (graft and corruption). Maybe if the Russian population wakes up and takes Putin out things might change. Guess where we are headed, down the same path unless we wake up as well. They are proving war is stupid, and the only outcome is death for both sides fighting a senseless endeavor. The North Koreans are cannon fodder for Putin.
In 1963-4 I had a young associate professor, newly arrived from the USSR, who taught a new course on the USSR and how it functioned. His views were considered radical:
He said the individual states of the USSR were quite different from each other and would like to be independent from the USSR. The divide was so great that Soviet Army Divisions had to be carefully kept apart from each other; they didn't like each other. This professor's view was the opposite of the common view here of the USSR as monolithic and totally unified. So, I wasn't surprised when after 1989 the USSR flew apart and got whittled down to 140,000,000 people.
P.S. The professor got a visa to USA when Nikita Khrushchev allowed Jewish people to leave the country. His family was from Odessa, where his grandfather was a famous architect. In the main plaza of Odessa most of his family was executed by the Nazis, 15,000.
Interesting to hear your perspective. Reminds me of the Last Samurai or the Clone Wars (terrible sequel)...and now Ron DiSantas may be Defense Secy is better than Hesegeth? we are in unsettling times indeed. Where are our Few Good Men to Save the Day? Hopefully ready to resist extermination orders.
Another great sitrep. Thanks.
Just an overall comment from this non-technical, non-military reader. Thanks for this totally understandable newsletter, Lucian.
Yes—i felt, Finally, a weapons explainer so primitive even I can read to the end and understand.
I'm trying to imagine how different army life would have been for us back in 1951-53 if this technology had existed back then, I was in the British army - the infantry, and we were doing e 32 weeks training for Korea, but at the last minute we were sent to Egypt, then Jordan, then Germany. But several weeks of the 32 were spent at Edinburgh Castle training with a Scottish regiment and during maneuvers there'd always be a piper playing the bagpipes as we practiced bayonet charges, etc., as jt was tradition back then to have pipers play in the heat of battle. as the sound of the pipes really stirred the blood. Good thing though no such thing as drones, as the pipers would have been very vivid targets, im n their kilts and all the regalia. but imagine playing the bagpipes with bullets flying around.
A few of us were lucky though we got to be in the Edinburgh Festival for six weeks and were excused all duties. We played medieval soldiers :) By the I don't know if it's different now but it was against army regulations to wear anything under the kilt. It sounds really funny but when the Scots left the barracks to go out on the town there was a mirror on the ground outside the guardhouse to make sure they all abided by the dress code :)
This video is of the International Performers at the annual Royal Edinburgh Military Tattoo:
https://youtu.be/oBYVmnMFMtA
Fascinating memories, absolutely awesome video, Robert!
Thank you daien, yes, with all us old folk a lot of memories over the years, After a couple of tears home I got restless again and went out to South Africa to work in the gold mines, then from there to Rhodesia and eventually here in LA. 23 years with the phone company, almost as long as a private driver for a wealthy businessman - a friend of the Reagan crowd, Walter Annenberg and others. Then about 11 years in Hollywood as an extra/actor got to meet and work with some really interesting people. like Ernest Borgnine, Arnold Palmer, Camila Cabello, Jerry Lewis, Anna Kendrick, Jennifer Grey, Rhea Seehorn etc., - some names famous. some not. Chatted briefly with Burt Lancaster and Gregory Peck and .Kirk Douglas but not on sets. I did have a nice conversation with Anthony Hopkins even though I was only an extra in Hitchcock. That is how nice he was: how many big stars do that? I knew Eddie Albert fairly well as he was a neighbor of someone I worked for. part time, also a friend of another lady I knew. Her friend, Eva Gabor was very nice as was Jonathan Winters who I met briefly. (I mention all this not to name drop,but to show how in old age a person needs to look for stimulating stuff to do. To sit around bored is fatal - a guarantee that an early death is likely. I read once that when a person no longer feels useful in some way to society they don't last long after retirement. I just finished a script: The Wickedest Meanest Witch of Oz. , But to sell it a real challenge :)
Best luck with that script! You've certainly kept busy all these years. You should compare notes with my nextdoor neighbor most of my life, a British Broadway actress who also had a small speaking part in the "Dog Day Afternoon" movie. She was born to play witchy parts. At 103 yo, Beulah is busy as ever. I don't know if she's online. We still exchange hand-written notes under our doors.
Spot on.
"They Got Reigion Fast." Sums it all up.
Thank You Again LT Sir, for Your depth of investigative reporting, tenacious barking of what should be obvious truth. And We all hunger for the truth.
I consider how far the online support of publishing sane (and insane) facts has evolved in the 9-10 years since His Orangeness stormed the National life.
In 2016, November I recall, personally I had no online forums to source the truth.
Today I subscribe to LT IV SubStack, Joyce Vance SubStack, Harry Litman Talking Feds, Brian Tyler Cohen & Glenn Kirschner. Straight Talk, so that I stay informed to make wise choices in My weary brain. I was naked of these voices. Now I'm clothed and sane, while the Emperor parades around naked.
A person cannot hold onto anger and disbelief for very long. It's all adrenaline.
Like holding a fist tightly, it's exhausting.
So, I choose to turn it down, in my own life, by speaking and writing freely, w/o fear or intimidation. I know what a bully is, I've met plenty in My time. They a weak, inferiority driven, imposter syndrome w/o knowing it cowards.
Bullies are self defeating. Hitler, Mussolini, Rudy Giuliani, Putin, Kim Jong-Il....tRump. Doomed to Fail.
My Sincere Thanks LT,for Your Efforts,
Alan breathing easier, just South of Boston