There have been lots of headlines this week as we approach the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Most of them have focused on the static 600 mile front line that runs from the Russian border near Kupyansk in Ukraine’s north to Kherson in the south.
My son, now a US Army Major, said as a newly minted 2nd Lt commanding a platoon, he could always pick out the USMA grads by their obvious intellect, by their insights.
Longing to live in a coastal climate warmer than the Northeast's and less deSanctified than the Southeast, I think Guantanamo sounds pretty agreeable. Since everyone wants the U.S. out of Guantanamo anyway, I propose building a supermax in interior Alaska—not too far from Siberia—as a multiyear vacation destination for traitors like Gosar.
Agreed, Paul Gosar is a pinhead, and he's not the only elected Republican pinhead in Arizona, but "red state hellholes" don't generally elect Democratic governors and secretaries of state. Just sayin' . . .
That works better -- and could also apply to the NW GA district "represented" (so to speak) by her who shall not be named. And a few others. What those calling for secession or separation don't realize is that virtually no state is solid red, and the most productive parts of so-called red states are generally pretty blue or at least purple.
The reality of this is that had Putin’s wish come true last year, there would be no Ukraine today. We MUST support their effort no matter what griping comes from the Repugnicans.
The idea that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping could form a working alliance in which China supplies arms to Russia is highly problematic. Witness what happened the last time widely separated dictators got together to oppose the Western Alliance. At the outset of World War II, Germany had allied itself with fascist Italy and Imperial Japan. Adolf Hitler's so-called 'Pact of Steel' with Italian dictator Benito Mussolini turned out to be deadweight lead. Germany's alliance with Japan was utterly incapable of fulfillment for the simple reason that neither could provide the other with logistical or political support. Nazi Germany's erstwhile allies turned out to be a collection of renegades and unstable regimes in eastern and southern Europe, and in the Balkans, with the possible exception of Finland, whose hatred of the Soviet Union made it a useful ally against his former colonizer to the east.
Russia and China are natural adversaries that share a tense border along the Amur River in eastern Siberia. Russia has an army that is basically demoralized, beaten, and incapable of strategic thinking and planning. That's been obvious for the past year with Russia's abysmal failure to conquer Ukraine. China has no allies in its immediate neighborhood, and most countries surrounding China have nationalistic hatreds of China's Imperial history of claims to suzerainty in Southeast Asia. China's economy is effectively in freefall, and whatever foreign exchange it possesses is largely in US dollar-denominated securities. That puts the Chinese government in the stranglehold of the United States Treasury takes retaliatory action against China for providing arms and military matériel to Russia. China's domestic economy is faltering badly, and whatever other foreign exchange it hopes to gain must come from foreign trade, a logistical chain that is easily interrupted if China finds itself in conflict, cold or hot, with members of the NATO alliance. Xi's China is a supplier of consumer goods to the outside world; and from a financial standpoint, she is a creditor whose access to new foreign exchange is largely dependent upon China's ability to maintain commercial goodwill and trading relations with the rest of the world. China has the trappings of a modern military establishment, but this is a military establishment that has not been fielded in a real war since the Korean Conflict between June 1950 and July 1953. During that period of time, the People's Liberation Army suffered horrific casualties at the hands of the American-led United Nations forces. In a real conflict, the PLA could prove to be as much of a paper tiger as Vladimir Putin's 'Special Military Operation' is currently experiencing in Ukraine. Our recent experience with China literally floating a high altitude balloon equipped with intelligence-gathering sensors hanging from its bottoms by cables suggests a technology level possessed by China's military establishment that is 50 years behind what the United States and NATO have been fielding against Russia over the past year. The United States-led economic sanctions against Russia have to most observers led to conclusions that Russia's industrial capability has been severely degraded. China's ability to engage in protracted land warfare has not been tested since the Chinese Civil War ended in the PLA's ultimate victory in 1949. China's economic focus on funding and constructing infrastructure in southern Africa has no useful analog in the manufacture of military and war fighting goods. Between the end of the Korean War and the present time, American military production has gone through five, six, seven generations of new weaponry, and more importantly, the knowledge that soldiers need to use, operate and fight with that advanced weaponry that China, simply by virtue of its bystander status, simply does not have, at least in no great abundance. Russia, by contrast, would have been expected to have decades-worth of practical military experience stemming from the Bolshevik defeat of Imperial Russia, through the Russian Civil War of 1919 through 1923, the run up to World War II, and their Great Patriotic War against Germany between June 1941 and May 1945. Beyond that, the Red Army was essentially an army of occupation and exploitation, adept at fighting small local wars such as its eventual conquest of Chechnya. But when Russia invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s, all of its hardware and sophisticated weaponry went for naught, eventually leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, simply because they could not defeat a ragtag guerrilla army that was materially supported by the United States.
China has not yet had that level of experience in recent warfare, even as it led to Russia's defeat and withdrawal from Afghanistan. The United States suffered similar frustration, not from military defeat, but rather because the political objectives that the United States set for itself were impossible of being realized. United States was strong enough to fight this war indefinitely, but to no principled purpose. We left because we didn't belong there, where our mantra of nation building, attempted and failed in Iraq, proved equally incapable of fruition in Afghanistan. We left because the imperialists in our midst lost their argument at the polls. But, to our credit, when we left Afghanistan, we brought along tens of thousands of Afghans who wanted to leave Afghanistan with us to start their lives anew here in America. No one in Russia can make that claim; unlikely as not, very few Chinese nationals, if given the choice, would prefer to remain in China, given the number of Chinese who have opted to immigrate to the United States, despite her history of anti-Chinese/Asian racism, language barriers, and the difficulty of transplanting oneself and one's family to a new and unfamiliar country. To Ukrainians, America represents the golden land of opportunity to live in freedom and dignity. That is why they are fighting so hard to maintain their own country against the Russian onslaught. We identify with Ukraine. Large numbers of native-born Americans trace our ancestry to Ukraine, whether it was governed by Imperial Russia, or the Soviet Union. Here in Sacramento, California, there is a large and vibrant Ukrainian community living side-by-side with everybody else, comprised of Hispanic people from Central America and Mexico, people of Vietnamese and South Korean heritage, people of Chinese heritage, and at least another dozen places around the world. Ukrainians identify with us, and the political and cultural freedoms that America represents. That is a powerful incentive on the part of both sides to support and defend Ukraine's freedom from domination by Russia. Russian suzerainty for Ukraine ceased when the Soviet Union dissolved. Nothing that Vladimir Putin can say will undo that reality. Russia cannot defeat militarily and Ukraine that is prepared to fight on terms of parity in terms of military equipment and national capability. China can do nothing to change that equation.
In all likelihood, Xi Jinping cannot afford to give Vladimir Putin a blank check in Putin's failing effort to suppress Ukrainian national identity. Whatever animosity exists between China and the United States over trade and national ambition, China lacks the wherewithal to go head-to-head with United States either economically or militarily. Xi has too many economic problems already to open up a bottomless money pit to support Vladimir Putin; and, as I said above, China and Russia have an uneasy border at the Amur River. China and Russia could just as easily be sworn enemies as wartime allies. Both Xi and Putin are maximalists in terms of their national ambitions, and neither would willingly give ground to the other if it allowed the other party to get ahead. China, arguably, is on the rise; Russia, by contrast, is on the decline. The evidence is everywhere to see. There is no reason to suppose that Xi would willingly give either helping hand or a leg up to someone who could be his sworn enemy the day after tomorrow. As the saying goes, 'My enemy's enemy is my friend'. What goes around comes around. Neither of those two dictators has any reason to trust the other, regardless of the fact that their antipathy towards the United States of America is palpable and enduring.
The Japanese told hitler they would attack America not Russia. Hitler thought that was fine. With in a month the German army was defeated in front of Moscow by the Siberian army that didn’t have to face Japan. Both countries were also at war with America.
The danger to Russia is China taking Siberia. China has claims on all its neighbours including Russia.
China allowed North Korea to build nukes and missiles even though Beijing is closer than Tokyo. Autocrats are cruel not smart.
Actually, the Japanese never made that commitment to Germany. The message was implicit in information conveyed to Stalin by a Russian spy, Richard Sorge who was soon thereafter caught and executed by the Japanese. The Japanese army that occupied Manchuko, in Manchuria was in no condition to fight in August 1945. A Russian army swept them away in a matter of days between August 8 and 15,the day that Japan sued for peace. By then the Japanese home islands were devastated, and devoid of aerial and naval assets. Japan had basically lost the war a year earlier with defeats in the Mariana Islands in June 1944 and five months later, at Leyte Gulf, in the Philippines.
Thank You Very Much Arthur! The best summary I have read (ever) on this topic. May I share? And thank you, too, for a word new to me:
Suzerainty (countable and uncountable, plural suzerainties): A relation between states in which a subservient nation has its own government, but is unable to take international action independent of the superior state; a similar relationship between other entities. quotations ▼ The status or power of a suzerain.
Russia is rapidly running out of conscripts (mostly incompetent as well). Soon the elderly will be sent to the front. Lack of weapons and a will of the people for peace might push him off the edge. In an act of sheer lunacy, he may escalate with nuclear capability. Had Hitler nuclear weapons, he would have used them because he too was a lunatic.
Nuclear weapons are political. Nobody has used them since 1945. Putin knows that a NATO Response could mean the end of Russia as we know it. Putin's own people might get rid of him. Putin has used bullying and threats to soften his opposition, but the West has nuclear weapons that can destroy him too. He's happy to spend Russian lives, but I'm doubtful that he's willing to risk everything on Ukraine. Bullies are cowards at heart
It's almost unbelievable that this travesty happened in the first place and even more unreal that a year later it's still going on
If Putey is having to conscript even more troops to replace the ones he's already wasted, is it possible that, realizing they are being sent to get slaughtered, they will turn on their master's and rebel? Just a thought....
If you walk around Petersburg and Moscow, you immediately notice Caddies, Chevys and Fords, along with the more expected Mercedes, BMW and Toyotas. After a year of being cut off from spare parts suppliers thanks to the embargo, stocks have to be running low. As cars and trucks (and the Sapsan bullet train linking Petersburg and Moscow was made by Siemens) begun to break down, mobility inside Russia itself is going decrease, perhaps by a large measure. Ironically, Russia is one of the few places in Europe where you see a lot of American cars.
Edward: great point. Let’s give Ukraine what it needs to keep up the fight and then at some point, the Russian war machine grinds to a halt due to lousy maintenance and a lack of parts and a poor industrial base to replace anything.
An adroit wrap up, for which Mr. T. is uniquely qualified. As for "Putin’s generals and his intelligence services had assured him that Kyiv would fall in five days," all I can think of is: "Where are they now?"
Are they the same generals who told Biden that Afghanistan could hold for a while. Just as bad, but in a democracy you blame Biden not the true architect.
I don’t read everything that is being published about this slaughter since so much of it is incomprehensible argy-bargy about military tactics and operations. Those are things that Lucian understands very well, and l look forward to reading anything he writes about that because it’s understandable and insightful. What I have concluded is that the smarter of the Russian conscripts manage to get themselves captured by the Ukrainians as soon as they’re sent into the meat grinder. That way they can survive. Wave after wave of Russians are being sacrificed mindlessly because that’s the only thing the high command knows how to do. I’m not wishing for the Russians to smarten up, and get their act together. Far from it, but I would hope the conscripts would rebel, kill their officers as necessary, and then surrender. We don’t hear much about Ukrainian casualties, but they have to be substantial. Ukraine doesn’t have a big population, compared to Russia, that can supply endless man power. The Russians don’t care how many of their own get killed, and that may be a winning tactic if it goes on long enough. Giving Ukraine what they need to deliver knockout blows to the Russian has to be the way to end this. A years long stalemate can’t be acceptable to the rest of the world. Much of Ukraine is already rubble. Something dramatic has to happen or else Ukraine will be a total ruin, and its male population destroyed. How do you spell victory with that result? Does the West really want to sacrifice Ukraine to stand up to Putin? I mean more than it already has.
"Does the West really want to sacrifice Ukraine to stand up to Putin," isn't really the relevant question. The Ukrainians have their own view on whether or not they are willing to be absorbed into #Russiaterroriststate. So you would need to ask them if (1) They are willing to fight back against the aggressive, illegal, immoral, genocidal invaders and (2) What aid they need to be successful. Then decide if the West can mobilize to continue to supply that aid.
As Zelensky replied when the U.S. offered to evacuate him soon after the war's beginning, "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition."
Russia's military has been degraded --- losing around half of their tanks, it is reported, and with its most competent, well-trained units decimated in the opening months --- while Ukraine continues to get better equipment, better weapons systems. And they are defending their homeland, with far superior morale than conscipts and convicts sent into the meat grinder.
Ukraine is getting help from some fifty nations, while Russia has to rely on the likes of Iran, North Korea, and possibly China. It looks to me like it's #Russiaterroriststate that should worry about losing in the end, not Ukraine.
Thank you for keeping us updated on Ukraine. I look forward to reading your information and thoughts on what is happening on the ground. Your reporting is more informative and helpful than most other media sources. I am with the people of Ukraine for the long haul.
Putin's only hope is that he can drag this out until he returns Trump to power in the US and western support for Ukraine collapses. The challenge for Biden and the Western Alliance is to make it impossible for Putin to hold out for two more years.
Inevitably mortality will strike down even Mad Vlad Putin, so of course there is hope. The fact Putin realizes that is why he has jailed or poisoned so many of his political rivals. In the case of Alexei Navalny, first poisoning and now imprisoning him, in fact.
Did I say rabid? I forgot to say rabid Nazi.Enough of Putler calling those wgo oppose him Nazis, it truly is sickening that no one has called out this genocidal racist turd for what he is: A NAZI!
My son, now a US Army Major, said as a newly minted 2nd Lt commanding a platoon, he could always pick out the USMA grads by their obvious intellect, by their insights.
I think of that with your every post.
No joke.
This week, pinhead Paul Gosar, congressman from some red state hellhole, announced "Ukraine is not our friend and Russia is not our enemy."
Let's round up these traitorous fucks and give them a multi-year, all expenses paid vacation in beautiful Guantanamo Bay.
Zelenskyy is fighting proxy WWIII on our behalf. NATO, the EU, and sane Americans know this and will not let him fail.
Slava Ukraini!
Longing to live in a coastal climate warmer than the Northeast's and less deSanctified than the Southeast, I think Guantanamo sounds pretty agreeable. Since everyone wants the U.S. out of Guantanamo anyway, I propose building a supermax in interior Alaska—not too far from Siberia—as a multiyear vacation destination for traitors like Gosar.
Alaska sounds good to me...preferably Arctic Circle area.
I say - revoke their US citizenship as traitors and send them to Moscow.
Agreed, Paul Gosar is a pinhead, and he's not the only elected Republican pinhead in Arizona, but "red state hellholes" don't generally elect Democratic governors and secretaries of state. Just sayin' . . .
Ah, sorry. I should have said red *district* hellhole.
That works better -- and could also apply to the NW GA district "represented" (so to speak) by her who shall not be named. And a few others. What those calling for secession or separation don't realize is that virtually no state is solid red, and the most productive parts of so-called red states are generally pretty blue or at least purple.
The reality of this is that had Putin’s wish come true last year, there would be no Ukraine today. We MUST support their effort no matter what griping comes from the Repugnicans.
The idea that Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping could form a working alliance in which China supplies arms to Russia is highly problematic. Witness what happened the last time widely separated dictators got together to oppose the Western Alliance. At the outset of World War II, Germany had allied itself with fascist Italy and Imperial Japan. Adolf Hitler's so-called 'Pact of Steel' with Italian dictator Benito Mussolini turned out to be deadweight lead. Germany's alliance with Japan was utterly incapable of fulfillment for the simple reason that neither could provide the other with logistical or political support. Nazi Germany's erstwhile allies turned out to be a collection of renegades and unstable regimes in eastern and southern Europe, and in the Balkans, with the possible exception of Finland, whose hatred of the Soviet Union made it a useful ally against his former colonizer to the east.
Russia and China are natural adversaries that share a tense border along the Amur River in eastern Siberia. Russia has an army that is basically demoralized, beaten, and incapable of strategic thinking and planning. That's been obvious for the past year with Russia's abysmal failure to conquer Ukraine. China has no allies in its immediate neighborhood, and most countries surrounding China have nationalistic hatreds of China's Imperial history of claims to suzerainty in Southeast Asia. China's economy is effectively in freefall, and whatever foreign exchange it possesses is largely in US dollar-denominated securities. That puts the Chinese government in the stranglehold of the United States Treasury takes retaliatory action against China for providing arms and military matériel to Russia. China's domestic economy is faltering badly, and whatever other foreign exchange it hopes to gain must come from foreign trade, a logistical chain that is easily interrupted if China finds itself in conflict, cold or hot, with members of the NATO alliance. Xi's China is a supplier of consumer goods to the outside world; and from a financial standpoint, she is a creditor whose access to new foreign exchange is largely dependent upon China's ability to maintain commercial goodwill and trading relations with the rest of the world. China has the trappings of a modern military establishment, but this is a military establishment that has not been fielded in a real war since the Korean Conflict between June 1950 and July 1953. During that period of time, the People's Liberation Army suffered horrific casualties at the hands of the American-led United Nations forces. In a real conflict, the PLA could prove to be as much of a paper tiger as Vladimir Putin's 'Special Military Operation' is currently experiencing in Ukraine. Our recent experience with China literally floating a high altitude balloon equipped with intelligence-gathering sensors hanging from its bottoms by cables suggests a technology level possessed by China's military establishment that is 50 years behind what the United States and NATO have been fielding against Russia over the past year. The United States-led economic sanctions against Russia have to most observers led to conclusions that Russia's industrial capability has been severely degraded. China's ability to engage in protracted land warfare has not been tested since the Chinese Civil War ended in the PLA's ultimate victory in 1949. China's economic focus on funding and constructing infrastructure in southern Africa has no useful analog in the manufacture of military and war fighting goods. Between the end of the Korean War and the present time, American military production has gone through five, six, seven generations of new weaponry, and more importantly, the knowledge that soldiers need to use, operate and fight with that advanced weaponry that China, simply by virtue of its bystander status, simply does not have, at least in no great abundance. Russia, by contrast, would have been expected to have decades-worth of practical military experience stemming from the Bolshevik defeat of Imperial Russia, through the Russian Civil War of 1919 through 1923, the run up to World War II, and their Great Patriotic War against Germany between June 1941 and May 1945. Beyond that, the Red Army was essentially an army of occupation and exploitation, adept at fighting small local wars such as its eventual conquest of Chechnya. But when Russia invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s, all of its hardware and sophisticated weaponry went for naught, eventually leading to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, simply because they could not defeat a ragtag guerrilla army that was materially supported by the United States.
China has not yet had that level of experience in recent warfare, even as it led to Russia's defeat and withdrawal from Afghanistan. The United States suffered similar frustration, not from military defeat, but rather because the political objectives that the United States set for itself were impossible of being realized. United States was strong enough to fight this war indefinitely, but to no principled purpose. We left because we didn't belong there, where our mantra of nation building, attempted and failed in Iraq, proved equally incapable of fruition in Afghanistan. We left because the imperialists in our midst lost their argument at the polls. But, to our credit, when we left Afghanistan, we brought along tens of thousands of Afghans who wanted to leave Afghanistan with us to start their lives anew here in America. No one in Russia can make that claim; unlikely as not, very few Chinese nationals, if given the choice, would prefer to remain in China, given the number of Chinese who have opted to immigrate to the United States, despite her history of anti-Chinese/Asian racism, language barriers, and the difficulty of transplanting oneself and one's family to a new and unfamiliar country. To Ukrainians, America represents the golden land of opportunity to live in freedom and dignity. That is why they are fighting so hard to maintain their own country against the Russian onslaught. We identify with Ukraine. Large numbers of native-born Americans trace our ancestry to Ukraine, whether it was governed by Imperial Russia, or the Soviet Union. Here in Sacramento, California, there is a large and vibrant Ukrainian community living side-by-side with everybody else, comprised of Hispanic people from Central America and Mexico, people of Vietnamese and South Korean heritage, people of Chinese heritage, and at least another dozen places around the world. Ukrainians identify with us, and the political and cultural freedoms that America represents. That is a powerful incentive on the part of both sides to support and defend Ukraine's freedom from domination by Russia. Russian suzerainty for Ukraine ceased when the Soviet Union dissolved. Nothing that Vladimir Putin can say will undo that reality. Russia cannot defeat militarily and Ukraine that is prepared to fight on terms of parity in terms of military equipment and national capability. China can do nothing to change that equation.
In all likelihood, Xi Jinping cannot afford to give Vladimir Putin a blank check in Putin's failing effort to suppress Ukrainian national identity. Whatever animosity exists between China and the United States over trade and national ambition, China lacks the wherewithal to go head-to-head with United States either economically or militarily. Xi has too many economic problems already to open up a bottomless money pit to support Vladimir Putin; and, as I said above, China and Russia have an uneasy border at the Amur River. China and Russia could just as easily be sworn enemies as wartime allies. Both Xi and Putin are maximalists in terms of their national ambitions, and neither would willingly give ground to the other if it allowed the other party to get ahead. China, arguably, is on the rise; Russia, by contrast, is on the decline. The evidence is everywhere to see. There is no reason to suppose that Xi would willingly give either helping hand or a leg up to someone who could be his sworn enemy the day after tomorrow. As the saying goes, 'My enemy's enemy is my friend'. What goes around comes around. Neither of those two dictators has any reason to trust the other, regardless of the fact that their antipathy towards the United States of America is palpable and enduring.
(I'll clean up the typos a little later)
The Japanese told hitler they would attack America not Russia. Hitler thought that was fine. With in a month the German army was defeated in front of Moscow by the Siberian army that didn’t have to face Japan. Both countries were also at war with America.
The danger to Russia is China taking Siberia. China has claims on all its neighbours including Russia.
China allowed North Korea to build nukes and missiles even though Beijing is closer than Tokyo. Autocrats are cruel not smart.
Actually, the Japanese never made that commitment to Germany. The message was implicit in information conveyed to Stalin by a Russian spy, Richard Sorge who was soon thereafter caught and executed by the Japanese. The Japanese army that occupied Manchuko, in Manchuria was in no condition to fight in August 1945. A Russian army swept them away in a matter of days between August 8 and 15,the day that Japan sued for peace. By then the Japanese home islands were devastated, and devoid of aerial and naval assets. Japan had basically lost the war a year earlier with defeats in the Mariana Islands in June 1944 and five months later, at Leyte Gulf, in the Philippines.
Thank You Very Much Arthur! The best summary I have read (ever) on this topic. May I share? And thank you, too, for a word new to me:
Suzerainty (countable and uncountable, plural suzerainties): A relation between states in which a subservient nation has its own government, but is unable to take international action independent of the superior state; a similar relationship between other entities. quotations ▼ The status or power of a suzerain.
Russia is rapidly running out of conscripts (mostly incompetent as well). Soon the elderly will be sent to the front. Lack of weapons and a will of the people for peace might push him off the edge. In an act of sheer lunacy, he may escalate with nuclear capability. Had Hitler nuclear weapons, he would have used them because he too was a lunatic.
Nuclear weapons are political. Nobody has used them since 1945. Putin knows that a NATO Response could mean the end of Russia as we know it. Putin's own people might get rid of him. Putin has used bullying and threats to soften his opposition, but the West has nuclear weapons that can destroy him too. He's happy to spend Russian lives, but I'm doubtful that he's willing to risk everything on Ukraine. Bullies are cowards at heart
It's almost unbelievable that this travesty happened in the first place and even more unreal that a year later it's still going on
If Putey is having to conscript even more troops to replace the ones he's already wasted, is it possible that, realizing they are being sent to get slaughtered, they will turn on their master's and rebel? Just a thought....
Or they will flee from Russia like many others have already done.
Pigs like Putler and Hitler are always dangerous, the way any rabid animal is.There is only one way to deal with a rabid rodent.Kill it.
If you walk around Petersburg and Moscow, you immediately notice Caddies, Chevys and Fords, along with the more expected Mercedes, BMW and Toyotas. After a year of being cut off from spare parts suppliers thanks to the embargo, stocks have to be running low. As cars and trucks (and the Sapsan bullet train linking Petersburg and Moscow was made by Siemens) begun to break down, mobility inside Russia itself is going decrease, perhaps by a large measure. Ironically, Russia is one of the few places in Europe where you see a lot of American cars.
Edward: great point. Let’s give Ukraine what it needs to keep up the fight and then at some point, the Russian war machine grinds to a halt due to lousy maintenance and a lack of parts and a poor industrial base to replace anything.
Re American cars, I think Vietnam had our cars, as well.
An adroit wrap up, for which Mr. T. is uniquely qualified. As for "Putin’s generals and his intelligence services had assured him that Kyiv would fall in five days," all I can think of is: "Where are they now?"
Being accused of treason by Putin's erstwhile chef Prigozhin?
Are they the same generals who told Biden that Afghanistan could hold for a while. Just as bad, but in a democracy you blame Biden not the true architect.
I don’t read everything that is being published about this slaughter since so much of it is incomprehensible argy-bargy about military tactics and operations. Those are things that Lucian understands very well, and l look forward to reading anything he writes about that because it’s understandable and insightful. What I have concluded is that the smarter of the Russian conscripts manage to get themselves captured by the Ukrainians as soon as they’re sent into the meat grinder. That way they can survive. Wave after wave of Russians are being sacrificed mindlessly because that’s the only thing the high command knows how to do. I’m not wishing for the Russians to smarten up, and get their act together. Far from it, but I would hope the conscripts would rebel, kill their officers as necessary, and then surrender. We don’t hear much about Ukrainian casualties, but they have to be substantial. Ukraine doesn’t have a big population, compared to Russia, that can supply endless man power. The Russians don’t care how many of their own get killed, and that may be a winning tactic if it goes on long enough. Giving Ukraine what they need to deliver knockout blows to the Russian has to be the way to end this. A years long stalemate can’t be acceptable to the rest of the world. Much of Ukraine is already rubble. Something dramatic has to happen or else Ukraine will be a total ruin, and its male population destroyed. How do you spell victory with that result? Does the West really want to sacrifice Ukraine to stand up to Putin? I mean more than it already has.
"Does the West really want to sacrifice Ukraine to stand up to Putin," isn't really the relevant question. The Ukrainians have their own view on whether or not they are willing to be absorbed into #Russiaterroriststate. So you would need to ask them if (1) They are willing to fight back against the aggressive, illegal, immoral, genocidal invaders and (2) What aid they need to be successful. Then decide if the West can mobilize to continue to supply that aid.
As Zelensky replied when the U.S. offered to evacuate him soon after the war's beginning, "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition."
Russia's military has been degraded --- losing around half of their tanks, it is reported, and with its most competent, well-trained units decimated in the opening months --- while Ukraine continues to get better equipment, better weapons systems. And they are defending their homeland, with far superior morale than conscipts and convicts sent into the meat grinder.
Ukraine is getting help from some fifty nations, while Russia has to rely on the likes of Iran, North Korea, and possibly China. It looks to me like it's #Russiaterroriststate that should worry about losing in the end, not Ukraine.
Thank you for keeping us updated on Ukraine. I look forward to reading your information and thoughts on what is happening on the ground. Your reporting is more informative and helpful than most other media sources. I am with the people of Ukraine for the long haul.
Putin's only hope is that he can drag this out until he returns Trump to power in the US and western support for Ukraine collapses. The challenge for Biden and the Western Alliance is to make it impossible for Putin to hold out for two more years.
Is there any hope within Russia, for post-Putin leadership? Can it even happen?
Inevitably mortality will strike down even Mad Vlad Putin, so of course there is hope. The fact Putin realizes that is why he has jailed or poisoned so many of his political rivals. In the case of Alexei Navalny, first poisoning and now imprisoning him, in fact.
Vladimir is starting to look a lot like Benito Mussolini, invading Ethiopa. Are there still lamp posts in Moscow?
Here we go:
www.thedailybeast.com/putins-chef-yevgeny-prigozhin-betrays-kremlin-with-gruesome-photos-of-russian-corpses?ref=scroll
As mentioned in Lucian's column, this can't be good for Putin.
Did I say rabid? I forgot to say rabid Nazi.Enough of Putler calling those wgo oppose him Nazis, it truly is sickening that no one has called out this genocidal racist turd for what he is: A NAZI!
Before we send in the F16s, I would love to know your thoughts about what's to keep the war in Ukraine from slipsliding into world war.
www.thedailybeast.com/why-hasnt-putin-used-nuclear-weapons
Thank You! This makes perfect, reassuring sense!!