The great military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, who wrote “On War,” the classic 19th Century tome on the philosophy and practice -- what they called at West Point the “art” — of war wouldn’t have put it this way, but one of most important rules of warfare is, you don’t want to do stuff on the battlefield that isn’t decisive. A battlefield action is decisive when it accomplishes the goal it set out to accomplish. When an army is on the offensive, that usually means the army must accomplish the goal of taking and holding land that is held by the enemy. When an army is on the defensive, decisive means holding land you’re occupying against an attacking force that wants to take it from you.
Valuable insight born of knowledge of military tactics. And correct. It’s past time we supply Ukraine with the weaponry it needs to convince the Russian people and their generals that this isn’t a war worth the blood and deaths of their sons, brothers, fathers. Though I may seem an unlikely advocate, there are wars worth fighting. For Ukraine this is one. And if it’s worth fighting, it’s worth winning.
Of course, at least thirty or more in Europe should Putin go full crackpot and shanghai his kleptocratic minions to support another mercenary-fueled invasion of, say, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland (that's been done by Russia several times in the last one hundred years), who knows. They have the universal human right to self-defense and defense of others, we have the same right and treaty obligations, I could continue on this for hours, maybe even reach all the way back and cite Douglas Pike on the National Liberation Front in Vietnam, Irving Howe in Dissent on the war in Indochina, Ho Chi Minh's futile trip to Paris after WW2 in the hopes of recognition of a decolonialized Indochina from us, thinking we expelled the British Empire and would be sympathetic, Frances Fitzgerald's Fire and the Lake: The Americans and Vietnamese in Vietnam, and plenty more: Greece after WW2 and the fate of George Polk, Iran in 1953 and the fate of Mossadegh, Guatemala in 1954 - Jacob Arbenz (btw Lucian's grandfather ALLEGEDY had some role in this, in his post in the CIA, but by the standards of the Cold War, it's much more complicated than to simply decry the US and other foreign involvement in ridding countries of what was feared to lead to Soviet-style communist tyranny) and on to the Suez Crisis, Bay of Pigs, and LBJ reversing JFK's NSAM253, thus, troops in Vietnam.
The thing is, Cal, the 1969-70 national high school debate topic was "Resolved: Congress should prohibit unilateral military intervention in foreign countries," so thousands of us studied this material, so we wouldn't look hopelessly overmatched, and because we had a draft looming, and much more. Body bags were coming back and kids we knew in elementary, middles school, were dying over there.
EDIT: IT WAS NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM 263, OT 253 - HERE IS A LINK TO A DEVASTATING, FACT-BASED AND FACTS CITED DEMOLITION OF THE PERSISTENT MYTH OF "JFK AS COLD WARRIOR ESCALATING IN VIETNAM," BY ARGUABLY THE PREMIER EXPERT ON THE JFK ASSASSINATION, JAMES DI EUGENIO:
Jim DiEugenio examines Marc Selverstone's attempt to turn President Kennedy into a Cold Warrior, to somehow transform JFK's withdrawal plan in Vietnam into an open-ended commitment, and to absurdly propose that there was no real break in policy from JFK to LBJ.
FWIW: Clausewitz is frozen in time. He is not a military theorist or genius. He wrote about war when Generals exchanged swords and entire armies/navies waved a white flag, then were sent home, sometimes with their small arms and horsesn and ships. Then again, makes sense since US mil academies and colleges are also frozen in time. The true doctrine of the US Mil goes back to the A-Bombs, when all else fails, firepower won't. Yet it keeps failing. For good reason.
The lesson of the post-WW2 mil adventures is wars are no longer winnable by firepower. One must include non-American mil adventures into the same bucket. Iran-Iraq, Israel-Palestine. Ru-Af. Sy-Arab Sunnis and on and on.
(And a hard no to those who think we won a war against Ir in a mere matter of hours after it invaded Kuwait. Start when Ir invaded, then count the days to when the US/allies crossed into Ir, then count the dead Shia, swamp Arabs, and Kurds that died after GHWB said hey, look how easy it is to defeat Saddam. Tell the families of all those who perished after WE WON. And what did we win if we won? Bon chance).
Yes, Uk is fighting for its dirt on a 900+mile front. No next weapon system is the one. Nor the next nor the next.
The progress Uk has made is from being innovative and imaginative. Those two have no equal. Is how D-Day happened and changed the western front for good. Didn't come from firepower or overwhelming numbers. Lest folk forget, it came from a few dozen wo/men* primarily Brits who used their minds not their muscle. They didn't look at a playbook or Clausewitz's and his smarter half's book. And the French Atlantic coastline is longer than the Uk-Ru border and had to be crossed in ships and boats. Germany had spent years building fortifications, not months. Uk has long been a center for innovation and imagination. Zelensky doesn't have enough confidence in his own people. He truly needs to trust any of his Generals who says big guns are great, big minds are better. And whoever is responsible for sending valuable drones to their death in Moscow should be shit canned. It is stoopid and a waste of weapons and manpower. Same drones could be used to make it seem Ru was attacking its own soldiers or command posts from the rear of from Ru soil. This slo-motion counter-offensive bolsters Ru morale. JFC.
*Operation Fortitude. A shitload of dummies inc the biggest and the one w/the most hot air of them them all, Patton.
No doubt Zelensky is not a military strategist - though politically very astute - is playing it by ear. What choice has he? Ukraine is in a desperate situation. Its strength is in its people’s determination to not be consumed by the outdated fantasy of a madman.
Survival is a end in itself but clumsy as a battle plan.
"No doubt Zelensky is not a military strategist - though politically very astute - is playing it by ear." Agree 100% ,100% in agreement.
Been my experience political and mil leaders who talk big in public can be the most indecisive when it comes to making the required biggest and/or boldest decisions. Yes, there are exceptions.
Know well am in the small minority who view President Zelensky through two different lenses (as you captured). Waving off US-NATO warning and irrefutable intel of an imminent Ru invasion guaranteed Ru would make uncontested inroads all across the 900+ border. And as mentioned, wasting valuable weapons on Moscow for some nebulous and totally immeasurable reason has nothing to do with expelling the invaders.
It also gives pause to NATO as to delivering weapon systems that also could be used to hit targets inside Ru. Would be hard pressed to find a single, never mind all NATO members who support using western weapons inside Ru. Striking the Ru mil rear is smart, but not if it is in Ru. Sabotage is quite different. It isn't about weapons per se, it is all about assuming high risk in order to have many orders of effect.
The larger point being the framing by ret. GOs and self-anointed experts that this war is part WW1 and part undefined is absurd. That dismisses that the nature of war is always in all ways changing. This war is 4thGEN warfare. Not 3rd with a twist or two.
Cute aphorisms whether from Clausewitz or Powell (overwhelming force) sound good in theory yet have shown to fail in practice. Over. And over. Again. Ru Mil knows all the conventional thinking on how to fight a ground war hence immediately went about blocking. And the blocking was in full view in near real time to western SATTS hence to Uk, Zelensky and Uk mil. No way NATO said to Zelensky it ain't no big deal, just sit back and allow them to do it anywhere they want while Ru conscripts another quarter of a million soldiers, and arms factories churn out ammo and ord.
For many decades the self-anointed armchair generals insisted while shaking w/fear the Ru Mil could roll across Eu in a matter of weeks. They saw way too many Blitzkrieg movies and seem to have forgotten a thing called NATO did not exist then. Then insisted this is all about NATO expansion. Again, thinking from only 1side of an equation, the west's. They long have dismissed Putin's speeches on the Ru Empire and constant references to Czars NOT to USSR premiers etc. Is textbook Cold War mentality. Is a big difference between the USSR and the Ru Empire.
Every day I bring up Uk propaganda pieces, vids and articles. According to them Ru is losing >600 KIA and 400 WIA each and every day compared with 0 Uk mil KIA/WIA/MIA/POWs. Nearly the same with equipment. Sure doesn't square with the gimmie gimmie gimmie all you got and then some.
And yes, not buying the latest that a handful of Uk wimmin were behind a plot to assassinate Zelensky. Comes from the same people who said there was a coup attempt against Putin who know say no it wasn't, was cooked up by Putin and Prigozhin.
Hate war because it is premised in lies and falsehoods. And to expel an invader takes killing its body and its mind. One is easy. Too easy. The other is hard.
Why do you think sending drones to Moscow is stupid? Drones are not as valuable as people. Are you saying the Ukrainians should send piloted aircraft to attack Russia? Are you saying the Ukrainians shouldn’t show the Russians there are military repercussions to committing war crimes and attacking civilian targets? Seems like that is what you are saying. Don’t understand you using Normandy as an example of using minds over firepower. Also have to laugh at you using the military minds of the UK as good examples of anything. Remember Dieppe? Remember WWI, where a very good Australian Corps Commander once said that the British Army was a an army of brave men led by donkeys. Trying to understand why you used the length of the French coastline versus the length of the Russian border with Ukraine (and you forgot Belarus). It was the very length of the French coastline to include southern France that made it so hard for the Germans to guess where the Allies were going to come ashore. Wasted a lot of valuable German time and resources. What are your examples of Zelensky not letting the Generals execute the war? Don’t know who you are shadowland, but I don’t have a lot of trust in your military knowledge or expertise.
-Not saying anything of the sort, au contraire. And to be clear what I said is in black and white and has no meaning beyond the words selected.
-You can laugh at what I wrote, am glad you find humor in war. Is important that positive human emotions not get lost in war because war is all about holding on to one's humanity when others can't. War is thee greatest test of one's humanity. Is not a conclusory statement. It is truth.
-UK is not Uk, United Kingdom v. Ukraine. Read better including history of D-Day. You seem totally oblivious to Operation Fortitude, just as the Germans were. Which was the idea. All of the French coastline was not heavily fortified as were those in the English Channel area. Only the Channel area would facilitate an invasion under the cover of darkness. Other areas meant the flotilla would been spotted in the daylight by Luftwaffe and/or the still formidable German Navy. Would amount to a human sacrifice. Does sound like something Patton would approve.
-Not forgetting Belarus, you are adding a component that is not a factor in expelling the invader from Uk. Currently the Ru mil holds no, zero, nada Uk territory that borders Belarus.
-As far as past UK mil might (emphasis past) v. mil brains. No argument there. Besides, past performance is not an indicator of future results".
-As to your question of Zelensky not allowing GOs to attack, jeez, he is CinC. If he wanted them to attack, he woulda ordered it. You do know how deduction and induction work, no?
-Uk drones attacking Moscow? Two wrongs a right not make. Uk has the moral highroad since it was invaded. One forfeits the moral highroad by rationalizing (not justifying) attacking the capital city of the invader. See jus ad bellum, jus in bello and jus bellum. None include any form of the word rationalize.
-Not asking for your trust in mil matters. Don't need it. Nor sought it. Hate war with all my being for good reason and for many reasons over time. None that I choose to share.
Am ~shadowcloud~ birthed under the Hunter Moon. Its meaning is lost on many. Not on all. Am ~indigenous~ and wear the moniker from Jefferson as a merciless indian savage w/red pride.
A pretty bleak analysis, if its a conventional war I don't see how Ukraine ever wins, Russia has more of everything, including soldiers to sacrifice. If its a guerilla war with Ukraine defending its homeland I don't see how Russia ever conquers a hostile populace. Lucian, how seriously do you take Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons if we and the rest of NATO keep sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine? At some point is Putin's hold on power so imperiled that he does the unthinkable?
I think the risk of NATO being directly involved is so great that the focus should be on an immediate ceasefire and real negotiations. Sounds unrealistic, and probably is, but it's just so past time for the killing to stop.
I agree because my thought is that the longer this drags on (and is manipulated by all interested factions), the greater the chance of a miscalculation or mistake that leads to something much worse than what we've seen so far. A global holocaust will serve no one. We are supposed to have a UN that works to stop wars like this, as it sometimes has done in the past, but in recent decades seems powerless to intervene effectively. Not when major powers are involved.
Never again? First, that phrase puts an image of concentration camp victims in front of me. And means (to me) we will stop atrocities with ‘with great prejudice’ - an old term but a clear promise of meeting horror and violence with greater violence if need be to stop it.
As for war? While I can hear Joan Baez in my head singing where have all the flowers gone in German, and I remember when the boy (who I’d marry) left before dawn to appear for induction into the army during Viêt Nam, I can hope, but don’t know anymore. For my children and grandchildren - all of ours - I pray so.
Has there ever been a war to end all wars? No. Humans have short memories and a limitless capacity for violence. Again and again I see authoritarians, egoists rise to power. We have one maniac threatening nuclear force right now. What stops their agression other than a guarantee that while initially they it will be met with appeal and diplomacy, it’s going to be a lesson in force. Why NATO is such a critical alliance.
Every rational person is anti war. Every mother is certainly is. Especially just a day past the anniversary of Nagasaki, we hope so.
Were China's plans thrwarted bybUkraines surprising strength of character?
"
China's New Silk Road project
Silk Road
The New Eurasian Land Bridge, which runs from Western China to Western Russia through Kazakhstan, and includes the Silk Road Railway through China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany. Another corridor will run from Northern China through Mongolia to the Russian Far East.
Summary
The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive China-led infrastructure project that aims to stretch around the globe.
Some analysts see the project as a disturbing expansion of Chinese power, and the United States has struggled to offer a competing vision.
The initiative has stoked opposition in some Belt and Road countries that have experienced debt crises"
Ukrainians are being worn down by a propagandist who specializes in demoralizing the victims. This person is a former KGB officer who was handed over the keys to the kingdom and has a coterie of loyal well-endowed supporters who control the engines of industry.
Ukraine could probably be blown to kingdom come but that wouldn’t sit well with the international community, so instead they are being tormented by a superpower that likes being a spoiler.
It’s kinda like the beginning starved to death, a technique that was perfected in 1930-1
resulting in the death of millions of Ukrainians by the very same neighbours who profess their undying love for them.
I know it sounds kinky but it’s in the history books.
Putin is a sick man with murderous friends. While the invasion likely was for the historically accepted rationale for such invasions: resources and territory. But he made a mistake not moving sooner when Trump was still president.
For authoritarians like Putin & Co. the worst sin is miscalculation. And they have.
astute commentary and FTR is the perfect pushback to Trump's wet dreams (8levels up from wishful thinking) of Putin would never invade when I was president and only I can end it in 24hrs. Again, in Trump's mind only he exists. No others have any say in anything, including unforced errors of their own making aka own goal.
Russia is counting on a grinding war of attrition and has no scruples whatsoever, none - no compunctions about engaging in what human rights activists have termed the largest campaign of genocide in Europe since 1945, including the horrors in the Balkans in the 1990s.
So unless Ukraine is armed with the type of air power Lucian emphasizes they desperately need - pronto, as in "last year," and since the USA hemmed and hawed and hesitated, as soon as possible as of August 2023 - the almost inevitable result is a grinding, genocidal war that favors the side with no adherence to any recognized modern code of warfare, Putin's Russia.
Here are two resources, one with no paywall and daily coverage and often hourly updates, and the other from a famous Russian (by way of the old Soviet Union, born in Baku) dissident
Turning food into a weapon: how Russia resorted to one of the oldest forms of warfare
With Russia blockading Ukraine’s eastern ports, an alternative route to the west is possible but faces serious problems
Julian Borger in Washington
Wed 9 Aug 2023 13.47 EDT
After failing to conquer Ukraine by conventional means, Russia tried an energy war, trying to hobble the power grid and freeze the nation into submission. Now it has launched a food war.
The mining of the Kakhovka dam in June threatens to turn southern Ukrainian farmland into a dustbowl. Since Moscow pulled out of an UN-brokered deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea last month, it has announced a naval blockade of the country’s ports, and directly targeted food (destroying 220,000 tonnes of cereals awaiting export in silos) on the sea coast but also inland with attacks over the past two weeks on the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail.
The global cereal price index rose 10% in late July after Russia torpedoed the Black Sea grain initiative (BSGI), blocking a route that carried 32m tonnes over a year, more than half Ukraine’s total grain exports.
Some traders believe prices will have risen 20% by the end of the summer. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has appealed to Vladimir Putin to reconsider, but few involved in the grain business are optimistic that the deal can be revived.
By turning food into a weapon Russia has resorted to one of the oldest forms of warfare. Ancient armies burned the granaries of their foes to starve them into submission.
In this case, Ukraine’s economy has been further damaged and Russian exports have fetched higher prices. But the threat of starvation is thousands of miles away in the very poorest countries, that could be pushed further towards famine by higher prices and fewer humanitarian deliveries. *****
173,567 views May 29, 2023 #TVPWorld #garrykasparov #ukrainewar
Experts from Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania joined Russian opposition activists to discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on Central Europe. Our host Jan Darasz was on the ground and had the unique opportunity to talk to a person who knows a thing or two about strategy: Garry Kasparov, Chess Grandmaster and Chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative.
Bringing you all the latest daily news and updates, TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find world news as seen from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram.
22 MINUTES 31 SECONDS, and with a transcript, no less!
One thing is all but certain: if Trump returns to the White House, the Ukrainians will be Putin’s to do with as he pleases. We’ll stop lifting a finger on their behalf. If that happens, my wife and I will be selling our place in Kraków, I suspect at bargain basement price.
How will the reparations be paid by Russia? They have destroyed cities and villages with artillery. They have raped women- and men. Thugs run Russia and the Super Thug is Putin, a total creep.
Repairing the destruction will take a decade. And the lives of those suffering from PTSD are a huge debt... Russia has put itself on the road to Bankruptcy. Excellent.
Amen. We should be giving them everything but nukes in their fight against Putin and taking off the gloves as to exactly how far "behind enemy lines" we are going to allow them to hit the Russians. In addition to not giving the the ATACMS and adequate air cover we have decided to put many of Putin's rear area assets effectively off limits .
The analogy to Viet Nam is dead on. Once we got in we allowed the politicians to manage the battlefield and started putting many parts of the North off limits the war was lost because Ho had a lot more patience and bodies he was willing to lose than we die. Putin is in the same situation. He will send every last Russian boy into this war and spend every last ruble he has from selling oil rather than negotiated. For us to believe he won't his folly.
But, IMHO it gets worse. The Biden Administration has done a great job of selling how we are all in on supporting Ukraine to us. It has done anything but with its marginal approach to war and a lot more Ukrainians including women and children are going to die so long as we continue to piece meal support and withhold critical tactical weaponry from the Ukrainian Army, which, likewise is slowly bleeding out no matter how bravely and smartly they fight.
For God's sake give him the ATACMS which, by our own admission we now consider obsolete and are replacing with a next generation upgrade. What are we waiting for? Putin to turn into Mother Theresa?
Unfortunately, although I am far from an military strategist, I think your assessment is spot on. We fail to learn from our past. If the war continues to drag on, the popular support will waver. Even worse, the political right is already threatening to withhold support virtually surrendering to Russia. We have tip toed around engagement to avoid escalating the war when in fact, in my humble opinion, this is a war of NATO against Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in weapons, but usually too late. We give them what we think they need, not what they have requested nor when they requested. The F-16s are a case in point.
Lucian, Just a quick comment about doing a newsletter about Bremer who single handedly started ISIS. Ignored or had no knowledge about the lessons learned in Germany after WWII (shades of you grandfather and Patton). He disbanded the Iraqi Army who then formed the military arm of ISIS and fired all the Ba’ath party members who ran the infrastructure. Meanwhile back to the Ukrainian War: Biden and his advisors need to release the hold on using weapons given to Ukraine against Russia. What idiots thought that was a good idea. Makes safe havens in Laos and Cambodia seem like nothing compared to letting the Russians commit war crimes with absolutely no repercussions. As you said, it is forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand behind its back. By not letting Ukraine defend itself by going after legitimate Russian military targets we are condoning the actions of the Russians.
About Paul Bremmer: Did anyone other than himself ever order him to disband with arms the Iraq Army? I've never seen anyone actually named. Question: How did this unknown idiot get the power to do what he did? Most subsequent American KIA/WIA are his responsibility.
Like sharply honed questions that cut right to the bone.
As far as did anyone In DC know about disbanding the mil and nearly as stoopid, the Baath Party civil service within the institution and ministries., the silence from W, Cheney and Rummie was deafening. All 3had a feather across their arse re: Ir. Is one of many reasons W Adm is the worst in American history. 8yrs of stoopid from blowing the blossoming budget surplus, to 2hot shooting wars and capped with a not-so-Great Recession. And everything that came with all3.
Agree, and numbers don't lie, people do. To Rs that means it must've been the Ds in Congress or due to a preceding D president.
Rs can't govern cuz they don't know what the word means or entails due to advancing an ideology, a euphemism for a mere belief and faith in the same.
Rs and a governing philosophy*, nevah evah the twain shall meet.
*To Rs Ayn Rand/Altas Shrugged is philosophy. Pondered kneecapping my Jesuit Phil. Professor for forcing us to read it. Halfway through understood his true purpose, torture of the mind is more insidious than that of the body. Others caught on faster!
I can’t improve or elaborate on anything in Lucian’s analysis. What I worry about is a weakening in the United States’ resolve to continue to rigorously support Ukraine. Some recent polls suggest a weakening of support. I know that other NATO countries are contributing equipment and training, but if the US were to withdraw its support, I wonder how long these other countries would assist Ukraine.
Nearly sixty years ago, I was in the United States Army (Sgt E-5) on my way to Southeast Asia. I was traveling in uniform and in one of the airports, I was approached by an older gentleman who said (a nearly verbatim quote): “If you boys don’t stop them Viet Congs in Saigon, next thing you know they’ll be invading Los Angeles.” My plane was about to board so I had no response. But now, in 2023, I wonder if we can repackage these sentiments in Ukraine’s favor—I.e., if we don’t stop them Russians in Kiev, next thing you know, they’ll be invading Baltimore.
Valuable insight born of knowledge of military tactics. And correct. It’s past time we supply Ukraine with the weaponry it needs to convince the Russian people and their generals that this isn’t a war worth the blood and deaths of their sons, brothers, fathers. Though I may seem an unlikely advocate, there are wars worth fighting. For Ukraine this is one. And if it’s worth fighting, it’s worth winning.
"WARS worth fighting"??
More than one??
Of course, at least thirty or more in Europe should Putin go full crackpot and shanghai his kleptocratic minions to support another mercenary-fueled invasion of, say, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland (that's been done by Russia several times in the last one hundred years), who knows. They have the universal human right to self-defense and defense of others, we have the same right and treaty obligations, I could continue on this for hours, maybe even reach all the way back and cite Douglas Pike on the National Liberation Front in Vietnam, Irving Howe in Dissent on the war in Indochina, Ho Chi Minh's futile trip to Paris after WW2 in the hopes of recognition of a decolonialized Indochina from us, thinking we expelled the British Empire and would be sympathetic, Frances Fitzgerald's Fire and the Lake: The Americans and Vietnamese in Vietnam, and plenty more: Greece after WW2 and the fate of George Polk, Iran in 1953 and the fate of Mossadegh, Guatemala in 1954 - Jacob Arbenz (btw Lucian's grandfather ALLEGEDY had some role in this, in his post in the CIA, but by the standards of the Cold War, it's much more complicated than to simply decry the US and other foreign involvement in ridding countries of what was feared to lead to Soviet-style communist tyranny) and on to the Suez Crisis, Bay of Pigs, and LBJ reversing JFK's NSAM253, thus, troops in Vietnam.
The thing is, Cal, the 1969-70 national high school debate topic was "Resolved: Congress should prohibit unilateral military intervention in foreign countries," so thousands of us studied this material, so we wouldn't look hopelessly overmatched, and because we had a draft looming, and much more. Body bags were coming back and kids we knew in elementary, middles school, were dying over there.
EDIT: IT WAS NATIONAL SECURITY ACTION MEMORANDUM 263, OT 253 - HERE IS A LINK TO A DEVASTATING, FACT-BASED AND FACTS CITED DEMOLITION OF THE PERSISTENT MYTH OF "JFK AS COLD WARRIOR ESCALATING IN VIETNAM," BY ARGUABLY THE PREMIER EXPERT ON THE JFK ASSASSINATION, JAMES DI EUGENIO:
www.kennedysandking.com/john-f-kennedy-articles/the-kennedy-withdrawal-by-marc-selverstone
Jim DiEugenio examines Marc Selverstone's attempt to turn President Kennedy into a Cold Warrior, to somehow transform JFK's withdrawal plan in Vietnam into an open-ended commitment, and to absurdly propose that there was no real break in policy from JFK to LBJ.
'
FWIW: Clausewitz is frozen in time. He is not a military theorist or genius. He wrote about war when Generals exchanged swords and entire armies/navies waved a white flag, then were sent home, sometimes with their small arms and horsesn and ships. Then again, makes sense since US mil academies and colleges are also frozen in time. The true doctrine of the US Mil goes back to the A-Bombs, when all else fails, firepower won't. Yet it keeps failing. For good reason.
The lesson of the post-WW2 mil adventures is wars are no longer winnable by firepower. One must include non-American mil adventures into the same bucket. Iran-Iraq, Israel-Palestine. Ru-Af. Sy-Arab Sunnis and on and on.
(And a hard no to those who think we won a war against Ir in a mere matter of hours after it invaded Kuwait. Start when Ir invaded, then count the days to when the US/allies crossed into Ir, then count the dead Shia, swamp Arabs, and Kurds that died after GHWB said hey, look how easy it is to defeat Saddam. Tell the families of all those who perished after WE WON. And what did we win if we won? Bon chance).
Yes, Uk is fighting for its dirt on a 900+mile front. No next weapon system is the one. Nor the next nor the next.
The progress Uk has made is from being innovative and imaginative. Those two have no equal. Is how D-Day happened and changed the western front for good. Didn't come from firepower or overwhelming numbers. Lest folk forget, it came from a few dozen wo/men* primarily Brits who used their minds not their muscle. They didn't look at a playbook or Clausewitz's and his smarter half's book. And the French Atlantic coastline is longer than the Uk-Ru border and had to be crossed in ships and boats. Germany had spent years building fortifications, not months. Uk has long been a center for innovation and imagination. Zelensky doesn't have enough confidence in his own people. He truly needs to trust any of his Generals who says big guns are great, big minds are better. And whoever is responsible for sending valuable drones to their death in Moscow should be shit canned. It is stoopid and a waste of weapons and manpower. Same drones could be used to make it seem Ru was attacking its own soldiers or command posts from the rear of from Ru soil. This slo-motion counter-offensive bolsters Ru morale. JFC.
*Operation Fortitude. A shitload of dummies inc the biggest and the one w/the most hot air of them them all, Patton.
No doubt Zelensky is not a military strategist - though politically very astute - is playing it by ear. What choice has he? Ukraine is in a desperate situation. Its strength is in its people’s determination to not be consumed by the outdated fantasy of a madman.
Survival is a end in itself but clumsy as a battle plan.
"No doubt Zelensky is not a military strategist - though politically very astute - is playing it by ear." Agree 100% ,100% in agreement.
Been my experience political and mil leaders who talk big in public can be the most indecisive when it comes to making the required biggest and/or boldest decisions. Yes, there are exceptions.
Know well am in the small minority who view President Zelensky through two different lenses (as you captured). Waving off US-NATO warning and irrefutable intel of an imminent Ru invasion guaranteed Ru would make uncontested inroads all across the 900+ border. And as mentioned, wasting valuable weapons on Moscow for some nebulous and totally immeasurable reason has nothing to do with expelling the invaders.
It also gives pause to NATO as to delivering weapon systems that also could be used to hit targets inside Ru. Would be hard pressed to find a single, never mind all NATO members who support using western weapons inside Ru. Striking the Ru mil rear is smart, but not if it is in Ru. Sabotage is quite different. It isn't about weapons per se, it is all about assuming high risk in order to have many orders of effect.
The larger point being the framing by ret. GOs and self-anointed experts that this war is part WW1 and part undefined is absurd. That dismisses that the nature of war is always in all ways changing. This war is 4thGEN warfare. Not 3rd with a twist or two.
Cute aphorisms whether from Clausewitz or Powell (overwhelming force) sound good in theory yet have shown to fail in practice. Over. And over. Again. Ru Mil knows all the conventional thinking on how to fight a ground war hence immediately went about blocking. And the blocking was in full view in near real time to western SATTS hence to Uk, Zelensky and Uk mil. No way NATO said to Zelensky it ain't no big deal, just sit back and allow them to do it anywhere they want while Ru conscripts another quarter of a million soldiers, and arms factories churn out ammo and ord.
For many decades the self-anointed armchair generals insisted while shaking w/fear the Ru Mil could roll across Eu in a matter of weeks. They saw way too many Blitzkrieg movies and seem to have forgotten a thing called NATO did not exist then. Then insisted this is all about NATO expansion. Again, thinking from only 1side of an equation, the west's. They long have dismissed Putin's speeches on the Ru Empire and constant references to Czars NOT to USSR premiers etc. Is textbook Cold War mentality. Is a big difference between the USSR and the Ru Empire.
Every day I bring up Uk propaganda pieces, vids and articles. According to them Ru is losing >600 KIA and 400 WIA each and every day compared with 0 Uk mil KIA/WIA/MIA/POWs. Nearly the same with equipment. Sure doesn't square with the gimmie gimmie gimmie all you got and then some.
And yes, not buying the latest that a handful of Uk wimmin were behind a plot to assassinate Zelensky. Comes from the same people who said there was a coup attempt against Putin who know say no it wasn't, was cooked up by Putin and Prigozhin.
Hate war because it is premised in lies and falsehoods. And to expel an invader takes killing its body and its mind. One is easy. Too easy. The other is hard.
Why do you think sending drones to Moscow is stupid? Drones are not as valuable as people. Are you saying the Ukrainians should send piloted aircraft to attack Russia? Are you saying the Ukrainians shouldn’t show the Russians there are military repercussions to committing war crimes and attacking civilian targets? Seems like that is what you are saying. Don’t understand you using Normandy as an example of using minds over firepower. Also have to laugh at you using the military minds of the UK as good examples of anything. Remember Dieppe? Remember WWI, where a very good Australian Corps Commander once said that the British Army was a an army of brave men led by donkeys. Trying to understand why you used the length of the French coastline versus the length of the Russian border with Ukraine (and you forgot Belarus). It was the very length of the French coastline to include southern France that made it so hard for the Germans to guess where the Allies were going to come ashore. Wasted a lot of valuable German time and resources. What are your examples of Zelensky not letting the Generals execute the war? Don’t know who you are shadowland, but I don’t have a lot of trust in your military knowledge or expertise.
-Not saying anything of the sort, au contraire. And to be clear what I said is in black and white and has no meaning beyond the words selected.
-You can laugh at what I wrote, am glad you find humor in war. Is important that positive human emotions not get lost in war because war is all about holding on to one's humanity when others can't. War is thee greatest test of one's humanity. Is not a conclusory statement. It is truth.
-UK is not Uk, United Kingdom v. Ukraine. Read better including history of D-Day. You seem totally oblivious to Operation Fortitude, just as the Germans were. Which was the idea. All of the French coastline was not heavily fortified as were those in the English Channel area. Only the Channel area would facilitate an invasion under the cover of darkness. Other areas meant the flotilla would been spotted in the daylight by Luftwaffe and/or the still formidable German Navy. Would amount to a human sacrifice. Does sound like something Patton would approve.
-Not forgetting Belarus, you are adding a component that is not a factor in expelling the invader from Uk. Currently the Ru mil holds no, zero, nada Uk territory that borders Belarus.
-As far as past UK mil might (emphasis past) v. mil brains. No argument there. Besides, past performance is not an indicator of future results".
-As to your question of Zelensky not allowing GOs to attack, jeez, he is CinC. If he wanted them to attack, he woulda ordered it. You do know how deduction and induction work, no?
-Uk drones attacking Moscow? Two wrongs a right not make. Uk has the moral highroad since it was invaded. One forfeits the moral highroad by rationalizing (not justifying) attacking the capital city of the invader. See jus ad bellum, jus in bello and jus bellum. None include any form of the word rationalize.
-Not asking for your trust in mil matters. Don't need it. Nor sought it. Hate war with all my being for good reason and for many reasons over time. None that I choose to share.
Am ~shadowcloud~ birthed under the Hunter Moon. Its meaning is lost on many. Not on all. Am ~indigenous~ and wear the moniker from Jefferson as a merciless indian savage w/red pride.
Be Well.
A pretty bleak analysis, if its a conventional war I don't see how Ukraine ever wins, Russia has more of everything, including soldiers to sacrifice. If its a guerilla war with Ukraine defending its homeland I don't see how Russia ever conquers a hostile populace. Lucian, how seriously do you take Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons if we and the rest of NATO keep sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine? At some point is Putin's hold on power so imperiled that he does the unthinkable?
I think the risk of NATO being directly involved is so great that the focus should be on an immediate ceasefire and real negotiations. Sounds unrealistic, and probably is, but it's just so past time for the killing to stop.
Giving which parts of Ukraine to Russia?
I agree because my thought is that the longer this drags on (and is manipulated by all interested factions), the greater the chance of a miscalculation or mistake that leads to something much worse than what we've seen so far. A global holocaust will serve no one. We are supposed to have a UN that works to stop wars like this, as it sometimes has done in the past, but in recent decades seems powerless to intervene effectively. Not when major powers are involved.
Interesting perspective. I agree.
Never again? First, that phrase puts an image of concentration camp victims in front of me. And means (to me) we will stop atrocities with ‘with great prejudice’ - an old term but a clear promise of meeting horror and violence with greater violence if need be to stop it.
As for war? While I can hear Joan Baez in my head singing where have all the flowers gone in German, and I remember when the boy (who I’d marry) left before dawn to appear for induction into the army during Viêt Nam, I can hope, but don’t know anymore. For my children and grandchildren - all of ours - I pray so.
Has there ever been a war to end all wars? No. Humans have short memories and a limitless capacity for violence. Again and again I see authoritarians, egoists rise to power. We have one maniac threatening nuclear force right now. What stops their agression other than a guarantee that while initially they it will be met with appeal and diplomacy, it’s going to be a lesson in force. Why NATO is such a critical alliance.
Every rational person is anti war. Every mother is certainly is. Especially just a day past the anniversary of Nagasaki, we hope so.
Were China's plans thrwarted bybUkraines surprising strength of character?
"
China's New Silk Road project
Silk Road
The New Eurasian Land Bridge, which runs from Western China to Western Russia through Kazakhstan, and includes the Silk Road Railway through China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany. Another corridor will run from Northern China through Mongolia to the Russian Far East.
Summary
The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive China-led infrastructure project that aims to stretch around the globe.
Some analysts see the project as a disturbing expansion of Chinese power, and the United States has struggled to offer a competing vision.
The initiative has stoked opposition in some Belt and Road countries that have experienced debt crises"
Invade any sovereign country? Imo yes. You fight. If we were invaded wouldn’t you?
Yes. Uk has the moral obligation to fight. Have to fight smart though. Wars are first lost in between the ears.
NATO will end up being directly involved I would think.
We are already. Essentially saying ‘thus far and no further’.
Which begs the question, dies “never again” have any meaning?
Why don’t the Ukrainians have the time, Lucian? Help me to better understand that.
Ukrainians are being worn down by a propagandist who specializes in demoralizing the victims. This person is a former KGB officer who was handed over the keys to the kingdom and has a coterie of loyal well-endowed supporters who control the engines of industry.
Ukraine could probably be blown to kingdom come but that wouldn’t sit well with the international community, so instead they are being tormented by a superpower that likes being a spoiler.
It’s kinda like the beginning starved to death, a technique that was perfected in 1930-1
resulting in the death of millions of Ukrainians by the very same neighbours who profess their undying love for them.
I know it sounds kinky but it’s in the history books.
Putin is a sick man with murderous friends. While the invasion likely was for the historically accepted rationale for such invasions: resources and territory. But he made a mistake not moving sooner when Trump was still president.
For authoritarians like Putin & Co. the worst sin is miscalculation. And they have.
astute commentary and FTR is the perfect pushback to Trump's wet dreams (8levels up from wishful thinking) of Putin would never invade when I was president and only I can end it in 24hrs. Again, in Trump's mind only he exists. No others have any say in anything, including unforced errors of their own making aka own goal.
Russia is counting on a grinding war of attrition and has no scruples whatsoever, none - no compunctions about engaging in what human rights activists have termed the largest campaign of genocide in Europe since 1945, including the horrors in the Balkans in the 1990s.
So unless Ukraine is armed with the type of air power Lucian emphasizes they desperately need - pronto, as in "last year," and since the USA hemmed and hawed and hesitated, as soon as possible as of August 2023 - the almost inevitable result is a grinding, genocidal war that favors the side with no adherence to any recognized modern code of warfare, Putin's Russia.
Here are two resources, one with no paywall and daily coverage and often hourly updates, and the other from a famous Russian (by way of the old Soviet Union, born in Baku) dissident
critic of Putin for over twenty years:
www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/09/mines-drone-strikes-organised-plan-to-export-ukraine-grain-via-danube-ports-is-no-easy-fix
Turning food into a weapon: how Russia resorted to one of the oldest forms of warfare
With Russia blockading Ukraine’s eastern ports, an alternative route to the west is possible but faces serious problems
Julian Borger in Washington
Wed 9 Aug 2023 13.47 EDT
After failing to conquer Ukraine by conventional means, Russia tried an energy war, trying to hobble the power grid and freeze the nation into submission. Now it has launched a food war.
The mining of the Kakhovka dam in June threatens to turn southern Ukrainian farmland into a dustbowl. Since Moscow pulled out of an UN-brokered deal to allow Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea last month, it has announced a naval blockade of the country’s ports, and directly targeted food (destroying 220,000 tonnes of cereals awaiting export in silos) on the sea coast but also inland with attacks over the past two weeks on the Danube ports of Reni and Izmail.
The global cereal price index rose 10% in late July after Russia torpedoed the Black Sea grain initiative (BSGI), blocking a route that carried 32m tonnes over a year, more than half Ukraine’s total grain exports.
Some traders believe prices will have risen 20% by the end of the summer. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has appealed to Vladimir Putin to reconsider, but few involved in the grain business are optimistic that the deal can be revived.
By turning food into a weapon Russia has resorted to one of the oldest forms of warfare. Ancient armies burned the granaries of their foes to starve them into submission.
In this case, Ukraine’s economy has been further damaged and Russian exports have fetched higher prices. But the threat of starvation is thousands of miles away in the very poorest countries, that could be pushed further towards famine by higher prices and fewer humanitarian deliveries. *****
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cV1T8xb1NQ8
173,567 views May 29, 2023 #TVPWorld #garrykasparov #ukrainewar
Experts from Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania joined Russian opposition activists to discuss the impact of the war in Ukraine on Central Europe. Our host Jan Darasz was on the ground and had the unique opportunity to talk to a person who knows a thing or two about strategy: Garry Kasparov, Chess Grandmaster and Chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative.
#TVPWorld #russia #ukraine #ukrainewar #russiaukrainewar #offensive #kasparov #garrykasparov #europe #centraleurope
Bringing you all the latest daily news and updates, TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find world news as seen from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram.
22 MINUTES 31 SECONDS, and with a transcript, no less!
One thing is all but certain: if Trump returns to the White House, the Ukrainians will be Putin’s to do with as he pleases. We’ll stop lifting a finger on their behalf. If that happens, my wife and I will be selling our place in Kraków, I suspect at bargain basement price.
How will the reparations be paid by Russia? They have destroyed cities and villages with artillery. They have raped women- and men. Thugs run Russia and the Super Thug is Putin, a total creep.
Repairing the destruction will take a decade. And the lives of those suffering from PTSD are a huge debt... Russia has put itself on the road to Bankruptcy. Excellent.
Amen. We should be giving them everything but nukes in their fight against Putin and taking off the gloves as to exactly how far "behind enemy lines" we are going to allow them to hit the Russians. In addition to not giving the the ATACMS and adequate air cover we have decided to put many of Putin's rear area assets effectively off limits .
The analogy to Viet Nam is dead on. Once we got in we allowed the politicians to manage the battlefield and started putting many parts of the North off limits the war was lost because Ho had a lot more patience and bodies he was willing to lose than we die. Putin is in the same situation. He will send every last Russian boy into this war and spend every last ruble he has from selling oil rather than negotiated. For us to believe he won't his folly.
But, IMHO it gets worse. The Biden Administration has done a great job of selling how we are all in on supporting Ukraine to us. It has done anything but with its marginal approach to war and a lot more Ukrainians including women and children are going to die so long as we continue to piece meal support and withhold critical tactical weaponry from the Ukrainian Army, which, likewise is slowly bleeding out no matter how bravely and smartly they fight.
For God's sake give him the ATACMS which, by our own admission we now consider obsolete and are replacing with a next generation upgrade. What are we waiting for? Putin to turn into Mother Theresa?
Unfortunately, although I am far from an military strategist, I think your assessment is spot on. We fail to learn from our past. If the war continues to drag on, the popular support will waver. Even worse, the political right is already threatening to withhold support virtually surrendering to Russia. We have tip toed around engagement to avoid escalating the war when in fact, in my humble opinion, this is a war of NATO against Russia. The U.S. has provided billions in weapons, but usually too late. We give them what we think they need, not what they have requested nor when they requested. The F-16s are a case in point.
Lucian, Just a quick comment about doing a newsletter about Bremer who single handedly started ISIS. Ignored or had no knowledge about the lessons learned in Germany after WWII (shades of you grandfather and Patton). He disbanded the Iraqi Army who then formed the military arm of ISIS and fired all the Ba’ath party members who ran the infrastructure. Meanwhile back to the Ukrainian War: Biden and his advisors need to release the hold on using weapons given to Ukraine against Russia. What idiots thought that was a good idea. Makes safe havens in Laos and Cambodia seem like nothing compared to letting the Russians commit war crimes with absolutely no repercussions. As you said, it is forcing Ukraine to fight with one hand behind its back. By not letting Ukraine defend itself by going after legitimate Russian military targets we are condoning the actions of the Russians.
About Paul Bremmer: Did anyone other than himself ever order him to disband with arms the Iraq Army? I've never seen anyone actually named. Question: How did this unknown idiot get the power to do what he did? Most subsequent American KIA/WIA are his responsibility.
truth
Like sharply honed questions that cut right to the bone.
As far as did anyone In DC know about disbanding the mil and nearly as stoopid, the Baath Party civil service within the institution and ministries., the silence from W, Cheney and Rummie was deafening. All 3had a feather across their arse re: Ir. Is one of many reasons W Adm is the worst in American history. 8yrs of stoopid from blowing the blossoming budget surplus, to 2hot shooting wars and capped with a not-so-Great Recession. And everything that came with all3.
As far as I can recall EVERY Republican Presidency has ended in a recession and tears.
Agree, and numbers don't lie, people do. To Rs that means it must've been the Ds in Congress or due to a preceding D president.
Rs can't govern cuz they don't know what the word means or entails due to advancing an ideology, a euphemism for a mere belief and faith in the same.
Rs and a governing philosophy*, nevah evah the twain shall meet.
*To Rs Ayn Rand/Altas Shrugged is philosophy. Pondered kneecapping my Jesuit Phil. Professor for forcing us to read it. Halfway through understood his true purpose, torture of the mind is more insidious than that of the body. Others caught on faster!
I can’t improve or elaborate on anything in Lucian’s analysis. What I worry about is a weakening in the United States’ resolve to continue to rigorously support Ukraine. Some recent polls suggest a weakening of support. I know that other NATO countries are contributing equipment and training, but if the US were to withdraw its support, I wonder how long these other countries would assist Ukraine.
Nearly sixty years ago, I was in the United States Army (Sgt E-5) on my way to Southeast Asia. I was traveling in uniform and in one of the airports, I was approached by an older gentleman who said (a nearly verbatim quote): “If you boys don’t stop them Viet Congs in Saigon, next thing you know they’ll be invading Los Angeles.” My plane was about to board so I had no response. But now, in 2023, I wonder if we can repackage these sentiments in Ukraine’s favor—I.e., if we don’t stop them Russians in Kiev, next thing you know, they’ll be invading Baltimore.