If you’re an officer at any level of command in a unit engaged in combat, it’s never a good sign when you get reports that your soldiers are taking off their uniforms and attempting to blend in with the civilian population. In military terms, that’s called desertion, and in this country it’s punishable by a significant stay at the Disciplinary Barracks in Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. I don’t know for sure, but if I were to guess, I’d think the punishment in Russia is a firing squad.
Sep 10, 2022·edited Sep 10, 2022Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
that ISW map might be a bit outdated. last night i saw a map showing two salients drawn from geolocating info, one long one projecting from Balakiia to the outskirts of Kupyansk. there were reports of artillary strikes in Kupyansk.
another shorter salient went in from about halfway down between Balakiia to Izium eastward to a point geolocated about NE of Izium.
it looks like UAF are chopping up the rails like Finnish "motti".
i saw a report that Ukrainian fast moving soldiers have come across dead russians where there had not yet been firefights, causing them to say they thought these were soldiers shot by russians as the men tried to flee.
Can you imagine what would have happened to Ukraine if Trump had won the 2020 election? Instead Biden managed to unify Europe, strengthen NATO, and supply Ukraine with necessary weapons at a cost much less than what we spent in Afghanistan.
Sep 10, 2022·edited Sep 10, 2022Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
I would like to interject a word of caution amid all this. Maybe even advocatus diaboli. The war between Russia and Ukraine is, at essence, a struggle between two distant (to us) European nations. Should it grow into a larger conflict, that holds enormous implications for the rest of Europe, NATO, and the US (not to mention all those countries affected by food and fuel shortages due to this war). In a more pragmatic era (I suppose I'm thinking of the 18th century power struggles in Europe), this war might have resolved itself relatively quickly. A few battles or sieges, and then peace is agreed on terms that give the victors something, the losers lick their wounds and wait for a better opportunity. But there is no threat of a conflagration that might destroy ALL warring parties. That would have been unthinkable.
Unfortunately, in these times we seem to view war as a zero-sum game, in apocalyptic terms, even when this is not the case (e.g., Saddam was no "new Hitler," and al-Qaeda was a terroristic threat, not an existential one).
If a negotiated cease-fire or some form of treaty cannot be had in this Ukraine war because one side believes it can win outright and overthrow the opposing government, or because some silent partners (the US and some of NATO have been quietly turning this into a proxy war against Russia, with US weapons and money while Ukraine sheds the blood and absorbs the destruction) wish the war to continue to bleed a perceived enemy, then we enter new and very dangerous waters.
What is the desired outcome of this war in the West? Russia suffers humiliation and rout? Ukraine takes back all the territory it's lost this year and since 2014? This is not practical. There ARE significant ethnic Russian populations involved, that is one of the causes of this war in the first place. Crimea, for starters, is heavily ethnic Russian and supported being taken back into Russia proper -- as it had been before 1954, when Krushchev gifted it to the Soviet state of Ukraine (a meaningless shuffle of internal USSR borders at the time).
If Putin is backed into a corner by Ukrainian forces backed and supplied by NATO, he is much more likely to punish Ukraine with either a full wartime mobilization OR nuclear weaponry. And then what?
Nobody wins if this war spins out of control -- not Ukraine, and not NATO or Russia. Zelensky worries me with recent declarations of pursuing a total victory that Putin cannot allow and his continual hectoring of NATO and the US to keep an endless supply of armaments and money to Ukraine to further these war aims threatens to drag the US into a war that no one has voted for or even thought carefully about. It's fun to mock the hapless Russkies getting theirs, maybe, but being played as cat's paws by Ukraine is not in the best interests of Americans either.
And WHERE is the UN in all this? I recall Arab-Israeli wars in the not-distant past, and the UN was always hastily summoned to pressure the warring parties to stop fighting. And the US and the USSR would try to temp down the temperature. Today, crickets. Is it because in the old days, it was in the interests of the competing superpowers to stop such crises before they blew out of control? Where is that belief today?
Putin, with the help of bad intel obviously didn't take in to account how ferociously the Ukrainians would fight to defend their homeland; or the degree to which NATO would support them with money and weapons, especially the tremendous help from the US. We grew bolder with lifting restrictions on the long range weapons when we saw that Russia was not going to retaliate in the way they threatened. Putin could still resort to attempt limited nuclear strikes as an act of sheer desperation but even he knows what a dangerous game that would be to play, which makes one wonder what would happen in their severely weakened position now if we were to go in with the full force of Nato to finish him off Of course we won't do that as it certainly could trigger WWIII but that would be suicide for Russia too. Half the civilized world would be wiped out with radiation spreading everywhere. Yet it is an interesting thought experiment. If we had the nerve we could call his bluff and say get out of Ukraine now and stay out or we're coming in. Hard to believe this is the samme Russia that the mighty German army couldn't beat in WWII, but of course the USSR was a much bigger country then. However I think part o their problem today is corruption, these oligarchs/arms manufacturers were taking big money for armaments build up and either delivering short on the orders or making substandard weapons, tanks and so on to save money and increase profits.
Sep 10, 2022·edited Sep 10, 2022Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
How quickly we forget, especially with the endless flood of London monarchical not-news and Washington lunatic politician noise. Thanks for the timely, informative reminder, Lucian.
Winter is coming. Europe will freeze if Putin has his way. In the spring of 2023 Putin will try another offensive and should it become too costly, cut a deal with the west. Russia can't fight multiyear war without serious loses and having to decide if the war has any historical value.
I read your morning update before I read this. For once, it was heartening to know the outcome ahead and this filled in gaps of my understanding. Thank you!
That was a phenomenal read and some really great news. God bless and give strength to the people of Ukraine. Loved the punchline, “Russia has used previous Security Council meetings to accuse the U.S. and NATO of fomenting the war in Ukraine.” What’s the Russian word for chutzpah?
Putin’s legacy project is looking like a failure of epic proportions. The only better news would be that he’s en route to The Hague.
It's so good to have your military knowledge and wisdom, Lucian, to keep us informed on this critical situation. Thanks!
These kinds of reports are thrilling to me. Ukraine must win. And winter is coming which I've seen said will be harder on the Russians.
All war is a slog. Your intelligent, persistent updates are appreciated.
👏 Ukraine! 🇺🇦
that ISW map might be a bit outdated. last night i saw a map showing two salients drawn from geolocating info, one long one projecting from Balakiia to the outskirts of Kupyansk. there were reports of artillary strikes in Kupyansk.
another shorter salient went in from about halfway down between Balakiia to Izium eastward to a point geolocated about NE of Izium.
it looks like UAF are chopping up the rails like Finnish "motti".
This is a turning point for Ukraine.
i saw a report that Ukrainian fast moving soldiers have come across dead russians where there had not yet been firefights, causing them to say they thought these were soldiers shot by russians as the men tried to flee.
Can you imagine what would have happened to Ukraine if Trump had won the 2020 election? Instead Biden managed to unify Europe, strengthen NATO, and supply Ukraine with necessary weapons at a cost much less than what we spent in Afghanistan.
I appreciate this analysis, Lucian.
I would like to interject a word of caution amid all this. Maybe even advocatus diaboli. The war between Russia and Ukraine is, at essence, a struggle between two distant (to us) European nations. Should it grow into a larger conflict, that holds enormous implications for the rest of Europe, NATO, and the US (not to mention all those countries affected by food and fuel shortages due to this war). In a more pragmatic era (I suppose I'm thinking of the 18th century power struggles in Europe), this war might have resolved itself relatively quickly. A few battles or sieges, and then peace is agreed on terms that give the victors something, the losers lick their wounds and wait for a better opportunity. But there is no threat of a conflagration that might destroy ALL warring parties. That would have been unthinkable.
Unfortunately, in these times we seem to view war as a zero-sum game, in apocalyptic terms, even when this is not the case (e.g., Saddam was no "new Hitler," and al-Qaeda was a terroristic threat, not an existential one).
If a negotiated cease-fire or some form of treaty cannot be had in this Ukraine war because one side believes it can win outright and overthrow the opposing government, or because some silent partners (the US and some of NATO have been quietly turning this into a proxy war against Russia, with US weapons and money while Ukraine sheds the blood and absorbs the destruction) wish the war to continue to bleed a perceived enemy, then we enter new and very dangerous waters.
What is the desired outcome of this war in the West? Russia suffers humiliation and rout? Ukraine takes back all the territory it's lost this year and since 2014? This is not practical. There ARE significant ethnic Russian populations involved, that is one of the causes of this war in the first place. Crimea, for starters, is heavily ethnic Russian and supported being taken back into Russia proper -- as it had been before 1954, when Krushchev gifted it to the Soviet state of Ukraine (a meaningless shuffle of internal USSR borders at the time).
If Putin is backed into a corner by Ukrainian forces backed and supplied by NATO, he is much more likely to punish Ukraine with either a full wartime mobilization OR nuclear weaponry. And then what?
Nobody wins if this war spins out of control -- not Ukraine, and not NATO or Russia. Zelensky worries me with recent declarations of pursuing a total victory that Putin cannot allow and his continual hectoring of NATO and the US to keep an endless supply of armaments and money to Ukraine to further these war aims threatens to drag the US into a war that no one has voted for or even thought carefully about. It's fun to mock the hapless Russkies getting theirs, maybe, but being played as cat's paws by Ukraine is not in the best interests of Americans either.
And WHERE is the UN in all this? I recall Arab-Israeli wars in the not-distant past, and the UN was always hastily summoned to pressure the warring parties to stop fighting. And the US and the USSR would try to temp down the temperature. Today, crickets. Is it because in the old days, it was in the interests of the competing superpowers to stop such crises before they blew out of control? Where is that belief today?
Putin, with the help of bad intel obviously didn't take in to account how ferociously the Ukrainians would fight to defend their homeland; or the degree to which NATO would support them with money and weapons, especially the tremendous help from the US. We grew bolder with lifting restrictions on the long range weapons when we saw that Russia was not going to retaliate in the way they threatened. Putin could still resort to attempt limited nuclear strikes as an act of sheer desperation but even he knows what a dangerous game that would be to play, which makes one wonder what would happen in their severely weakened position now if we were to go in with the full force of Nato to finish him off Of course we won't do that as it certainly could trigger WWIII but that would be suicide for Russia too. Half the civilized world would be wiped out with radiation spreading everywhere. Yet it is an interesting thought experiment. If we had the nerve we could call his bluff and say get out of Ukraine now and stay out or we're coming in. Hard to believe this is the samme Russia that the mighty German army couldn't beat in WWII, but of course the USSR was a much bigger country then. However I think part o their problem today is corruption, these oligarchs/arms manufacturers were taking big money for armaments build up and either delivering short on the orders or making substandard weapons, tanks and so on to save money and increase profits.
How quickly we forget, especially with the endless flood of London monarchical not-news and Washington lunatic politician noise. Thanks for the timely, informative reminder, Lucian.
Winter is coming. Europe will freeze if Putin has his way. In the spring of 2023 Putin will try another offensive and should it become too costly, cut a deal with the west. Russia can't fight multiyear war without serious loses and having to decide if the war has any historical value.
You explain developments and possible strategy in a way that I actually get it. The map helps a lot. Thank you!
I read your morning update before I read this. For once, it was heartening to know the outcome ahead and this filled in gaps of my understanding. Thank you!
That was a phenomenal read and some really great news. God bless and give strength to the people of Ukraine. Loved the punchline, “Russia has used previous Security Council meetings to accuse the U.S. and NATO of fomenting the war in Ukraine.” What’s the Russian word for chutzpah?
Putin’s legacy project is looking like a failure of epic proportions. The only better news would be that he’s en route to The Hague.