Tensions increased today as Vladimir Putin formally recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent “people’s republics” and ordered Russian forces into the eastern part of Ukraine for “peacekeeping functions.”
I am sure other observers have noticed this historical parallel. Putin is following the same expansionist model used by Hitler against Czechoslovakia in 1938 by making an imperial claim to provinces of a neighbor based on historical ethnic or cultural ties. Then seize the so called disputed land of said sovereign state to be reunited with the fatherland accompanied by talk of liberation or a peacekeeping action to stop evidence-free accusations of mistreatment by the hands of the victimized nation.
The take over of Crimea in 2014 became Chapter 7 in my Headline Calendar book/tapestry. (https://romytittel.com/books/headline-poem/) This was one of my observations at the time;
"Apparently those warships and naval bases in Crimea didn’t actually contain any weaponry as not a single shot was fired to defend against the Russians, only potted plants that were liberated by the staff as they marched their belongings back to the Ukraine."
The same playbook is being used today. The whole world was given the heads up when Putin met Xi before the Olympics where it was clearly determined that Xi would appreciate this invasion being started after his spectacle was finished and sure enough here we are.
One more important piece of the puzzle is Putin's need for a land bridge to Sevastopol.
By coincidence I had just read the following in a book published in 1940. "All war is the outcome of evil dsire, ambition, love of power and dominion "
There are different kinds of wars. There are wars that are fought over things like religion or the conflict of beliefs in one ideology or another. Those kinds of wars don't care who dies or what is left of the infrastructure of one country or the other. There are also wars that are fought for economic reasons. I don't want to destroy the country I am trying to take over if that is the case. And I don't want people running around trying to kill me and my buddies and create havoc in the economy and undermine the value of the resources I have taken. I also don't want the people in my country rising up in protest because their brothers and sisters are being killed indiscriminately by guerilla warfare. This whole gambit is interesting from the perspective that destroying the Ukraine and creating a war that will be funded by the wests support of a Ukranian underground does nothing to benefit Putin or his oligarch supporters. It will drain their coffers and bring them to a bad end. Of course, "people like Putin" don't get it. They are about only one person, until they disenfranchise the money and power that got them to where they are. In the end isn't it all about the money. As in our Democracy, the chickens eventually come home to roost and want to be fed.
There is an obvious solution: Let Russia have Donetsk and Luhansk. Those are majority Russian ethnic and Russia leaning anyway. That would leave Putin with a way to disengage while saving face, and it would relieve Ukraine of two hostile minority provinces. Western leaders could congratulate each other on their brilliant solution.
That X factor is indeed serious business, especially in the hands of a man so overcome with hubris he parades around puffing out his sad little chest and posing for cameras. The question is, has gone so completely nuts (as I hear many in Russia are now beginning to mutter) he'd blow up the entire globe? Because let's face it, a few nukes in Europe WOULD impact the globe in more ways than one might imagine.
Oh my. It doesn’t look as if anything is going to ameliorate the situation. The little bully is just baiting everyone. Many will die, as he flexes his “right” to rejoin the Soviet republic lost by the weak and powerless leaders before him. Thank you for the clarification. Although, my sweet dreams will be disturbed by the visions of nukes dancing in my head.
I think the 1938/Nazi/Sudetenland comparisons are overblown (as usually they are), and ignore the real issues of all those ethnic Russians that long lived in what became non-Russia USSR states after WWI. Russians were encouraged for decades to move to Ukraine, Kazahkstan, the Baltic states, and they retain sizeable Russian minorities. When the USSR broke up -- and who among all those highly paid Soviet experts in Washington foresaw THAT coming, I might ask? -- those people were stranded. What were they supposed to do? Ukraine did discriminate toward them and the US and NATO did meddle in Ukrainian politics and attempt to install a pro-NATO stooge leader before the Russians caught wise and squelched this, and took back the Crimea -- gifted to Ukraine by Russia in 1954, purely an administrative transfer in those times -- before NATO could set up its own naval bases in Sevastopol.
Putin may be many things, but he isn't stupid and he isn't blind. Everyone is giving Dubya Bush a free pass for his comment about looking into Putin's "soul" back when he was the Second Worst President Ever. A lot of miscalculations and foolishness and mendacity went into building this crisis and it involved more than cartoon villainy from the Hitler du jour. If tRump were in charge, he'd be looking the other way altogether and I wonder if the media would be fixated on this so intently as some example of wicked Commie perfidy?
Once the world gets used to the idea that the Donbas is gone and not coming back and everyone feels safe, (Remember Crimea?) Putin will want more. He sees the US political calendar and knows that should Democrats lose the congress in 2022 that friendly Republicans in 2023 will give Russia more 'historical lands' considering Republicans could not care less about Ukraine. Both Britain and France face elections in 2023 or 2024 considering how Boris Johnson survives scandals and President Macron can build a wall against France hard right. Convinced he will be the Czar in 2025 at the start of the Trump restoration or some Republican front man controlled by Mar a Largo Putin can wait and his 'Army in Place' in East Ukraine, he can roll west to Kyiv at his discretion. Stopping him now would mean brutal war because he stakes everything on western appeasement. Putin is not Hitler or Stalin, he will not blow up the world. But he is serious and he means it. Like a neighborhood shake down artist, he knows what he can do. Let us hope he does not miscalculate.
I am sure other observers have noticed this historical parallel. Putin is following the same expansionist model used by Hitler against Czechoslovakia in 1938 by making an imperial claim to provinces of a neighbor based on historical ethnic or cultural ties. Then seize the so called disputed land of said sovereign state to be reunited with the fatherland accompanied by talk of liberation or a peacekeeping action to stop evidence-free accusations of mistreatment by the hands of the victimized nation.
The take over of Crimea in 2014 became Chapter 7 in my Headline Calendar book/tapestry. (https://romytittel.com/books/headline-poem/) This was one of my observations at the time;
"Apparently those warships and naval bases in Crimea didn’t actually contain any weaponry as not a single shot was fired to defend against the Russians, only potted plants that were liberated by the staff as they marched their belongings back to the Ukraine."
The same playbook is being used today. The whole world was given the heads up when Putin met Xi before the Olympics where it was clearly determined that Xi would appreciate this invasion being started after his spectacle was finished and sure enough here we are.
One more important piece of the puzzle is Putin's need for a land bridge to Sevastopol.
By coincidence I had just read the following in a book published in 1940. "All war is the outcome of evil dsire, ambition, love of power and dominion "
There are different kinds of wars. There are wars that are fought over things like religion or the conflict of beliefs in one ideology or another. Those kinds of wars don't care who dies or what is left of the infrastructure of one country or the other. There are also wars that are fought for economic reasons. I don't want to destroy the country I am trying to take over if that is the case. And I don't want people running around trying to kill me and my buddies and create havoc in the economy and undermine the value of the resources I have taken. I also don't want the people in my country rising up in protest because their brothers and sisters are being killed indiscriminately by guerilla warfare. This whole gambit is interesting from the perspective that destroying the Ukraine and creating a war that will be funded by the wests support of a Ukranian underground does nothing to benefit Putin or his oligarch supporters. It will drain their coffers and bring them to a bad end. Of course, "people like Putin" don't get it. They are about only one person, until they disenfranchise the money and power that got them to where they are. In the end isn't it all about the money. As in our Democracy, the chickens eventually come home to roost and want to be fed.
Thank you Lucian. I appreciate your balanced reporting on and analysis of the Ukraine situation.
I wonder if our invasion of Iraq isn't more apropos than our adventures in Afghanistan. As always a good perspective on a horrible situation.
There is an obvious solution: Let Russia have Donetsk and Luhansk. Those are majority Russian ethnic and Russia leaning anyway. That would leave Putin with a way to disengage while saving face, and it would relieve Ukraine of two hostile minority provinces. Western leaders could congratulate each other on their brilliant solution.
Am I missing something here?
That X factor is indeed serious business, especially in the hands of a man so overcome with hubris he parades around puffing out his sad little chest and posing for cameras. The question is, has gone so completely nuts (as I hear many in Russia are now beginning to mutter) he'd blow up the entire globe? Because let's face it, a few nukes in Europe WOULD impact the globe in more ways than one might imagine.
Oh my. It doesn’t look as if anything is going to ameliorate the situation. The little bully is just baiting everyone. Many will die, as he flexes his “right” to rejoin the Soviet republic lost by the weak and powerless leaders before him. Thank you for the clarification. Although, my sweet dreams will be disturbed by the visions of nukes dancing in my head.
I think the 1938/Nazi/Sudetenland comparisons are overblown (as usually they are), and ignore the real issues of all those ethnic Russians that long lived in what became non-Russia USSR states after WWI. Russians were encouraged for decades to move to Ukraine, Kazahkstan, the Baltic states, and they retain sizeable Russian minorities. When the USSR broke up -- and who among all those highly paid Soviet experts in Washington foresaw THAT coming, I might ask? -- those people were stranded. What were they supposed to do? Ukraine did discriminate toward them and the US and NATO did meddle in Ukrainian politics and attempt to install a pro-NATO stooge leader before the Russians caught wise and squelched this, and took back the Crimea -- gifted to Ukraine by Russia in 1954, purely an administrative transfer in those times -- before NATO could set up its own naval bases in Sevastopol.
Putin may be many things, but he isn't stupid and he isn't blind. Everyone is giving Dubya Bush a free pass for his comment about looking into Putin's "soul" back when he was the Second Worst President Ever. A lot of miscalculations and foolishness and mendacity went into building this crisis and it involved more than cartoon villainy from the Hitler du jour. If tRump were in charge, he'd be looking the other way altogether and I wonder if the media would be fixated on this so intently as some example of wicked Commie perfidy?
"War of the Flea" time.
Once the world gets used to the idea that the Donbas is gone and not coming back and everyone feels safe, (Remember Crimea?) Putin will want more. He sees the US political calendar and knows that should Democrats lose the congress in 2022 that friendly Republicans in 2023 will give Russia more 'historical lands' considering Republicans could not care less about Ukraine. Both Britain and France face elections in 2023 or 2024 considering how Boris Johnson survives scandals and President Macron can build a wall against France hard right. Convinced he will be the Czar in 2025 at the start of the Trump restoration or some Republican front man controlled by Mar a Largo Putin can wait and his 'Army in Place' in East Ukraine, he can roll west to Kyiv at his discretion. Stopping him now would mean brutal war because he stakes everything on western appeasement. Putin is not Hitler or Stalin, he will not blow up the world. But he is serious and he means it. Like a neighborhood shake down artist, he knows what he can do. Let us hope he does not miscalculate.