Those howitzers now on their way to Ukraine would be worthless if all they could do is lob heavy shells into the air only to have them explode in the middle of empty fields of mud and grass.
True enough. Then there's the collateral benefit of destabilizing Putin's relationships with the SVR: denial and paranoia are Putin's trademarks; who's to say there's not a mole in the Kremlin? ;)
Vladimir Putin has to know that he's playing against a stacked deck. And yet, Putin's rage isn't allowing him to think rationally. He's doubling down, picking fights with Poland and Bulgaria by cutting off gas supplies, all but inviting Europe to find alternative gas suppliers. Poland is ready, with an LPG terminal ready to offload product from anywhere. Bulgaria isn't so lucky; but Putin's fit of pique simply underscores his gangster behavior. At the current rate of arms deliveries to Ukraine, let's look at what the situation looks like three, four months from now. In a war of attrition, the winner of the slugfest is the one who can keep the fight going at the highest level intensity that the participants could manage with full replenishment. Putin's already lost something like 800 heavy tanks, together with more than a thousand trucks and personnel carriers. His casualties in killed, wounded and MIAs are probably close to 50,000. Putin's original army of 150,000 soldiers is by now probably down to something close to half of its original strength.
Ukraine is now taking the fight to Putin on the Russian side of the border. That means that hard-hit units driven from northern and western Ukraine are not being replenished, and their combat effectiveness is severely compromised. Not a good sign when NATO intelligence feeds report their every move, and the alliance's pipeline of advanced weaponry is producing a cornucopia of hurt on Putin's artillery formations. The Biden Administration would like nothing better than to conduct a master class in how to take down Vladimir Putin, and anyone like him without touching off a nuclear exchange. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austen made it clear that American policy is to weaken Russia militarily. There's something awfully reminiscent about this war's resemblance to the Bosnian War of the 1990s. It's just bloodier and more violent. Beyond that, Putin's in the same class of punks and bullies we suppressed in mid-1990s.
We're past the tipping point, and from this vantage point, Putin's blown up his own line of retreat. He's just lost the one asset he needs to keep his war going, payment in rubles for gas deliveries. Putin's foreign exchange reserves are unavailable to him, and payments in US Dollars or Euros for current gas deliveries have the effect of an IRS garnishment of a defaulted taxpayer's bank account. There isn't a pawn shop big enough to loan Putin money to pay down his creditors. The Russian internal domestic economy is poised to take a huge hit, and that includes Putin's funds to carry on his vendetta against Ukraine. Those imports that are not on the international contraband list will now be unaffordable. He's busted.
I can’t find this kind of reporting anywhere else, and I subscribe to the Boston Globe, the NYT, the Washington Post and the Guardian. Thanks, Lucian. You’re essential.
I, too, read all four of the sources that you site. Imagine my disappointment this morning (Thursday) when NYTimes on line’s first report was a lengthy piece on the NFL draft! Next up, one paragraph on the war in Ukraine. Good thing the Times is cheap, cheap, cheap on-line or I’d dump it in a hot minute!
I'm glad that we're actively helping them with the intelligence, which is of course better than they could do themselves-after all, we spend enough money on it, someone should get the benefit!
A war by proxy, using satellites. Technology is wonderful. I doubt the Russians have half of what we have in orbit around the world.
Putin's military advisors should have made him aware that the West might have these kinds of intelligence capabilities, the generic information.
Several commentators have speculated that Putin expected his forces to march into in Lviv in three days and that Ukraine's government would flee, but that he had no Plan B if that failed.
I strongly suspect that Putin's military advisors had grave reservations about telling him anything he didn't want to hear, possibly because those who would have had both the knowledge and the nerve to tell him had been dismissed or given up awhile ago. Sound familiar?
When I was in Special Ops US intelligence in Germany during the Cold War, we also used intel to develop Escape and Evasion networks in Russia as well as to locate and confirm targets that the US might destroy with our tactical nucs, the SADM (Strategic Atomic Demolition Munitions) devices. The intel we developed came from over flights and equally as critical, assets on the ground inside the USSR. I would not be surprised if we (Ukraine) also had such assets today.
Let us hope we can continue to provide this real time intelligence as it is a real force multiplier Ukraine needs to offset Russia’s advantage in brute firepower and number of troops.
I also wonder if we also might have another form of intelligence which is helpful in more strategic sense. That would be moles in the Kremlin who would tip us off to decisions being made by Putin and his advisors?
Putin has made several major strategic mistakes. Let’s hope he continues to do so so The Ukrainians can turn a lot more Russian armament into junk piles. Less for NATO to worry about in Poland or the Baltics.
Austin made it clear what he wants to do. Biden chose wisely.
True enough. Then there's the collateral benefit of destabilizing Putin's relationships with the SVR: denial and paranoia are Putin's trademarks; who's to say there's not a mole in the Kremlin? ;)
Marvelous and detailed. You make the NY Times look weak. Thank you Sir.
Best, most interesting information I’ve read all day.
Vladimir Putin has to know that he's playing against a stacked deck. And yet, Putin's rage isn't allowing him to think rationally. He's doubling down, picking fights with Poland and Bulgaria by cutting off gas supplies, all but inviting Europe to find alternative gas suppliers. Poland is ready, with an LPG terminal ready to offload product from anywhere. Bulgaria isn't so lucky; but Putin's fit of pique simply underscores his gangster behavior. At the current rate of arms deliveries to Ukraine, let's look at what the situation looks like three, four months from now. In a war of attrition, the winner of the slugfest is the one who can keep the fight going at the highest level intensity that the participants could manage with full replenishment. Putin's already lost something like 800 heavy tanks, together with more than a thousand trucks and personnel carriers. His casualties in killed, wounded and MIAs are probably close to 50,000. Putin's original army of 150,000 soldiers is by now probably down to something close to half of its original strength.
Ukraine is now taking the fight to Putin on the Russian side of the border. That means that hard-hit units driven from northern and western Ukraine are not being replenished, and their combat effectiveness is severely compromised. Not a good sign when NATO intelligence feeds report their every move, and the alliance's pipeline of advanced weaponry is producing a cornucopia of hurt on Putin's artillery formations. The Biden Administration would like nothing better than to conduct a master class in how to take down Vladimir Putin, and anyone like him without touching off a nuclear exchange. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austen made it clear that American policy is to weaken Russia militarily. There's something awfully reminiscent about this war's resemblance to the Bosnian War of the 1990s. It's just bloodier and more violent. Beyond that, Putin's in the same class of punks and bullies we suppressed in mid-1990s.
We're past the tipping point, and from this vantage point, Putin's blown up his own line of retreat. He's just lost the one asset he needs to keep his war going, payment in rubles for gas deliveries. Putin's foreign exchange reserves are unavailable to him, and payments in US Dollars or Euros for current gas deliveries have the effect of an IRS garnishment of a defaulted taxpayer's bank account. There isn't a pawn shop big enough to loan Putin money to pay down his creditors. The Russian internal domestic economy is poised to take a huge hit, and that includes Putin's funds to carry on his vendetta against Ukraine. Those imports that are not on the international contraband list will now be unaffordable. He's busted.
I can’t find this kind of reporting anywhere else, and I subscribe to the Boston Globe, the NYT, the Washington Post and the Guardian. Thanks, Lucian. You’re essential.
I, too, read all four of the sources that you site. Imagine my disappointment this morning (Thursday) when NYTimes on line’s first report was a lengthy piece on the NFL draft! Next up, one paragraph on the war in Ukraine. Good thing the Times is cheap, cheap, cheap on-line or I’d dump it in a hot minute!
This is fascinating. Am I turning into a weapons nerd or what?
Let's watch and see whose Treasury is emptied first.
That’s a real good news story!
Excellent column!
I'm glad that we're actively helping them with the intelligence, which is of course better than they could do themselves-after all, we spend enough money on it, someone should get the benefit!
A war by proxy, using satellites. Technology is wonderful. I doubt the Russians have half of what we have in orbit around the world.
I guess corruption does have a real cost, then.
Putin's military advisors should have made him aware that the West might have these kinds of intelligence capabilities, the generic information.
Several commentators have speculated that Putin expected his forces to march into in Lviv in three days and that Ukraine's government would flee, but that he had no Plan B if that failed.
I strongly suspect that Putin's military advisors had grave reservations about telling him anything he didn't want to hear, possibly because those who would have had both the knowledge and the nerve to tell him had been dismissed or given up awhile ago. Sound familiar?
Thanks for this information.
When I was in Special Ops US intelligence in Germany during the Cold War, we also used intel to develop Escape and Evasion networks in Russia as well as to locate and confirm targets that the US might destroy with our tactical nucs, the SADM (Strategic Atomic Demolition Munitions) devices. The intel we developed came from over flights and equally as critical, assets on the ground inside the USSR. I would not be surprised if we (Ukraine) also had such assets today.
you've given us a great eagle-eyed view of the importance of intelligence we can give Ukraine to help fight off their invader.
i thoroughly enjoy the extra insight you add to what other news and reports floating around us.
thank you, LKTIV
Military technology is amazing. Makes me think that the trillions the US taxpayer has spent since WWII hasn't been totally wasted.
Let us hope we can continue to provide this real time intelligence as it is a real force multiplier Ukraine needs to offset Russia’s advantage in brute firepower and number of troops.
I also wonder if we also might have another form of intelligence which is helpful in more strategic sense. That would be moles in the Kremlin who would tip us off to decisions being made by Putin and his advisors?
Putin has made several major strategic mistakes. Let’s hope he continues to do so so The Ukrainians can turn a lot more Russian armament into junk piles. Less for NATO to worry about in Poland or the Baltics.
Austin made it clear what he wants to do. Biden chose wisely.