Let’s get this out of the way upfront: The information in this story was not leaked to me from within the intelligence community, nor did I speak to a source or sources with inside access to the CIA, NSA, nor did anyone close to someone working for any of the nation’s intelligence agencies talk to me.
What's unsaid in this fine piece is how so many wannabe fascistas in the US want this same sort of Soviet/Russian arrangement here for the "free" press. If Trump or the trumpie clones had their way, this style of compliant, propagandist media is exactly what they'd set in place. Then we, too, could enjoy self-inflicted disasters caused by too much group-think and wishful fantasizing and denialism.
“One of the great problems with authoritarian systems is that the rot is always there inside, but it’s unseen until things really start to go wrong, like a dozen generals getting killed on the battlefield or the biggest ship in your navy sinking to the bottom of the sea while you have your factotums going around saying it was a fire onboard that sunk it.”
Really? I think you're looking much too, too far afield for the leaker. These things are closely held at the Supreme Court, even for the Russian intelligence community to infiltrate. I think it will be found to be an American with access to the document with a lean toward one side or the other. There are two credible motives here... a right winger who wanted to hold the judges to account so to them to stick to their votes. Or a left-leaning person who wanted to raise a red-alert at what was about to come down. I lean toward the former.
Thank you. I was kidding. Everybody knows it was the Xerox operator who took a $50 bribe to make an extra copy and hand it over to Politico. (Obviously, I feel the need to label this, too, as a joke, lest I get a lecture on how SCOTUS opinions are shared digitally, not via Xerox hard copies. THIS IS A JOKE!)
It's just amazing the intelligence triple whammy-because now we're hearing from other intelligence sources aside from our own that the Russian troops are sabotaging their own weapons and vehicles-then leaving the battlefield. In other words, they're deserting by the battalion load and nobody can tell how many they have left.
Putin is stupid to have done the shut down of the media-otherwise he would know before (or even when) we did what was going on.
As Sun Tzu stated " “Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.” (The Art of War).
Intelligence reports are a way of breaking the enemy without ever engaging in a fight. If one side knows things the other side does not, it's a great advantage to use it against their opponent.
First of all, you and Tracy have EARNED my trust by speaking to me through these newsletters for over a year, so yes I believe what you have to say and I “thank you” for that. Second, I agree, authoritarians always end up burning their house down with themselves inside of it. It’s only a matter of time. Unfortunately, they burn a lot of other things to the ground in the process.
"It doesn’t even seem like it’s a fair fight, does it?"
No. No it doesn't. We're hitting Putin and his minions at every vulnerability. But war is not a gentleman's duel. Although as Heinlein noted "Alls fair in love and war - what a contemptable LIE!", "Fair" isn't a big part of the equation, and mind-f**king the Russians is well within the scope of Just War theory.
We need to keep it real. Ukraine is doing okay, but they're not the Golden State Warriors or the Boston Celtics. War is a series of ups and down, and win when you can and lose when shit happens. What counts is holding it together, sharing our grief, but resolute in spirit. Bad news needs to be admitted. As Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times, talk less. The scoreboard tells the story. Losers shouldn't whine, and winners shouldn't brag. Those old enough to remember Vietnam will forever be reminded by William C. Westmoreland's infamous 'body counts' of enemy casualties. Gauche; and not to put too fine a point on it, we lost. We don't need to do that. A lot of innocent people are hurting and dying, and we ought to be focusing on them.
Thank you. Wonderful to read. This article clears things up. We were just talking about the backpedal on intel about the Moskva. We couldn’t understand the conflicting reports.
I subscribe to WAPO. In the comments section of the article on how we helped pinpoint the location of the missile cruiser the Ukrainians sank were hundreds of demands the paper and/or reporters of the story be arrested for leaking classified information and thrown in prison..
It seems a goodly portion of our population either does not understand how the information war is to be conducted or agrees that we too should operate as an authoritarian society. Probably both?
In WWII the Brits broke the German ULTRA code and it helped win the war because , evidently, the German High Command never figured it out. Now IMHO that is the kind of secret you must keep. But, in this new kind of war we are not reading Top Secret documents; we are simply reading what is out there in plain sight (yes, to be sure some of it from orbit) or on open comm lines. That is the kind of information even the dumbest enemy should be able to figure out is available without any skullduggery.
Now, what is not so easy to figure out and I am betting is being guarded within the bowels of the CIA as TOP TOP DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION SECRET are the moles we have inside Putin's Kremlin and puzzle palaces. It is those sources which will in the end do the most long term damage because they are the ones who can unravel what Putin is really thinking and what those around him are advising. Those sources like ULTRA. Let us hope they stay buried and not in a literal sense.
What happened to "loose lips sink ships?" Seems the media is obsessed with "show and tell" or "see how smart we are" and do not respect the grave consequences to human life by releasing sensitive information.
The media is reporting what intelligence sources are leaking to them. The intelligence sources are leaking because it serves their purpose: mindfucking Putin.
"One of the great problems with authoritarian systems is that the rot is always there inside, but it’s unseen until things really start to go wrong, like a dozen generals getting killed on the battlefield or the biggest ship in your navy sinking to the bottom of the sea while you have your factotums going around saying it was a fire onboard that sunk it."
Lucian, you are a genius and your essays always have a calming effect on my stress. If only thoughtful logic and reasoning could save us from drumpf, death-santis, fucker Carlson, gym Jordan, and all the other white supremacist ilk.
There is a new article on this military history blog (and ancient history!) that I follow that I expect many here will value -- this installment is on tanks and tank warfare, the evolution and application of, with attention to recent developments in Ukraine. https://acoup.blog/2022/05/06/collections-when-is-a-tank-not-a-tank/
What's unsaid in this fine piece is how so many wannabe fascistas in the US want this same sort of Soviet/Russian arrangement here for the "free" press. If Trump or the trumpie clones had their way, this style of compliant, propagandist media is exactly what they'd set in place. Then we, too, could enjoy self-inflicted disasters caused by too much group-think and wishful fantasizing and denialism.
“One of the great problems with authoritarian systems is that the rot is always there inside, but it’s unseen until things really start to go wrong, like a dozen generals getting killed on the battlefield or the biggest ship in your navy sinking to the bottom of the sea while you have your factotums going around saying it was a fire onboard that sunk it.”
Wasn’t this already the Trump Whitehouse?
Putin got even by leaking the Alito abortion draft.
🤣😂🤣
Really? I think you're looking much too, too far afield for the leaker. These things are closely held at the Supreme Court, even for the Russian intelligence community to infiltrate. I think it will be found to be an American with access to the document with a lean toward one side or the other. There are two credible motives here... a right winger who wanted to hold the judges to account so to them to stick to their votes. Or a left-leaning person who wanted to raise a red-alert at what was about to come down. I lean toward the former.
I think he was kidding.
Thank you. I was kidding. Everybody knows it was the Xerox operator who took a $50 bribe to make an extra copy and hand it over to Politico. (Obviously, I feel the need to label this, too, as a joke, lest I get a lecture on how SCOTUS opinions are shared digitally, not via Xerox hard copies. THIS IS A JOKE!)
It's just amazing the intelligence triple whammy-because now we're hearing from other intelligence sources aside from our own that the Russian troops are sabotaging their own weapons and vehicles-then leaving the battlefield. In other words, they're deserting by the battalion load and nobody can tell how many they have left.
Putin is stupid to have done the shut down of the media-otherwise he would know before (or even when) we did what was going on.
As Sun Tzu stated " “Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.” (The Art of War).
Intelligence reports are a way of breaking the enemy without ever engaging in a fight. If one side knows things the other side does not, it's a great advantage to use it against their opponent.
First of all, you and Tracy have EARNED my trust by speaking to me through these newsletters for over a year, so yes I believe what you have to say and I “thank you” for that. Second, I agree, authoritarians always end up burning their house down with themselves inside of it. It’s only a matter of time. Unfortunately, they burn a lot of other things to the ground in the process.
"It doesn’t even seem like it’s a fair fight, does it?"
No. No it doesn't. We're hitting Putin and his minions at every vulnerability. But war is not a gentleman's duel. Although as Heinlein noted "Alls fair in love and war - what a contemptable LIE!", "Fair" isn't a big part of the equation, and mind-f**king the Russians is well within the scope of Just War theory.
There’s a reason the intel business is called the Wilderness of Mirrors.
It drives many practitioners to an early grave.
We need to keep it real. Ukraine is doing okay, but they're not the Golden State Warriors or the Boston Celtics. War is a series of ups and down, and win when you can and lose when shit happens. What counts is holding it together, sharing our grief, but resolute in spirit. Bad news needs to be admitted. As Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times, talk less. The scoreboard tells the story. Losers shouldn't whine, and winners shouldn't brag. Those old enough to remember Vietnam will forever be reminded by William C. Westmoreland's infamous 'body counts' of enemy casualties. Gauche; and not to put too fine a point on it, we lost. We don't need to do that. A lot of innocent people are hurting and dying, and we ought to be focusing on them.
Ugh…Westmoreland!
Sounds like you get it.
Thank you. Wonderful to read. This article clears things up. We were just talking about the backpedal on intel about the Moskva. We couldn’t understand the conflicting reports.
I subscribe to WAPO. In the comments section of the article on how we helped pinpoint the location of the missile cruiser the Ukrainians sank were hundreds of demands the paper and/or reporters of the story be arrested for leaking classified information and thrown in prison..
It seems a goodly portion of our population either does not understand how the information war is to be conducted or agrees that we too should operate as an authoritarian society. Probably both?
In WWII the Brits broke the German ULTRA code and it helped win the war because , evidently, the German High Command never figured it out. Now IMHO that is the kind of secret you must keep. But, in this new kind of war we are not reading Top Secret documents; we are simply reading what is out there in plain sight (yes, to be sure some of it from orbit) or on open comm lines. That is the kind of information even the dumbest enemy should be able to figure out is available without any skullduggery.
Now, what is not so easy to figure out and I am betting is being guarded within the bowels of the CIA as TOP TOP DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION SECRET are the moles we have inside Putin's Kremlin and puzzle palaces. It is those sources which will in the end do the most long term damage because they are the ones who can unravel what Putin is really thinking and what those around him are advising. Those sources like ULTRA. Let us hope they stay buried and not in a literal sense.
This. Is. Brilliant!
What happened to "loose lips sink ships?" Seems the media is obsessed with "show and tell" or "see how smart we are" and do not respect the grave consequences to human life by releasing sensitive information.
The media is reporting what intelligence sources are leaking to them. The intelligence sources are leaking because it serves their purpose: mindfucking Putin.
"One of the great problems with authoritarian systems is that the rot is always there inside, but it’s unseen until things really start to go wrong, like a dozen generals getting killed on the battlefield or the biggest ship in your navy sinking to the bottom of the sea while you have your factotums going around saying it was a fire onboard that sunk it."
Lucian, you are a genius and your essays always have a calming effect on my stress. If only thoughtful logic and reasoning could save us from drumpf, death-santis, fucker Carlson, gym Jordan, and all the other white supremacist ilk.
A Hall of mirrors
This was eye opening and for me, a perspective I never considered.
There is a new article on this military history blog (and ancient history!) that I follow that I expect many here will value -- this installment is on tanks and tank warfare, the evolution and application of, with attention to recent developments in Ukraine. https://acoup.blog/2022/05/06/collections-when-is-a-tank-not-a-tank/
The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It https://nyti.ms/3vNf7mx