Winning? Air defense systems and military aircraft first and foremost. Without that, even if Putin led a lousy ground war he will have led an impressive terror campaign against defenseless civilians. But even if Ukraine wins - i.e. permanently blocks Russia from occupying Ukrainian territory, the win won't hold unless (and this from Zelensky in April 15 Atlantic article): "If Ukraine is to have a secure future ... they (Russians) need help understanding their own history, what they have done to their neighbors. At the moment ...“they are afraid to admit guilt.” He compares them (Russians) to “alcoholics [who] don’t admit that they are alcoholics.” ... to recover, “they have to learn to accept the truth.” Russians need ... “leaders who can then come in and say, ‘Yes, we did that.’ That’s how it worked in Germany.”
Zelensky is right - history keeps repeating itself in Russia because apparently Russians drink their own vodka far too much for their own good. Maybe they should read a few books - history books.
NATO has to up the cost by giving Ukraine missiles and bombs that are truly devastating and dare Putin to act. Make the senseless bombing cause for serious response and make it clear that NATO will not forgive or forget for a generation. Vicious slaughter has to be stopped and when Russia realizes that the West means it, perhaps the generals in Moscow will act to save their future. Of course the sad truth is Russia will probably do to Ukraine what they did in Grozny. Can NATO allow such ruin without losing respect from everyone?
Lucian has a talent for presenting clear and concise picture, often with details I haven't seen elsewhere;
;Regarding the outcome: That is a question I have been wondering too, what will the aftermath of the war (war crimes) look like? Thousands of Ukrainians pouring back into the country, many with families torn asunder with some members never to be seen again, or alive but disabled. ,No home to come back to, all possessions lost. No way to get back to earning a lic ving until business can get reestablished.; perhaps having to live in temporary communal settings until residential dwellings can be built after all the rubble is cleared, Imagine the cost to rebuild an entire country ? Russia should pay for it since they caused the damage. WE could start with selling off all the confiscated billions and luxury yachts and homes of the oligarchs. although unsure what the legalities would be, Of course that is assuming Ukraine wins. It' hard to imagine them ever being completely beaten no matter what. Putin is paying a very heavy price already as Lucian so well pointed out, and if he loses to the point of giving up the fight and slinking back to Russia a beaten man I'm sure he would be finished politically. The problem is in his mind losing is not an option and that is when he could really lose all that's left of his composure. And we all know what that could mean as a last resort of a very desperate and dangerous man: Nuclear!
Another informative, great read, Lucian. I hope you and the generals are right. But I fear we and NATO are indeed "going to fight to the last Ukrainian," as it's put by the cynics. Mud season or not, the flat plains and terror tactics favor Russian tanks and long range artillery. Without air cover, especially, it's hard to see how Ukraine can manage to hold on without a mass annihilation, much less score a decisive battlefield win. But God bless 'em.
This is the bleakest and most depressing letter I’ve ever read. These poor people have been through enough, and in my opinion it’s at the point where we (NATO) should bend the rules and help save what’s left of Ukraine. Is this a possibility? Can we realize we are all one?
As much as I hate the idea of the Russians completely destroying Ukraine, I have to believe that they (Putin) will have no such qualms. It will be their version of Carthage, and they will do whatever it takes to emerge with a "victory". I despair of the west doing anything that will prevent this slaughter from happening, or, as one writer notes below, engage in world class handwringing.
In my darkest moments I look at all the buildings and homes that have been reduced to rubble…and I think “is this the end of their civilization? How can this be?” But then a sobering thought enters my head that says “they will rebuild and they will carry on”. Traumatized for sure, but stronger for their survival.
There's no doubt that Ukraine is fighting to the death for their country..and Russia is fighting for the same thing.
The end looks grisly, just like the bombed out cities in Germany, and other countries did in WWII-and unless Putin is removed from power sooner rather than later, the Ukrainians won't be able to rebuild until he is.
Because he's quite literally willing to bomb the entire country into rubble if he wants to do so. He's past the point of caring what the world thinks of him. Just what the Russian history books will say about him, because he knows in his heart he isn't achieving glory, and at least they will be able to perpetuate the lies he tells everyone now.
I just wonder when the next coup is going to start-I've read where some very influential people are getting very close to bolting because they don't dare tell Putin the truth. It'll be their death.
Regarding trucks stacked end to end, a retired Marine general once commented to me about the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor that our airplanes were situated wingtip to wingtip. But we learned from that.
I fear that if his ground forces are stalled Putin will skip right over his chemistry set and resort to tactical or low-yield nuclear weapons. I imagine the West’s reaction will be world-class hand-wringing.
George, I have to agree' It is great we all pitched in to help Ukraine with arms and humanitarian aid, but something seems not quite right that we are not just watching a war between two countries, we are watching the mass murder of thousands of unarmed civilians, essentially genocide take place and n and not stepping in to stop it. Russia is not the mighty power it was and we could easily end this thing in a very short time. The argument is of course that if we go too far Putin will use nukes. Well that could happen regardless, meantime the rape. murders and pillage goes on day after day. It is no different than how a crowd will gather around a single person being attacked in the street and doing nothing to interfere, Imagine, a woman is being attacked by a street thug with a knife, a crowd quickly gathers, mesmerized, spellbound, watching to see what he might do. A big burly man moves as though to help but merely throws her a penknife to defend herself. She makes a brave attempt but the thug slashes her throat and she slowly bleeds to death. The women is Ukraine, the thug, Putin, the bug burly man NATO/USA.
Hope, pray, donate…is that all we can do? Ukrainian people fighting and those directly supporting refugees are amazing. Putin IS a war criminal. It becomes more heartbreaking daily.
LOVE Bill Taylor. You walk among the best Lucian! Just finished reading "Lessons from the Edge" by Marie Yovanovitch. So appreciate the hidden heroes of our State Department.
I am afraid I still don't understand what a Ukrainian win would look like. I am not sure I want to if it would look like the destruction of Russia by NATO. Can you even imagine such a thing? Would mad, frightened Putin settle for less? What would it take to create a negotiated peace? Are there any statesmen or stateswomen in the world capable of it?
Winning? Air defense systems and military aircraft first and foremost. Without that, even if Putin led a lousy ground war he will have led an impressive terror campaign against defenseless civilians. But even if Ukraine wins - i.e. permanently blocks Russia from occupying Ukrainian territory, the win won't hold unless (and this from Zelensky in April 15 Atlantic article): "If Ukraine is to have a secure future ... they (Russians) need help understanding their own history, what they have done to their neighbors. At the moment ...“they are afraid to admit guilt.” He compares them (Russians) to “alcoholics [who] don’t admit that they are alcoholics.” ... to recover, “they have to learn to accept the truth.” Russians need ... “leaders who can then come in and say, ‘Yes, we did that.’ That’s how it worked in Germany.”
Zelensky is right - history keeps repeating itself in Russia because apparently Russians drink their own vodka far too much for their own good. Maybe they should read a few books - history books.
NATO has to up the cost by giving Ukraine missiles and bombs that are truly devastating and dare Putin to act. Make the senseless bombing cause for serious response and make it clear that NATO will not forgive or forget for a generation. Vicious slaughter has to be stopped and when Russia realizes that the West means it, perhaps the generals in Moscow will act to save their future. Of course the sad truth is Russia will probably do to Ukraine what they did in Grozny. Can NATO allow such ruin without losing respect from everyone?
Lucian has a talent for presenting clear and concise picture, often with details I haven't seen elsewhere;
;Regarding the outcome: That is a question I have been wondering too, what will the aftermath of the war (war crimes) look like? Thousands of Ukrainians pouring back into the country, many with families torn asunder with some members never to be seen again, or alive but disabled. ,No home to come back to, all possessions lost. No way to get back to earning a lic ving until business can get reestablished.; perhaps having to live in temporary communal settings until residential dwellings can be built after all the rubble is cleared, Imagine the cost to rebuild an entire country ? Russia should pay for it since they caused the damage. WE could start with selling off all the confiscated billions and luxury yachts and homes of the oligarchs. although unsure what the legalities would be, Of course that is assuming Ukraine wins. It' hard to imagine them ever being completely beaten no matter what. Putin is paying a very heavy price already as Lucian so well pointed out, and if he loses to the point of giving up the fight and slinking back to Russia a beaten man I'm sure he would be finished politically. The problem is in his mind losing is not an option and that is when he could really lose all that's left of his composure. And we all know what that could mean as a last resort of a very desperate and dangerous man: Nuclear!
Another informative, great read, Lucian. I hope you and the generals are right. But I fear we and NATO are indeed "going to fight to the last Ukrainian," as it's put by the cynics. Mud season or not, the flat plains and terror tactics favor Russian tanks and long range artillery. Without air cover, especially, it's hard to see how Ukraine can manage to hold on without a mass annihilation, much less score a decisive battlefield win. But God bless 'em.
This is the bleakest and most depressing letter I’ve ever read. These poor people have been through enough, and in my opinion it’s at the point where we (NATO) should bend the rules and help save what’s left of Ukraine. Is this a possibility? Can we realize we are all one?
As much as I hate the idea of the Russians completely destroying Ukraine, I have to believe that they (Putin) will have no such qualms. It will be their version of Carthage, and they will do whatever it takes to emerge with a "victory". I despair of the west doing anything that will prevent this slaughter from happening, or, as one writer notes below, engage in world class handwringing.
In my darkest moments I look at all the buildings and homes that have been reduced to rubble…and I think “is this the end of their civilization? How can this be?” But then a sobering thought enters my head that says “they will rebuild and they will carry on”. Traumatized for sure, but stronger for their survival.
There's no doubt that Ukraine is fighting to the death for their country..and Russia is fighting for the same thing.
The end looks grisly, just like the bombed out cities in Germany, and other countries did in WWII-and unless Putin is removed from power sooner rather than later, the Ukrainians won't be able to rebuild until he is.
Because he's quite literally willing to bomb the entire country into rubble if he wants to do so. He's past the point of caring what the world thinks of him. Just what the Russian history books will say about him, because he knows in his heart he isn't achieving glory, and at least they will be able to perpetuate the lies he tells everyone now.
I just wonder when the next coup is going to start-I've read where some very influential people are getting very close to bolting because they don't dare tell Putin the truth. It'll be their death.
Regarding trucks stacked end to end, a retired Marine general once commented to me about the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor that our airplanes were situated wingtip to wingtip. But we learned from that.
I fear that if his ground forces are stalled Putin will skip right over his chemistry set and resort to tactical or low-yield nuclear weapons. I imagine the West’s reaction will be world-class hand-wringing.
George, I have to agree' It is great we all pitched in to help Ukraine with arms and humanitarian aid, but something seems not quite right that we are not just watching a war between two countries, we are watching the mass murder of thousands of unarmed civilians, essentially genocide take place and n and not stepping in to stop it. Russia is not the mighty power it was and we could easily end this thing in a very short time. The argument is of course that if we go too far Putin will use nukes. Well that could happen regardless, meantime the rape. murders and pillage goes on day after day. It is no different than how a crowd will gather around a single person being attacked in the street and doing nothing to interfere, Imagine, a woman is being attacked by a street thug with a knife, a crowd quickly gathers, mesmerized, spellbound, watching to see what he might do. A big burly man moves as though to help but merely throws her a penknife to defend herself. She makes a brave attempt but the thug slashes her throat and she slowly bleeds to death. The women is Ukraine, the thug, Putin, the bug burly man NATO/USA.
Hope, pray, donate…is that all we can do? Ukrainian people fighting and those directly supporting refugees are amazing. Putin IS a war criminal. It becomes more heartbreaking daily.
Again, the Russian attack is too broad. What fools.
LOVE Bill Taylor. You walk among the best Lucian! Just finished reading "Lessons from the Edge" by Marie Yovanovitch. So appreciate the hidden heroes of our State Department.
Winning won’t repeat itself unless the instigator suffers the same fate as before.
I am afraid I still don't understand what a Ukrainian win would look like. I am not sure I want to if it would look like the destruction of Russia by NATO. Can you even imagine such a thing? Would mad, frightened Putin settle for less? What would it take to create a negotiated peace? Are there any statesmen or stateswomen in the world capable of it?
Ukraine won’t win. It may survive but at a horrible cost that cannot be over one easily.