Bulldozers and other heavy earthmoving equipment are not what you immediately think of when considering an army invading a foreign nation, but they are enormously important if that army wants to defend itself.
Looks like there's a fuel tanker in the lower center of the picture. (Red cab, longer carriage than the equipment and troop trucks.) A very juicy target which, when set ablaze, will bring out a lot of confusion and relatively easy targets for small arms fire. Hope the Ukrainians are seeing the same thing and take full advantage of it.
Appreciate your expertise. I’d never have thought of earth moving equipment being used in warfare to build berms. That’s certainly a sensible procedure. Beats digging foxholes, I’m sure. Your assumption that it’s due to overconfidence sounds very reasonable.
Day two news reports last week stated that several hundred Russian soldiers has surrendered to Ukranian soldiers, saying that they "were told they were only sent on a reconnaissance mission" and that they "were not prepared to kill civilians." Additional news report stated that Russian law says only volunteers can serve in such an invasion, but the soldiers who surrendered were poorly-trained conscripts sent to the front. Probably not eager to engage.
This whole thing is so amazing. There's so much that seems encouraging for the Ukrainians, then you see civilians, women and children, being bombed and murdered. There are reports that many of the Russian soldiers are suffering very low morale. One can only hope that's true though our own Americans in Vietnam suffered that but still fought on. And Putin is completely isolated and if ever anyone had completely turned himself in a loathsome pariah, he has managed that trading in decades of "maybe he is and maybe he isn't as bad as you think." I have a friend living in London who says the news there is how many Europeans are going into Ukraine to fight with the Ukrainians. My prayer is he doesn't kill Zelensky. It is said that's on his kill list and he is really unhinged now. And very isolated. Even from his own advisors.
Why isn’t NATO doing more to provide the weapons that the Ukrainians can use to hit a stationary force of vehicles and personnel? They should be sitting ducks. Aren’t there any long range weapons that should be available to do that? I am so sick of hearing about “resolutions” to denounce Putin and the Russian incursion. Need more concrete action and resources to stop them!!
Saw lots of trucks but no tanks or artillery in the satellite photos. Not clear how they add to their combat power. Also note, the Russian army suffers from many of the same problems the Soviet army had. Poor training at all levels, no NCOs, lack of initiative at all levels. Does not make for a successful attack. We always expected the Soviet attack on NATO to be much worse than my analysis suggested. Read my report for the HASC "Soviet Readiness for War"
I'm reading Ho Chi Minh's bio now and it shows a determined, outgunned force can and will prevail through military jiu-jitsu and inspired leadership, as well as an intelligent combination of guerilla and in-force strategy.
But you're undoubtedly right about how naked the Russians are in leaving their positions so open-but is it incompetence or a ruse to draw Ukrainians out to capture or kill them? The Trojan Horse theory works as well here.
I hope it's just massive incompetence but I wouldn't put it past the commanders to do the sneaky stuff. They went to war school, too, and took tactics for wartime as a college course.
Besides, they claim they're not even using 1/3rd of their weapons, and I'm wondering if that's true or not. The best soldiers never use the best of it first, that's a stupid mistake. Always leave something in reserve.
But you're doing a hell of a job teaching all of us what you learned at West Point.
(1) Basic military planning and strategy is incompetent, no bulldozers, no air cover, etc. etc.
(2) Preparation of Russian soldiers is incompetent.
Mainstream media have published many accounts of young Russian soldiers saying they were never told they were going into combat (“reconnaissance missions”), and never told they were being sent into the Ukraine, which is like Mexico invading California, or the U.S. invading Canada. Morale must be lower than low. Many soldiers have surrendered as soon as they discovered they were going into combat, in a sister country no less.
Thank you for your information. It’s very helpful to a non-military person to have actual expert analysis of troop and equipment movements, presence or lack thereof and likely next moves. Reassuring or not, it’s good to know.
Don’t see many troops either (admittedly a tough thing to see, except larger gatherings). The Russians haven’t moved much earth moving equipment at any time. Curious and curiouser!
Looks like there's a fuel tanker in the lower center of the picture. (Red cab, longer carriage than the equipment and troop trucks.) A very juicy target which, when set ablaze, will bring out a lot of confusion and relatively easy targets for small arms fire. Hope the Ukrainians are seeing the same thing and take full advantage of it.
Appreciate your expertise. I’d never have thought of earth moving equipment being used in warfare to build berms. That’s certainly a sensible procedure. Beats digging foxholes, I’m sure. Your assumption that it’s due to overconfidence sounds very reasonable.
Day two news reports last week stated that several hundred Russian soldiers has surrendered to Ukranian soldiers, saying that they "were told they were only sent on a reconnaissance mission" and that they "were not prepared to kill civilians." Additional news report stated that Russian law says only volunteers can serve in such an invasion, but the soldiers who surrendered were poorly-trained conscripts sent to the front. Probably not eager to engage.
This whole thing is so amazing. There's so much that seems encouraging for the Ukrainians, then you see civilians, women and children, being bombed and murdered. There are reports that many of the Russian soldiers are suffering very low morale. One can only hope that's true though our own Americans in Vietnam suffered that but still fought on. And Putin is completely isolated and if ever anyone had completely turned himself in a loathsome pariah, he has managed that trading in decades of "maybe he is and maybe he isn't as bad as you think." I have a friend living in London who says the news there is how many Europeans are going into Ukraine to fight with the Ukrainians. My prayer is he doesn't kill Zelensky. It is said that's on his kill list and he is really unhinged now. And very isolated. Even from his own advisors.
Seems like Ukrainians would simply blow up a 100 yard section of this highway.
I have wondered why the Russian tanks have not been attacked, given how open they appear--what prime targets. 40 miles of these things?
Wait till night. If they're in the open the Ukranians can't defend then.
Why isn’t NATO doing more to provide the weapons that the Ukrainians can use to hit a stationary force of vehicles and personnel? They should be sitting ducks. Aren’t there any long range weapons that should be available to do that? I am so sick of hearing about “resolutions” to denounce Putin and the Russian incursion. Need more concrete action and resources to stop them!!
Thank you for your analysis, it is really shedding light on the situation for me in a way conventional news is not.
Saw lots of trucks but no tanks or artillery in the satellite photos. Not clear how they add to their combat power. Also note, the Russian army suffers from many of the same problems the Soviet army had. Poor training at all levels, no NCOs, lack of initiative at all levels. Does not make for a successful attack. We always expected the Soviet attack on NATO to be much worse than my analysis suggested. Read my report for the HASC "Soviet Readiness for War"
I'm reading Ho Chi Minh's bio now and it shows a determined, outgunned force can and will prevail through military jiu-jitsu and inspired leadership, as well as an intelligent combination of guerilla and in-force strategy.
From what I've seen in the Times and WAPO, the Russians are launching some very heavy artillery but it's well outside of Kyiv.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/01/world/ukraine-russia-war
But you're undoubtedly right about how naked the Russians are in leaving their positions so open-but is it incompetence or a ruse to draw Ukrainians out to capture or kill them? The Trojan Horse theory works as well here.
I hope it's just massive incompetence but I wouldn't put it past the commanders to do the sneaky stuff. They went to war school, too, and took tactics for wartime as a college course.
Besides, they claim they're not even using 1/3rd of their weapons, and I'm wondering if that's true or not. The best soldiers never use the best of it first, that's a stupid mistake. Always leave something in reserve.
But you're doing a hell of a job teaching all of us what you learned at West Point.
Incompetence. Military incompetence.
(1) Basic military planning and strategy is incompetent, no bulldozers, no air cover, etc. etc.
(2) Preparation of Russian soldiers is incompetent.
Mainstream media have published many accounts of young Russian soldiers saying they were never told they were going into combat (“reconnaissance missions”), and never told they were being sent into the Ukraine, which is like Mexico invading California, or the U.S. invading Canada. Morale must be lower than low. Many soldiers have surrendered as soon as they discovered they were going into combat, in a sister country no less.
Russian Air Force MIA
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/
What are you hearing or seeing about Russian troops surrendering? Or damaging their own gas tanks? Thanks in advance
Thank you, Lucien, for explaining this so well.
Thank you for your information. It’s very helpful to a non-military person to have actual expert analysis of troop and equipment movements, presence or lack thereof and likely next moves. Reassuring or not, it’s good to know.
Don’t see many troops either (admittedly a tough thing to see, except larger gatherings). The Russians haven’t moved much earth moving equipment at any time. Curious and curiouser!