While the Biden administration hasn’t been able to turn the tide for Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression, it has had better luck further south in the Middle East.
Brilliant post today, Lucian. I get better, more trustworthy news from you than from any of the mainstream newspapers. and of course, nothing revelatory or cutting edge comes from broadcast news. Deep thanks for your reporting.
Netanyahu and Trump running things in the Middle East while they both try to stave off prison for their convictions. Why doesn't this fill me with optimism? A Trump casino and resort coming to the West Bank next? There has to be ample opportunity for grifting in the coming rebuild.
As I was reading this news tonight I kept wondering whether or not the war in Ukraine would have been well over by now if we had been half as generous with that government as Biden was and probably still is being with Israel. I’ll never be convinced that Bibi couldn’t have done as well with less than what we supplied him with. I am glad that Iran’s military, missile and weapons capabilities have been sufficiently damaged so that they can’t be supplying Russia with much help for a while and that’s a good thing. It would be nice if Ukraine could take advantage of this rebalancing of Middle East power before trmp arrives on the scene.
I really appreciate your insights here, Lucian, putting details together to illuminate a bigger picture. I suppose whatever Trump does will be to gain power and profit personally. Anything else will be incidental.
Thank you for bringing much needed clarity! Personally, I believe DJT is his own worst enemy. That he will continue to puff up until he finally blows himself up.
I have no sense of the timing. Wish I did! I've begun dividing my attention.. while keeping an eye on DJT. And, I've begun to focus on possibilities for life affirming change. Change being the one constant in life. We don't have to know how that change will happen. Only to stop 'reacting' to fear based messaging.
Thank you for the clarity with which you explain the current state of the Middle East. When the term Balance of Power is used however, I am perplexed. Has anyone ever referred to either Trump or Netanyahu as “balanced.” Please let us know if and when we can breathe.
Netanyahu has many negative qualities and I have been wishing for Israeli regime change for years. BUT Bibi actually cares about his country and is doing what he thinks will help it survive -- unlike Trump who cares only for himself and could give a damn about the U.S.
Best estimates of the dead in Palestine and Israel are nearly 50,000 not counting Syria and Lebanon. 70% of the dead are Palestinian women and children.
Saric, Ivana (8 November 2024). "Nearly 70% of verified deaths in Gaza are women and children, UN report finds". Axios.”
Criminals are in the driver’s seat. Chump is an inept play toy for adversarial autocrats and billionaires around the world.
The Henry Jackson Society did a detailed analysis of the Gaza death statistics claimed by Hamas. They are not accurate or honest. Men are labeled as women, adults are labeled as children, combatants are not separated out, and the methodology is severely flawed. Here is the report if you're interested. https://www.wiesenthal.com/assets/pdf/hjs-questionable-counting-hamas-report.pdf
This is not to deny the suffering of Gazan civilians. It is to deny, however, the veracity of the numbers put out by Hamas and their use by the world to condemn Israel.
This is not to deny the suffering of Gazan civilians. It is to deny, however, the veracity of the numbers put out by Hamas and their use by the world to condemn Israel.
Actually it is just that.
Even if the numbers are wrong, there is proof that Israel is committing genocide. Purposefully shooting children in the head, attacking humanitarian aid vehicles, targeting journalists, destroying cuvilian infrastructure (mosques, schools, hospitals), cutting off food & water to civilians, bombing indiscriminately…
There is no "proof" that Israel is committing "genocide." It is engaged in a war. A war that it did not start. I cannot begin to rebut all of the above points but will address one: Israel's attacks on civilian infrastructure. That is where Hamas operates and builds the underground tunnels in which its officials, soldiers, weapons, and war apparatus are located. It is heartbreaking to see the destruction of civilian neighborhoods. But we need to put the blame on Hamas for using its people as human shields, not on Israel.
Stop spouting Israeli lies & propaganda. Even Amnesty International calls it genocide. Israel will never be happy until it has killed or removed all the Palestinians, Lebanese, & Syrians from the Middle East. It’s a pure land grab.
The report also points out that Hamas does not subtract natural deaths from their totals, e.g., cancer deaths. In prior years, non-war-related deaths numbered about 5,000.
"Hamas does not subtract natural deaths from their totals, e.g., cancer deaths"
What a desperate argument. It keeps getting wilder—women who are men, children who are adults … who says so? The IDF? I can find no reason anymore to privilege Israel's talking points over Hamas's. To Israel, every day will be 7 October till it erases the possibility of a next Palestinian generation.
Why would anyone give any credibility to the propaganda from an internationally designated terrorist organization like Hamas, about their battlefield casualties? Of course they engage in chicanery with the death toll - it makes total sense, from their point of view. No one is positioned to fact check any given instance of listing a dead Hamas fighter as a teenage girl - it fits the Hamas agenda perfectly!
Ask yourself: how is it that out of the some 40, 000 deaths in Gaza, excepting the terrorist leaders they describe as "martyrs," Hamas list NONE of them as their own troops and military staff? The IDF is on the ground and claims some 17,000 of the dead are Hamas - who embed themselves amongst the civilians, in hospitals, in humanitarian aid convoys, riding in ambulances, etc.
That is, in itself, a knockdown refutation of the entire "Israel is committing genocide" argument - obviously since the deaths are less than 2% of Gaza's population, and over 45% of the total are Hamas terrorists, it's not "genocide."
Winning a war is not "genocide." You need to show a determined plan by Israel to kill any and all Gazans, and that's nonsense.
If you want to fool yourself and dicker over exact numbers. Go for it!
The reality is that tens of thousands of women and children were killed by IDF completely out of proportion to the horrific deaths of Israelis on Oct 7, 2023.
The proportion is relevant - the Hamas terrorists use civilians as human shields (a war crime) shooting missiles and mortars at civilians (another war crime) making the civilian areas legitimate military targets.
Take it up with Hamas, they're the ones still holding hostages (another war crime) who refuse to surrender and end their aggressive war of genocide.
1200 Israeli civilians killed in one day on October 7, 2023 - the equivalent American death toll would be around 40, 000 civilians killed in ONE DAY.
If we had a terrorist army on our borders who did that, would the US be warning the civilians to flee, as the IDF does? Would we be sending through any food and humanitarian aid? Would the proportion of dead terrorists to dead human shields be as high as around 45%, as the IDF has managed to do? Maybe.
Hamas counts on duping people who are uninterested in close scrutiny of the facts.
Maybe Israel should recognize Palestine as a state so this will stop. If you think Netanyahu is bombarding women and children with bombs and WITHHOLDING humanitarian aid for any other reason than staying out of jail in Israel and being tried in the ICC as a war criminal, I’ve got some land in FL to sell ya.
Have any of you who hate Israel so passionately read the report I listed? It gets deeply into the Hamas death records and is not IDF propaganda. I'd suggest you read it before saying the arguments are wild or "privilege" Israel. Here it is again. https://www.wiesenthal.com/assets/pdf/hjs-questionable-counting-hamas-report.pdf
“Donald Trump, for better or worse, will be in the driver’s seat.” And this is the way the world ends, not with a bang, but a whimper. Correction, make that several bangs.
That sentence got me too, Margo, it conjured up horrors best left unsaid. In addition to Tim Snyder, Rachel had on the head of the ACLU who talked about the prep they have been doing for at least a year, anticipating that the insipid orange turd might be re-elected, it was encouraging. The court system works slowly by design and they have has the maggot action manual, Project 2025 since it was first published. There will be lots of battles, some we will win and some we will loose, like in any war. The SC will no doubt try to tip the scales whenever they can, but some of the cases might outlive the administration, so there is hope.🙏
The news in mainstream media while informative doesn't really cover anywhere near the the kind of detail included here. I had no idea of the extent of damage inflicted on Iran by the Israelis or specifics on the use of various aircraft. And that is just one of several examples. I certainly didn't hear anything about the recent Israeli strikes on Syria installations. Watching the news on TV is like only reading the headlines in the newspaper, never the actual story.
And, does Biden get any of the credit? I am hoping that a seriously weakened Russia has to step back from Ukraine, the Middle East and African countries.
The US is not the only nation supporting Uk. NATO, the EU, and other partners, totaling around 50 nations, provide military and non-military aid and support.
Uk rejected the US and NATO's intel which gave Uk a 2week heads-up to the full-scale Ru invasion. Israel ignored its intel regarding Hamas's intent on attacking. Both nations paid a high price for their ignorance; as usual, it fell primarily on the civ population.
Zelensky and Bibi have escaped accountability for failing to heed actionable intel, both in-country and internationally. The media elevated the former to the dizzying heights of Mt. Olympus, the latter into a villain. Both labels persist to this day.
Zelensky has fought Ru with one hand holding out a hat while spitting at those he wants mil and non-mil aid. The other hand he tied behind his own back by not conscripting 18- to 25-year-olds into mil service. Weapons w/o hoomans are usless. Weapons striking behind enemy lines while failing to attempt to dislodge the enemy on your nation's dirt is willful ignorance. Uk had more than enough weaponry to mount many counter-offensives. What it lacked was the fighters to carry it out and/or the political will to do so.
That's not the case in Israel. Au contraire. The IDF began by fighting what was directly in front of them. Then kept pushing deeper and deeper into Gaza, Lebanon, and now Sy. It did so on the backs of its regular mil and by calling up reserves. Israel has mandatory conscription beginning at age 18. It applies to Jews, Druze, and a tiny sect of Muslims. In addition, other Muslims and Christians who are Arabs volunteer in high numbers. Only Jewish females (pretty certain) can serve and are subject to conscription.
Uk has received mil and non-mil aid and support from the US-NATO-Eu and partner nations that when added up equal 50 or so countries, Zelensky wants what he wants, not what he needs. He needs to drive Ru fighters off his dirt somewhere along a 950km front. Something he promised the nations supporting him and his citizenry. He never tried. Time has run out. The weapons haven't. The ammo/ord hasn't.
US and NATO have succeeded in degrading Ru mil as well as exposing its overrated conventional capabilities and capacity. and most of all exposed Putin as anything but a geo-political genius. They did so w/o firing a single round in Uk. Zelensy exposed self as all talk with the biggest hat in the world.
Bibi leveraged US support for his nation, people, and for self. In doing so Hamas, Hezbollah, Sy's Assad, and Iran are severely weakened which benefits Israel, Bibi, the US, Europe (which harbors millions of Sy refugees) and Tr (Erdogan supports HTS and has further diluted Kurd strength in Sy and Tr houses 100s of 100s if not more Sy refugees that can return to Sy)
While it's true Trump is being handed a strong position in the so-called Middle East, Zelensky's abject failure in Uk to push out any Ru mil hands Trump an even stronger and better hand w/Zelensky. Zelensky folded before w/Trump (at the UN presser) He will again. Zelensky will deal some land for a temporary peace so he too can claim a win.
Trump et al and Bibi still face the hostage issue. No matter how the hostage issue plays out both men can spin it as a win because war ain't about hostages under any name, it's about dirt and who controls and/or who doesn't.
This is an ... "interesting" ... period of transition. A few things I ponder:
-- Is Iran really defenseless against further air assault by Israel (or the US)? It's difficult to believe any aerial offensive can be as effective as these last Israeli strikes are now being said to be (as if the Pentagon is ever wholly truthful or accurate). I know the fly boys love to boast of their war-winning capabilities; they always have been, since the 1920s, but when has this ever proven to be the case? And in any event --
-- have recent events given Iran's leadership any better cause to change their previous restrained policies and now go all out to develop and deploy a nuclear weapon? As a deterrent against further attacks by Israel or the US? I don't see why they wouldn't at this point, given all the bellicosity and bad-faith diplomacy from their antagonists. Have we outsmarted ourselves?
-- Are the Israelis (Netanyahu) completely out of control now with delusions of invulnerability and freedom to do whatever they want? How far will Israel push their dream of a Greater Israel into Syria, the West bank, Gaza? How will the Muslim world react to this? What happens to the Palestinians who continue to be shoved under the carpet by all outside powers? And will Syria fall apart into mutually antagonistic factions and fiefdoms or will a new Damascus leadership permit itself to be used as a punching bag by the Israeli military?
-- The joker in the deck continues to be the Drumpf and his irrational, kneejerk reactions to whatever his soured and hate-filled mind conjures up. At the end of January, who is plying his ear with "advice" and what are Drumpf's few remaining brain cells telling him?
What will Trump do in the Middle East? Well, after he has Bibi prepare Gaza for Jared's luxury condo development, it may revolve around what his Saudi bankrollers need done, and that does not bode well for Iran. And an obvious US attack on Iran, even if via Israeli proxies, does not bode well for us long term.
Gee, thanks, Lucian. So much for me reading a little Substack to get back to sleep! Seriously, you do a great job of explaining the basics. We are in the scariest times I can think of since maybe October 1962.
Until reading this column I have been wondering the extend of damage Israel has done to Iran and its capacity to project and protect its power. Thanks for the clarification. It would appear Iran has been defanged for the immediate future to a large extent and its capacity to conduct an open ended reign of terror in the region through surrogates severely degraded if not eliminated.
We can expect Trump to begin taking his victory laps oh, say, on January 20. My bet it it will conisst of a lot of machismo and braddagocio that we are the strongest military and he is going to make us even more strong against both old and new enemies. Verbal threatening is what dictators love to do and make no mistake he is going to be thinking and acting as a dictator. My bet would be the first recipients will be NATO, Chinah, and Ukraine whom he will leave hanging out to dry for his weakened bud in the Kremlin to continue slaughtering.
While a weakened Iran is good news for the Middle East (and the world in general) anything which feeds this man's ego and lust for more power is not a good thing for the folks here back home. He will be emboldened to push a lot of his bat crap crazy ideas. Like using the military to round up and deport immigrants who will be put in mass deportation camps. Or, make unilateral
dedisions without Congress's engagement and approval on spending and tax policies.
But, here is IMHO what will eventually save us from a lot of the worst he has in mind. Sheer incompetence of our soon to be CinC and most, if not all, of those he has chosen to be his hit men and women. Sure, the current day GOP leadership has caved but if one examines the actual capacity of most of those who have been appointed they are extremely light on comptence (see Pete Hegseth) and administrative experience (pick any of a dozen appointments starting with Pam Bondi and ending with K$S Patel) whose back stories consist of cloyint political toadies and not much else.
Trump failed in his first term, most noticeably with everythihg concerning Covid except Operation Warp Speed because he failed to listen to those who knew how our government works , its strenths and weaknesses and how no matter what you wish for the size, complexity and diversity of this nation works against any warp speed MO. He will fail again only this time the executioners of the plan will in all likelihool shoot themselves in the feet with the selector on full auto.
The saving grace for us with Trump is once something gets a lot more difficult to do after his grandiose speeches he gets very bored very quickly. He does not like to dwell on failure or try to explain why what he said does not magiclally appear to be put into play. He is, yes, a very simple man in a complex world. As he did first time around he will put on his show, huff and puff and in the end be found wanting. Won't be easy for some of us who saw it coming to feel sorry for the 51% of voters who both too often think and act as simpletons or who have ulterior motives for putting the likes of Trump in power (see Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and the majority of hedge fund managers) who will pay a heavy price for their choice, but, we and the nation will survive wounded but not defeated. Then we can hand the reins back to sanity and begin to dig out of the excrement storm he and his crew have created.
Brilliant post today, Lucian. I get better, more trustworthy news from you than from any of the mainstream newspapers. and of course, nothing revelatory or cutting edge comes from broadcast news. Deep thanks for your reporting.
Yes! Agreed
DITTO!
Netanyahu and Trump running things in the Middle East while they both try to stave off prison for their convictions. Why doesn't this fill me with optimism? A Trump casino and resort coming to the West Bank next? There has to be ample opportunity for grifting in the coming rebuild.
Yes so both can evade accountability. They don't care about the rivers of blood
As I was reading this news tonight I kept wondering whether or not the war in Ukraine would have been well over by now if we had been half as generous with that government as Biden was and probably still is being with Israel. I’ll never be convinced that Bibi couldn’t have done as well with less than what we supplied him with. I am glad that Iran’s military, missile and weapons capabilities have been sufficiently damaged so that they can’t be supplying Russia with much help for a while and that’s a good thing. It would be nice if Ukraine could take advantage of this rebalancing of Middle East power before trmp arrives on the scene.
Agree with you, SPW, especially about Ukraine. I'm hoping they at least get "trickle down" benefit from the Middle East events.
Welcome to GriftWorld by KlownKar International.
I really appreciate your insights here, Lucian, putting details together to illuminate a bigger picture. I suppose whatever Trump does will be to gain power and profit personally. Anything else will be incidental.
Thank you for bringing much needed clarity! Personally, I believe DJT is his own worst enemy. That he will continue to puff up until he finally blows himself up.
How I wish that would happen soon....then I remember who would be sitting at the Resolute Desk and I go "never mind."
I have no sense of the timing. Wish I did! I've begun dividing my attention.. while keeping an eye on DJT. And, I've begun to focus on possibilities for life affirming change. Change being the one constant in life. We don't have to know how that change will happen. Only to stop 'reacting' to fear based messaging.
But Ukraine has helped prevent WW III, according to Dr. Snyder. https://snyder.substack.com/p/gratitude-to-ukraine-2024
If Putin desired a confrontation w/the west, then he woulda' sought it elsewhere. He didn't. And for good Reason.
Thank you for the clarity with which you explain the current state of the Middle East. When the term Balance of Power is used however, I am perplexed. Has anyone ever referred to either Trump or Netanyahu as “balanced.” Please let us know if and when we can breathe.
Netanyahu has many negative qualities and I have been wishing for Israeli regime change for years. BUT Bibi actually cares about his country and is doing what he thinks will help it survive -- unlike Trump who cares only for himself and could give a damn about the U.S.
Hooray. 😩
At what cost?
Best estimates of the dead in Palestine and Israel are nearly 50,000 not counting Syria and Lebanon. 70% of the dead are Palestinian women and children.
Saric, Ivana (8 November 2024). "Nearly 70% of verified deaths in Gaza are women and children, UN report finds". Axios.”
Criminals are in the driver’s seat. Chump is an inept play toy for adversarial autocrats and billionaires around the world.
The Henry Jackson Society did a detailed analysis of the Gaza death statistics claimed by Hamas. They are not accurate or honest. Men are labeled as women, adults are labeled as children, combatants are not separated out, and the methodology is severely flawed. Here is the report if you're interested. https://www.wiesenthal.com/assets/pdf/hjs-questionable-counting-hamas-report.pdf
This is not to deny the suffering of Gazan civilians. It is to deny, however, the veracity of the numbers put out by Hamas and their use by the world to condemn Israel.
This is not to deny the suffering of Gazan civilians. It is to deny, however, the veracity of the numbers put out by Hamas and their use by the world to condemn Israel.
Actually it is just that.
Even if the numbers are wrong, there is proof that Israel is committing genocide. Purposefully shooting children in the head, attacking humanitarian aid vehicles, targeting journalists, destroying cuvilian infrastructure (mosques, schools, hospitals), cutting off food & water to civilians, bombing indiscriminately…
I am disgusted that the US supports this.
There is no "proof" that Israel is committing "genocide." It is engaged in a war. A war that it did not start. I cannot begin to rebut all of the above points but will address one: Israel's attacks on civilian infrastructure. That is where Hamas operates and builds the underground tunnels in which its officials, soldiers, weapons, and war apparatus are located. It is heartbreaking to see the destruction of civilian neighborhoods. But we need to put the blame on Hamas for using its people as human shields, not on Israel.
Stop spouting Israeli lies & propaganda. Even Amnesty International calls it genocide. Israel will never be happy until it has killed or removed all the Palestinians, Lebanese, & Syrians from the Middle East. It’s a pure land grab.
https://www.joewrote.com/p/self-defense-is-a-common-excuse-for?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
The report also points out that Hamas does not subtract natural deaths from their totals, e.g., cancer deaths. In prior years, non-war-related deaths numbered about 5,000.
"Hamas does not subtract natural deaths from their totals, e.g., cancer deaths"
What a desperate argument. It keeps getting wilder—women who are men, children who are adults … who says so? The IDF? I can find no reason anymore to privilege Israel's talking points over Hamas's. To Israel, every day will be 7 October till it erases the possibility of a next Palestinian generation.
Why would anyone give any credibility to the propaganda from an internationally designated terrorist organization like Hamas, about their battlefield casualties? Of course they engage in chicanery with the death toll - it makes total sense, from their point of view. No one is positioned to fact check any given instance of listing a dead Hamas fighter as a teenage girl - it fits the Hamas agenda perfectly!
Ask yourself: how is it that out of the some 40, 000 deaths in Gaza, excepting the terrorist leaders they describe as "martyrs," Hamas list NONE of them as their own troops and military staff? The IDF is on the ground and claims some 17,000 of the dead are Hamas - who embed themselves amongst the civilians, in hospitals, in humanitarian aid convoys, riding in ambulances, etc.
That is, in itself, a knockdown refutation of the entire "Israel is committing genocide" argument - obviously since the deaths are less than 2% of Gaza's population, and over 45% of the total are Hamas terrorists, it's not "genocide."
Winning a war is not "genocide." You need to show a determined plan by Israel to kill any and all Gazans, and that's nonsense.
If you want to fool yourself and dicker over exact numbers. Go for it!
The reality is that tens of thousands of women and children were killed by IDF completely out of proportion to the horrific deaths of Israelis on Oct 7, 2023.
The proportion is relevant - the Hamas terrorists use civilians as human shields (a war crime) shooting missiles and mortars at civilians (another war crime) making the civilian areas legitimate military targets.
Take it up with Hamas, they're the ones still holding hostages (another war crime) who refuse to surrender and end their aggressive war of genocide.
1200 Israeli civilians killed in one day on October 7, 2023 - the equivalent American death toll would be around 40, 000 civilians killed in ONE DAY.
If we had a terrorist army on our borders who did that, would the US be warning the civilians to flee, as the IDF does? Would we be sending through any food and humanitarian aid? Would the proportion of dead terrorists to dead human shields be as high as around 45%, as the IDF has managed to do? Maybe.
Hamas counts on duping people who are uninterested in close scrutiny of the facts.
Maybe Israel should recognize Palestine as a state so this will stop. If you think Netanyahu is bombarding women and children with bombs and WITHHOLDING humanitarian aid for any other reason than staying out of jail in Israel and being tried in the ICC as a war criminal, I’ve got some land in FL to sell ya.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/10/28/opinion-dont-lecture-israel-about-proportionality-shoshana-bryen/
Yeah, like I’m going to be persuaded by a disreputable, right-wing rag like the Daily Caller! 😂
Have any of you who hate Israel so passionately read the report I listed? It gets deeply into the Hamas death records and is not IDF propaganda. I'd suggest you read it before saying the arguments are wild or "privilege" Israel. Here it is again. https://www.wiesenthal.com/assets/pdf/hjs-questionable-counting-hamas-report.pdf
Earlier in the war, a statistics professor debunked Hamas' figures on their face. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers
These are credible sources. Hamas most assuredly is not.
Don’t even try it. Criticism against Netanyahu is NOT anti-Semitic.
“Donald Trump, for better or worse, will be in the driver’s seat.” And this is the way the world ends, not with a bang, but a whimper. Correction, make that several bangs.
That sentence got me too, Margo, it conjured up horrors best left unsaid. In addition to Tim Snyder, Rachel had on the head of the ACLU who talked about the prep they have been doing for at least a year, anticipating that the insipid orange turd might be re-elected, it was encouraging. The court system works slowly by design and they have has the maggot action manual, Project 2025 since it was first published. There will be lots of battles, some we will win and some we will loose, like in any war. The SC will no doubt try to tip the scales whenever they can, but some of the cases might outlive the administration, so there is hope.🙏
Sounds like Bibi has the best grip at the moment.
So much for the climate crisis. By the time the AMOC collapses, the world will be basically toast.
The news in mainstream media while informative doesn't really cover anywhere near the the kind of detail included here. I had no idea of the extent of damage inflicted on Iran by the Israelis or specifics on the use of various aircraft. And that is just one of several examples. I certainly didn't hear anything about the recent Israeli strikes on Syria installations. Watching the news on TV is like only reading the headlines in the newspaper, never the actual story.
That's what happens when you transfer news coverage to the entertainment division.
Good point!
👍👍
And, does Biden get any of the credit? I am hoping that a seriously weakened Russia has to step back from Ukraine, the Middle East and African countries.
Biden would have had “better luck” in Ukraine if he provided Ukraine with the same amount of support that he gave to Israel.
The US is not the only nation supporting Uk. NATO, the EU, and other partners, totaling around 50 nations, provide military and non-military aid and support.
Uk rejected the US and NATO's intel which gave Uk a 2week heads-up to the full-scale Ru invasion. Israel ignored its intel regarding Hamas's intent on attacking. Both nations paid a high price for their ignorance; as usual, it fell primarily on the civ population.
Zelensky and Bibi have escaped accountability for failing to heed actionable intel, both in-country and internationally. The media elevated the former to the dizzying heights of Mt. Olympus, the latter into a villain. Both labels persist to this day.
Zelensky has fought Ru with one hand holding out a hat while spitting at those he wants mil and non-mil aid. The other hand he tied behind his own back by not conscripting 18- to 25-year-olds into mil service. Weapons w/o hoomans are usless. Weapons striking behind enemy lines while failing to attempt to dislodge the enemy on your nation's dirt is willful ignorance. Uk had more than enough weaponry to mount many counter-offensives. What it lacked was the fighters to carry it out and/or the political will to do so.
That's not the case in Israel. Au contraire. The IDF began by fighting what was directly in front of them. Then kept pushing deeper and deeper into Gaza, Lebanon, and now Sy. It did so on the backs of its regular mil and by calling up reserves. Israel has mandatory conscription beginning at age 18. It applies to Jews, Druze, and a tiny sect of Muslims. In addition, other Muslims and Christians who are Arabs volunteer in high numbers. Only Jewish females (pretty certain) can serve and are subject to conscription.
Uk has received mil and non-mil aid and support from the US-NATO-Eu and partner nations that when added up equal 50 or so countries, Zelensky wants what he wants, not what he needs. He needs to drive Ru fighters off his dirt somewhere along a 950km front. Something he promised the nations supporting him and his citizenry. He never tried. Time has run out. The weapons haven't. The ammo/ord hasn't.
US and NATO have succeeded in degrading Ru mil as well as exposing its overrated conventional capabilities and capacity. and most of all exposed Putin as anything but a geo-political genius. They did so w/o firing a single round in Uk. Zelensy exposed self as all talk with the biggest hat in the world.
Bibi leveraged US support for his nation, people, and for self. In doing so Hamas, Hezbollah, Sy's Assad, and Iran are severely weakened which benefits Israel, Bibi, the US, Europe (which harbors millions of Sy refugees) and Tr (Erdogan supports HTS and has further diluted Kurd strength in Sy and Tr houses 100s of 100s if not more Sy refugees that can return to Sy)
While it's true Trump is being handed a strong position in the so-called Middle East, Zelensky's abject failure in Uk to push out any Ru mil hands Trump an even stronger and better hand w/Zelensky. Zelensky folded before w/Trump (at the UN presser) He will again. Zelensky will deal some land for a temporary peace so he too can claim a win.
Trump et al and Bibi still face the hostage issue. No matter how the hostage issue plays out both men can spin it as a win because war ain't about hostages under any name, it's about dirt and who controls and/or who doesn't.
This is an ... "interesting" ... period of transition. A few things I ponder:
-- Is Iran really defenseless against further air assault by Israel (or the US)? It's difficult to believe any aerial offensive can be as effective as these last Israeli strikes are now being said to be (as if the Pentagon is ever wholly truthful or accurate). I know the fly boys love to boast of their war-winning capabilities; they always have been, since the 1920s, but when has this ever proven to be the case? And in any event --
-- have recent events given Iran's leadership any better cause to change their previous restrained policies and now go all out to develop and deploy a nuclear weapon? As a deterrent against further attacks by Israel or the US? I don't see why they wouldn't at this point, given all the bellicosity and bad-faith diplomacy from their antagonists. Have we outsmarted ourselves?
-- Are the Israelis (Netanyahu) completely out of control now with delusions of invulnerability and freedom to do whatever they want? How far will Israel push their dream of a Greater Israel into Syria, the West bank, Gaza? How will the Muslim world react to this? What happens to the Palestinians who continue to be shoved under the carpet by all outside powers? And will Syria fall apart into mutually antagonistic factions and fiefdoms or will a new Damascus leadership permit itself to be used as a punching bag by the Israeli military?
-- The joker in the deck continues to be the Drumpf and his irrational, kneejerk reactions to whatever his soured and hate-filled mind conjures up. At the end of January, who is plying his ear with "advice" and what are Drumpf's few remaining brain cells telling him?
He will do what he always has with what he inherits...he blows it, loses it or destroys it.
What will Trump do in the Middle East? Well, after he has Bibi prepare Gaza for Jared's luxury condo development, it may revolve around what his Saudi bankrollers need done, and that does not bode well for Iran. And an obvious US attack on Iran, even if via Israeli proxies, does not bode well for us long term.
Gee, thanks, Lucian. So much for me reading a little Substack to get back to sleep! Seriously, you do a great job of explaining the basics. We are in the scariest times I can think of since maybe October 1962.
Until reading this column I have been wondering the extend of damage Israel has done to Iran and its capacity to project and protect its power. Thanks for the clarification. It would appear Iran has been defanged for the immediate future to a large extent and its capacity to conduct an open ended reign of terror in the region through surrogates severely degraded if not eliminated.
We can expect Trump to begin taking his victory laps oh, say, on January 20. My bet it it will conisst of a lot of machismo and braddagocio that we are the strongest military and he is going to make us even more strong against both old and new enemies. Verbal threatening is what dictators love to do and make no mistake he is going to be thinking and acting as a dictator. My bet would be the first recipients will be NATO, Chinah, and Ukraine whom he will leave hanging out to dry for his weakened bud in the Kremlin to continue slaughtering.
While a weakened Iran is good news for the Middle East (and the world in general) anything which feeds this man's ego and lust for more power is not a good thing for the folks here back home. He will be emboldened to push a lot of his bat crap crazy ideas. Like using the military to round up and deport immigrants who will be put in mass deportation camps. Or, make unilateral
dedisions without Congress's engagement and approval on spending and tax policies.
But, here is IMHO what will eventually save us from a lot of the worst he has in mind. Sheer incompetence of our soon to be CinC and most, if not all, of those he has chosen to be his hit men and women. Sure, the current day GOP leadership has caved but if one examines the actual capacity of most of those who have been appointed they are extremely light on comptence (see Pete Hegseth) and administrative experience (pick any of a dozen appointments starting with Pam Bondi and ending with K$S Patel) whose back stories consist of cloyint political toadies and not much else.
Trump failed in his first term, most noticeably with everythihg concerning Covid except Operation Warp Speed because he failed to listen to those who knew how our government works , its strenths and weaknesses and how no matter what you wish for the size, complexity and diversity of this nation works against any warp speed MO. He will fail again only this time the executioners of the plan will in all likelihool shoot themselves in the feet with the selector on full auto.
The saving grace for us with Trump is once something gets a lot more difficult to do after his grandiose speeches he gets very bored very quickly. He does not like to dwell on failure or try to explain why what he said does not magiclally appear to be put into play. He is, yes, a very simple man in a complex world. As he did first time around he will put on his show, huff and puff and in the end be found wanting. Won't be easy for some of us who saw it coming to feel sorry for the 51% of voters who both too often think and act as simpletons or who have ulterior motives for putting the likes of Trump in power (see Jamie Dimon, Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos and the majority of hedge fund managers) who will pay a heavy price for their choice, but, we and the nation will survive wounded but not defeated. Then we can hand the reins back to sanity and begin to dig out of the excrement storm he and his crew have created.