Just when you thought that things had gotten as weird in Russia as they could be, this happens: Yevgeny Prigozhin, who instigated what amounted to a Russian-style Jan.
It’s hard to read the situation in Russia now but it’s fairly apparent that Putin screwed the pooch with his invasion of Ukraine and it’s been downhill ever since last March when pictures of the stalled columns of tanks, trucks, and APCs were circulated. The problem with corrupt oligarchies is that that everyone is corrupted, and there are no competent leaders to right the ship of state. All that’s left is a bunch of court jesters vying for the crown, such as it is.
Agree. Far too many are not factoring in what Russia is and is not. As you rightly point out this is happening in an environment, a full-blown corrupt oligarchy, unfamiliar to most and failing to grasp Russian culture.
For the most part it is those who dubbed Putin a geopolitical genius and claimed the Ru mil was only second to the US who have offered the worst takes in the Prigozhin matter. On the other side of the coin of demonstrating a total lack of understanding of Putin, Ru, Ru history and culture is the statement by another man elevated to geopolitical genius status, the late Sen. John McCain. His oversimplification that Ru is a gas station masquerading as a country is merely a pithy sound bite all the while reinforcing his lazy thinking.
So, your "The problem with corrupt oligarchies is that that everyone is corrupted, and there are no competent leaders to right the ship of state. All that’s left is a bunch of court jesters vying for the crown, such as it is." is wisdom and should be the starting point and guide for all.
Thank you, Lucian, for sprinkling my dinner porridge with a handful of umami. Forget theology, the real reason for the standard vision of Heaven is that it means screenwriter Alan Owen is in there, shouting down to 91-year-old director Richard Lester to create a video of Prigozhin going into and out of the FSB office in St. Petersburg, a video matching frame for frame London coppers chasing Ringo and The Beatles out of and into and out of the police station in Lester and Owen's "A Hard Day's Night." Also, that 10.5% raise in salary for Putin's food taster? Another truly delicious factoid.
There’s also the possibility that the so-called mutiny was really a ruse to get Prigozhin and his troops to Belarus whose border with western Ukraine makes it an ideal launching pad for an invasion of that part of Ukraine, which so far has escaped serious damage from the war.
-Any objective viewing of the Wagner Group's vid of shelling by the Ru mil appears to have been staged. Doesn't mean it didn't happen only that the vid is a head scratcher.
-Putin (much like Trump) admires criminal machismo. Prigozhin has an abundance of it and on my mind w/o a doubt was/is his go to guy.
-Didn't agree with those who said Prigozhin turned on Putin. The English translations of Prigozhin's rants named names. Only in the west would others read in a name that doesn't appear. What does appear and is plain was Prigozhin's anger as was Putin's in one address.
-Same folk insisting this or that since Prigozhin exited Uk haven't got one thing right nor have stuck to one thing. Most forgot Prigozhin went to Roston-on-Don because Shoigu and/or Gerasimov were supposed to be there. Those are the two Progozhin named as being responsible for the war and how it was prosecuted.
-It was only after Prigozhin discovered niithah were there did he head north. So, it is as likely Putin was aok with Prigozhin nudging out (a polite way of saying something else) as he was against it. Again, it was Shoigu and Gerasimov who championed ending private militias. Their way of neutering a rival.
-Doesn't matter if Putin approved or not. Prolly did but not to neuter Prigozhin, instead to watch you would emerge successful and who would not. It is not farfetched for anyone who has witnessed such power plays instigated by the person in charge. It has as much credibility as all the other what ifs floating around.
-Doesn't mean Putin won't change his mind and turn on Prigozhin. That too is a prerogative of MEN with absolute power. And is consistent with Putin's love's me, love's me not, back and forth on the matter.
-Finally, chuckle at the game of is Putin stronger or weaker now? Is the wrong question. The right question is does Putin see self as stronger or weaker. MEN like him always in all ways see self as getting stronger and most of those around him getting weaker.
Once again. Lucian, you’ve summarized the many tails of a confusing situation into an understandable narrative, even if many of those tails are tales yet to be told. Your insights are so good, and I think many of us readers yearn for more of them. For example, where did Prigozhin get 10B rubles to begin with? And how did they manage to fit it all into a vehicle he was riding around in. And why? What exactly are the terms of his ‘exile’? He’s obviously free to move around as he wishes. Was this whole ‘coup’ thing just a charade? Again I ask, who benefitted? Putin suddenly seems to be very aware of his mortality, and indifferent to his appearance of weakness. In the past Putin has bided his time before killing, or attempting to, his dissenters. Is he just waiting for the right moment to take out Prigozhin out of fear of the consequences his murder might set loose? Can’t wait for the next installment.
Jul 6, 2023·edited Jul 6, 2023Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV
This is wild, admittedly. Here's a few things I always keep in mind when reading analyses of what's going down in Moscow behind the scenes:
Krushchev was deposed from within for "showing weakness" (aka "Cuban Missile Crisis") by a group of insiders and no one saw it coming, far as I have read.
The USSR suddenly collapsed (peaceably, let it be remembered, and it could have gone so much worse) and a year later Gorbachev was subjected to an armed coup and no one saw those events coming, either; none of those salaried wonks at the State dept. or Pentagon as far as I have read.
So maybe this indicates no one who's yakking to the press in the official US media outlets really has a clue what's likely to happen next in Russia?
All these high-paid analysts and commentators and secret psy-ops agents -- maybe they're all bluffing? Or guessing? Or have an agenda?
Caveat emptor.
(This is NOT including Our Host here, who I know is reporting based on what he knows or can deduce. And who we all know has a history of frank journalism. Lest I be misunderstood.)
"o maybe this indicates no one who's yakking to the press in the official US media outlets really has a clue what's likely to happen next in Russia?
All these high-paid analysts and commentators and secret psy-ops agents -- maybe they're all bluffing? Or guessing? Or have an agenda?"
A stew of guessing, wishful thinking, and will say anything on the teevee or in the papers even when it contradicts previous statements, ignores/omits that which is known, and most of all requires the suspension of disbelief.
In Vietnam, on my Army Advisory Team, I used to get so disgusted with CYA, wishy-washy, confusing Intelligence reports that I sent Saigon one of my own which was a parody of theirs. It included such lines as "the enemy may or may not attempt massive attacks throughout the Province", and "the enemy may or may not take the week off."
It was not well received.
The thing you never hear in the Intel biz is "I don't have a clue about..."
Does capture not only VN, all of SEA at the time, then onward to each and every mil misadventure. All well-intentioned is the best one can say.
"The thing you never hear in the Intel biz is "I don't have a clue about..."
Perhaps one day the IC will adopt your "I don't have a clue" by reporting out only what is known (verified depending on the specific intel service) followed by all else is unknown, concluding with at this juncture we're clueless. That said, much firsthand intel was/is often dismissed due to some version of I/we don't believe it (personal bias).
Today do see an improvement due to blending all the intel disciplines which do lead to a higher probability/confidence one way or another. Still comes down to the personalities and institutional biases.
Of course, that doesn't apply to the media who has very limited resources and sources even less in a closed society like Ru. Have confidence the west has a decent feel for what actually transpired yet a lower confidence in what is likely to unfold until it does. The media, a big fat O to both. For example, today running FSB vids of a raid. Western media has no idea where Prigozhin had houses/apartments or offices. Since they can't confirm it, they shouldn't show them, never mind claim the FSB vid is authentic.
And another little tidbit around this morning was that Russia has expended half its fighting force and weaponry. And it doesn't sound like they've got replacements. This is so strange. I've lived a long time with Russia the way it always was, repressive, aggressive, cruel, murderous, thuggish and more so by the year. This is just weird.
Another unanswered question - and possibly related - is what's up with Gen. Yunus-bek Yevkurov, Deputy Minister of Defense, and formerly chief of the Russian republic of Ingushetia (2008-2019), last seen in Rostov-on-Don on June 23rd, chumming it up with Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner having just taken effective control of Southern Military District) and Vladimir Alekseyev, Deputy Chief of Staff. Yevkurov is possibly in the Lefortovo, keeping company with another of Prigozhin's co-conspirators, Gen. Sergei Surovikin. There may not be a purge, exactly, but there's definitely some tidying up.
This is great reporting and commentary. I read the article in the Post about this and was scratching my head wondering how he could do it. Obviously he is getting FSB help. Thank you.
This coup flew the coup! I am confused. Is that okay? Prigozhin used his muscle against his friend, Vlad, and Vlad cowered? So Prig, the billionaire, gets all of his money and weaponry back because Vladimir really is a woose. Do I have that right?
Crazy stuff! As you wrote days ago, this still sounds like a developing situation. Thanks for sorting out all the bits and pieces into an absorbing narrative. WTF seems to be the theme of all this Russian mayhem.
It’s hard to read the situation in Russia now but it’s fairly apparent that Putin screwed the pooch with his invasion of Ukraine and it’s been downhill ever since last March when pictures of the stalled columns of tanks, trucks, and APCs were circulated. The problem with corrupt oligarchies is that that everyone is corrupted, and there are no competent leaders to right the ship of state. All that’s left is a bunch of court jesters vying for the crown, such as it is.
That sounds a bit like the Republican Party, doesn't it?
Agree. Far too many are not factoring in what Russia is and is not. As you rightly point out this is happening in an environment, a full-blown corrupt oligarchy, unfamiliar to most and failing to grasp Russian culture.
For the most part it is those who dubbed Putin a geopolitical genius and claimed the Ru mil was only second to the US who have offered the worst takes in the Prigozhin matter. On the other side of the coin of demonstrating a total lack of understanding of Putin, Ru, Ru history and culture is the statement by another man elevated to geopolitical genius status, the late Sen. John McCain. His oversimplification that Ru is a gas station masquerading as a country is merely a pithy sound bite all the while reinforcing his lazy thinking.
So, your "The problem with corrupt oligarchies is that that everyone is corrupted, and there are no competent leaders to right the ship of state. All that’s left is a bunch of court jesters vying for the crown, such as it is." is wisdom and should be the starting point and guide for all.
I hope they don't execute Putin when done, but ship him in chains to the Hague.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2023/jul/03/centre-for-prosecuting-crimes-of-aggression-opens-in-the-hague
Now, THAT is intriguing . . . But, if Russia doesn’t want to look weak, why would they hand over Putin? Or maybe they are aiming to regain legitimacy?
A Jack Smith project!
Thank you, Lucian, for sprinkling my dinner porridge with a handful of umami. Forget theology, the real reason for the standard vision of Heaven is that it means screenwriter Alan Owen is in there, shouting down to 91-year-old director Richard Lester to create a video of Prigozhin going into and out of the FSB office in St. Petersburg, a video matching frame for frame London coppers chasing Ringo and The Beatles out of and into and out of the police station in Lester and Owen's "A Hard Day's Night." Also, that 10.5% raise in salary for Putin's food taster? Another truly delicious factoid.
Too bad WGA isn’t able to get this settled today for the sequel!
There’s also the possibility that the so-called mutiny was really a ruse to get Prigozhin and his troops to Belarus whose border with western Ukraine makes it an ideal launching pad for an invasion of that part of Ukraine, which so far has escaped serious damage from the war.
My concern as well, when Belarus exile was offered.
I thought the whole thing was a hoax from the beginning. I just didn't have any idea why. Pretty expensive hoax though, right?
Hoax/ruse:
-Any objective viewing of the Wagner Group's vid of shelling by the Ru mil appears to have been staged. Doesn't mean it didn't happen only that the vid is a head scratcher.
-Putin (much like Trump) admires criminal machismo. Prigozhin has an abundance of it and on my mind w/o a doubt was/is his go to guy.
-Didn't agree with those who said Prigozhin turned on Putin. The English translations of Prigozhin's rants named names. Only in the west would others read in a name that doesn't appear. What does appear and is plain was Prigozhin's anger as was Putin's in one address.
-Same folk insisting this or that since Prigozhin exited Uk haven't got one thing right nor have stuck to one thing. Most forgot Prigozhin went to Roston-on-Don because Shoigu and/or Gerasimov were supposed to be there. Those are the two Progozhin named as being responsible for the war and how it was prosecuted.
-It was only after Prigozhin discovered niithah were there did he head north. So, it is as likely Putin was aok with Prigozhin nudging out (a polite way of saying something else) as he was against it. Again, it was Shoigu and Gerasimov who championed ending private militias. Their way of neutering a rival.
-Doesn't matter if Putin approved or not. Prolly did but not to neuter Prigozhin, instead to watch you would emerge successful and who would not. It is not farfetched for anyone who has witnessed such power plays instigated by the person in charge. It has as much credibility as all the other what ifs floating around.
-Doesn't mean Putin won't change his mind and turn on Prigozhin. That too is a prerogative of MEN with absolute power. And is consistent with Putin's love's me, love's me not, back and forth on the matter.
-Finally, chuckle at the game of is Putin stronger or weaker now? Is the wrong question. The right question is does Putin see self as stronger or weaker. MEN like him always in all ways see self as getting stronger and most of those around him getting weaker.
This fills in a lot of blanks for me.
And today it was announced by Belarus that Prigozhin is back in Russia and that an air raid was carried out over Lviv.....
Yes
Once again. Lucian, you’ve summarized the many tails of a confusing situation into an understandable narrative, even if many of those tails are tales yet to be told. Your insights are so good, and I think many of us readers yearn for more of them. For example, where did Prigozhin get 10B rubles to begin with? And how did they manage to fit it all into a vehicle he was riding around in. And why? What exactly are the terms of his ‘exile’? He’s obviously free to move around as he wishes. Was this whole ‘coup’ thing just a charade? Again I ask, who benefitted? Putin suddenly seems to be very aware of his mortality, and indifferent to his appearance of weakness. In the past Putin has bided his time before killing, or attempting to, his dissenters. Is he just waiting for the right moment to take out Prigozhin out of fear of the consequences his murder might set loose? Can’t wait for the next installment.
This is wild, admittedly. Here's a few things I always keep in mind when reading analyses of what's going down in Moscow behind the scenes:
Krushchev was deposed from within for "showing weakness" (aka "Cuban Missile Crisis") by a group of insiders and no one saw it coming, far as I have read.
The USSR suddenly collapsed (peaceably, let it be remembered, and it could have gone so much worse) and a year later Gorbachev was subjected to an armed coup and no one saw those events coming, either; none of those salaried wonks at the State dept. or Pentagon as far as I have read.
So maybe this indicates no one who's yakking to the press in the official US media outlets really has a clue what's likely to happen next in Russia?
All these high-paid analysts and commentators and secret psy-ops agents -- maybe they're all bluffing? Or guessing? Or have an agenda?
Caveat emptor.
(This is NOT including Our Host here, who I know is reporting based on what he knows or can deduce. And who we all know has a history of frank journalism. Lest I be misunderstood.)
"o maybe this indicates no one who's yakking to the press in the official US media outlets really has a clue what's likely to happen next in Russia?
All these high-paid analysts and commentators and secret psy-ops agents -- maybe they're all bluffing? Or guessing? Or have an agenda?"
A stew of guessing, wishful thinking, and will say anything on the teevee or in the papers even when it contradicts previous statements, ignores/omits that which is known, and most of all requires the suspension of disbelief.
The pressure on those high-paid analysts and commentators to say something even when they don't have a clue must be immense.
In Vietnam, on my Army Advisory Team, I used to get so disgusted with CYA, wishy-washy, confusing Intelligence reports that I sent Saigon one of my own which was a parody of theirs. It included such lines as "the enemy may or may not attempt massive attacks throughout the Province", and "the enemy may or may not take the week off."
It was not well received.
The thing you never hear in the Intel biz is "I don't have a clue about..."
First of all, LMRAO to the point of ~wet eyes~.
Does capture not only VN, all of SEA at the time, then onward to each and every mil misadventure. All well-intentioned is the best one can say.
"The thing you never hear in the Intel biz is "I don't have a clue about..."
Perhaps one day the IC will adopt your "I don't have a clue" by reporting out only what is known (verified depending on the specific intel service) followed by all else is unknown, concluding with at this juncture we're clueless. That said, much firsthand intel was/is often dismissed due to some version of I/we don't believe it (personal bias).
Today do see an improvement due to blending all the intel disciplines which do lead to a higher probability/confidence one way or another. Still comes down to the personalities and institutional biases.
Of course, that doesn't apply to the media who has very limited resources and sources even less in a closed society like Ru. Have confidence the west has a decent feel for what actually transpired yet a lower confidence in what is likely to unfold until it does. The media, a big fat O to both. For example, today running FSB vids of a raid. Western media has no idea where Prigozhin had houses/apartments or offices. Since they can't confirm it, they shouldn't show them, never mind claim the FSB vid is authentic.
And another little tidbit around this morning was that Russia has expended half its fighting force and weaponry. And it doesn't sound like they've got replacements. This is so strange. I've lived a long time with Russia the way it always was, repressive, aggressive, cruel, murderous, thuggish and more so by the year. This is just weird.
Enjoyed the hell out of this.
Another unanswered question - and possibly related - is what's up with Gen. Yunus-bek Yevkurov, Deputy Minister of Defense, and formerly chief of the Russian republic of Ingushetia (2008-2019), last seen in Rostov-on-Don on June 23rd, chumming it up with Yevgeny Prigozhin (Wagner having just taken effective control of Southern Military District) and Vladimir Alekseyev, Deputy Chief of Staff. Yevkurov is possibly in the Lefortovo, keeping company with another of Prigozhin's co-conspirators, Gen. Sergei Surovikin. There may not be a purge, exactly, but there's definitely some tidying up.
It seems Russia punishes treason as harshly as we do.
Lucian,
This is great reporting and commentary. I read the article in the Post about this and was scratching my head wondering how he could do it. Obviously he is getting FSB help. Thank you.
Steve
Wow, great sitrep, but those are some murky waters. Where can I get some tea leaves?
Don't get them out of the first box that's offered. Just sayin'.
This coup flew the coup! I am confused. Is that okay? Prigozhin used his muscle against his friend, Vlad, and Vlad cowered? So Prig, the billionaire, gets all of his money and weaponry back because Vladimir really is a woose. Do I have that right?
Crazy stuff! As you wrote days ago, this still sounds like a developing situation. Thanks for sorting out all the bits and pieces into an absorbing narrative. WTF seems to be the theme of all this Russian mayhem.
What's next for Prigozhin and the Wagner Group? Will they be returning to Ukraine? Or on to bigger and better things?
All I can say is "WOW"