There might be some other journalists out there, I imagine, who are smart enough to make some of these same points. But I can’t think of another one who could make them so forcefully and eloquently.
I agree with Steve. Your military background, in particular, is valuable and unmatched in the other forums I frequent. No one else is getting inside Putin‘s head, which is really where we should be spending a little time.
Before war there is a long night of glorious fantasy. Meetings of tough men, devoted to national honor and to show the world what you are made of. The United States, the most powerful military ever created felt threatened by a one man band in the desert. We invested absurd prowess to a desert chieftain and his foreign minister told 60 minutes, "We don't have these weapons" and then with noticeable bitterness said, "Please, leave us alone." Those words by Terek Aziz are what we are hearing in Ukraine, a country gutted by WW2 facing a new devastation at the hands of bloated egos and men chasing past glories that never existed. Mr. Putin only sees victory and world respect in late 2022, that will not happen. Any occupation of Ukraine will resemble the pathetic and blood soaked mess America created in Iraq in 2003. To control Ukraine will necessitate mass slaughter of a population outraged at the destruction of their country. The world will test technology and new weapons through proxies just as nations did in the Spanish Civil War of 1936. When this tragedy ends, the recriminations and political turmoil might well disrupt the world for decades. The United States will get into it because as the Alpha power on Earth, we can't sit back and watch the destruction of Kyiv. The world will be watching. Such tragedy. Putin's legacy will be that he destroyed the world our grandfathers created after the last great war.
As improbable as this may seem, Putin appears to conflate the nation he rules with his personal ego. If this is so, then the upcoming Russian attack on Ukraine is as much about Putin the man as it is about geopolitics. Putin is a powerful autocrat who is short in statue, and he has an outsized ego. Bare chested on horseback? Hmmm . . . What other powerful leader once had that same toxic combination? Napoleon?
And lest we forget: "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
Churchill's 1939 key may not fit in Putin's 2022, but his framing does. The Mailer line I heard Dan Wolf quote most was (paraphrasing) "Don't understand me too soon." Often widely applicable..
i concur, LKTIV. your words are spot on describing the posturing and perfidy of this flavor of strongman who is the stand up role model of our own "strongman". i don't know, but i am sure putin is a formidable chess player, quite far above our simple wannabe, now removed from the table, who just admires the crown and pretty horses and castles on his board.
putin, like our wannabe autocrat, has no shame in blurting out lies that can be so easily disproven as long as his gullible acolytes gobble them up.
we should be so relieved that our self-declared strongman didn't have the brains to carry out his own autocratic dreams.
i remain wary, however, what one with considerably greater scheming ability might have as backup in hidden alternate moves on his chessboard if an initial gambit doesn't work.
Lucien while it is impossible to get inside the mind of one like Putin, the case you make is persuasive. Scary but persuasive.
So if your nation has a leader and a government and world class military to back him up regardless of what he does to dilute the national treasury and put its citizens at risk what to do?
We as in the United States and/or NATO are not going to war over Ukraine for a couple reasons. First the fact the average American does not want to put our boys (and girls) in harms way for "someone else's fight." Second, heavens we should run the risk of paying higher gas prices because of a war in some God forsaken place like Ukraine. Bottom line; our time horizon and limited perception as to what is REALLY important to us does not include the plight of the man and woman on the streets of Kiev.
But, it is the second reason why so many of us would not stand behind armed intervention. It is because far too many of us do not see what Putin is going to do as any long term threat to us. We would rather choose to believe Ukraine or a couple of its eastern provinces are the end of the line. We do not want to see what is going to inevitably come next. The Baltics. parts of Poland, etc. The calculus will be different there because these nations are now part of NATO but that will not matter to Mr. Putin who will simply make the case they were, first, part of Russia's historic sphere of influence and must be reclaimed for Russian honor.
Why do so many Russians support him. Particularly after years of seeing what freedom might mean for them and their children. I would suggest those interested in learning why Russians think the way the do and why Mr. Putin can almost surely depend upon them continuing to think that way read a book called creatively enough THE RUSSIANS. Published in 1976 at the height of the Cold War it gives a historic background to the Russian psyche going all the way back to the Czars and makes the argument that ingrained into the Russian psyche is the concept the people must depend upon a strong authoritarian figure to rule them and protect them from outside influences. Smith makes the case a critical part of the Russian DNA is utter belief in what the state says and , more importantly, that the individual must always defer to that state if Mother Russia is to survive.
I read this book in the late 70s to try to understand why the Cold War might never end. It did but what Putin is doing now is relying on the underlying inferiority complex of the average Russian to defer to him and his rule of a police state. He is a modern Czar and Stalin. And a lot of Russians still want that. No, not all but if you wonder why the democracy movement is having trouble getting traction in Russia this book explains a lot.
My point is while the average American sees him as no threat to our way of life far too many Russians see him as their savior and protector. Like it or not he has his public opinion on his side.
So glad that you wrote this, Lucian. It’s wearing me down to hear pundits, and friends, talk about why logic will prevent an invasion. As you signal, there is no logic to Putin’s approach, and Western thinkers have a hard time with the concept. Putin is beholden to no one, doesn’t care about the loss of life, famine, displacement etc… that will occur as a result of his invasion. He has no state apparatus, read Congress, to keep him in check or accountable. He’s most likely the richest and most isolated man in the world, and will do exactly as he pleases, regardless of consequences to the rest of the world. Let’s hope that he pleases to have shown off his firepower and goes home, though that is highly unlikely. It all rests on him and his whim.
"not half-baked guesses and wishful thinking dreamed up by a gaggle of rep-tie sportin’ neocons with itchy trigger fingers, every word he said was suspect. " Brings back memories, eh? Once again your way with words captures the essence of that 2003 historical moment (revived by hagiography of Colin Powell last year.) We the people had no say in all that despite the largest antiwar protests ever.
I've been reading/watching a lot of WW2 accounts of the Eastern Front (in 1943 now), and the names Kharkov, Kiev, Donbass are all bringing up horrors that we may be witnessing again, albeit at a smaller scale (but more firepower).
Some say Putin is merely a Proud Russian taking back Ukraine which he claims was stolen by NATO. As were Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czech, East Germany. He may intend to get them back with Blitzkrieg Tank Warfare. Should we be worried?
Putin should have invaded while trump was president. He missed his chance. Now Ukraine will become stronger while Russia stagnates. He knows this is his last chance.
Thanks for a well-reasoned insight into the psyche of a power mad brute. And for the comparisons with our own brute and our own foolish military adventures.
This will not end well for Putin or anyone else.
Don't forget this man has a vast arsenal of nukes at his disposal.
Lucian, you use the word “we”when discussing Iraq. I understand the speech device of speaking as Americans, but I am not part of that war effort, I’m not part of that “we.” That was Dick Cheney’s war. Like Trump does, he used force, and pushed it through a puppet president and some other malleable schmucks like Colin Powell. If not for Dick Cheney and his opportunistic support of his old company Halliburton, it would never have happened. As soon as he was VP, it went to his head.
There might be some other journalists out there, I imagine, who are smart enough to make some of these same points. But I can’t think of another one who could make them so forcefully and eloquently.
Thanks Steve. It's like I've waited for this time in my life and now it's here.
I agree with Steve. Your military background, in particular, is valuable and unmatched in the other forums I frequent. No one else is getting inside Putin‘s head, which is really where we should be spending a little time.
My turn now to agree with you, Roland. The military background, the psychological acuity—that’s why he keeps nailing it better than anybody else.
Yes, but oh is it creepy.
Fools venture forth where angels fear to tread. Call me a fool.
Not a fool Roland. Brave.
Thanks Sweetie
Before war there is a long night of glorious fantasy. Meetings of tough men, devoted to national honor and to show the world what you are made of. The United States, the most powerful military ever created felt threatened by a one man band in the desert. We invested absurd prowess to a desert chieftain and his foreign minister told 60 minutes, "We don't have these weapons" and then with noticeable bitterness said, "Please, leave us alone." Those words by Terek Aziz are what we are hearing in Ukraine, a country gutted by WW2 facing a new devastation at the hands of bloated egos and men chasing past glories that never existed. Mr. Putin only sees victory and world respect in late 2022, that will not happen. Any occupation of Ukraine will resemble the pathetic and blood soaked mess America created in Iraq in 2003. To control Ukraine will necessitate mass slaughter of a population outraged at the destruction of their country. The world will test technology and new weapons through proxies just as nations did in the Spanish Civil War of 1936. When this tragedy ends, the recriminations and political turmoil might well disrupt the world for decades. The United States will get into it because as the Alpha power on Earth, we can't sit back and watch the destruction of Kyiv. The world will be watching. Such tragedy. Putin's legacy will be that he destroyed the world our grandfathers created after the last great war.
Wishing he had been egotistically satisfied riding a horse bare chested.
Right now he is waking a sleeping tiger
As improbable as this may seem, Putin appears to conflate the nation he rules with his personal ego. If this is so, then the upcoming Russian attack on Ukraine is as much about Putin the man as it is about geopolitics. Putin is a powerful autocrat who is short in statue, and he has an outsized ego. Bare chested on horseback? Hmmm . . . What other powerful leader once had that same toxic combination? Napoleon?
Louis XIV, who famously said (or maybe didn’t, but it stuck anyhow) “L’Etat, c’est moi.”
Après moi, le déluge. —XV
Ha! That was echoing through my head earlier!
And lest we forget: "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."
Churchill's 1939 key may not fit in Putin's 2022, but his framing does. The Mailer line I heard Dan Wolf quote most was (paraphrasing) "Don't understand me too soon." Often widely applicable..
————————
Putin is a cotton-stuffed cod-piece.
Yup! Laughing here envisioning the other cod-piece stuffed with torn confidential documents that couldn’t be flushed.
That particular codpiece, however, is much much smaller. I am thinking pencil.
Is there such a thing as a “minnowpiece “?
I love you 🎉🎉
i concur, LKTIV. your words are spot on describing the posturing and perfidy of this flavor of strongman who is the stand up role model of our own "strongman". i don't know, but i am sure putin is a formidable chess player, quite far above our simple wannabe, now removed from the table, who just admires the crown and pretty horses and castles on his board.
putin, like our wannabe autocrat, has no shame in blurting out lies that can be so easily disproven as long as his gullible acolytes gobble them up.
we should be so relieved that our self-declared strongman didn't have the brains to carry out his own autocratic dreams.
i remain wary, however, what one with considerably greater scheming ability might have as backup in hidden alternate moves on his chessboard if an initial gambit doesn't work.
am i reading too much in putin's moves?
Nope. Remain wary.
Lucien while it is impossible to get inside the mind of one like Putin, the case you make is persuasive. Scary but persuasive.
So if your nation has a leader and a government and world class military to back him up regardless of what he does to dilute the national treasury and put its citizens at risk what to do?
We as in the United States and/or NATO are not going to war over Ukraine for a couple reasons. First the fact the average American does not want to put our boys (and girls) in harms way for "someone else's fight." Second, heavens we should run the risk of paying higher gas prices because of a war in some God forsaken place like Ukraine. Bottom line; our time horizon and limited perception as to what is REALLY important to us does not include the plight of the man and woman on the streets of Kiev.
But, it is the second reason why so many of us would not stand behind armed intervention. It is because far too many of us do not see what Putin is going to do as any long term threat to us. We would rather choose to believe Ukraine or a couple of its eastern provinces are the end of the line. We do not want to see what is going to inevitably come next. The Baltics. parts of Poland, etc. The calculus will be different there because these nations are now part of NATO but that will not matter to Mr. Putin who will simply make the case they were, first, part of Russia's historic sphere of influence and must be reclaimed for Russian honor.
Why do so many Russians support him. Particularly after years of seeing what freedom might mean for them and their children. I would suggest those interested in learning why Russians think the way the do and why Mr. Putin can almost surely depend upon them continuing to think that way read a book called creatively enough THE RUSSIANS. Published in 1976 at the height of the Cold War it gives a historic background to the Russian psyche going all the way back to the Czars and makes the argument that ingrained into the Russian psyche is the concept the people must depend upon a strong authoritarian figure to rule them and protect them from outside influences. Smith makes the case a critical part of the Russian DNA is utter belief in what the state says and , more importantly, that the individual must always defer to that state if Mother Russia is to survive.
I read this book in the late 70s to try to understand why the Cold War might never end. It did but what Putin is doing now is relying on the underlying inferiority complex of the average Russian to defer to him and his rule of a police state. He is a modern Czar and Stalin. And a lot of Russians still want that. No, not all but if you wonder why the democracy movement is having trouble getting traction in Russia this book explains a lot.
My point is while the average American sees him as no threat to our way of life far too many Russians see him as their savior and protector. Like it or not he has his public opinion on his side.
Exactly. This kind of writing is why I come here.
“…war is a black hole…”
Thanks as always for your brilliant analysis, Lucian. When will the world be free of these damaged, dangerous men? Will it ever?
Only when all 18 year olds tell old men in suits to buzz off!
So glad that you wrote this, Lucian. It’s wearing me down to hear pundits, and friends, talk about why logic will prevent an invasion. As you signal, there is no logic to Putin’s approach, and Western thinkers have a hard time with the concept. Putin is beholden to no one, doesn’t care about the loss of life, famine, displacement etc… that will occur as a result of his invasion. He has no state apparatus, read Congress, to keep him in check or accountable. He’s most likely the richest and most isolated man in the world, and will do exactly as he pleases, regardless of consequences to the rest of the world. Let’s hope that he pleases to have shown off his firepower and goes home, though that is highly unlikely. It all rests on him and his whim.
"not half-baked guesses and wishful thinking dreamed up by a gaggle of rep-tie sportin’ neocons with itchy trigger fingers, every word he said was suspect. " Brings back memories, eh? Once again your way with words captures the essence of that 2003 historical moment (revived by hagiography of Colin Powell last year.) We the people had no say in all that despite the largest antiwar protests ever.
I've been reading/watching a lot of WW2 accounts of the Eastern Front (in 1943 now), and the names Kharkov, Kiev, Donbass are all bringing up horrors that we may be witnessing again, albeit at a smaller scale (but more firepower).
Yes but America rallied around the party which lied them into a war.
Some say Putin is merely a Proud Russian taking back Ukraine which he claims was stolen by NATO. As were Poland, Romania, Hungary, Czech, East Germany. He may intend to get them back with Blitzkrieg Tank Warfare. Should we be worried?
Putin should have invaded while trump was president. He missed his chance. Now Ukraine will become stronger while Russia stagnates. He knows this is his last chance.
Thanks for a well-reasoned insight into the psyche of a power mad brute. And for the comparisons with our own brute and our own foolish military adventures.
This will not end well for Putin or anyone else.
Don't forget this man has a vast arsenal of nukes at his disposal.
Lucian, you use the word “we”when discussing Iraq. I understand the speech device of speaking as Americans, but I am not part of that war effort, I’m not part of that “we.” That was Dick Cheney’s war. Like Trump does, he used force, and pushed it through a puppet president and some other malleable schmucks like Colin Powell. If not for Dick Cheney and his opportunistic support of his old company Halliburton, it would never have happened. As soon as he was VP, it went to his head.