Vladimir Putin woke up today before his Red Square military parade and celebratory speech facing a hard reality: his army is losing the war in Ukraine.
Imagine what Sunday night was like for Putin? He knows that all that pageantry means nothing to Russians under 30. They don't care, WW2 is a ghost to them. Putin is just an old man making noise in the distance. Most Russians are wise enough to realize that Putin has already peaked and is heading toward a twilight. Think Stalin after WW2. Russia deserves better. Whomever succeeds Putin will hate him for leaving behind such a mess.
Russia deserves better, no doubt about that, but will they get it. Things are going to get worse for them before they get better, I fear. As for Putin, he probably knows only too well that his time has come and gone.
Are there any winners and losers in an insane war like this? The Ukrainians are being heroic, but how do they survive their terrible losses? Perhaps Putin seemed subdued, but I do not see him surrendering without inflicting more carnage on both sides--and maybe not even then? How and who can bring about some kind of peace?
They possibly exceed them, and in far, far shorter time. 2 months as opposed to 10 years. For comparison: "The war began in December 1979, and lasted until February 1989. About 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed, and about 35,000 were wounded. About two million Afghan civilians were killed." (Wikipedia)
For a closer approximation: back in March, "A U.S. official told CBS News on Wednesday the U.S. is estimating between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops have been killed, adding, however, that it is difficult to count war casualties at this time in Ukraine."
No matter how you cut it, this war is not going well for Putin. Seems he overestimated his war making powers.
What really put everything in stark contrast was that the top secret "Doomsday" plane that the Russians are so proud about did not have a fly over-in fact, " The entire air element of today's Victory Day parade - which would have consisted of 77 planes - was cancelled at the last minute, with officials blaming "bad weather ".
But it was pleasant and sunny weather.
The whole thing stinks of failure, Russia has lost and Putin is faced with a humiliating defeat by the West.
Putin is also claiming his invasion was to keep Nato from attacking Russia. What kind of drugs is he taking for his cancer he reportedly has? Must be the good stuff.
Vlad is so screwed. There is no way for him to maintain the all-powerful facade needed to maintain his position without winning his unwinnable war. Too bad, so sad.
Putin’s military targets Ukrainian civilians, shelters, hospitals, evacuation points like train stations, out of spite. They can’t win the war, so they target the defenseless. That’s what bullies do. That’s what cowards do. That’s what criminals do. If you can’t beat the Ukrainian military, even with more weaponry, then you kick the dog.
Garbage. Dirt. Sewage. That’s who the Russian leadership is. Not like that’s news. We’ve known that for a long time.
More evidence that pound for pound the Ukrainians are among the world's best fighters. But, what we do not want to have happen here is for Americans to get the idea they are doing enough to "win" the war. Zalensky has defined what winning means to him and his people and that is to push the Russians ALL THE WAY OUT OF UKRAINE including the Crimea and those two eastern provinces.
What WE, as in those of us who receive Lucien's updates need to do is to keep calling and writing our Senators and Congress Personas to up the ante and keep supplying Ukraine with the modern weaponry for the battle space and the humanitarian aid to ease the suffering the Russians have and will continue to cause. And, to push for MORE sanctions and boycotts on Russia and its people.
What Putin did on Victory Day was to appeal to that unique aspect of the Russian persona which somehow has (1) justified over the centuries barbaric behavior of the Russian people to in order to "protect Mother Russia" and (2) feed the special paranoia among Russians that "the West is the enemy and is always trying to conquer Mother Russia." This harkens back to the czars as well as Stalin and is, IMHO, one of the main reasons Soviet propaganda as well as what Putin is now selling resonates with a broad swath of Russians. Yes, they are cut off from the truth but, unfortunately, to many of them the truth is not what they are being told but what is in their national DNA.
Hate to say it but so long as too many Russian mothers are more than willing to send their sons to die for "Mother Russia" the answer is to kill those sons so Mother Russia doesn't get any bigger.
Apologies for the fatalism but way back in 1976 I read a book by one Hedrick Smith entitled , yes, "The Russians." Anyone wanting to understand the theory I am advancing should read it. Warning. It will not give you hope it is going to be as easy as making a few Big Macs and some Starbucks coffee available to the teens in Moscow is going to change the path of history.
Very well said, Mr. Bell. Russia's paranoia about the West is, indeed, deeply ingrained in their psyche as a result of a few incursions over the past couple of hundred years. Putin is milking those fears in spite of the fact that nobody for the past 70 years wants anything to do with invading Russia. That said, now is as good a time as any for the West to help Ukraine kick Russian ass to the point that they won't be able to do this again, at least for a long time.
This is a nice analysis of the current war and how it stands today. All I'd want to add, or would suggest were I an editor, would be an acknowledgement that Russia *is* entitled to celebrate victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war. And its sacrifices have been often overlooked or undervalued by Western writers. Not that this has anything at all to do with today's conflict. (And Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in those days, and Ukrainians formed a large part of the Red Army, and most of Ukraine was occupied by Germany for years in that war and the Ukrainians suffered terribly then.)
I could look up numbers and statistics in some books if my library wasn't mainly in a different location from where I'm posting now, but the USSR faced the bulk of Germany's military for years and was the primary foe that ground it up, one battle at a time, over 1941-45, making it possible for the Anglo-Allies to successfully invade Southern and Western Europe in 1943-44. Most German casualties were suffered on the Eastern Front, along with tremendous losses of equipment. And of course the Soviets seized Berlin to mark an end of the war -- and we should be glad that we "let them" do so, or the British and Americans would have suffered the horrible casualties that battle produced, and then had to give up that territory to the Soviet occupation already settled at the Yalta conference.
These V-E Day events have been hijacked in Moscow by Putin, but in the long view, the world does owe a grudging thanks to the Russian war effort back then, whatever we may think of their leadership or actions today. And you don't have to approve of Stalin to say so (he was a right bastard in all respects).
That sums up the situation exactly. Biden said today he is trying to figure out what Putin's end game will be. There is no way he can admit defeat but what could happen I wonder, If he did at some point decide to cut his losses and withdraw troops to Russia? Could he face the humiliation? And if he survived it all as still retained power would he give up on Ukraine? It seems unlikely. Maybe he would continue to lob shells and missiles from Russian territory and from submarines in the Black sea. This could go on for ever. simply out of anger and revenge. How could Ukraine ever start to rebuild und get life and the economy back to normal under those conditions. If this were a novel the author would probably have the West join forces with Ukraine militarily and invade Russia which would cause them to retaliate on the west with a nuclear onslaught. I wonder if the Biden administration is thinking ahead and drawing up ma plan of action against any of these scenarios. I don't think there would be any good options. I'm glad I'm not president ....
Superb as usual. Is there anywhere else one can find this kind of sophisticated reporting and analysis?
Thank you Mr. Truscott…
It’s not over until the fat lady sings. Putin has to be eliminated and there needs to be reparations for Ukraine.
Imagine what Sunday night was like for Putin? He knows that all that pageantry means nothing to Russians under 30. They don't care, WW2 is a ghost to them. Putin is just an old man making noise in the distance. Most Russians are wise enough to realize that Putin has already peaked and is heading toward a twilight. Think Stalin after WW2. Russia deserves better. Whomever succeeds Putin will hate him for leaving behind such a mess.
Russia deserves better, no doubt about that, but will they get it. Things are going to get worse for them before they get better, I fear. As for Putin, he probably knows only too well that his time has come and gone.
Well, it’s great to hear some informed “good news” amidst all this carnage. Bravo, Ukraine!
Are there any winners and losers in an insane war like this? The Ukrainians are being heroic, but how do they survive their terrible losses? Perhaps Putin seemed subdued, but I do not see him surrendering without inflicting more carnage on both sides--and maybe not even then? How and who can bring about some kind of peace?
Time for one of the few surviving generals to save the broken military by terminating Putin with extreme prejudice.
Schadenfreude. May he continue to suffer until the government, military, and oligarchs turn on him. And they will.
I wonder how long before the losses equal Russia's debacle in Afghanistan.
They possibly exceed them, and in far, far shorter time. 2 months as opposed to 10 years. For comparison: "The war began in December 1979, and lasted until February 1989. About 15,000 Soviet soldiers were killed, and about 35,000 were wounded. About two million Afghan civilians were killed." (Wikipedia)
For a closer approximation: back in March, "A U.S. official told CBS News on Wednesday the U.S. is estimating between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops have been killed, adding, however, that it is difficult to count war casualties at this time in Ukraine."
No matter how you cut it, this war is not going well for Putin. Seems he overestimated his war making powers.
Well on the way to being worse, if not already, from what I've read.
What really put everything in stark contrast was that the top secret "Doomsday" plane that the Russians are so proud about did not have a fly over-in fact, " The entire air element of today's Victory Day parade - which would have consisted of 77 planes - was cancelled at the last minute, with officials blaming "bad weather ".
But it was pleasant and sunny weather.
The whole thing stinks of failure, Russia has lost and Putin is faced with a humiliating defeat by the West.
Putin is also claiming his invasion was to keep Nato from attacking Russia. What kind of drugs is he taking for his cancer he reportedly has? Must be the good stuff.
What a pathetic old man
Better that NATO invites Putin to attack all the member countries...a Western victory for sure!
Vlad is so screwed. There is no way for him to maintain the all-powerful facade needed to maintain his position without winning his unwinnable war. Too bad, so sad.
Spite. That’s the word I’ve been looking for.
Putin’s military targets Ukrainian civilians, shelters, hospitals, evacuation points like train stations, out of spite. They can’t win the war, so they target the defenseless. That’s what bullies do. That’s what cowards do. That’s what criminals do. If you can’t beat the Ukrainian military, even with more weaponry, then you kick the dog.
Garbage. Dirt. Sewage. That’s who the Russian leadership is. Not like that’s news. We’ve known that for a long time.
More evidence that pound for pound the Ukrainians are among the world's best fighters. But, what we do not want to have happen here is for Americans to get the idea they are doing enough to "win" the war. Zalensky has defined what winning means to him and his people and that is to push the Russians ALL THE WAY OUT OF UKRAINE including the Crimea and those two eastern provinces.
What WE, as in those of us who receive Lucien's updates need to do is to keep calling and writing our Senators and Congress Personas to up the ante and keep supplying Ukraine with the modern weaponry for the battle space and the humanitarian aid to ease the suffering the Russians have and will continue to cause. And, to push for MORE sanctions and boycotts on Russia and its people.
What Putin did on Victory Day was to appeal to that unique aspect of the Russian persona which somehow has (1) justified over the centuries barbaric behavior of the Russian people to in order to "protect Mother Russia" and (2) feed the special paranoia among Russians that "the West is the enemy and is always trying to conquer Mother Russia." This harkens back to the czars as well as Stalin and is, IMHO, one of the main reasons Soviet propaganda as well as what Putin is now selling resonates with a broad swath of Russians. Yes, they are cut off from the truth but, unfortunately, to many of them the truth is not what they are being told but what is in their national DNA.
Hate to say it but so long as too many Russian mothers are more than willing to send their sons to die for "Mother Russia" the answer is to kill those sons so Mother Russia doesn't get any bigger.
Apologies for the fatalism but way back in 1976 I read a book by one Hedrick Smith entitled , yes, "The Russians." Anyone wanting to understand the theory I am advancing should read it. Warning. It will not give you hope it is going to be as easy as making a few Big Macs and some Starbucks coffee available to the teens in Moscow is going to change the path of history.
Very well said, Mr. Bell. Russia's paranoia about the West is, indeed, deeply ingrained in their psyche as a result of a few incursions over the past couple of hundred years. Putin is milking those fears in spite of the fact that nobody for the past 70 years wants anything to do with invading Russia. That said, now is as good a time as any for the West to help Ukraine kick Russian ass to the point that they won't be able to do this again, at least for a long time.
This is a nice analysis of the current war and how it stands today. All I'd want to add, or would suggest were I an editor, would be an acknowledgement that Russia *is* entitled to celebrate victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war. And its sacrifices have been often overlooked or undervalued by Western writers. Not that this has anything at all to do with today's conflict. (And Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union in those days, and Ukrainians formed a large part of the Red Army, and most of Ukraine was occupied by Germany for years in that war and the Ukrainians suffered terribly then.)
I could look up numbers and statistics in some books if my library wasn't mainly in a different location from where I'm posting now, but the USSR faced the bulk of Germany's military for years and was the primary foe that ground it up, one battle at a time, over 1941-45, making it possible for the Anglo-Allies to successfully invade Southern and Western Europe in 1943-44. Most German casualties were suffered on the Eastern Front, along with tremendous losses of equipment. And of course the Soviets seized Berlin to mark an end of the war -- and we should be glad that we "let them" do so, or the British and Americans would have suffered the horrible casualties that battle produced, and then had to give up that territory to the Soviet occupation already settled at the Yalta conference.
These V-E Day events have been hijacked in Moscow by Putin, but in the long view, the world does owe a grudging thanks to the Russian war effort back then, whatever we may think of their leadership or actions today. And you don't have to approve of Stalin to say so (he was a right bastard in all respects).
That sums up the situation exactly. Biden said today he is trying to figure out what Putin's end game will be. There is no way he can admit defeat but what could happen I wonder, If he did at some point decide to cut his losses and withdraw troops to Russia? Could he face the humiliation? And if he survived it all as still retained power would he give up on Ukraine? It seems unlikely. Maybe he would continue to lob shells and missiles from Russian territory and from submarines in the Black sea. This could go on for ever. simply out of anger and revenge. How could Ukraine ever start to rebuild und get life and the economy back to normal under those conditions. If this were a novel the author would probably have the West join forces with Ukraine militarily and invade Russia which would cause them to retaliate on the west with a nuclear onslaught. I wonder if the Biden administration is thinking ahead and drawing up ma plan of action against any of these scenarios. I don't think there would be any good options. I'm glad I'm not president ....
A 4.0 for you on this one, Mr. Truscott
Thank you. Great article!
No fly zone, no fly zone, no fly zone.... and thanks for more great insight!