There was footage from Ukraine on the news yesterday that really brought me up short. It showed a squad of Ukrainian soldiers moving through a forest somewhere outside of Kyiv in contact with the Russian enemy. They were wearing camouflage uniforms and carrying rifles and RPG’s and anti-tank rockets and were hiding behind trees and small rises in the land to avoid being seen by the enemy. As Russian rifle fire crackled from somewhere out of sight, they returned fire and moved forward to new positions of cover from which they continued to fire their weapons.
When his army is sufficiently broken and the money to repair it is AWOL, perhaps some colonel or brigadier general will organize a coup against Putin, if for no other reason than to stem the breakage in the Russian military. Yesterday on a Ukrainian Telegram channel, I saw a Russian fighter jet crashing, presumably brought down by a defensive weapon that cost Ukraine a fraction of what it cost Russia to build the jet (not to mention the cost of training the pilot and weapons officers who were on board. According to the translation of the Ukrainian description of the action, both crew members ejected. No word on whether they were captured, killed or got away. Hopefully it was one of the first two options so they can’t be given another jet to use to murder civilians. But even if they got away, the Ukrainians (or whoever paid for the weapon that brought down the jet) got a terrific return on their investment and Russia has to buy a replacement fighter — if it can find the money and someone willing to sell them the technology.
To Putin (like trmp) Money + acquisitions + influence = power. Biden has removed all three from Putin. He has been essentially erased. It will take some time for him to completely disappear…. and many more lives.
Thank for such a moving and interesting article Lucian. As a Vietnam War protester and later as a drafted U.S. Army veteran(1968-1970) I was inspired by two anti war songs from the ‘60’s that perfectly capture the sentiments of your written words. One is “The Universal Soldier” by Buffy Sainte-Marie. The other is “Where Have All The Flowers Gone” written by Pete Seeger and, ironically, based on the Ukrainian folk song Koloda-Duda. I recommend finding these songs and lyrics on YouTube.
As an aside, I was a student at George Washington University during the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. Fear of Soviet nuclear missiles landing in the presumed #1 target of Washington, DC gripped everyone. As you know, President Kennedy called Khrushchev’s bluff and the crisis ended. I relate this story because I think America and NATO should fight the Russians on the ground and in the air sooner than later. Let’s save the Ukrainian people. Putin will back down or be overthrown by his own military.
Phil Ochs's "I Ain't Marching Any More" was another big one for me. I'd forgotten that "Where Have All the Flowers Gone" was based on a Ukrainian song. Thanks for the reminder.
I have wandered in and out of the same thought on more than one occasion. Based on what we are seeing, The U.S. and or Nato would make fast work of Russia in the Ukraine. Perhaps just a few days. And, if this is a third of the Russian army and it is all this bad and broken down, I am guessing fast work of the rest of them as well. Only problem is the nuclear option. How crazy is Putin and does he believe that somehow, he would live through it all? Hopefully he isn't able to push the button by himself. I am guessing his nuclear weapons are not in any better shape than his army is.
One can only hope that Putin wanna-bes around the world will learn something from this disaster, but I doubt it. Power and the lust to use it is too strong in human DNA, it seems. But there is a glimmer of hope that the rest of the world will see what happens when nations unite against an aggressor and do it again when another despot or nation’s leaders decide to go to war against a neighbor…time will tell.
I'm wondering what long-term effects the rallying round of "the West" will have right here in the U.S. of A. Our democracy hasn't been doing so well lately. We -- most of us, anyway -- managed to survive the Trump presidency, but the Supreme Court, the Republican Party, and the oligarchs behind them continue to carry out their own flanking maneuvers, and they've long since stopped being stealthy about it. They're threatening election workers, disrupting school board meetings, and throwing hissy fits about public health guidelines. I can't call them an invasion, really, since they didn't cross any borders to get here, but in some ways it feels like an invasion. The Ukrainians think democracy is worth fighting for -- can we learn from their example?
Pray you are correct but fear Putin may feel a lot differently as in along the might always makes right line of thinking. Sanctions will eventually do exactly what you predict to the Russian people but that group does not, necessarily, include Putin , his inner circle and the oligarchs who have billions salted away. Their breaking point is a lot longer than the average citizen or peasant who lives 50 miles outside Moscow and, for all intent and purpose, in the 19th century.
You are correct. Time is the critical variable. Unfortunately , the Ukrainians have less and less of it each day Putin continues to indiscriminately turn their cities into rubble and kill their women and children. He is, obviously, thinking in a much shorter time horizon than you are.
Re the oligarchs who have billions salted away: if the billions are in Russian banks, they are worthless. And if they are in banks in the US or other western countries, they are frozen.
shee-rah. I am not a financial planner but I am betting these oligarchs are. Most of them have planned for this and have, IMHO, some more "liquid assets" salted away, say like gold and diamonds as well as currencies from nations with which we still do business. And, if these sanctions do continue to bite back home you can bet there will be a very significant black market in Russia where the oligarchs and their families are not going to go hungry. One reason all the experts told us "sanctions will take time" is that in any society like Russia the guys and gals at the top are the last to feel the pain,.
Now if the average Russian was inclined to build and use a few guillotines we might see some results but that is not likely to happen. More than half of the "average" Russians either overtly support this butcher or are cowed by his "state police."
It's an interesting idea. Certainly, this war has proven that the tank is economically unfeasible as war technology when an eighty thousand dollar Javelin can destroy a twenty million dollar tank.
Whatever Putin had in mind at the start of this debacle, it didn't work out. It's like the bank robber, unable to break into the vault, decides to burn the place down instead. Nobody wins.
Especially interesting to me is China's response to Russian overtures by basically saying "Russia who?" and denying even the approach for aid. They clearly knew about Putin's plan, and watched it with interest. I'm sure his ridiculously poor military performance did not impress.
It's in China's best interest (both historically and in future) to see Russia fail. They may sit on the sidelines while the country implodes and perhaps descends into civil war, then extend a "helping hand" that turns Russia into a vassal state or even a satellite. No matter what happens, China emerges stronger than ever...barring, of course, total nuclear war.
You wrote: "Ukraine will be so damaged that Putin will have destroyed the thing he said he wanted...Maybe...wars as we have known them will become obsolete, replaced by collective action that will produce...civilizational change..."
Forgive my editing, but those phrases popped out at me and gave me a thought. What if we could muster "collective action" and help put Ukraine back together again after this heinous destruction is over? Imagine what we could make of that nation if we worked to "build it back better."
Where is the political system which guarantees ego maniacal psychopaths with corrupt backers may not accumulate power to incarcerate, kill and start wars? Please don’t suggest the one centered in the District of Columbia ( which if granted statehood would be the most corrupt in the nation).
When his army is sufficiently broken and the money to repair it is AWOL, perhaps some colonel or brigadier general will organize a coup against Putin, if for no other reason than to stem the breakage in the Russian military. Yesterday on a Ukrainian Telegram channel, I saw a Russian fighter jet crashing, presumably brought down by a defensive weapon that cost Ukraine a fraction of what it cost Russia to build the jet (not to mention the cost of training the pilot and weapons officers who were on board. According to the translation of the Ukrainian description of the action, both crew members ejected. No word on whether they were captured, killed or got away. Hopefully it was one of the first two options so they can’t be given another jet to use to murder civilians. But even if they got away, the Ukrainians (or whoever paid for the weapon that brought down the jet) got a terrific return on their investment and Russia has to buy a replacement fighter — if it can find the money and someone willing to sell them the technology.
To Putin (like trmp) Money + acquisitions + influence = power. Biden has removed all three from Putin. He has been essentially erased. It will take some time for him to completely disappear…. and many more lives.
Perhaps Putin is really a Ferengi in disguise.
Thank for such a moving and interesting article Lucian. As a Vietnam War protester and later as a drafted U.S. Army veteran(1968-1970) I was inspired by two anti war songs from the ‘60’s that perfectly capture the sentiments of your written words. One is “The Universal Soldier” by Buffy Sainte-Marie. The other is “Where Have All The Flowers Gone” written by Pete Seeger and, ironically, based on the Ukrainian folk song Koloda-Duda. I recommend finding these songs and lyrics on YouTube.
As an aside, I was a student at George Washington University during the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. Fear of Soviet nuclear missiles landing in the presumed #1 target of Washington, DC gripped everyone. As you know, President Kennedy called Khrushchev’s bluff and the crisis ended. I relate this story because I think America and NATO should fight the Russians on the ground and in the air sooner than later. Let’s save the Ukrainian people. Putin will back down or be overthrown by his own military.
Phil Ochs's "I Ain't Marching Any More" was another big one for me. I'd forgotten that "Where Have All the Flowers Gone" was based on a Ukrainian song. Thanks for the reminder.
I have wandered in and out of the same thought on more than one occasion. Based on what we are seeing, The U.S. and or Nato would make fast work of Russia in the Ukraine. Perhaps just a few days. And, if this is a third of the Russian army and it is all this bad and broken down, I am guessing fast work of the rest of them as well. Only problem is the nuclear option. How crazy is Putin and does he believe that somehow, he would live through it all? Hopefully he isn't able to push the button by himself. I am guessing his nuclear weapons are not in any better shape than his army is.
My favorites! Saw Buffy St. Marie again about 4 or 5 years ago. Had to ask myself, have we learned nothing?
https://youtu.be/VGWsGyNsw00
I share this dream. The alternative is possible extinction.
I think you may be right here, if,the mad man running the show there doesn’t do something even more stupid than he’s doing now…
Stupid or dangerous?
Probably both
One can only hope that Putin wanna-bes around the world will learn something from this disaster, but I doubt it. Power and the lust to use it is too strong in human DNA, it seems. But there is a glimmer of hope that the rest of the world will see what happens when nations unite against an aggressor and do it again when another despot or nation’s leaders decide to go to war against a neighbor…time will tell.
Yes, a way to hold despots and warmongers accountable without the violence, death, and destruction of war.
I'm wondering what long-term effects the rallying round of "the West" will have right here in the U.S. of A. Our democracy hasn't been doing so well lately. We -- most of us, anyway -- managed to survive the Trump presidency, but the Supreme Court, the Republican Party, and the oligarchs behind them continue to carry out their own flanking maneuvers, and they've long since stopped being stealthy about it. They're threatening election workers, disrupting school board meetings, and throwing hissy fits about public health guidelines. I can't call them an invasion, really, since they didn't cross any borders to get here, but in some ways it feels like an invasion. The Ukrainians think democracy is worth fighting for -- can we learn from their example?
Pray you are correct but fear Putin may feel a lot differently as in along the might always makes right line of thinking. Sanctions will eventually do exactly what you predict to the Russian people but that group does not, necessarily, include Putin , his inner circle and the oligarchs who have billions salted away. Their breaking point is a lot longer than the average citizen or peasant who lives 50 miles outside Moscow and, for all intent and purpose, in the 19th century.
You are correct. Time is the critical variable. Unfortunately , the Ukrainians have less and less of it each day Putin continues to indiscriminately turn their cities into rubble and kill their women and children. He is, obviously, thinking in a much shorter time horizon than you are.
Re the oligarchs who have billions salted away: if the billions are in Russian banks, they are worthless. And if they are in banks in the US or other western countries, they are frozen.
shee-rah. I am not a financial planner but I am betting these oligarchs are. Most of them have planned for this and have, IMHO, some more "liquid assets" salted away, say like gold and diamonds as well as currencies from nations with which we still do business. And, if these sanctions do continue to bite back home you can bet there will be a very significant black market in Russia where the oligarchs and their families are not going to go hungry. One reason all the experts told us "sanctions will take time" is that in any society like Russia the guys and gals at the top are the last to feel the pain,.
Now if the average Russian was inclined to build and use a few guillotines we might see some results but that is not likely to happen. More than half of the "average" Russians either overtly support this butcher or are cowed by his "state police."
We can only hope and pray that that does in fact come.about.
Let's hope Putin is not a suicide who decides to take us with him.
This makes a lot of sense to me. Another fine column.
It's an interesting idea. Certainly, this war has proven that the tank is economically unfeasible as war technology when an eighty thousand dollar Javelin can destroy a twenty million dollar tank.
Whatever Putin had in mind at the start of this debacle, it didn't work out. It's like the bank robber, unable to break into the vault, decides to burn the place down instead. Nobody wins.
Especially interesting to me is China's response to Russian overtures by basically saying "Russia who?" and denying even the approach for aid. They clearly knew about Putin's plan, and watched it with interest. I'm sure his ridiculously poor military performance did not impress.
It's in China's best interest (both historically and in future) to see Russia fail. They may sit on the sidelines while the country implodes and perhaps descends into civil war, then extend a "helping hand" that turns Russia into a vassal state or even a satellite. No matter what happens, China emerges stronger than ever...barring, of course, total nuclear war.
I don’t recall ever being so close to the wages of war in the past. Please that your rational, reasonable explanation is correct.
You wrote: "Ukraine will be so damaged that Putin will have destroyed the thing he said he wanted...Maybe...wars as we have known them will become obsolete, replaced by collective action that will produce...civilizational change..."
Forgive my editing, but those phrases popped out at me and gave me a thought. What if we could muster "collective action" and help put Ukraine back together again after this heinous destruction is over? Imagine what we could make of that nation if we worked to "build it back better."
Oh!!!
Where is the political system which guarantees ego maniacal psychopaths with corrupt backers may not accumulate power to incarcerate, kill and start wars? Please don’t suggest the one centered in the District of Columbia ( which if granted statehood would be the most corrupt in the nation).