91 Comments

I totally agree with Lucian, as usual. To repeat and add to it:On the political front, the main stream media for the most part, continues to support Trump, ignoring his deteriorating brain evidenced by his "word salads" in his rallies, instead focusing on the very normal things that an old Biden has, as do all old folks, like there is something wrong. They are doing just like they did in 2016, helping Trump. Compare a decent, intelligent person putting his nation first with a narcissist, a wannabe dictator, promising to only obey parts of the US Constitution, who will get rid of the vermin, have his minions swear loyalty to him only....and that is a choice?

Most of the main stream media is not looking at what really happened in South Carolina after Trump won. Strange.

Yesterday was in reality a major win for Biden in the match up between Trump and Nikki.

While there is no question Trump will be the MAGA nominee for what was once the GOP, in a vote that consisted of older white people, mostly evangelical, Haley got almost 40% of the votes. Blacks did not show up to vote for him as had been predicted.

That number itself isn’t a problem in a primaries which Trump is sure to keep winning. But South Carolina includes some serious, and fatal reasons for concern in a general election. Trump lost moderate and liberal voters to Haley by a wide margin and college educated voters, according to exit polls. And, according to AP VoteCast, a bit over 1 in 5 GOP primary voters said they would not vote for Trump in November if he was the party’s nominee.

Trump in his victory speech continued to show his mental deterioration. While unlike the day before, he did not call his wife Mercedes (aka Melania, who has yet to be with him at his victory speeches or rallies?!?), he did have to read off his notes- even the names of his family. And he said he had 100% of the auto workers in Michigan behind him. Nope. He also claimed he won more than 90% of the voters and had united totally the party behind him like never before in history. Really? Wrong.

The former president cannot win in November with those numbers. His strategists, if they have half a brain, got to be pooping their pants.

I believe Nikki is hanging in just in case Trump is found guilty in a criminal trial and the party needs another person to beat Biden.

We will see.

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Nikki doesn't need a campaign, I would say it's a combination jail and/or stroke watch.

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I have to wonder if Trump strategists are counting on some of the same post election chaos as they created before: vote count challenges, subversion of electors and "civil unrest". They do not look all that panicky to me...(I'm starting to wake up in the "wee sma's" and begin worrying about stuff like this--thus making sleep impossible for the rest of the night.)

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Of course they are. Don't lose sleep over it. Dems will prevail!!

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MSNBC been covering this thoroughly.

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Yesterday I saw video of the Dee-ranged Convicted Sexual Predator doing egg-zactly what you wrote: looking down at the podium/notes as he recited his family's names. Except, he forgot Eric and Lara. Later, after someone passed him a note or psst! he mentioned *that* son, and his reference to Lara included (paraddiddle on the drum, then ride cymbal at) her attractiveness.

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Lucian,

You are correct. Though the media is reporting this as a big win for Trump, the numbers don’t translate well to a general election. The results showed that over 80% of Trump voters, were very conservative, 79% non college graduates. 74% evangelical Christians. Not exactly a national demographic. I am sure that over 80% were white as well.

Good analysis, and thanks.

Peace,

Steve Dundas

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I'll bet WAY over 80% were white.

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And he thinks Black people empathize with him because he was indicted (as if all Black people have also been indicted). I don’t think that will endear him to them.

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founding

Over 90%

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Added nightmares for P1135809: 1. There is a substantial collection of video clips of him boasting about getting rid of Roe — which is a vote-killer everywhere save in snake-handling, tongue-speaking church congregations. 2. Installing his daughter-in-law (who looks like an advertisement designed to disincentivize collagen implants) will suppress big donors to the RNC and jeopardize the financing of the get-out-the-vote ground game so vital to a campaign that counts on Election Day turnout for its margins. (A bit of hoisting on his own anti-early voting pétard.) 3. A whole lotta PAC money is being diverted to cover his legal fees (IF — a big if — he’s actually paying that clown car full of lawyers) and is also unavailable to finance that ground game. 4. Joe Biden is out fundraising him by a lot. 5. If you are sitting in a courtroom on trial for felonies, you are not out pressing the flesh and doing rallies. 6. He’s in favor of a national abortion ban at 16 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and maternal health — which should piss off the snake handlers almost as much as it pisses off the rational voters. I hope Putin is keeping the guest dasha outside Moscow ready for his puppet; he’s going to need somewhere to flee to when this all gels.

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Don't forget the Russian pee girls!

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Love your description of Lara!!

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I love the fact that he will bleed the RNC dry paying his legal bills! You go, Lara Trump! 😝😝😝

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Great piece Lucian.

Without benefit of having heard and Sunday morning talk shows, so going on instinct and intuition—I’d say the loser with the overactive fingers had a bad night.

When 40% of Rs in a primary in SOUTH CAROLINA explicitly reject you, it says a lot about what may happen in November.

R is for rout.

Meanwhile, America is fortunate to have an extraordinarily savvy, experienced, and effective president.

Overwhelming evidence, growing daily, shows he’s leading our society and economy forward despite unremitting MAGA attempts to utterly sabotage governance, undermine national security, and instill hatred in the minds of its followers as their primary civic attribute.

November should just not be a hard choice for Americans who care about our society, its stability, and its progress.

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I have said this all along. He is winning primaries, not winning in landslides despite how the msm interprets it for him. I have read varying opinions on percentages of usual right voting citizens who could abandon him in 2024 that would spell doom for his return to the WH. The IVF issue, along with his bragging he overturned abortion access, will be a further catalyst to drive voters away from him. I hope there will be at least one more trial at which he is found guilty before Nov.

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Imagine if Biden referred to his wife Jill as “Jane” or “Joan”? The fucking Times would have a six-column headline.

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True that. Trump wears diapers and Bided gets negative press if he so much as f*^ts.

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By contrast, Biden, in the Democratic SC primary, utterly pulverized his feeble opposition, getting more than 96 percent of the vote. One his challengers has since quit and the other is broke. 96 percent is a remarkable total in an American election, even against weak opposition. Still, the percentage was barely remarked upon by the political press.

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True that! Trump is running essentially as an incumbent and his primary performance mirrors that of another actual incumbent, LBJ, who sensibly dropped out of the race when he saw results like these!

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Thanks for emphasizing Trump's drawbacks are slowly being realized by the broader GOP voting base, even as most of our feckless corporate mass media continues to avert their eyes from Trump's practically endless lies, distortions, irate attacks on women and the poor, on immigrants, the rule of law, even rationality itself comes in for a good kicking - no, rather than cover that in depth or at least remind viewers and/or listeners that it is what most characterizes Donald J. Trump, they pivot to Biden's age, and treat Trump as a more or less "normal" candidate for the presidency, albeit facing many legal problems.

See also:

https://whowhatwhy.org/international/ukraine/beware-the-weak-man/ *** Excerpt ***

"Who is the weak man? You shall know him by his itinerary. The weak man knows that Ukraine is what matters, so he goes to Texas. The weak man of Congress buys some casual clothes, has a staffer write a speech about the border, and recites it word for word. A real invasion is replaced by a pretend one. The weak man invites us to fear phantoms rather than face issues.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) did this, as did other American legislators seeking excuses not to help Ukraine. While I was in Munich, Elon Musk put on a cowboy hat and took his turn. In fall 2022, when Ukraine might have won the war, Musk cut the Ukrainians off from Starlink. Rather than going to Ukraine and learning, he made a profoundly bad decision on the basis of personal fear.

The Munich Security Conference is a place where people get together to take action. Unlike Johnson and Musk, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) was at least present. But he was there to demotivate. Invited to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vance made his excuses. Rather than looking a courageous man in the eye, he retreated to his hotel room and searched for “dolphin” and “women” on the internet.

At a meeting I attended, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that her country would donate its entire stock of artillery shells to Ukraine. Vance stood outside the building and said that we should give up. He told the leaders of a democracy (but not to their faces) to give up territory. If the Ukrainians followed his advice, the chain of events would be similar to what happened the last time fascism was appeased in Munich: the collapse of faith in order, and a world war.

Ukraine could win, if Americans would help, but our weak men have cut off the weapons. Musk spreads Russian propaganda. Vance amplifies Russian foreign policy. Trump follows Putin’s wishes. Johnson maneuvers for months to block a vote on aid to Ukraine. And so the Ukrainians, fighting for their lives, run out of artillery shells, and must withdraw from losses from Avdiivka.

The weak man kills because he lacks the energy to act and consumes the energy of others. He scorns those who struggle with real danger, and wants them to fail and die.

The problem is not masculinity. Radek Sikorski, the foreign minister of Poland, is a man’s man from central casting: good looks, deep voice, firm stare, bad jokes. When not in office, he was raising money for pickup trucks and driving them to the front. At Munich, plenty of competent men were at work, such as Czech President Petr Pavel, a former general, who has been searching the world for artillery shells to send to Ukraine. The problem is brittle masculinity, the male form of weakness that substitutes mendacious prattle for necessary action.

Instead of aiding Ukraine, the weak men of Congress have dedicated months to a long series of lies that have wasted the energy and good faith of others.

First Johnson said that he wanted to protect the border and would pass aid for Ukraine if it was connected to a border bill; then, when presented with exactly this solution, he rejected it. " *****

Reprinted, with permission, from Tim Snyder’s substack, Thinking about….

Timothy Snyder, Richard C. Levin professor of history and professor of global affairs at Yale University, is an American historian of Europe and a public intellectual on both continents. Among his many books are On Tyranny and Bloodlands. His work inspires art and music, and is read at protests around the world.

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Thank you!

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I listened to Skorski’s speech. I thought he was brilliant and basically told Putin that just dare he try to invade Poland or other Nato countries, they will be no cowering down to him .

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Great analysis as always. Trump's campaign song after last night could be "Don't cry for me, oh my Charleston!" But the main thing to focus on is not how poorly he is doing in the primaries, even though he is winning them, but that in a one on one race in November, Biden will win.

So there are two imperatives right now. The first is to make sure that between now and then no third party candidate from the center or left of center stays in the race to draw votes away from Biden. Whether they are persuaded it is for the common good or bought off with promises of roles in the next Biden administration, I don't care - just make sure they are not in the race. The second is to mount the largest GOTV campaign possible in every state, but particularly those decisive swing states (AZ, MI, PA, GA, etc.) no matter the cost to Democratic Party coffers. Then we could be better assured of a Biden win in November.

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Im not too worried about trump losing. Im worried about the interregnum. That's where trump will steal the election. With the help of johnson and the house reps.

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I agree. We are damned either way. The thought of it makes me nauseous .

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founding

With regard to the non-appearance of Melania at recent campaign events, the rumor I heard was that shortly after the 2020 loss, she renegotiated her pre-nup by which she promised not to divorce him, but would show up at very few—if any—campaign events.

With regard to his word-salads, at one Iowa event Trump carried on for at least 20 minutes toward the end of his speech talking about and praising a guy he claims to know who uses an ordinary drinking straw as a kind of divining rod to find subsurface crude oil. What the media never reports on are the number of people who walk out before he finishes speaking and the number who don’t walk out but spend the remaining time playing with their cellphones—totally tuning him out.

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Melania…she has been MIA for many months now. One reason is that her mother died. The other could be that last night Trump was talking about her at CPAC and he called her “Mercedes”. It was priceless! I did not watch the ridiculous antics nor did I listen to the stupid people who were on. Saw the video and it cracked me up. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2v2BnB6jn2g

I believe we are seeing the tides slowly turn towards Biden. Perhaps the R’s will stay home this time and not vote for Trump. My only worry is how the Palestinian Americans feel about Biden. I know in Michigan, there is a large representation there and they should not be ignored. Talib is encouraging people to vote “uncommitted” as she is furious that Joe and Kamala haven’t called for a ceasefire in Gaza. I understand how they feel with almost over 29,000+ people having been killed. I want Netanyahu gone. He too, thinks he’s a strong man now and quite frankly, we have helped make him into a monster. I say that as a Jew and I feel there are others who have the same feelings.

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Don't forget re-naming Pennsylvania! WHAT????

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founding

Thank you. My thoughts exactly.

When I heard that Trump won in a landslide, I looked at the numbers to see, expecting "landslide" meant Haley only got 25%. 40% got a wow out of me. I never thought Haley could come anywhere close to winning. But 40% is a huge piece of the Republican base. And, based on the NYT article, these are generally not people who like Trump but like Haley better. To large degree, these people disagree with us in this community on every single issue except one, Trump is horrifying, despicable and not fit to be president.

The Biden age issue is interesting. It sounds to me like part rationalization. I feel a little sorry for these people, lifelong Republicans, conservative, with no place to go. How would I feel, as someone who has never voted Republican in my life, if I thought the Democratic candidate was totally unacceptable? The "out" for them, the last point of resistance is, well, I can't vote for Biden he's...so old. The Biden campaign needs to take this excuse away from them, so they at least stay home, or reluctantly pull the figurative lever for a Democrat.

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Feb 25·edited Feb 25Liked by Lucian K. Truscott IV

After the 4.5 contests it's clear Trump has problems with a large group of Rs and right-leaning Independents.

And there is no doubt President Biden has his problems within the traditional Democratic base and w/left leaning Independent.

Both struggle even more when 3rd parties candidates are added to the mess.

One area I agree with the polling companies, Trump and Biden might be the most unpopular and least favorable presidential candidates in post-modern history beating out 2016. Both are coming up against their gale force headwind, indictments, and age respectively.

Makes me wonder what % of undervotes will be in 2024 and where they occur. Undervotes hurt HRC in 2016, Undervotes >1.5% can make all the difference in the swing states.

It's pretty clear for President Biden to shore up the 18-25 if not 29 votes as well as Muslim-American he will need to break with Bibi over Gaza and condition any more support on championing (emphasis championing rather than the platitude) a Palestinian state.

He is in deep doo-doo with Black males and can't see him making any headway there. And by waiting until the end of his 3rd year to address the border, he will take a haircut with the Latin community. Is hurting him in AZ. Might cost the electoral votes, 1 or 2 House seats, and a US Senate seat and puts NM in play. The border is a pebble in the pond, going to have a ripple effect far beyond the SW border states due to its impact in urban/suburban areas in blue states.

I disagree with the talking heads claiming by the Rs rejecting a legislative fix President Biden and Ds can turn the tables on the Rs. Voters want the border fixed period. President Biden and his Adm. best come up with every conceivable way to use EOs to put band aids on all the holes. And his 2024 campaign must include what he will do at the border if reelected. One measure is to partner w/Latin American countries to build their own border fencing and patrol infrastructure. Security has to have multiple layers. Going all in on one layer is stoopid. That also means cutting back on direct aid to those nations and funneling it into a fence/wall. Better do it soon because Climate Change is impacting South/Latin America more so than it is here.

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This solidifies my own opinion that Maga hard line Trumpers are not for the most part intellectual giants because if they were just a little bit smart they'd be able to comprehend the obvious, that Haley would have a much better chance than Trump if she were the nominee. Hopefully she wouldn't win the presidency but I'd be more nervous about her running against Biden, In fact if she was a Democrat and dropped her typical Republican viewpoints I'd vote for her simply because she is smart anf a go-getter.

I am not surprised that college educated independants will not vote for Trump. same with many young people. people, If you listen to the interviews with the Maga crowd they are more of the ilk of the Jan 6 ruffians, crude, but not necessarily violent like them, although some easily could be. That is why I am surprised that people like Speaker Johnson fell for Trump's con-man spiel. These guys are highly educated and lawyers, But of course many are not fooled by him but are betting on him to secure their own future. Apparently in private conversations they do discuss among themselves how obnoxious and dumb Trump is but then go down ro his castle to lick his boots and kiss his ass,

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Reminds me of historical reports of court sycophants fighting over emptying the Sun King's bowl of urine.

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"But some of these voters told the Times they couldn’t vote for Biden because the Democrats 'are worse,' indicating they may just sit out the election if Trump and Biden are the nominees."

Buttons for these people: "I'm sitting it out." or "Join me --- sit down." And maybe some cafes give free java to people wearing those buttons." In short, affirm the "sit out" --- make "sitting out" cool.

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"Parking my rump, not voting for Trump."

Getting America Real Again.

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